Fractal approach in modelling of earthquakes

A model for an earthquake simulation is proposed with the use of a fractal approach. Multiple generation and coalescence of shear faults in stochastic brittle media (modelled as a 2d lattice) are considered to be a source of seismicity. Dynamics of local failure events are governed by accumulation of shear defects, described in terms of continuum damage mechanics. Fractal tree structure is used as an analogue for a stress redistribution process. Energy release, caused by the non-uniform failure, is studied for a non-conservative case. Effect of various types of rocks' properties stochasticity on energy release dynamics is analysed with a utilization of multifractal formalism. The latter is shown to be an additional method for seismicity characterization.     

A weak approximation of stochastic time domain electromagnetic response of a conductive permeable sphere

Time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) response of a conductive permeable sphere is a main topic for good understanding and in developing past studies for detection and discrimination of buried metallic objects. Stochastic differential equation model is a valuable tool for stimulating real experience. In this paper, according to an Itô integral, we have obtained a weak approximation of stochastic TDEM response of permeable and nonpermeable sphere. We have used the deterministic solution of TDEM response of conductive permeable sphere by changing one of the variables that have been obtained from the boundary conditions of problem to random variable. By adding white noise to random variable and using stochastic integral, we have displayed stochastic time domain response of conductive permeable sphere. The Itô integral includes a factor that shows infirmity and intensity of noise which has been simply considered constant. Accordingly, we have showed the effect of noise for magnetic and nonmagnetic spheres. Numerical results from step and impulse response of TDEM have shown that the amount of this factor is different for the two types of spheres.     

考虑荷载作用的沥青混合料冻融损伤特性研究

针对寒区道路工程中的沥青路面冻融受荷损伤问题,借助细观损伤力学和宏观统计随机损伤模型,建立了冻融与荷载耦合作用下的沥青混合料损伤本构关系和损伤演化方程;探讨了冻融循环次数、应变和油石比影响下的沥青混合料冻融受荷损伤劣化机理。研究表明：冻融循环疲劳损伤累积和荷载作用于带有微缺陷粗集料界面附近产生的应力集中加剧了沥青混合料总损伤劣化程度。冻融循环20次之后,损伤度变化不大,基本趋于恒定;相同损伤程度时,应变值随冻融次数的增加而减小。油石比对总损伤影响显著,当油石比相对较小时,以冻融破坏为主;当油石比较大时,以受荷破损为主。研究成果可为寒区沥青路面抗冻设计、性能评价及养护维修时机选择提供参考。     

土方开挖粘塑性模糊随机损伤机理研究

以基坑工程为例分析了开挖损伤演变的模糊随机性并建立了广义非确定性空间O：Б（s,f）。提出了初始损伤有效张量的概念模型,在“损伤源汇”概念基础上提出了模糊衰减模型,构造了粘塑性模糊随机损伤增量方程并实现了基坑开挖过程的模糊随机损伤模拟。在线性算子基础上提出了模糊随机损伤矢量极限值{Ωu},进而建立了以损伤有效张量为基础的粘塑性模糊随机损伤本构模型及粘塑性非线性模糊随机数值方法。在粘塑性模糊随机损伤有限元基础上建立了粘塑性模糊随机损伤变化率方程,实现了对基坑开挖过程中模糊随机损伤演变发展的全面模拟,完成了模糊随机卸荷损伤模型的构建。     

Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan,Turkey

Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Then, existing building stock is classified into specific building types represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom models. The response statistics of these models are evaluated through nonlinear time history analysis with the simulated ground motions. Fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived and discussed. The study area is Erzincan (Turkey), which is located on a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments in the conjunction of three active faults as right-lateral North Anatolian Fault, left-lateral North East Anatolian Fault, and left-lateral Ovacik Fault. Erzincan city center experienced devastating earthquakes in the past including the December 27, 1939 (Ms = 8.0) and the March 13, 1992 (Mw?=?6.6) events. The application of the proposed method is performed to estimate the spatial distribution of the damage after the 1992 event. The estimated results are compared against the corresponding observed damage levels yielding a reasonable match in between. After the validation exercise, a potential scenario event of Mw?=?7.0 is simulated in the study region. The corresponding damage distribution indicates a significant risk within the urban area.     

Construction of variance-based metamodels for probabilistic seismic analysis and fragility assessment

Finite element models used in industrial studies for seismic structural reliability analysis are in general very complex and computationally intensive. This is due to the important number of degrees of freedom as well as due to advanced damage models and failure modes that have to be simulated. In consequence, reliability studies are feasible only by means of simpler surrogate models able to represent essential physics. Then the choice of an accurate surrogate or metamodel is crucial for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis. The construction of a pertinent metamodel is however a not simple task when random uncertainties, not explained by the model parameters, have to be accounted for. This is the case for transient seismic analysis where the ground motion, an intrinsically random phenomena, is modelled by a stochastic process that cannot be entirely described by a set of parameters. In this paper, we construct a versatile metamodel based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. The ANOVA decomposition provides a convenient framework allowing both for parametric uncertainties and for stochastic variability introduced by seismic load. We then compute fragility curves and perform sensitivity analysis.     

Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective

Landslide impacts on infrastructure and society in the Federal Republic of Germany are associated with damage costs of about US$300 million on annual average. Despite the large overall losses due to widespread landslide activity, there is a lack of historical impact assessments, not just for Germany’s low mountain areas but those of entire Central Europe as well. This paper is a collection of three case studies from Germany that seek a better understanding of landslide impacts and their economic relevance at local and regional level. The first case study investigates damage types and mitigation measures at a representative landslide site in ways that support to gain insight into historical hazard interactions with land use practices. This case history is followed by a case study dealing with fiscal cost impacts of landslide damages for an example city and the highway system of the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany. In addition to a cost-burden analysis for affected public budgets, an overview of the principles of disaster financing in landslide practice is given. The third case study is focused on the conflicts of urban development in hazard areas, with an economic approach to balancing safety and public welfare interests. Each case study is based on historical data sets extracted from Germany’s national landslide database. This paper presents three different case studies that in combination are a first step towards assessing landslide impacts in integrated perspective.     

海上船噪声干扰的压制技术

船噪声干扰是海上地震数据中的主要干扰源之一,由于大多数情况下具有侧面波的性质,常规去线性规则干扰的处理技术无法将其压制。采用空间域转换的方法,将共炮点域中的规则船干扰,转换为共偏移距域内的随机干扰,用现今流行的随机干扰压制技术,就可以达到压制船干扰的目的。文中给出了压制船干扰的实例。     

Stability of algorithms for a two domain natural convection problem and observed model uncertainty

Two numerical algorithms are presented that couple a Boussinesq model of natural heat convection in two domains, motivated by the dynamic core of climate models. The first uses a monolithic coupling across the fluid–fluid interface. The second is a parallel implementation decoupled via a partitioned time stepping scheme with two-way communication. These new approaches are both proven to be unconditionally stable, a property not shared by traditional climate codes that use one-way coupling. Another critical property for a robust climate code is the reliability of the computation with respect to noise in unknown input parameters. This effect is measured by adding stochastic noise to two nonlinear coupling terms, involving momentum and heat transfer. Using an uncertainty quantification method known as stochastic collocation, we empirically measure the resulting variance in average surface temperature for each numerical model, including a third variant that employs one-way coupling for comparison. Throughout the duration of the simulation, we observe the smallest increase in variance using the monolithic algorithm and the largest increase using the one-way coupled algorithm.     

水文序列小波分析中分解层数选择方法

小波分解层数的合理选择是水文序列小波分析结果的重要影响因素。在详细分析和定量描述不同类型噪声的能量分布规律的基础上,依据水文序列中确定成分和噪声成分的能量分布规律的差异,提出了一个小波分解层数选择方法。通过对不同类型模拟序列和不同特性实测水文序列进行分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。结果表明:序列组成、噪声含量等因素对小波分解层数的选择结果有较大影响,但噪声类型对小波分解层数选择结果影响较小;应用该方法确定小波分解层数的同时,还可以有效地识别和区分各层上是确定成分或是噪声成分,进而可为序列模拟预测提供依据。由于所提方法基于水文序列不同成分变化特性的差异建立,因此有较好的物理依据且分析结果合理可靠。     

基于四阶累积量的同相轴自动拾取方法

针对强随机噪声干扰情况下地震勘探资料中同相轴无法正确拾取的问题,提出了基于四阶累积量的同相轴自动拾取方法。该方法利用四阶累积量进行时间延迟估计,避免了相关高斯噪声的影响;同时在参考道的选择上,以一定的间隔设置多个参考道,减少了同相轴拾取过程中的累积误差。理论模型计算表明:该方法相对于互相关方法,对相关高斯噪声有更强的抑制能力,信噪比达到-5 dB。在实际资料应用中,拾取了与同相轴有关的参数：同相轴位置,该参数为地震资料的属性分析和精确定量解释提供了依据。     

Image Filtering by Factorial Kriging—Sensitivity analysis and application to Gloria side-scan sonar images

Factorial Kriging (FK) is a data- dependent spatial filtering method that can be used to remove both independent and correlated noise on geological images as well as to enhance lineaments for subsequent geological interpretation. The spatial variability of signal, noise, and lineaments, characterized by a variogram model, have been used explicitly in calculating FK filter coefficients that are equivalent to the kriging weighting coefficients. This is in contrast to the conventional spatial filtering method by predefined, data-independent filters, such as Gaussian and Sobel filters. The geostatistically optimal FK filter coefficients, however, do not guarantee an optimal filtering effect, if filter geometry (size and shape) are not properly selected. The selection of filter geometry has been investigated by examining the sensitivity of the FK filter coefficients to changes in filter size as well as variogram characteristics, such as nugget effect, type, range of influence, and anisotropy. The efficiency of data-dependent FK filtering relative to data-independent spatial filters has been evaluated through simulated stochastic images by two examples. In the first example, both FK and data-independent filters are used to remove white noise in simulated images. FK filtering results in a less blurring effect than the data-independent fillers, even for a filter size as large as 9 × 9. In the second example, FK and data-independent filters are compared relative to the extraction of lineaments and components showing anisotropic variability. It was determined that square windows of the filter mask are effective only for removing Isotropie components or white noise. A nonsquare windows must be used if anisotropic components are to be filtered out. FK filtering for lineament enhancement is shown to be resistant to image noise, whereas data-independent filters are sensitive to the presence of noise. We also have applied the FK filtering to the GLORIA side-scan sonar image from the Gulf of Mexico, illustrating that FK is superior to the data-independent filters in removing noise and enhancing lineaments. The case study also demonstrate that variogram analysis and FK filtering can be used for large images if a spectral analysis and optimal filter design in the frequency domain is prohibitive because of a large memory requirement.     

Pumas as taphonomic agents: A comparative analysis of actualistic studies in the Neotropics

Puma (Puma concolor) taphonomic action on vertebrate assemblages in the Neotropics is described and analyzed. Actualistic information based on the literature and observations are presented from a comparative perspective, to determine some general patterns and, particularly, the ranges of variation in this felid's action. Information available for the Nearctic region is considered for comparative purposes. Particular attention is given to cases departing from the more general trends, such as one case in Mendoza (Argentina) in which the intensity of bone damage is outstanding. Variation in puma taphonomic action in the Neotropics is increasingly apparent as new studies are carried out, and knowledge on the range of this variation and the conditions under which it occurs needs to be deepened by future research.     

混沌理论及在水科学中的应用与存在的问题

在简要介绍表征系统混沌特征常用方法的基础上,认为混沌理论在水科学中的应用主要集中在水文时间序列性质的判定和非线性预测模型研究上,并就这两方面的国内外研究进展进行了综述。通过对其应用中存在的主要问题:延迟时间的确定、数据量大小、噪声等进行分析和讨论,认为水科学问题中混沌的假设是合理的。但对于任何有限长度和受噪声干扰的时间序列来说,严格判定其相空间是确定性系统还是随机系统几乎是不可能的,纯粹的混沌和纯粹的随机都只是数学上的一种理想状态。因此,对于所研究的水科学问题是否存在混沌现象,仅采用单一的方法所取得的结论,不能作为判定依据,而仅表明可能存在混沌特征。所以有必要采用多种研究方法,综合刻划某一水科学问题中的混沌迹象,判定该序列是以混沌成分为主还是以随机性成分为主。提出分形上的混沌动力系统以及混沌与神经网络相结合的方法,可为水科学问题的研究能提供一些新的思路。     

去噪技术在地震资料处理中的应用

讨论了目前提高地震资料信噪比的方法及应用技术。通过对原始地震记录中普遍存在的噪声进行了分析。对于无规则噪声，应采用f-x域随机噪声衰减或多项式拟合的办法；对于有规则噪声，倾角滤波或FK滤波手段则更为有效。强调了在去噪过程中选择去噪参数的重要性。阐明了同相叠加技术也是一种提高地震资料信噪比的有效手段。总之。针对不同的噪声，应采用不同的去噪方法。实际地震资料处理表明，上述几种去噪方法对提高地震资料的信噪比是行之有效的。     

Standard cumulative semivariograms of stationary stochastic processes and regional correlation

The standard cumulative semivariograms (SCS), obtained analytically from the currently employed stationary stochastic processes, provide a basis for the model identification and its parameter as well as regional correlation estimations. The analytical solutions for different stationary stochastic processes such as independent (IP), moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA (1,0,1) processes give rise to different types of SCSs which can be expressed in terms of the autocorrelation structure parameters only. The SCSs of independent and MA processes appear as linear trends whereas other type of processes have SCSs which are nonlinear for short distances but become linear at large distances. Irrespective of the stationary stochastic process type the linear portions of SCSs have unit slopes. The vertical distance between these linear portions and that of the IP cumulative semivariogram (CS), provide an indicator for measuring the regional correlation. In the case of stationary processes, the straight line portions of any CS are parallel to each other. Hence, it is possible to identify the model from the sample CS. Finally, necessary procedures are provided for the model parameters estimation. The methodology developed, herein, is applied to some hydrochemical ions in the groundwater of the Wasia aquifer in central part of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

基于小波域KL变换的探地雷达信号处理

探地雷达目标回波信号通常会受到串扰(或直达波)、随机噪声等的干扰,致使目标信号难以分辨。利用小波分析的时频局部化特性和多道探地雷达记录中直达波、目标回波信号以及随机噪声等的不同相关性,对探地雷达记录进行小波分解,得到多频段的小波剖面,再对不同频段的小波剖面做KL变换,实现了串扰抑制。通过实验数据和现场实测数据验证了该方法的有效性。      

基坑垮塌的离散元模拟及冗余度分析

目前基于构件设计的基坑设计理论使得很多支护体系缺乏必要的冗余度,并导致了众多基坑事故。将离散元方法引入到基坑垮塌模拟和冗余度研究中,提出了基于局部破坏的冗余度分析模拟方法。进而以探究支撑端部连接对支护结构冗余度的影响为例,对两种连接情况的基坑的破坏过程进行了模拟,对其中的连续破坏现象进行了分析,并将模拟结果与实际工程进行了对比。结果表明,支护体系冗余度的提高可以有效地抵抗连续破坏的发生,防止基坑在局部损伤情况下,由一种形式的破坏引发其他形式的破坏,由局部破坏导致整体崩溃。另外,模拟结果也验证了离散元法在基坑破坏模拟中的适用性与可行性,为类似地下工程的破坏模拟和基坑冗余度的深入研究提供了参考。     

Determining flood hazard patterns through a combined stochastic–deterministic approach

A sound, evidence-based hazard mapping requires the analysis of stochastic processes taking place at critical configurations (e.g., bridges, levees) in order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities. Here, we discuss an approach aiming to support an enhanced determination of flood hazard patterns by identifying within alluvial fans and river corridors two main types of spatial domains based on the predictability of their dynamics, i.e., stochastic and quasi-deterministic domains. The former represents critical configurations whose dynamic evolution (e.g., clogging by large wood, failure due to breaching) cannot be realistically specified by deterministic models, whereas the latter refers to the part of the system where the flood propagation can be computed with sufficient precision and accuracy by hydrodynamic models. The applicability of the proposed approach is discussed on the basis of a case study in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (Italy).     

Estimation of Vertical Continuous Stochastic Parameters from Seismic Reflection Data

This paper presents a scheme to invert reflected seismic wave fields for vertical spatial statistics of the Earth’s continuous stochastic velocity distribution. The forward model is based on a single scattering theory, where a seismogram is modeled as a convolution of a source wavelet and stochastic reflectivity, which obeys a von Kármán autocorrelation function. Tests with synthetic data indicate that the method presented here recovers vertical characteristic length from seismic reflection data that is similar to that of the original velocity model; however, the inversion does not reliably recover the Hurst exponent, ν. The input wavelet’s power spectrum is a free parameter in the inversion and is estimated as well, but is band-limited relative to the original source wavelet. Noise degrades the quality of the estimates of the stochastic parameters such that the recovered stochastic parameters are biased according to the power spectrum of the noise.