Buckling loads of fully embedded vertical piles

Determination of critical buckling loads of columns in a medium which offers resistance to lateral deflections depend on:

• (a) Length of the pile, L.
• (b) Flexural stiffness of the pile, EI.
• (c) Stiffness of the soil, K, and
• (d) Boundary conditions of the pile, both at the top and the tip.

In this paper, solutions for buckling loads have been obtained in closed form by energy methods for fully embedded vertical piles for boundary conditions, pinned top-pinned tip, fixed top-fixed tip, and a linear variation of soil stiffness. The effects of pile length, soil stiffness, and boundary conditions on buckling loads and mode of buckling have been studied for pile lengths up to 24 m with EI of 477 tm², K₀ [A] from 0 to 2000 t/m² and N_h [B] from 0 to 2000 t/m³.     

Development of engineering geology in western United States

Geologic concepts and scientific-technical guidance for the planning-design and construction of engineered works was recognized in Europe by the 1800s and by the early 1900s in North America. This early geologic knowledge and experience provided the rudimentary principles that guided practitioners of the 19th century in serving the emerging projects in western United States. Case studies review the scientific-technical lessons learned and the legacy of geologic principles established in the planning and construction of major civil, mining, and military engineered works in the western states. These contributions to GeoScience knowledge and engineering geology practice include:

• •Tunnels and aqueducts across active fault zones, beneath young volcanic features, groundwater-charged faults, and land subsidence mitigation.
• •Controversial foundation design, Folsom and Auburn dams, Golden Gate Bridge.
• •Protective underground construction chambers, safety dependent geologic setting.
• •Geologic mapping as database management leasing, maintenance railroad trackway.
• •Causeway Great Salt Lake, geo-risks calculated, mitigated ‘as-constructed’.
• •Nuclear powerplants seismic design.
• •Urban Land-Use, on-going processes, acceptable geo-risks.
• •Dwelling Insurance, insuree's responsibilities.
• •Selecting technique/method to mitigate risk, preferably based on extensive database, evaluation of characteristics and historical origin adverse features/conditions that constitute a geo-risk.

     

Seismic patterns in Northern China and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution of the medium strong earthquakes before the large events

In this paper, the seismic pattern in Northern China from 30 ° to 42 ° N latitude and 104 ° to 125 ° E longitude, and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution before large events are presented. The results suggest that:

• 1.(1) the earthquakes in the region are mainly located in the orthogonal curvilinear network formed by the seismic belts;
• 2.(2) the larger earthquakes (M ⩾6) occurred mainly in the nodal regions of this grid:
• 3.(3) the strike of the fracture planes of the earthquakes coincided with the directions of the seismic belts;
• 4.(4) the pattern of medium strong earthquakes (M ⩾ 4.7) prior to thirteen large earthquakes (M⩾ 7) are analysed to be of three types:
  • 4.1.(a) mainly arranged along the two intersecting belts,
  • 4.2.(b) randomly distributed,
  • 4.3.(3) forming seismic gaps.

A theoretical basis and rules for drawing the orthogonal grid is presented, and an idea for the prediction of the sites of future earthquakes in Northern China is suggested.     

Ore mineralization related to geological evolution of the Karkonosze–Izera Massif (the Sudetes,Poland) — Towards a model

The Karkonosze–Izera Massif is a large tectonic unit located in the northern periphery of the Bohemian Massif. It includes the Variscan Karkonosze Granite (about 328–304 Ma) surrounded by the following four older units:

• -Izera–Kowary (the Early Paleozoic continental crust of the Saxothuringian Basin),
• -Ještĕd (the Middle Devonian to Lower Viséan sedimentary succession deposited on the NE passive margin of the Saxothuringian Terrane), out of the present study area,
• -Southern Karkonosze (metamorphosed sediments and volcanics filling the Saxothuringian Basin), out of the present study area,
• -Leszczyniec (Early Ordovician, obducted fragment of Saxothuringian Basin sea floor).

The authors present a genetic model of ore mineralization in the Karkonosze–Izera Massif, in which ore deposits and ore minerals occurrences are related to the successive episodes of the geological history of the Karkonosze–Izera Massif:

• -formation of the Saxothuringian Basin and its passive continental margin (about 500–490 Ma)
• -Variscan thermal events:
  • -regional metamorphism (360–340 Ma)
  • -Karkonosze Granite intrusion (328–304 Ma)
• -Late Cretaceous and Neogene-to-Recent hypergenic processes.

The oldest ore deposits and ore minerals occurrences of the Karkonosze–Izera Massif are represented by pyrite and magnetite deposits hosted in the Leszczyniec Unit as well as by magnetite deposit and, presumably, by a small part of tin mineralization hosted in the Izera–Kowary Unit. All these deposits and occurrences were subjected to the pre-Variscan regional metamorphism.Most of the Karkonosze–Izera Massif ore deposits and occurrences are related to the Karkonosze Granite intrusion. This group includes a spatially diversified assemblage of small ore deposits and ore mineral occurrences of: Fe, Cu, Sn, As, U, Co, Au, Ag, Pb, Ni, Bi, Zn, Sb, Se, S, Th, REE, Mo, W and Hg located within the granite and in granite-related pegmatites, in the close contact aureole of the granite and within the metamorphic envelope, at various distances from the granite. Assuming world standards, all these deposits are now uneconomic. Various age determinations indicated that ore formation connected with the Karkonosze Granite might have taken place mostly between about 326 and 270 Ma.The last ore-forming episode in the Karkonosze–Izera Massif is related to hypergenic processes, particularly important in the northern part of the massif, in the Izera–Kowary Unit where some uranium deposits and occurrences resulted from the infiltration of ore solutions that originated from the weathering of pre-existing accumulations of uranium minerals. A separate problem is the presence of oxidation zones of ore deposits and occurrences, both the fossil and the recent.A full list of ore minerals identified in described deposits and occurrences of the Karkonosze–Izera Massif together with relevant, key references is presented in the form of an appendix.     

Mineralogy and petrology of alkaline granophyric xenoliths from the Thorsmörk ignimbrite,southern Iceland

The Thorsmörk ignimbrite, southern Iceland, contains a suite of granophyre xenoliths displaying magmatic or high-temperature sub-solidus mineral assemblages. These granophyres are consanguineous with the erupting comenditic magma. Four types of mineral assemblages are distinguished:

• 1.(A) oligoclase, edenitic hornblende, salitic pyroxene, magnesian biotite, magnetite and sphene;
• 2.(B) oligoclase, manganoan to sodic ferro-augite, fayalite, richterite, ilmenite and magnetite;
• 3.(C) anorthoclase, ferrohedenbergite to aegirine hedenbergite, ilmenite, magnetite and (riebeckite);
• 4.(D) cryptoperthite, aegirine hedenbergite to (aegirine), aenigmatite, arfvedsonite, ilmenite and magnetite.

Geothermometry shows that the xenoliths have crystallized between 900°C and 500°C at moderate oxygen fugacities, just above the FMQ buffer. It is further demonstrated that a hot vapour phase heavily charged with sodium and halogens, played a major role in the late sub-solidus crystallization of the different types.     

Aridification — Climate change in South-Eastern Europe

Climatic change in SE Europe can be characterized by the term aridification, which means increasing semi-aridity, manifested in an increase of mean annual temperature and at the same time in a decrease in the yearly precipitation.The paper deals with research results obtained within the framework of the MEDALUS II project (funded by the Commission of the European Communities). The project had the following objectives:

• 1.(i) Assessment of the impact of global change on the climate of the investigated area, including possible future climates.
• 2.(ii) Physical processes of aridification, including studies of groundwater level change, soil moisture profile dynamics, soil development, vegetation change and soil erosion.
• 3.(iii) Land use change, involving research on present land use and suggestions for the future.

Various methods were applied with respect to the different research objectives.

• 1.(i) Statistical analysis of climatic oscillations and computer runs of climatic scenarios,
• 2.(ii) Analysis of ground water data, mapping and analysis of soils and vegetation, assessment of present and future soil, and
• 3.(iii) Land capability assessment through ranking environmental conditions according to the demands of the most widely grown arable crops in Hungary.

According to our results i) the average annual warming during the last 110 years was +0.0105 °C, and precipitation decreased by 0.917 mm/year; ii) a decline of −2 to −4 m in the annual mean groundwater level can be detected in the most sensitive areas, with gradual lowering of the water table in alkali ponds; complete desiccation of some of them severs the direct contact between groundwater and salt-affected soils, the solonchak soil dynamics cease, helophile and hygrophile plant associations disappear, and consequent changes in the soil erosion regime are likely to lead to disastrous erosion in the future; iii) the climatic changes induce a transformation in land use from arable crops to plantations, starting with orchards.     

Control of syntectonic erosion and sedimentation on kinematic evolution of a multidecollement fold and thrust zone: Analogue modeling of folding in the southern subandean of Bolivia

Several analogue modeling studies have been conducted during the past fifteen years with the aim to discuss the effects of sedimentation and erosion on Foreland Fold and Thrust Belt, among which a few have analyzed these processes at kilometric scale (Malavieille et al., 1993; Nalpas et al., 1999; Barrier et al., 2002; Pichot and Nalpas, 2009). The influence of syn-deformation sedimentation and erosion on the structural evolution of FFTB has been clearly demonstrated. Here, we propose to go further in this approach by the study of a more complex system with a double decollement level. The natural study case is the Bolivian sub-Andean thrust and fold belt, which present all the required criteria, such as the double decollement level. A set of analogue models performed under a CT-scan have been used to test the influence of several parameters on a fold and thrust belt system, among which: (i) the spatial variation of the sediment input, (ii) the spatial variation of the erosion rate, (iii) the relative distribution of sedimentation between foreland and hinterland. These experiments led to the following observations:

• 1. The upper decollement level acts as a decoupling level in case of increased sedimentation rate: it results in the verticalization of the shallower part (above the upper decollement level), while the deeper parts are not impacted.
• 2. Similarly, the increase of the erosion rate involves the uplift of the deeper part (below the upper decollement level), whereas the shallower parts are not impacted.
• 3. A high sedimentation rate in the foreland involves a fault and fold vergence reversal, followed by a back-thrusting of the shallower part.
• 4. A high sedimentation rate in the hinterland favours thrust development toward the foreland in the shallower parts.

     

The geothermal gradient map of Central Tunisia: Comparison with structural,gravimetric and petroleum data

Five hundred and fifty temperature values, initially measured as either bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) or drill-stem tests (DST), from 98 selected petroleum exploration wells form the basis of a geothermal gradient map of central Tunisia. A “global-statistical” method was employed to correct the BHT measurements, using the DST as references. The geothermal gradient ranges from 23° to 49°C/km. Comparison of the geothermal gradient with structural, gravimetric and petroleum data indicates that:

• 1.(1) the general trend of the geothermal gradient curves reflects the main structural directions of the region,
• 2.(2) zones of low and high geothermal gradient are correlated with zones of negative and positive Bouguer anomalies and
• 3.(3) the five most important oil fields of central Tunisia are located near the geothermal gradient curve of 40° C/km.

Such associations could have practical importance in petroleum exploration, but their significance must first be established through further investigation and additional data.     

Porphyry deposits of the Urals: Geological framework and metallogeny

Most of the Cu (± Mo,Au) porphyry and porphyry-related deposits of the Urals are located in the Tagil-Magnitogorsk, East-Uralian Volcanic and Trans-Uralian volcanic arc megaterranes. They are related to subduction zones of different ages:

• (1)Silurian westward subduction: Cu-porphyry deposits of the Birgilda-Tomino ore cluster (Birgilda, Tomino, and Kalinovskoe) and the Zeleny Dol Cu-porphyry deposit;
• (2)Devonian Magnitogorsk eastward subduction and the subsequent collision with the East European plate: deposits and occurrences are located in the Tagil (skarn-porphyry Gumeshevskoe etc.) and Magnitogorsk terranes (Cu-porphyry Salavat and Voznesenskoe, Mo-porphyry Verkhne-Uralskoe, Au-porphyry Yubileinoe etc.), and probably in the Alapaevsk-Techa terrane (occurrences of the Alapayevsk-Sukhoy Log cluster);
• (3)Late-Devonian to Carboniferous subduction: deposits located in the Trans-Uralian megaterrane. This includes Late-Devonian to Early Carboniferous Mikheevskoe Cu-porphyry and Tarutino Cu skarn-porphyry, Carboniferous deposits of the Alexandrov volcanic arc terrane (Bataly, Varvarinskoe) and Early Carboniferous deposits formed dew to eastward subduction under the Kazakh continent (Benkala, etc.).
• (4)Continent-continent collision in Late Carboniferous produced the Talitsa Mo-porphyry deposit located in the East Uralian megaterrane.

Porphyry mineralization of the Magnitogorsk megaterrane shows an evolving relationship from gabbro-diorite and quartz diorite in the Middle Devonian (Gumeshevskoe, Salavat, Voznesenskoe) to granodiorite-plagiogranodiorite in the Late Devonian (Yubileinoe Au-porphyry) and finally to granodiorite in the Carboniferous (Talitsa Mo-porphyry) with a progressive increase in total REE, Rb and Sr contents. This corresponds to the evolution of the Magnitogorsk terrane from a volcanic arc which gave place to an arc-continent collision in the Famennian.     

Great earthquakes,seismicity gaps and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalaya plate boundary

Analysis of the space-time patterns of seismicity in the Himalaya plate boundary has established the existence of three seismic gaps:

• 1.(1) The “Kashmir gap” lying west of the 1905 Kangra earthquake;
• 2.(2) the “Central gap”, situated between the 1905 Kangra and the 1934 Bihar earthquakes;
• 3.(3) the “Assam gap” between the 1897 and 1950 Assam earthquakes.

This study has shown that the above great earthquakes were preceded as well as followed by long periods (⩾ 19 years) of decreased levels of seismic activity in the epicentral regions. Remarkable decrease in the seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed in the western half of the Central gap as well as in the Assam gap. Local seismic investigation in the Assam gap confirms this feature and the seismicity suggests the existence there of an asperity.The local seismic investigations in Garhwal Himalaya have shown that the small earthquakes are confined to the upper 6–8 km of the crust and may have strike-slip motions. These earthquakes occur in a region where teleseismically recorded events were few.     

Evaluation of the thermal regime of the Valles Caldera,New Mexico,U.S.A., by downward continuation of temperature data

Downward continuation of temperature data from 73 wells extending to depths of 250 ft (76 m) provides constraints on the thermal regime of the Valles Caldera. Surface-temperature gradient data and bottom-hole temperatures were used as constraints in the downward continuation. Three factors were found to control the shallow thermal regime:

• 1.(1) heat associated with the main geothermal source;
• 2.(2) local topography; and
• 3.(3) west-southwest groundwater flow. Although the well density is relatively high, comparison with the topography shows that the wells are not randomly distributed and tend to be clustered in valleys. Many details in the thermal regime appear to be related to groundwater drainage in these valleys. Temperature gradients and temperatures generally increase in the same direction as the regional drainage of the caldera suggesting a long-wavelength, shallow component to this regional gradient trend. Inversion of gradient and temperature data show additional deep heat input in the west-southwest sector of the caldera which appears to be spatially associated to the youngest volcanism. A previously reported northeast displacement of the main heat source from the surface anomaly has not been confirmed.

     

Influence of upwelling Zechstein sulphate on the concentration and isotope signature of sedimentary sulphides in a fluvioglacial sand aquifer

Very low concentrations of total S, mainly sedimentary sulphides, were quantitatively extracted from Quaternary sands of the Elbe Basin, using HNO₃, Br₂ and HCl, to distinguish 3 aquifer zones:

• •an upper aerobic section, containing low concentrations (only a few ppm) of non-sulphidic S compounds,
• •the central and lower part of the aquifer, dominated by ³⁴S-depleted sedimentary Fe sulphides, formed by reduction of infiltrating SO₄, derived from groundwater recharge, and
• •the lowest 5–10 m of the aquifer, containing high concentrations of ³⁴S-enriched sulphides.

The latter originated from dissolved Zechstein SO₄, which was reduced during upwelling through the organic-rich Tertiary aquiclude. H₂S and HS⁻ reacted and precipitated with Fe and other metal ions shortly after migration into the C_org-poor Quaternary aquifer. The sulphides yield valuable information concerning the ascent of confined saline solutions from isolated Zechstein evaporites inside the “Mühlberger Graben”, which is covered by Cenozoic sediments and whose extension and boundaries are therefore not well defined. Only a few locations, close to faults and geological windows, show deep-water admixture sufficiently strong to cause visible changes in hydrochemistry and isotopic ratios of SO₄ and DIC directly above the base of the Quaternary. Sulphides showing different origins may possibly be used in other areas to provide information concerning underlying geology and hydrodynamics.     

Sedimentmikrobioiogie und ihre geologischen Aspekte

The influence of bacteria on recent sediments was first discussed in 1885, whenFischer andGazert were discussing the cycle of substances in the sea as well as in sediments. The influence of bacteria on the cycling of C, N, S, P in recent sediments and the open sea was soon accepted by marine geologists. Nevertheless, only very few experiments have, so far, shown more than qualitative and quantitative data collection in various restricted areas. This is due to the extensive and complicated chain of reactions on the surface of sediments and in the sediment itself. Biologists are asking for the amount of organic and inorganic matter which is reworked and released to the sea. Geologists usually emphasize the amount of substances which are sedimentated. For biologists the sediment is only part of their dominant ecosystem (the sea). While, for geologists the “sea” is only furnishing and influencing their first range system sediment. How much then, are bacteria involved in the slow process of conversion from a recent sediment to sedimentary rocks? Bacteria influence more or less strongly and to a more or less advanced degree of diagenesis:

1. The organic matter in sediments and the final form in which it is found.
2. The anions CO₃ ^2?, NO₃ ^?, OH-, SO₄ ^2?, PO₄ ^3? as well as their intermediate stages and the resulting minerals.
3. The cations H⁺, NH₄ ⁺, Ca²⁺, Fe²⁺, Fe³⁺, and a series of metals which are dissolved or precipitated by microbial activities as for example Fe, Mn, Cu, Ag, V, Co, Mo, Ni, U, Se, Zn.
4. The equilibrium of silicium. At least diatoms and radiolarians are precipitating silica, while other reactions which have been proved are not yet shown to influence marine sediments.
5. p_H-values and oxidation-reduction potentials of the sediment.
6. The composition of interstitial waters.
7. The surface activity of minerals, since bacteria are growing especially on particle surfaces.
8. The energy content and temperature of sediments.
9. The texture of fine grained sediments.
10. The fossilization of microfauna, macrofauna and trace fossils.

Sedimentology and mineralogy may also influence the bacterial activities and the composition of the microflora within sediments. Methods and problems of sediment microbiology are demonstrated by some investigations in the German Bay (North Sea) in connection with the first German Underwater Station (UWL). Ecological work proves to be difficult in various directions. The main cause of difficulties in microbiological work on sediments are the great variety of different factors influencing the environment (microbial, chemical, physical, mineralogical), the difficulty of taking representative samples, and the small amount of data which has been collected so far.     

A quantitative fluorescence technique for evaluating thermal maturity: Instrumentation and examples

Fluorescence microscopy is useful not only for identifying most of the oil-prone organic matter (macerals) in sedimentary rocks and coals but also for assessing their thermal maturities (ranks). This report introduces a violet-light excitation system which induces more than one order of magnitude stronger fluorescence intensity that the commonly used UV-light excitation system. The red/green quotient from violet-light excited fluorescence, Q_v, of sporinite can be easily measured using this system. Several examples using coal and cuttings samples are presented to demonstrate the use of this technique for evaluating the thermal maturities of coals and sedimentary rocks.From the results of our studies we conclude that:

• 1.(1) Violet-light excited fluorescence from sporinites can be routinely measured to assess thermal maturity.
• 2.(2) Spectral (Quantitative) fluorescence technique is useful for evaluating thermal maturity when samples are poorly polished or deficient in vitrinite.
• 3.(3) Visual (Strew-mounted) kerogen slides can not be used for fluorescence measurements unless a non-fluorescent mounting medium is used.

     

Measurements and interpretations of36Cl in groundwater,Milk River aquifer,Alberta, Canada

The³⁶Cl/Cl ratios of 12 groundwater samples from the Milk River aquifer were determined by accelerator mass spectrometry. Using known Cl concentrations,³⁶Cl concentrations were deduced. Approximately linear relations were observed between the logarithm of the³⁶Cl concentration, the Cl concentration, and the distance from the recharge area along two flow paths. The results are discussed in two approaches:

• (1)in an interpretation of the linear relation between logarithm of the³⁶Cl concentration and Cl concentration excluding and includingin situ production of³⁶Cl;
• (2)in a diffusion model. The increase of the Cl concentration with the distance from the recharge area is considered to be due to diffusion of Cl from the underlying confining Colorado shale to the aquifer.

Flow velocities ranging between 0.04 and 0.14 m/a, and ages of the groundwater between 0.6 and 2 Ma are obtained at a distance of 80 km from the recharge area.     

In situ recovery,an alternative to conventional methods of mining: Exploration,resource estimation,environmental issues,project evaluation and economics

This paper discusses the history and application of in situ recovery (ISR) to a wide variety of metals. The increasing application of ISR may provide an important method to address a key issue for the mining industry, namely the cost of production.ISR transfers a significant proportion of hydrometallurgical processing to mineralised bodies in the subsurface to directly obtain solutions of metals of interest. As a result, there is little surface disturbance and no tailings or waste rock are generated at ISR mines. However, for ISR to be successful, deposits need to be permeable (either naturally or artificially induced), and the metals of interest readily amenable to dissolution by leaching solutions in a reasonable period of time, with an acceptable consumption of leaching reagents.The paper discusses the following aspects of ISR:

• •History. ISR for uranium was introduced in 1959 in the USA, and subsequently applied in many countries over last 50 years, particularly in the USSR. The share of uranium mined by ISR reached 51% of world production in 2014, and the capacity of ISR mining of uranium is now comparable with that from conventional uranium mines.
• •Commodities. A review of the use of ISR for mining other commodities, namely copper, gold, nickel, scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, and vanadium. ISR for copper was introduced in the 1970s and there were several successful natural tests and mines. Scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, and vanadium were mined in pilot tests as by-products of uranium extraction. ISR of gold, copper, nickel, rare earth elements and scandium has been successfully developed over recent years. The paper discusses other commodities that have potential to be mined using ISR.
• •Applicability of ISR is addressed by a discussion of the features of mineralisation that need to be considered during different stages of ISR projects. Permeability,¹ hydrogeological conditions and selective leachability are the most critical parameters for ISR, and must be defined in the evaluation and exploration stages. Morphology and depth of mineralisation, thicknesses and grades, distribution of mineralisation, presence of aquicludes, and environmental conditions are also important factors for ISR projects.
• •Environmental issues. ISR allows the extraction of mineralisation with minimal disturbance to existing natural conditions. In contrast to underground and open pit mining, there are smaller volumes of mining and hydrometallurgical effluents that require management. Clearly contamination of groundwater by ISR reagents is the critical aspect requiring management during an ISR operation. Control of leaching in ISR operations and various ways of cleaning aquifers are discussed in the paper.
• •Economics. ISR operations deliver a range of benefits including lower CapEx costs for mine development, processing plant and infrastructure. ISR enables production to start at low capital cost and then a modular increase in production, as well as very flexible production capacity. The costs of ISR for different commodities (copper, gold, nickel, scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, vanadium) are discussed, with economic parameters for uranium production from ISR and conventional provided for comparison. The CapEx, OpEx and common cut-off grades for ISR for different commodities are discussed.
• •Exploration, resource estimation and the development of ISR projects require a number of different approaches compared to conventional mining projects. These criteria and the necessary methodology for resource estimation for ISR projects are described in the article.

     

An alternative view of the Bayesian probabilistic prediction of strong shocks in the Hellenic Arc

A Bayesian discrete distribution, as developed by Ferraes (1985), is applied to predict the inter-arrival times for strong shocks in the Hellenic Arc on the basis of nine samples of shocks with seismotectonic locations very different from those used by Ferraes. The results suggest an alternative view of the Bayesian probabilistic prediction of strong earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc, and can be summed up as follows:

• 1.(a) Maximum final Bayesian probabilities of various inter-arrival times in a given seismotectonic segment are very dependent on the data set used and particularly on its time length.
• 2.(b) When using this method to determine the time intervals during which large shocks are to be expected in the Western and Eastern Hellenic arcs, it is very difficult to estimate intervals of less than a decade. The determination of the occurrence time, even in the long-term sense, remains the major problem in the prediction of these shocks.
• 3.(c) Bayesian probabilities in conjunction with seismicity observations indicate that large intermediate depth earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc are long overdue. Shocks of this sort can be expected to occur in the next few years.

It is also pointed out that although Bayesian-type predictions may be useful for engineering purposes, they are not a suitable basis for making specific predictions or taking special precautions.