Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Expressions for the Global Gravimetric Moho Modeling in Spectral Domain

We apply a newly developed numerical method to improve the Moho geometry by the implementation of gravity data. This method utilizes expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling derived in a frequency domain. Methods for a spectral analysis and synthesis of the gravity field and crust density structures are applied in the gravimetric forward modeling of the consolidated crust-stripped gravity disturbances, which have a maximum correlation with the (a priori) Moho model. These gravity disturbances are obtained from the Earth’s gravity disturbances after applying the topographic and stripping gravity corrections of major known anomalous crust density structures; in the absence of a global mantle model, mantle density heterogeneities are disregarded. The isostatic scheme applied is based on a complete compensation of the crust relative to the upper mantle density. The functional relation is established between the (unknown) Moho depths and the complete crust-stripped isostatic gravity disturbances, which according to the adopted isostatic scheme have (theoretically) a minimum correlation with the Moho geometry. The system of observation equations, which describes the relation between spherical functions of the isostatic gravity field and the Moho geometry, is defined by means of a linearized Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. The Moho depths are determined based on solving the gravimetric inverse problem. The regularization is applied to stabilize the ill-posed solution. This numerical procedure is utilized to determine the Moho depths globally. The gravimetric result is presented and compared with the seismic Moho model. Our gravimetric result has a relatively good agreement with the CRUST2.0 Moho model by means of the RMS of differences (of 3.5 km). However, the gravimetric solution has a systematic bias. We explain this bias between the gravimetric and seismic Moho models by the unmodelled mantle heterogeneities and uncertainties in the CRUST2.0 global crustal model.     

Significance of basic and ultramafic rock inclusions in the basalts of Canary Islands

This paper deals with the mineralogical, textural and chemical features of the dunite, peridotite, pyroxenite and gabbroic inclusions present in the Quaternary basalts of the Canary Islands. The mineralogical composition, structure and texture of the inclusions show that most of them have been formed as crystal cumulates from a nonalkaline basaltic magma in the earlier stages of its fractional crystallization. There are no co-genetic relationships between the inclusions and the host basalts, since the latter have a very strong alkaline-olivine character, although there are also some types with tholciitic aflinities. The study of the data leads to the conclusion that these inclusions can be considered as xenoliths from the basic and ultrabasic complexes that form the substratum and which outcrop in some of the Canary Islands. Attention is called to the fact that in many other volcanic zones of the world there has been a previous emplacement of basic and ultramafic layered complexes and is the question opened whether the association between stratiform-complexes and active basaltic volcanism is more frequent than has been assumed up to now.     

Variation trends in basaltic rocks of the canary islands

More than two hundred new analyses of basaltic rocks from the Canary Islands are presented. The available data show that the earlier successions have similar variation trends throughout the archipelago; these trends represent all the intermediate types between basic differentiates (oceanites, ankaramites) and more salic differentiates (trachy-basalts, hawaiites). In the more recent volcanic series, the study shows that there is a magmatic diversification with different variation trends in the Eastern than in the Central Canary Islands. In the latter the alkaline character becomes stronger in the successive periods of volcanic activity which have been established in each island. In the Eastern islands the basaltic evolution is, on the contrary, towards basaltic rocks with tholeiitic affinities.     

Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model

A global climate prediction system(PCCSM4) was developed based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), and an initialization scheme was designed by our group. Thirty-year(1981–2010) one-month-lead retrospective summer climate ensemble predictions were carried out and analyzed. The results showed that PCCSM4 can efficiently capture the main characteristics of JJA mean sea surface temperature(SST), sea level pressure(SLP), and precipitation. The prediction skill for SST is high, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is dominant. Temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted Ni?o3.4 index and observed Ni?o3.4 index over the 30 years reach 0.7, exceeding the 99% statistical significance level. The prediction of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa zonal wind and SLP shows greater skill than for precipitation. Overall, the predictability in PCCSM4 is much higher in the tropics than in global terms, or over East Asia. Furthermore, PCCSM4 can simulate the summer climate in typical ENSO years and the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon well. These preliminary results suggest that PCCSM4 can be applied to real-time prediction after further testing and improvement.     

Voluminous acid volcanism in the Busheveld Complex: A review of the Rooiberg Felsite

The 2.1 b.y. old Rooiberg Felsite roofs and is intruded by the mafic layered rocks and granites of the Bushveld Complex. The felsite unit, which locally exceeds 5 km in thickness and may represent an originally erupted volume of more than 300,000 km³, is dominated by rhyolitic to dacitic lavas with minor pyroclastic and sedimentary rock types. Volcanic rocks of more mafic composition occur towards the base of the sequence. The Rooiberg episode essentially terminated the volcanic activity in the Transvaal basin and heralded the emplacement of the Bushveld Complex. Despite the close spatial and temporal relationships between the Rooiberg Felsite and the Bushveld Complex, the precise nature of the petrogenetic link is obscure. Chemical analyses of felsite have been variously interpreted to suggest cyclic differentiation along a comagmatic trend or to demonstrate anomalous enrichment in SiO₂. Several characteristics delineate the Rooiberg Felsite as a possibly unique occurrence of rhyolitic magmatism, notably the immense volume of the unit, the marked preponderance of lavas over pyroclastic types, and the unusually great thickness and lateral extent of the flows. The thesis that the Rooiberg Felsite represents a shock-produced, meteorite-impact melt cannot be supported on the available evidence.     

The drift of zooplankton in a lake-outlet (Glatt) in a day-night-rhythm depending from the water level

To give an indication on the influence of the dynamics and behavior of lake plankton on the seston composition in the outlet, four 24-hour sampling sessions were made in the Greifensee (situated near Zürich, Switzerland) and its outlet (River Glatt). The most important crustacean species studied wereEudiaptomus gracilis, Cyclops abyssorum, Cyclops vicinus, Mesocyclops leuckarti andDaphnia spp.Leptodora kindtii was found during one sampling only. No evidence of shore avoidance was found. The vertical migration in the lake especially in the upper layer (0–6 m) is believed to have an influence on the amount of plankton which is flushed into the outlet. Although the composition and concentration of the plankton at the deepest point of the lake have been known, no accurate predictions on the quality of the plankton close to shore or in the outlet were possible.     

Rapakivi texture from the O’Leary Porphyry,Arizona (U.S.A.)

The rhyodactic O’Leary Porphyry which forms the Pleistocene (0.233±0.37 m.y.) volcanic domes of O’Leary Peak and Darton Dome in the San Francisco Volcanic Field (northern Arizona, U.S.A.) contains sanidine phenocrysts with oligoclase mantles (rapakivi texture). Rapakivi texture occurs worldwide in silicic rocks of many ages and has been attributed to various igneous and metamorphic processes. The O’Leary Porphyry contains both mantled and unmantled sanidine (both are Or_63–69 Ab_30–36An₁), oligoclase and quartz phenocrysts, labradorite (An₅₃Ab₄₅Or₂) and kaersutite xenocrysts and andesite xenoliths. The compositional range of oligoclase is the same (An_11–26Ab_70–80Or_r–10) for the rapakivi mantles, the oligoclase phenocrysts, and the oligoclase crystals poikilitic within sanidines. Most mantles are discontinuous. The sanidine appears to have been resorbed prior to mantling. Experimental melting studies on the O’Leary Prophyry show that, for a 15 wgt.% water system, plagioclase crystallized prior to sanidine and quartz crystallized last. The O’Leary Porphyry, although inhomogeneous, plots on a Q-Or-Ab-An diagram well within the plagioclase stability field. Poikilitic plagioclases within sanidines further support crystallization of plagioclase prior to sanidine in the O’Leary Porphyry. Exsolution of a ternary feldspar to form a plagioclase mantle is the most commonly accepted igneous theory of rapakivi texture formation but has been eliminated as the origin of the O’Leary Porphyry rapakivi. Petrologic models by Tuttle and Bowen and by Stewart are rejected for the O’Leary rapakivi because of inconsistencies with the O’Leary occurrences. Two theories are viable for the O’Leary rapakivi texture. First, is a decrease in water vapor pressure which would enlarge the plagioclase stability field possibility causing mantling of metastable sanidines. The second and preferred theory is that of an addition of sodium and calcium by basification (chemical assimilation without melting) of the xenoliths within the O’Leary Porphyry. This would move the bulk composition of the melt into the plagioclase field possibly resulting in crystallization of plagioclase on sanidine crystals. Diffusion of sodium and calcium from the xenoliths to sanidine would result in mantling only those crystals near to the xenoliths. Later, convection would result in distribution throughout the melt of rapakivi, unmantled sanidines, and xenolithic kaersutite as is seen in the porphyry. Basic xenoliths are extremely common in rapakivi-bearing rocks. Those within the O’Leary Porphyry are andesitic and show resorption, and in some areas of O’Leary Peak itself, have been drawn out into schlieren.     

Scenarios of water resources development in Poland up to 2030

Due to the fact that water management responds to changing natural and socio-economic conditions its future perspective, depending on multiple and variable factors, is difficult to predict using traditional prognostic methods. The examined hypothesis shows that the scenario development process is a useful method for long-term strategic planning in the water management sector. Research was completed on the basis of expert assessments and panel discussions and structured as a scenario for the development process. The IPCC Emission Scenarios constitute the future development context. The results show that this predictive method is effective. Sensitivity of the results of the applied techniques of development scenarios shows a need for further research.     

Assessment of genotoxic and humoral immune system alterations in silica exposed workers from pottery industries in South India

Chemicals, especially silica, have been suspected to cause genetic alterations in pottery industry workers. The present study aims to analyze the frequency of chromosomal aberrations (CA), micronucleus (MN) and DNA damage (comet assay) in the peripheral blood lymphocytes and the immunological alterations workers chronically exposed to silica and in control subjects. In our study, 50 silica exposed workers and 35 control subjects were recruited and silica level was measured by respirable dust and respirable quartz concentrations of badge dosimeter. The serum immunoglobulins (IgM, IgG, and IgA) of all the subjects were measured by using ELISA method. The individuals exposed to silica have a significant increase in the frequency of CA, MN and the total DNA damage (p < 0.05). Immunoglobulin elevation on silica exposed workers was statistically significant (p < 0.05) on comparison with their respective controls. Investigation of the smoking and alcohol habitats coupled with silica exposure in exposed and control subjects represents alcohol consumption and smoking as additional risk factors and must be avoided. Multiple linear regression analysis obtained for CA, MN and comet assay confirm these tests as biomarkers for silica exposed pottery workers. Some confounding factors also showed significant influence on exposed subjects. These results indicate the mutagenic risk in the working environment has a high probability of association with the silica dust exposure in pottery industries. Nevertheless, the present study will create awareness and public concern not only among the silica exposed workers but also to the welfare of their progeny.     

Multiple-point geostatistical simulation of dykes: application at Sungun porphyry copper system,Iran

Variogram-based methods are not capable of capturing high (>2) order statistics since the variogram measures the relationship between two points at a time only. Multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) has brought new insights into many geological modeling problems. The application of MPS methods has been well documented in realizing complex geological patterns. These methods have often been used in reservoir characterization since their advent in recent decades. The frequent non-linear behaviors of geologic continuity are not limited to reservoirs, but mineral deposits bear complicated formations in many cases. Relying on the power of MPS methods and considering the complexity of geological scenarios in mineral deposits, we have applied MPS in the modeling of mineral deposits. A training image (TI) is produced using geological data from upper horizons of a porphyry copper ore deposit which have been mined out during the previous mining operations. In this study, the SNESIM algorithm has been used. A number of realizations are produced using this multiple-point geostatistical method. Extensive validation steps are performed considering the TI as the reference model. These validations first show that the TI is representative for the domain under study and also illustrates some degrees of similarity between the TI and the realizations. Despite simplifications made to the problem, the application of MPS in mineral deposit modeling still faces many challenges.     

The composition of basaltic lavas from Bayuda,Sudan and their place in the cainozoic volcanic history of north-east Africa

Six new analyses of young basaltic rocks from the Bayuda field show the predominant rock types to be strongly undersaturated basanites and nepheline trachybasalts. Both types are believed to represent magmas of deep-seated origin. Similar rocks are widely distributed in north-east Africa but mildly alkaline to tholeiitic basalts were erupted along the eastern margin of the continent in early and late Cainozoic times, whereas along the Tripoli-Tibesti zone to the west mildly alkaline basalts were probably confined to the early Tertiary. The Tripoli-Tibesti zone was one of uplift and strongly tensional tectonics in the late Mesozoic and early Cainozoic, and at this time may have been a line of potential lithospheric rifting, but a period of quiescence followed and resurgence of activity in the late Cainozoic produced weaker tensional structures and more strongly alkaline basic magmas. The region between these two main zones of activity was characterized throughout by intermittent alkaline volcanicity and weak tectonism. Neverthless, fracture zones which apparently controlled the volcanicity are beginning to be recognized in this area. It is argued that African volcanic activity is related to linear, rather than circumscribed, areas of mantle activity. Possible connections with epeirogenic movements within the Alpine orogenic belt appear to have been neglected in the debate on the causes of African igneous activity.     

On the ability of Moho reflections to affect the ground motion in northeastern Italy: a case study of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

It has been observed that post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho discontinuity could play a relevant role on the ground motion due to medium to strong size earthquakes away from the source. Although some studies investigated the correlation between the Moho reflections amplitudes and the damage in the far field, little attention was given to the frequency content of these specific phases and their scaling with magnitude. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in northern Italy, recorded by velocimetric and accelerometric networks, is here exploited to investigate Moho reflections and multiples (SmSM). A single station method for group velocity-period estimation, based on the multiple filter technique, is applied to strong motion data to detect SmSM. Amplitude and frequency scaling with magnitude is defined for earthquakes from \(\hbox {Mw}=3.9\) to \(\hbox {Mw}=5.9\) . Finally, the ability of SmSM to affect the ground motion for a maximum credible earthquake within the Po plain is investigated by extrapolating observed engineering parameters. Data analysis shows that high amplitude SmSM can be recognized within the Po plain, and at the boundaries between the Po plain and the Alpine chain, at epicentral distances larger than 80 km, in the period range from 0.25 to 3 s and in the group velocity window from about 2.6 to 3.2 km/s. 5 % damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at different periods (0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s), and Housner intensities, are obtained from data characterized by large amplitude SmSM. A scaling relationship for both pseudo-spectral accelerations and Housner intensities is found for the earthquakes of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence. \(\hbox {I}_{\mathrm{MCS}}\) from VII to VIII is estimated, as a result of SmSM amplitude enhancement, at about 100 km for a maximum credible earthquake ( \(\hbox {Mw}=6.7\) ) in the Po plain, showing that moderate to high damage cloud be caused by these specific phases.     

PALEOMAGIA: A PHP/MYSQL database of the Precambrian paleomagnetic data

Most paleomagnetic applications require a precise, rationally organized and up-todate catalogue or database of paleomagnetic results worldwide. These include reconstructions of continents, calculations of the Apparent Polar Wander Paths (APWPs) or paleolatitude drift curves, testing the Geocentric Axial Dipole (GAD) model, studies of geomagnetic paleosecular variation or reversal asymmetries, comparison of coeval results obtained from different types of rocks, estimation of inclination shallowing in sedimentary rocks and understanding the delay in remanence acquisition caused by slow cooling in large intrusions. For this purpose, various databases, such as the Global Paleomagnetic Database (GPMDB), and the Magnetics Information Consortium Database (MagIC) have been generated. This paper presents a new relational database (PALEOMAGIA) where 3278 entries of Precambrian data have been split geographically, sorted according to age and rock types and ranked using a revised version of the Van der Voo grading scheme. The latest geochronologic information is included wherever available. Significant effort has been put to the retrieval and archiving of data published in the last decade, which are virtually nonexistent in GPMDB. Here we present the database and its browser-based user interface from a scientific and a technical point of view.     

Assessing the Current Evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet by Means of Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

The present study utilises different satellite and ground-based geodetic observations in order to assess the current evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Satellite gravimetry data acquired by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment are used to derive ice-mass changes for the period from 2003 to 2012. The inferred time series are investigated regarding long-term, seasonal and interannual variations. Laser altimetry data acquired by the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) are utilised to solve for linear and seasonal changes in the ice-surface height and to infer independent mass-change estimates for the entire GIS and its major drainage basins. We demonstrate that common signals can be identified in the results of both sensors. Moreover, the analysis of a Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign network in West Greenland for the period 1995–2007 allows us to derive crustal deformation caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and by present-day ice-mass changes. ICESat-derived elastic crustal deformations are evaluated comparing them with GPS-observed uplift rates which were corrected for the GIA effect inferred by model predictions. Existing differences can be related to the limited resolution of ICESat. Such differences are mostly evident in dynamical regions such as the Disko Bay region including the rapidly changing Jakobshavn Isbræ, which is investigated in more detail. Glacier flow velocities are inferred from satellite imagery yielding an accelerated flow from 1999 to 2012. Since our GPS observations cover a period of more than a decade, changes in the vertical uplift rates can also be investigated. It turns out that the increased mass loss of the glacier is also reflected by an accelerated vertical uplift.     

The figure of the earth — Changes in concepts

The search for the Figure of the Earth is rooted in the age-old wonder about the world we live in. The ancient mythical notions have developed, under the tutelage of Greek systematic thought, into specific questions of the shape and size of the Earth. The history of these questions, now spanning more than two millenia, shows a continuous refinement in formulation, as each bona fide answer prompted refined measurements which, in turn, started a new round of problems. The change in concept of what one was looking for was, and still is, closely connected with the technical capability and its potential for further development. This change in concept is traced here from ancient times to the present throungh some of its milestones: Anaximander's partly invisible celestial sphere and Pythagoras' spherical Earth; Eratosthenes' exemplary combination of astronomy and land surveying for the dual purpose of determining the size of the spherical Earth and making a map of the habitable world; the identical dual purpose followed by the Académie Royale des Sciences in the 17th century, but on a more sophisticated technical level; the challenge to the spherical concept by Newton's gravitational theory and the absorption of that theory into a wider concept of the Figure of the Earth; the acknowledgment of the irregular geoid by Gauss, Bessel, and Helmert, and the changed significance of the ellipsoid; Heiskanen's and Vening Meinesz' ‘Basic Hypothesis of Geodesy’ concerning the hydrostatic equilibrium of the Earth, and O'Keefe's contradiction on the basis of satelite data; the dream of global surveys come true through satellite geodesy and the accompanying inclusion of the outer gravity field of the Earth into the concept of its Figure; and lastly, the present and projected capability of high precision measurement and the widening of the concept of the Figure of the Earth from 3-dimensional rigidity to 4-dimensional time-dependence.     

Land–Water Boundary Treatment for a Tsunami Model With Dimensional Splitting

The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model adapted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for tsunami forecasting operations is praised for its computational efficiency, associated with the use of splitting technique. It will be shown, however, that splitting the computations between \(x\) and \(y\) directions results in specific sensitivity to the treatment of land–water boundary. Slight modification to the reflective boundary condition in MOST caused an appreciable difference in the results. This is demonstrated with simulations of the Tohoku-2011 tsunami from the source earthquake to Monterey Bay, California, and in southeast Alaska, followed by comparison with tide gage records. In the first case, the better representation of later waves (reflected from the coasts) by the modified model in a Pacific-wide simulation resulted in twice as long match between simulated and observed tsunami time histories at Monterey gage. In the second case, the modified model was able to propagate the tsunami wave and approach gage records at locations within narrow channels (Juneau, Ketchikan), to where MOST had difficulty propagating the wave. The modification was extended to include inundation computation. The resulting inundation algorithm (Cliffs) has been tested with the complete set of NOAA-recommended benchmark problems focused on inundation. The solutions are compared to the MOST solutions obtained with the version of the MOST model benchmarked for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program in 2011. In two tests, Cliffs and MOST results are very close, and in another two tests, the results are somewhat different. Very different regimes of generation/disposal of water by Cliffs and MOST inundation algorithms, which supposedly affected the benchmarking results, have been discussed.     

Petrochemistry of quaternary pumiceous pyroclastic products in southern Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

Pumiceous pyroclastic products are present as flows and falls at several stages of the evolution of the southern Guadeloupe volcanic island. An understanding of this volcanism had to rely on detailed petrochemical data of these products to complement similar data for effusive rocks so as to yield complete stratigraphical coverage. On the other hand most pumiceous rocks are more or less conspicuousily banded suggesting that mixing phenomena occurred to different degrees in their genesis. Three major classes of pumiceous products are found: (1) the Axial Chain deposits (2.0–0.5 My) are characterized by An90, 75-55 + En55 + Wo42En37 + Usp35-37 ± Fo68 ± Hble, SiO₂ 60%, SiO₂/Th 35.6, and La/Th 3.9. Banded samples have components that differ in evolution indices by about 50%; (2) the Bouillante Chaine pyroclastics (0.3–0.1 My) consist of scattered deposits with variable mineralogical and geochemical compositions that seem to have erupted from a number of small eruptive centers. Qz-dacitic pumice is common with An90, 70-45 + En66-56 + Usp32-38 + Ilm94 + Hble ± Wo40-42En40-42, SiO₂ 62%, SiO₂/Th 22.9, and La/Th >4. Mixed pumice samples have highly contrasted evolution indices differing by up to 120%; (3) the Pintade pumice flows and falls correspond to the major pyroclastic event (approx. 10 km³) in the southern Basse Terre area. They are characterized by An85-70 + En66-56 + Usp32-37 ± Wo42En42, SiO₂/Th 18.7-22?6, and La/Th 3.0-4.0. Banded pumice lumps are scarce and show slight compositional contrasts; differences in evolution indices do not exceed 38%. Axial and Bouillante chain pyroclastics and Grande Découverte volcano pumice respectively, form two different families in trace element plots. Minor elements in pyroxenes also are distinctive. These trends are similar to those obtained for effusive rocks and define comagmatic series. Major and trace element data for the separated components of inhomogeneous pumice in each formation always plot in the corresponding series. These chemical discriminants can be used to attribute samples of unknown provenance to a given volcanic ensemble. An inverse relationship between differences in evolution indices in inhomegeneous pumice and the volume of any single eruptive sequence is noted. This is an indication that pumiceous pyroclastic rocks were erupted from a zoned magma chamber. We favor an interpretation where zonation is produced by influx of less envolved magma in superficial differentiated chambers which is a direct cause for eruption.     

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data

Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.