2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件

2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据,本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面,与地面AO...     

2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件（英文）

2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据,本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面,与地面AO指数和NAO指数相一致,欧亚大陆和北美地面气温均比气候态偏暖,在欧亚大陆的一些地区,2020年1月和2月的气温甚至偏高了10K.2020年2月以来北极臭氧出现了2004年以来的最低值,2020年3-4月60°-90°N的平均臭氧柱总量比气候态偏低了80DU.     

The relation between the spring reconstruction of stratospheric circulation and tropospheric processes in March–June

Statistical relationship between the dates of the spring reconstruction of the stratospheric circulation (10 hPa) and frequency of Dzerdzeevskii elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM) over the Northern Hemisphere in March-June is studied. It is found that, after early (March) and late (May) stratospheric reconstruction, the frequency substantially differs, which can be useful for long-term forecasting.     

Role of sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013

Climate Dynamics - During the 2012–2013 winter, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predominated, resulting in a cold winter over Europe and northern Asia punctuated by...     

The extremely late freezing of the European Russia’s rivers in the winter 2006–2007 and climate warming

In this paper, anomalies of freezing of the European Russia’s rivers in 2006–2007 are considered. Multiyear observation data are used for analysing of trends in time series, which express terms of the first floating ice appearance in the European territory of Russia. It is shown that, in the end of the 20th and beginning of 21st centuries, a tendency of later freezing of rivers in this territory was detected. Linear equations that describe temporal trends were obtained for various rivers. Three variants of terms of the first floating ice appearance until 2020 were computed in accordance with the basic climatic scenarios. It was shown that changes in the climatologic norms are significant for all the scenarios. In comparison with the present values, future changes in the norms can reach 5 through 15 days.     

The Extreme Mei-yu Season in 2020: Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Cooperative Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans※

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in eastern China during summer 2020 suffered the strongest mei-yu since 1961. In this work, we comprehensively analyzed the mechanism of the extreme mei-yu season in 2020, with focuses on the combined effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the cooperative influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 2020 and from a historical perspective. The prediction and predictability of the extreme mei-yu are further investigated by assessing the performances of the climate model operational predictions and simulations. 　 It is noted that persistent MJO phases 1?2 during June?July 2020 played a crucial role for the extreme mei-yu by strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. Both the development of La Ni?a conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean exerted important influences on the long-lived MJO phases 1?2 by slowing down the eastward propagation of the MJO and activating convection related to the MJO over the tropical Indian Ocean. The spatial distribution of the 2020 mei-yu can be qualitatively captured in model real-time forecasts with a one-month lead. This can be attributed to the contributions of both the tropical Indian Ocean warming and La Ni?a development. Nevertheless, the mei-yu rainfall amounts are seriously underestimated. Model simulations forced with observed SST suggest that internal processes of the atmosphere play a more important role than boundary forcing (e.g., SST) in the variability of mei-yu anomaly, implying a challenge in quantitatively predicting an extreme mei-yu season, like the one in 2020.     

The variabilities of convective precipitation and large-scale precipitation in southern China for the period 1980–2020

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of convective precipitation (CP) and large-scale precipitation (LSP) in southern China during...     

The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China:2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Ni?a after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Ni?a prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Ni?a development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.     

The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic

In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Ni?a event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid?high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Ni?a)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Ni?a prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.     

Impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Western Pacific (WP) pattern in the following winter through Arctic sea ice and ENSO: part I—observational evidence

Climate Dynamics - On the basis of a 51-year statistical analysis of reanalysis data, we propose for the first time that the positive phase of the Western Pacific (WP) pattern in the winter is...     

The Role of Land–sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part I: Land–sea Distribution

A number of AGCM simulations were performed by including various land–sea distributions (LSDs), such as meridional LSDs, zonal LSDs, tropical large-scale LSDs, and subcontinental-scale LSDs, to identify their effects on the Asian monsoon. In seven meridional LSD experiments with the continent/ocean located to the north/south of a certain latitude, the LSDs remain identical except the southern coastline is varied from 40 ° to 4 ° N in intervals of 5.6° . In the experiments with the coastline located to the n...     

On Monin–Obukhov Scaling in and Above the Atmospheric Surface Layer: The Complexities of Elevated Scintillometer Measurements

In scintillometry Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is used to calculate the surface sensible heat flux from the structure parameter of temperature (C_T²){(C_{T^2})} . In order to prevent saturation a scintillometer can be installed at an elevated level. However, in that case the observation level might be located outside the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) and thus the validity of MOST questioned. Therefore, we examine two concepts to determine the turbulent surface sensible heat flux from the structure parameter at elevated levels with data obtained at 60-m height on the Cabauw tower (the Netherlands). In the first concept (MOSTs) C_T²{C_{T^2}} is still scaled with the surface flux, whereas in the second (MOSTl) C_T²{C_{T^2}} is scaled with the local sensible heat flux. The C_T²{C_{T^2}} obtained from both concepts is compared with direct observations of C_T²{C_{T^2}} using a sonic anemometer/thermometer. In the afternoon (when the measurement height is located within the ASL) both concepts give results that are comparable to the directly observed values of C_T²{C_{T^2}} . In the morning (data outside the ASL), our data do not unequivocally support either of the two concepts. First, the peak in C_T²{C_{T^2}} that occurs when the measurement height is located in the entrainment zone disqualifies the use of MOST. Second, during the morning transition, local scaling shows the correct pattern (zero flux and a minimum in C_T²{C_{T^2}}) but underestimates C_T²{C_{T^2}} by a factor of ten. Third, from the best linear fit a we found that the slope of MOSTl gave better results, whereas the offset is closer to zero for MOSTs. Further, the correlation between the direct observations and MOST-scaled results is low and similar for the two concepts. In the end, we conclude that MOST is not applicable for the morning hours when the observation level is above the ASL.     

Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific during 1982–2020:Features and Possible Causes

The westward migration of tropical cyclone(TC) activity has been identified in the western North Pacific(WNP),but the related features and causes remain elusive. Here, based on the best track data from China, Japan, and the US,and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data in 1982–2020, we investigate characteristics of the westward migration of the WNP TC activity with various metrics, and reveal possible causes for the migration of TC tracks through analyzing its seasonality and dependence on environmental...     

Soil–vegetation–atmosphere interaction over a hilly forest in the southern Huaihe River Basin: Long-term field experiment and preliminary analysis of basic observations 淮河流域南部丘陵森林地区土壤-植被-大气相互作用:长期野外试验观测的初步分析

To improve the understanding of the CO₂ exchange and the cycling of energy and water between the land surface and atmosphere over a typical hilly forest in southeastern China, a long-term field experimental observatory was established in Huainan, Anhui Province. Here, the authors briefly describe the three parts of ongoing research activities: the environmental monitoring at the site, the meteorological observations on a high tower, and particularly the intensive measurement of soil–vegetation–atmosphere interaction on a lower tower. Specifically, the diurnal variation of basic meteorological variables on a typical clear day (13 July 2018), and their temporal variation in the first three months of the low tower's operation (4 June to 31 August 2018), and in combination with simultaneous data from the high tower, are analyzed. Results show that the data demonstrate reasonable variabilities, and the variables exhibit significant diurnal variation, characteristics of summer values, and considerable differences in summer months. The daily and monthly average albedos above the forest canopy were both 0.13. The daily average soil CO₂ concentration was 1726 and 4481 ppm at 2 and 10 cm, respectively. The soil CO₂ concentration changed with soil volumetric moisture contents, but showed a weak correlation with soil temperature in summer 2018. As the observatory continues to run and data continue to be collated, further investigation of the long-term variation of monsoon characteristics should be performed in the future. The experiment is useful in ecosystem and atmosphere interaction research, as well as for the development and evaluation of climate models, in the transitional climate zone of the Huaihe River basin.摘要本文简要介绍了包括三部分观测的安徽淮南长期野外试验观测站, 特别是土壤-植被-大气的集中观测, 对小塔运行前三个月 (2018年6月至8月) 的数据, 并结合同一时段大塔获得的数据, 进行了初步分析.结果表明这些资料有合理的变化特征, 日变化和夏季值特征显著, 各月份间气象变化有明显差异.土壤水分和温度受降雨影响, 在不同的下垫面条件下表现出不同的变化.土壤CO₂日平均浓度在2 cm和10 cm处分别为1726和4481 ppm.2018年夏季土壤CO₂浓度随土壤体积含水量的变化而变化, 但与土壤温度呈弱相关.     

Comparative research on visibility and light extinction of PM2.5 components during 2014–17 in the North China plain: 2014-2017年华北平原PM2.5组分消光与能见度对比研究

Severe air pollution with visibility deterioration has long been a focus in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, concentration and light extinction analysis of PM_2.5 chemical components were carried out from 2014 to 2017 to study the pollution characteristics in Baoding, a case city of the NCP. The annual average concentration of total PM_2.5 components showed a declining trend, decreasing by 11 µg m⁻³ (water-soluble inorganic ions), 23 µg m⁻³ (carbonaceous aerosols), and 1796 ng m⁻³ (inorganic elements). Contributing 82.9% to the concentration of total ions, the dominant components, NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, and SO₄²⁻ became the main pollutants in PM_2.5 pollution. Based on the IMPROVE algorithm, the average reconstructed PM_2.5 mass concentration was 93 ± 69 µg m⁻³ during the observation period. Meanwhile, the light extinction coefficients were 373.8 ± 233.6 M m⁻¹, 405.3 ± 300.1 M m⁻¹, 554.3 ± 378.2 M m⁻¹ and 1005.2 ± 750.3 M m⁻¹, in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, and organic matter were the largest contributors to light extinction, accounting for a total of 55%–77% in the four seasons. The b_sca (light scattering by particles and gases) reconstructed from PM_2.5 components (Rb_sca) and the b_sca converted from visibility (Vb_sca) were compared to evaluate the performance of the IMPROVE algorithm, revealing a high correlation coefficient of 0.84. The high values of Vb_sca were underestimated while the low values were overestimated, as determined through comparison with the one-to-ne line. Especially, when Rb_sca > 1123 M m⁻¹ (corresponding to < 2.0 km, approximately), Vb_sca was underestimated by 17.6%. PM_2.5 mass concentration and relative humidity also had an impact on the estimation.摘要华北平原大气污染与低能见度状况一直是人们关切的问题.本文通过分析2014 - 2017年PM_2.5化学成分的浓度和消光效果, 研究了华北平原典型城市保定市的大气污染特征.结果表明, PM_2.5组分的年均浓度显示下降趋势, 水溶性无机离子,碳质气溶胶和金属元素分别减少了11 µg m⁻³, 23 µg m⁻³和1796 ng m⁻³.NH₄⁺,NO₃⁻和SO₄²⁻是PM_2.5污染的主要污染物, 三者之和占总离子浓度的82.9%.基于IMPROVE方程对细颗粒物进行重构, 在观测期间PM_2.5质量浓度平均为93 ± 69 µg m^−3, 春季,夏季,秋季和冬季的消光系数分别为373.8 ± 233.6 M m⁻¹,405.3 ± 300.1 M m⁻¹,554.3 ± 378.2 M m⁻¹和1005.2 ± 750.3 M m⁻¹.硫酸铵,硝酸铵和有机物对消光的贡献最大, 不同季节下占比达55% ~77%.通过PM_2.5组分进行重构, 利用IMPROVE算法计算得到Rbsca, 用能见度测量值转换得到Vbsca, 二者具有较高的相关性 (r²=0.84) ;但存在Vbsca的高值被低估, Vbsca的低值被高估的现象;特别是当Rbsca > 1123 M m⁻¹ (对应能见度约小于2.0 km) 时, Vbsca的值被低估了17.6%.高浓度PM_2.5和高湿度对IMPROVE算法结果有显著的影响.