Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Ni?a in 2022/23?

The Northern Hemisphere(NH) often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Ni?a winters. In 2022, a third-year La Ni?a event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022. Under such a significant global climate signal, whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed, despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric ...     

Mesoscale Diagnosis of a Torrential Rainfall Caused by a Tropical Depression

On August 5, 2001, Shanghai was struck by a torrential rainfall due to the passage of a tropical depression (TD). The rainfall intensity has been the strongest in recent 50 years. In this paper, a set of mesoscale re-analyses data and the planetary boundary layer observation from a wind profiler are used to understand the possible mechanism of such a heavy rain. Results show that the outburst of a southerly jet in the lower atmosphere triggered the explosive development of cyclonically vertical vorticity in the region with steep potential temperature surfaces in front of the TD; while the cyclonic vorticity increased notably at higher levels due to the small atmospheric vertical stability of westerly currents in the vicinity of Shanghai. The simultaneous sharp development of cyclonic vorticity at different levels should be the main cause for the torrential rainfall.     

乌伊岭近37a的气候变化分析

本文利用乌伊岭气象站1974-2010年的气象观测资料,对乌伊岭区气温和降水的气候平均值以及其它要素进行了统计分析。结果表明：近37 a来乌伊岭区的年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,上升幅度达1.0℃;年降水量无显著变化,但是乌伊岭区降水量在年际之间差别较大,最多的年份年降水量为868.3 mm,最少的年份年降水量为200....     

Physical and chemical impacts of a major storm on a temperate lake: a taste of things to come?

Extreme weather can have a substantial influence on lakes and is expected to become more frequent with climate change. We explored the influence of one particular extreme event, Storm Ophelia, on the physical and chemical environment of England’s largest lake, Windermere. We found that the substantial influence of Ophelia on meteorological conditions at Windermere, in particular wind speed, resulted in a 25-fold increase (relative to the study-period average) in the wind energy flux at the lake-air interface. Following Ophelia, there was a short-lived mixing event in which the Schmidt stability decreased by over 100 Jm^?2 and the thermocline deepened by over 10 m during a 12-h period. As a result of changes to the strength of stratification, Ophelia also changed the internal seiche regime of Windermere with the dominant seiche period increasing from ~?17 h pre-storm to ~?21 h post-storm. Following Ophelia, there was an upwelling of cold and low-oxygenated waters at the southern-end of the lake. This had a substantial influence on the main outflow of Windermere, the River Leven, where dissolved oxygen concentrations decreased by ~?48%, from 9.3 to 4.8 mg L^?1, while at the mid-lake monitoring station in Windermere, it decreased by only ~?3%. This study illustrates that the response of a lake to extreme weather can cause important effects downstream, the influence of which may not be evident at the lake surface. To understand the impact of future extreme events fully, the whole lake and downstream-river system need to be studied together.     

黑龙江省近10a气温预报模拟检验与未来40a气温预测的分析

使用近10 a气温降水资料,采用CCCma、Ccsr、Gfdl、Csiro和Hadley海-气数值模式对哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔、牡丹江、佳木斯和4市平均的2000、2009年平均气温变化进行模拟预报,对模拟结果进行气候态方法检验。结果表明,部分气候模式模拟的气温气候预报检验达到可信的程度,可以使用其结果作延伸预报;2010-2050年气候模拟预报结果表明未来的40 a年平均气温累计上升1.1℃。     

呼伦贝尔50a白灾分析

利用呼伦贝尔16个国家级气象观测站1960-2010年最大积雪深度、最长连续积雪日数、总积雪日数等资料,计算呼伦贝尔地区1960-2009年各个地区的白灾指数。经过计算,2003—2004年是呼伦贝尔各地出现白灾最多的年份,2000年以后呼伦贝尔白灾有加重的趋势。受下垫面影响,西南部牧区的西旗,50 a出现白灾次数最多,共出现18次,达2.8 a一遇;呼伦贝尔林区白灾出现频次最少。根据呼伦贝尔白灾次数分布图可直观看出,西南部和东南部是白灾的高发区,上述地区是需要重点防范的地区。     

册亨县40a气候变化分析

根据册亨县1964~2003年共40 a的气温、降水资料,采用统计方法分析其变化特点,结果发现:在全球气候变暖的背景下,我县年平均气温以20世纪80年代中期为转折点,后20 a较前20 a增高了0.15℃,年平均气温的变化曲线呈波状上升;年降雨量也呈波状分布,旱涝交替。同样以80年代中期为转折点,前20 a雨水较为充沛,后20 a气候异常,干旱少雨。     

Energy-GDP decoupling in a second best world—a case study on India

Reference emission scenarios in the literature have been the target of criticisms that suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy-GDP decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on the case of India. It explores the role of current suboptimalities of the Indian power sector (structural under-investment in the sector leading to capacity shortage, power cuts and low efficiency) on future energy-GDP decoupling. To do so, it uses a hybrid general equilibrium framework, in which these suboptimalities are explicitly introduced. The results highlight that whether the constraints on investments in the power sector persist or not leads to contrasted trends in energy-GDP decoupling and GHG emissions. Over the short-term, capital scarcity in the power sector constrains the development of energy-intensive activities and therefore leads to higher energy-GDP decoupling. But on the longer-term, constrains on the power sector capacity limits substitution from fossil fuels to electricity, which entails both a low energy-GDP decoupling and a constraint on GDP growth when oil prices are high. The alleviation of suboptimalities appears thus as an insurance policy towards future oil price increase.     

宾县50a气候变化分析

1资料分析处理分析宾县1961—2010年相关的气象资料,将50a资料,每10a划分为一个时段,共划分5个时段。即：61—70、71—80、81—90、91—2000、2001—2010年。     

海阳50a气候特征分析

根据海阳1961—2010年气温、降水量、日照、相对湿度等气象资料,应用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 突变检测法、滑动t检验法,对海阳市气候变化及规律进行了分析。结果表明：历年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最低气温在过去的50a间呈显著的上升趋势,历年极端最高气温的上升趋势不显著,年代际变化特征突出;年降水量呈缓慢的减少趋势,变化趋势不显著,年代际间分布不均,变化较大,年降水量减少的原因是夏季和秋季降水减少;日照时数呈显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是2004年;年平均相对湿度呈现显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是1977年,秋季湿度减少最为明显。     

加格达奇近40a雷暴发生的特征分析

1引言大兴安岭地区位于祖国最北部边陲,加格达奇是大兴安岭地区行政公署所在地,地处黑龙江省西北部,大兴安岭山脉的东南坡。大兴安岭地区森林火灾多由雷击火引发,为有效预防或减少雷击火灾带来的经济损失,本文对加格达奇的雷暴特征做了细致的分析研究。     

近50a江淮梅雨的区域特征

利用江淮地区44个站1954-2003年50 a逐日降水资料,采用模糊聚类、经验正交函数分解(EOF)、谐波分析和小波分析等方法分析了江淮梅雨期梅雨量的时空变化特征.结果表明:江淮地区梅雨量的空间分布存在显著不同的区域差异,可以分为南、北两个区.梅雨量具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,南区候平均雨量峰值出现在6月第5候,北区峰值出现在7月第1候,副高脊线的两次北跳分别与江淮梅雨的平均入梅日期(6月第4候)和平均出梅日期(7月第2候)密切有关;南区梅雨量长期变化呈显著的上升趋势,而北区变化不明显;南北两区梅雨量具有显著不同的年际和年代际方差构成.南北两区梅雨量均存在多时间尺度的振荡周期.副热带高压和季风环流的异常直接影响到江淮梅雨期梅雨量的丰枯.     

Classification of Hailstone Trajectories in a Hail Cloud over a Semi-Arid Region in China

The growth trajectory of hailstones in clouds determines the ground intensity and spatial distribution of hailfall. A systematic study of hail trajectories can help improve the current scientific understanding of the mechanisms by which hail forms in semi-arid regions of China and, in doing so, improve the quality of hail forecasts and warnings and help to prevent and mitigate disasters. In this study, the WRFv3.7.1 model was employed to provide the background field to drive the hailstone trajec...     

伊春近30a大雾天气的统计分析

统计分析伊春1979～2008年大雾天气的日变化、月际变化、年际变化规律.伊春大雾多出现在夜间,日出后消散,持续时间以3～6h为多.大雾主要集中在夏季,其次为春秋两季,而冬季大雾出现很少.20世纪90年代大雾日数最多,2000年以来大雾日数又缓慢减少,但没有明显的周期性.当相对湿度为75%～80%、气温为15-20℃、风速为静风或0～0.5m/s、气压为980.0～985.0hPa时,出现大雾频率最高.     

贵州省近50a降水资源的评估

介绍了国家气候中心使用的降水资源评估方法,利用贵州省32个代表站1961～2004年年降水量和历年气候灾情资料,对近50a来全省年降水资源的变化和旱涝灾害出现情况做了分析,对年降水资源进行评估.研究表明贵州年降水资源量20世纪70年代最多,90年代次之,80年代最少,其年降水资源量值低于多年平均值,但各年代总体变化不大,均在正常范围内;贵州省历年有较大干旱灾情出现的频率大于较大洪涝灾情出现频率,且20世纪90年代旱涝灾情同年出现的现象明显,主要原因①近年来各种气象灾情收集记录更详实;②虽然全年降水总量变化不明显,但极端天气出现频繁;③随着经济的发展,人类活动加剧使我贵州气象灾害的承灾能力下降.干旱洪涝对农业生产及国民经济产生的影响巨大,防汛抗旱工作形势更加严峻.     

长沙地区30a霾观测记录的分析

利用长沙、浏阳、宁乡3站1981-2010年30 a霾观测记录,按照相对湿度判识标准订正霾日数,进行两种判识标准对比分析,给出三站记录偏差,结果表明:台站按照《规范》对霾观测记录有很大的不确定性,两种判识标准记录的霾日数相差较大,订正前后年平均偏差率宁乡38.8％、长沙52.5％、浏阳64.6％,月平均偏差率宁乡48.3％、长沙56.65％、浏阳68.0％;霾最多出现在12月,其次是1月、11月,最少出现在7月,次少在6月和8月.为使霾观测记录更趋完整、连续和合理、为霾观测及其资料应用提供重要依据,必须对历史资料序列订正.24h定时观测、使用能见度观测仪与大气气溶胶浓度观测数据相结合判识霾,是确保霾记录真实可靠最有效的办法.     

宿州市近58a日照时数的气候特征分析

利用宿州站1953～2010年的日照观测资料,采用统计学的方法,分析日照时数的气候变化特征.结果表明:近58a年宿州日照时数呈减少趋势.其趋势变化率为-49h/10a;四季日照时数也均呈现下降特征,夏季的减少趋势最明显;月日照时数5月份最多,2月最少,气候倾向率只有4月为正值;日照日数和日照百分率和总云量无明显的线性关...     

40a南海夏季风建立日期的确定

对1958～1997年NCEP/NCAR4～6月逐候资料的分析表明,将(10～20°N,110～120°E)区域内面积平均的850hPa层上稳定地有θse≥335K且纬向风由东风稳定地转变为西风的时刻为南海夏季风爆发时间具有较好的指示意义.所谓稳定是指从该时刻起,这一状况必须持续3候且其后间断不超过2候,或持续2候后间断1候但立刻又回到间断前状态.     

116 a长江中下游梅雨的气候特征

用EOF分解、聚类分析和相关分析法，对116a长江中下游5站逐年梅雨资料进行了检验。结果表明，用这5站的梅雨参数确实可以代表长江中下游梅雨的典型特征。根据梅雨量与候雨量的相关程度，分析了116a梅雨量集中的时段，对不同的梅雨参数用Morlet小波法分析了周期，找出了年际及年代际变化规律和趋势变化特征，并用滑动t检验法检验了是否发生突变。