Decadal variability of the Arctic Ocean thermal structure

Long-term variability of heat content (HC) in the upper 1,000 m of the Arctic Ocean is investigated using surface and subsurface temperature and current data during 1958–2005 compiled by Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. Annual cycle of the Arctic Ocean HC is controlled primarily by the negative and positive excursions in net upper ocean heat flux, while the inter-annual variability is mainly associated with meridional thermal advection from the North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in HC is experienced as a basin-wide cooling/warming in association with the Arctic Oscillation on a decadal time scale. In the first three dominant modes of Empirical Orthogonal Function, the maximum amplitude of HC variability occurs in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea and Eurasian Basin. In general, HC showed increasing trend during 1958–2005 indicating continuous warming with regional variations in magnitude.     

Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

Global upper ocean heat content and climate variability

Observational data from the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program were used to calculate the upper ocean heat content (OHC) anomaly. The thickness of the upper layer is taken as 300 m for the Pacific/Atlantic Ocean and 150 m for the Indian Ocean since the Indian Ocean has shallower thermoclines. First, the optimal spectral decomposition scheme was used to build up monthly synoptic temperature and salinity dataset for January 1990 to December 2009 on 1° × 1° grids and the same 33 vertical levels as the World Ocean Atlas. Then, the monthly varying upper layer OHC field (H) was obtained. Second, a composite analysis was conducted to obtain the total-time mean OHC field ([`([`(H)])] \bar{\bar{H}} ) and the monthly mean OHC variability ( [(\textH)\tilde] \widetilde{\text{H}} ), which is found an order of magnitude smaller than [^(\textH)] \widehat{\text{H}} . Third, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method is conducted on the residue data ( [^(\textH)] \widehat{\text{H}} ), deviating from [(\textH)\tilde] \widetilde{\text{H}}  +  [(\textH)\tilde] \widetilde{\text{H}} , in order to obtain interannual variations of the OHC fields for the three oceans. In the Pacific Ocean, the first two EOF modes account for 51.46% and 13.71% of the variance, representing canonical El Nino/La Nina (EOF-1) and pseudo-El Nino/La Nina (i.e., El Nino Modoki; EOF-2) events. In the Indian Ocean, the first two EOF modes account for 24.27% and 20.94% of the variance, representing basin-scale cooling/warming (EOF-1) and Indian Ocean Dipole (EOF-2) events. In the Atlantic Ocean, the first EOF mode accounts for 49.26% of the variance, representing a basin-scale cooling/warming (EOF-1) event. The second EOF mode accounts for 8.83% of the variance. Different from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, there is no zonal dipole mode in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fourth, evident lag correlation coefficients are found between the first principal component of the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Oscillation Index with a maximum correlation coefficient (0.68) at 1-month lead of the EOF-1 and between the second principal component of the Indian Ocean and the Dipole Mode Index with maximum values (around 0.53) at 1–2-month advance of the EOF-2. It implies that OHC anomaly contains climate variability signals.     

Sea level variability in the Gulf of Mexico since 1900 and its link to the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Strait flows

The long-term variability of sea level and surface flows in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is studied using global monthly sea level reconstruction (RecSL) for 1900–2015. The study explored the long-term relation between the dynamics of the GOM and inflows/outflows through the Yucatan Channel (YC) and the Florida Straits (FS). The results show a century-long trend of increased mean velocity and variability in the Loop Current (LC); however, no significant upward trend was found in the YC and FS flows, only increased variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface height found spatial patterns dominated by variations in the LC and temporal variations on time scales ranging from a few months to multidecadal. The time evolution of each EOF mode of sea level is correlated with the velocity of either the LC, the YC, or the FS or some combination of the different flows. The mean sea level difference between the GOM and the northwestern Caribbean Sea was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with unusually high differences during the 1970s when the NAO index was low and the Atlantic Ocean circulation was weak. Extreme peaks in SL difference coincide with the extension of the LC and the seasonal eddy shedding pattern. The observed seasonal cycle in the extension area of the LC as obtained from 20 years of altimeter data is significantly correlated (R = 0.63; confidence level = 98%) with the seasonal YC flow obtained from 116 years of the RecSL data. However, the same LC extension record had lower correlation (R = 0.45; confidence level = 90%) with the observed YC transport obtained from direct moored measurements over ~ 5 years, indicating the need for much longer measurements, since the LC extension and the YC flow are strongly affected by interannual and decadal variations. The study demonstrates the usefulness of even a coarse-resolution reconstruction for studies of regional ocean variability and climate change over longer time scales than current direct observations allow.

     

Temperature variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past 40 years,from an in situ analysis and a 3D global simulation

A global in situ analysis and a global ocean simulation are used jointly to study interannual to decadal variability of temperature in the Bay of Biscay, from 1965 to 2003. A strong cooling is obtained at all depths until the mid-1970's, followed by a sustained warming over ～30 years. Strong interannual fluctuations are superimposed on this slow evolution. The fluctuations are intensified at the surface and are weakest at ～500 m. A good agreement is found between the observed and simulated temperatures, in terms of mean values, interannual variability and time correlations. Only the decadal trend is significantly underestimated in the simulation. A comparison to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data over the last 20 years is also presented. The first mode of interannual variability exhibits a quasi-uniform structure and is related to the inverse winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Regarding the vertical structure, most cool and warm anomalies are generated at the surface, with the strongest ones penetrating down to 700 m and lasting up to 5 years. The complete heat budget from 1965 to 2004 is presented, including the contributions of vertical transport, freshwater flux and surface elevation. Interannual anomalies are mainly generated by the surface heat flux, while oceanic transports may become more important at longer time scales.     

Interannual variability of Gulf Stream warm-core rings in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Analysis of a quality-controlled database of Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) between 75° and 50°W during 1978–1999 demonstrates a significant correlation between WCR occurrences and variations in large-scale atmospheric forcing related to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanisms for linking the NAO with the rate of WCR occurrences are two-fold: (1) the influence of the NAO on Gulf Stream (GS) position, which could affect the interaction of the Gulf Stream with the New England Seamounts chain and thus allow for a higher/lower number of WCR occurrences; (2) the NAO-induced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability in the Gulf Stream region (GSR), which is indicative of the baroclinic instability processes necessary for WCR formation. Variability in GS movement is studied by analyzing annual mean positions of the Gulf Stream North Wall obtained from satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) frontal charts. Response of GSR EKE to fluctuations in the state of the NAO is examined with a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic basin from 1980–1999. The North Atlantic basin is simulated using a 1/6°-resolution eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model that spins up with Southampton Oceanography Center (SOC) ocean-atmosphere atlas-derived atmospheric forcing fields. Model-derived EKE estimates are observed to be in good agreement with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-based EKE estimates as well as with results from other modeling studies for the North Atlantic basin. We suggest that lateral movement of the GS may not be the primary mechanism causing variation in the rate of WCR occurrences, because GS position is observed to respond at a lag of one year, whereas annual rates of WCR occurrences respond at 0-year lag to the NAO. Based on results from numerical simulations of the North Atlantic basin, adjustment to NAO-induced wind forcing is seen to impact the GSR EKE intensity and possibly the related baroclinic instability structure of the GS at 0-year lag. These results suggest that NAO-induced interannual variability in GSR EKE is the most likely mechanism affecting WCR occurrences. Numerical simulations show that high (low) phases in the state of the NAO exhibit higher (lower) EKE in the GSR, providing a greater (lesser) source of baroclinic instability to the GS front, possibly resulting in higher (lower) occurrences of WCRs.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Coastal and oceanic SST variability along the western Iberian Peninsula

The inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed along the western Iberian Peninsula in the region ranging from 9.5 °W to 21.5 °W and from 37.5 °N to 42.5 °N with a spatial resolution of 1°×1° from 1900 to 2008. Both coastal and oceanic SST showed an overall increase with warming and cooling cycles similar to those observed in the North Atlantic region and in previous regional studies. In addition, the evolution of coastal and ocean water has been observed to be different. In general, ocean water is more affected by the different warming–cooling cycles than coastal water. In spite of coast and ocean are highly influenced by global changes affecting the whole North Atlantic region, near shore SST has been observed to be correlated with local wind regime, which is itself a manifestation of the Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection pattern.     

Deglacial sea surface temperature and salinity increase in the western tropical Atlantic in synchrony with high latitude climate instabilities

A sediment core from the western tropical Atlantic covering the last 21,000 yr has been analysed for centennial scale reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice volume-corrected oxygen isotopic composition of sea water (δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw) using Mg / Ca and δ¹⁸O of the shallow dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white). At a period between 15.5 and 17.5 kyr BP, the Mg / Ca SST and δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw, a proxy for sea surface salinity (SSS), reveals a warming of around 2.5 °C along with an increase in salinity. A second period of pronounced warming and SSS increase occurred between 11.6 and 13.5 kyr BP. Within age model uncertainties, both warming intervals were synchronous with air temperature increase over Antarctica and ice retreat in the southern South Atlantic and terminated with abrupt centennial scale SSS decrease and slight SST cooling in conjunction with interglacial reactivation of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). We suggest that during these warm intervals, production of saline and warm water of the North Brazil Current resulted in pronounced heat and salt accumulation, and was associated with warming in the southern Atlantic, southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and weakened MOC. At the termination of the Younger Dryas and Heinrich event 1, intensification of cross-equatorial heat and salt transport caused centennial scale cooling and freshening of the western tropical Atlantic surface water. This study shows that the western tropical Atlantic served as a heat and salt reservoir during deglaciation. The sudden release of accumulated heat and salt at the end of Younger Drays and Heinrich event 1 may have contributed to the rapid reinvigoration of the Atlantic MOC.     

Atmospheric modes influence on Iberian Poleward Current variability

The inter-annual variability of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC) along the northwestern coast of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) (40-43°N) and its intrusion in the Cantabrian Sea (Navidad, 6-8°W) were analyzed in terms of the atmospheric forcing. The January Sea Surface Temperature (J SST) was obtained from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) NOAA satellite from 1985 to 2006. It is a well documented fact that the existence of a tongue of water warmer than the surrounding ones (IPC) which circulates along the western Iberian shelf edge, turn eastward around Cape Finisterre, and enters in the Cantabrian Sea generating Navidad at the beginning of every winter. However, in the present study it has been highlighted that there are several years (1986, 1987, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2004 and 2005) during which water from coast to the adjacent shelf is much colder than the oceanic one remarking a weak or inexistent IPC during these Januaries. In addition, the dependence of SST on the most representative regional patterns with some influence upon the eastern North Atlantic region was analyzed by means of correlations between November-December atmospheric modes and J SST. The considered modes were: North Atlantic Oscillation pattern (NAO), Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), Eastern Atlantic Western Russia pattern (EA/WR), Polar/Eurasia pattern (POL) and Scandinavia pattern (SCA). This analysis reveals that two atmospheric patterns (N-D NAO and N-D EA/WR) are responsible of the main variability of the J SST of the western and northern IP. J SST is negatively correlated with N-D NAO and positively correlated with N-D EA/WR. Multivariate analysis involving both modes provides correlation coefficients on the order of 0.7 on both coasts (western and northern). The influence of both modes on J SST was observed to be on the same order of magnitude but with different sign. These correlations were physically interpreted by means of an analysis of extreme events and Sea Level Pressure (SLP) composite analysis.     

An abrupt cooling event early in the last interglacial in the northern South China Sea

The high-resolution quantitative analysis of the planktonic foraminifera and the δ¹⁸O records of the section between 96.49– 137.6 mcd at ODP Site 1144 on the continental slope of northern South China Sea reveals an abrupt cooling event of sea surface temperature (SST) during the last interglacial (MIS 5.5, i.e. 5e). The dropping range of the winter SST may come to 7.5°C corresponding to 1.2‰ of the δ¹⁸O value of sea surface water. This event is comparable with those discovered in the west Europe and the northern Atlantic Ocean, but expressed in a more intensive way. It is inferred that this event may have been induced by middle- to low-latitude processes rather than by polar ice sheet change. Since the Kuroshio-index speciesPulleniatina obliquiloculata displayed the most distinct change at the event, it may also be related to the paleoceanographic change of the low-latitude area in the western Pacific Ocean. This event can be considered as one of “Younger Dryas-style coolings” and is indicative of climate variability of the last interglacial stage.     

Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

North Atlantic extratropical and subpolar gyre variability during the last 120 years: a gridded dataset of surface temperature,salinity, and density. Part 1: dataset validation and RMS variability

We present a binned annual product (BINS) of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface density (SSD) observations for 1896–2015 of the subpolar North Atlantic between 40° N and 70° N, mostly excluding the shelf areas. The product of bin averages over spatial scales on the order of 200 to 500 km, reproducing most of the interannual variability in different time series covering at least the last three decades or of the along-track ship monitoring. Comparisons with other SSS and SST gridded products available since 1950 suggest that BINS captures the large decadal to multidecadal variability. Comparison with the HadSST3 SST product since 1896 also indicates that the decadal and multidecadal variability is usually well-reproduced, with small differences in long-term trends or in areas with marginal data coverage in either of the two products. Outside of the Labrador Sea and Greenland margins, interannual variability is rather similar in different seasons. Variability at periods longer than 15 years is a large part of the total interannual variability, both for SST and SSS, except possibly in the south-western part of the domain. Variability in SST and SSS increases towards the west, with the contribution of salinity variability to density dominating that of temperature in the western Atlantic, except close to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current in the southwest area. Weaker variability and larger relative temperature contributions to density changes are found in the eastern part of the gyre and south of Iceland.

     

Shelf water entrainment by Gulf Stream warm-core rings between 75°W and 50°W during 1978–1999

Previous work concerning Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) and their associated shelf water entrainments have been based upon single surveys or time series from individual WCRs. To date, estimates of annual shelf water volume entrained into the Slope Sea by WCRs and its interannual variability have not been made. Using a long time series of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) observations of Slope Sea WCRs, we have completed an analysis of 22 years of WCR data (1978–1999) between 75°W and 50°W to understand the interannual variability of WCRs and their role in entraining shelf water. Satellite-derived SST data digitized at Bedford Institute of Oceanography are analyzed using an ellipse-fitting feature model to determine key WCR characteristics including WCR center position, radius and orientation. Key characteristics are then used to compute WCR swirl velocity by finite-differencing WCR orientations (θ) obtained from the feature model time series. Global mean WCR-edge swirl velocity calculated from all observations is 105.72±10.7 km day⁻¹ (122.36±12.4 cm s⁻¹), and global mean WCR radius is 64.8±6.2 km. Primary and derived WCR data are incorporated into a two-dimensional ring entrainment model (RM) using the quasi-geostrophic approximation of the potential vorticity equation. The RM defines ambient water as entrained by a WCR only if the gradient of relative vorticity term (horizontal shear) dominates the potential vorticity. Proximity of a WCR to the position of the shelf-slope front (SSF) is then used to determine whether the ambient water is entrained from the outer continental shelf. WCR-induced shelf entrainment derived from the RM displays considerable spatial variability, with maximum entrainment occurring offshore of Georges Bank, advecting a mean total annual shelf water volume of 7500 km³ year⁻¹ from the region. Estimates of shelf water fluxes display significant interannual variability, which may be in part due to the observed covariance between WCR occurrences and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Increased (decreased) occurrences of WCRs are evidenced during positive (negative) phases of the NAO. The total mean annual shelf-wide WCR-induced shelf water transport is estimated to be 23,700 km³ year⁻¹ (0.75 Sv), accounting for nearly 25% of the total transport in the Slope Sea region neighboring the outer continental shelf.     

Temporal and spatial variability of Chl-a and SST on the South Atlantic Bight: Revisiting with cloud-free reconstructions of MODIS satellite imagery

Daily, cloud-free data interpolating empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll (Chl-a) satellite imagery are compiled into monthly mean images for a six-year period (2003–2008) and used to identify their spatial and temporal variability on the South Atlantic Bight. Monthly-mean SST has the highest variability on the inner-shelf, decreasing seaward approaching the more stable temperatures of the Gulf Stream (GS). Monthly-mean Chl-a concentrations are similarly highest on the inner shelf throughout the year and decrease cross-shelf toward the nutrient depleted open ocean. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on SST and Chl-a show a clear seasonal cycle in their 1st mode of variability, with SST lagging behind Chl-a by approximately one month. The 1st EOF modes account for 95.8% and 46.4% variance of SST and Chl-a, respectively. Chl-a EOF mode 1 in particular shows a highly regionalized spatial pattern with values on the central SAB clearly out of phase with the southern and northern SAB. This regional difference is likely a result of shelf geometry and stratification, which modulate GS influence on the shelf. SST EOF mode 2 exhibits a seasonal cycle as well, which previous studies have shown to be a function of local wind. Chl-a EOF mode 2 is well correlated with the cumulative river transport onto the SAB, but accounts for a relatively small 10.8% of Chl-a variability.     

Satellite observation of Brazil Current inshore thermal front in the SW South Atlantic: Space/time variability and sea surface temperatures

A data set of 199 sea surface temperature maps derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer for the period 2000–2002 was processed to derive the position of the surface inshore thermal front of the Brazil Current (BCIF) in the SE Brazilian coastal and oceanic area. After the derivation of the position of the BC front for each image, the ensemble of digital frontal vectors was processed using the algorithm of frontal density (FD). For each 5′×5′ cell in the domain the calculated FD provided an index expressing the presence and persistence of the front in the area or the probability of finding the front in the region. In the paper we present the results of the FD analysis to get a better view of the space and time variability of the BC front in the region. The highest values of FD were in general observed close to or at the shelf break zone (between 200 and 1000 m isobaths). From 20°S to 23°S there is a tendency of BCIF to be positioned over the outer shelf, inshore of the 200 m isobaths. SE of Cape Sao Tome and S of Cape Frio it was observed a bimodal spatial distribution of highest FD caused by the presence of two semi-permanent frontal eddies. After moving offshore near Cape Frio, the BCIF tends to return to the shelf break zone south of 24°S probably due to a potential vorticity conservation mechanism. The position of the highest FD values calculated for different seasons confirms previous studies in that BCIF is closer to the coast during the summer and furthest offshore in the winter. Statistical analysis of the SST data gave for the BCIF an average SST gradient of 0.31°C km⁻¹ with a standard deviation of 0.15°C km⁻¹. A mean frontal width of 6 km was inferred from the average SST gradient and typical temperatures near the front at both sides, at outer shelf and in the BC itself. A Weibull probability density function can be fitted to describe the BCIF SST gradients with scale factor c=0.3460°C km⁻¹ and shape factor k=2.1737. The BCIF SST gradient showed a seasonal variability with the smallest gradients in summer (~0.24 °C km⁻¹) and the highest in autumn (~0.33 °C km⁻¹). Using a three harmonic Fourier fit for the SST field near the BCIF, at the outer shelf and at interior of BC, it was possible to derive an analytical model for the time variability of the SST gradient of BCIF.     

Recent warming in the Yellow/East China Sea during winter and the associated atmospheric circulation

We examine characteristics in the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Yellow/East China Sea during the boreal winter (December–January–February) for the period 1950–2008 in observations. It is found that the mean SST in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea gradually increases during recent decades. A warming trend of a basin scale SST is significant in most of the regions in the Yellow/East Sea, which is well explained by the variability of the first empirical orthogonal function SST mode. We suggest one candidate mechanism that the North Pacific oscillation (NPO)-like sea level pressure play an important role to warm the Yellow/East China Sea. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is the southern lobe of NPO-like sea level pressure over the North Pacific, causes a weakening of northerly mean winds over the Yellow/East China Sea during winter. This contributes to increase in the SST in the Yellow/East China Sea through the changes in the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes.     

On non-Gaussian SST variability in the Gulf Stream and other strong currents

This paper examines the physics of observed non-Gaussian sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly variability in the Gulf Stream system in a recently developed stochastic framework. It is first shown from a new high-resolution observational data set that the Gulf Stream system is very clearly visible as a band of negative skewness all the way from Florida, over Cape Hatteras, to the central North Atlantic. To get an idea about the detailed non-Gaussian variability along the Gulf Stream, probability density functions are calculated at several locations. One important observational result of this study is that the non-Gaussian tails of SST variability in the Gulf Stream system follow a power-law distribution. The study then shows that the observed non-Gaussianity is consistent with stochastic advection of SST anomalies in an idealized zonal current. In addition, stochastic advection is compatible with the observed northward eddy heat flux in the Gulf Stream, providing a new dynamical view at the heat balance in strong currents.     

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode recorded in coral oxygen isotope data from the Seychelles over the past 148 years

The tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) displays a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in sea surface temperature(SST) during the decay year of El Niδo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. This warming or cooling is called the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM). Recent studies showed that the IOBM dominates the interannual variability of the TIO SST and has impacts on the tropical climate from the TIO to the western Pacific. Analyses on a 148-year-long monthly coral δ 18 O record from the Seychelles Islands demonstrate that the Seychelles coral δ 18 O not only is associated with the local SST but also indicates the interannul variability of the basin-wide SST in the TIO. Moreover, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O shows a dominant period of 3–7 years that well represents the variability of the IOBM, which in return is modulated by the inter-decadal climate variability. The correlation between the Seychelles coral δ 18 O and the SST reveals that the coral δ 18 O lags the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific by five months and reaches its peak in the spring following the mature phase of ENSO. The spatial pattern of the first EOF mode indicates that the Seychelles Islands are located at the crucial place of the IOBM. Thus, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O could be used as a proxy of the IOBM to investigate the ENSO teleconnection on the TIO in terms of long-time climate variability.