大变形有效应力分析退化为总应力分析的新方法

传统方法在将有效应力分析向总应力分析退化时,一般采用将所有节点的孔压置为0的办法,这相当于对所有节点引入0压边界条件而影响了程序的通用性。将广义Terzaghi有效应力原理引入大变形固结理论中,并推导了其增量有限元方程。提出将广义有效应力系数置为0的新方法,实现了大变形有效应力分析向总应力分析的退化。新方法概念清晰,操作简单,不需要修改边界条件,可增强大变形有效应力分析程序的通用性。通过算例分析,证明了新方法的有效性。应用中可分别将广义有效应力系数置为1和0,对同一模型经过2次运算后,可对任意点在任意加荷条件下的固结沉降、最终沉降、固结度等指标进行准确评估,为工程设计和施工控制提供有效的分析手段。     

Quiescence period prior to strong earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone

The characteristics of the distributions of the time differences occurrence of the consecutive earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, including the Hokkaido Island area, have been investigated in various magnitude ranges. For the purpose of the analysis, we used the data from the regional and world earthquake catalogs for the last 20 years. As a result of this analysis, a new intermediate-term precursor effect has been found: a quiescence period observed prior to the strongest earthquakes. This precursor manifests itself in the form of the long-term (2–6 months) absence of events with M ≥ 5.5 within the territory. For the predictive purposes, it was proposed to replace the quiescence period by such a more stable parameter as the sum of the three longest intervals between the earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in a sliding time window. The prognostic informativeness of this parameter has been assessed.     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

Premonitory seismicity changes prior to the Parkfield and Coalinga earthquakes in southern California

In this work, we apply the Pattern Informatics technique for evaluating one surface expression of the underlying stress field, the seismicity, in order to study the Parkfield–Coalinga interaction over the years preceding the 1983 Coalinga earthquake. We find that significant anomalous seismicity changes occur during the mid-1970s in this region prior to the Coalinga earthquake that illustrate a reduction in the probability of an event at Parkfield, while the probability of an event at Coalinga is seen to increase. This suggests that the one event did not trigger or hinder the other, rather that the dynamics of the earthquake system are a function of stress field changes on a larger spatial and temporal scale.     

区域地球化学异常信息提取方法研讨

在一些以成矿区带或省区为单位的区域性地球化学异常信息提取工作中,所圈定的异常经常会出现"有矿没异常或有异常没矿"的信息错位现象,给地球化学评价工作造成一定的困难。本文借助实际资料,分析了造成这种现象的主要原因,并通过对几种解决这些问题的方法技术介绍对比,提出滑动平均标准化数值法,详细介绍了滑动平均标准化数值法的方法基础、优点、具体做法以及应用效果。     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

湘西南元古宙高涧群微量元素主成分分析

主成分分析法（PCA）是多元样本数据的数理统计方法。本文结合湘西南元古宙高涧群地层剖面等离子光谱分析所得Au、Ag、As、Sb、Cu、Pb、Zn、Sr、Ba、Mn、Co、Ti、Cr共13个微量元素的主成分计算结果和图解,解释了主成分参数和图解的地质含义。在C剖面和L剖面上,主成分F1具有相似的信息量,反映高涧群“原始”沉积物以铁镁矿物为主要特征。F2的信息量不同,在L剖面上,F1－F2图解可以将13个“原”变量分为5组“原”变量的组合：Co-Zn-Cu(Mn、Ba)、Ti-Cr、As-Pb、Au-Pb-Sr和Ag,Ag主要来自碎屑沉积物;在C剖面上,“原”变量的组合特征不明显,As、Cr、Sb、Ti与F2呈正相关,Sr与F2呈负相关。在L剖面上,Au主要受氧化条件制约;在C剖面上,海水较深,还原条件有利于Au、Ag的沉积。由于沉积环境不同,研究区的南部和北部一些微量元素存在明显的差异。根据（di^k)^2计算值,Ag、Pb的分布部分与后期构造破坏有关。     

Seasonal and solar cycle variations of night-time anomalous enhancements in total electron content

Seasonal and solar cycle variations of the various characteristics of night-time anomalous enhancements in total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere are presented for a low latitude station, Hawaii by considering TEC data for a full solar cycle. All the characteristics of the TEC enhancements have seasonal and solar cycle dependence. TEC enhancement characteristics such as frequency of occurrence, amplitude and duration are positively correlated with solar activity. The possible source mechanisms for the observed enhancements are also discussed.     

Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects,and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone,Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

Natural Hazards - Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a...     

Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake??s occurrence can be up to 10?years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M _w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M _S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M _S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M _S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence.     

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M _w 4.0–7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M _w 6.5 are about 6–7 years, 9–10 years, 59–78 years, 72–115 years and 88–127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.     

Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analyses of arsenic groundwater geochemistry in the Hetao basin,Inner Mongolia

Although high As groundwater has been observed in shallow groundwater of the Hetao basin, little is known about As distribution in deep groundwater. Quantitative investigations into relationships among chemical properties and among samples in different areas were carried out. Ninety groundwater samples were collected from deep aquifers of the northwest of the basin. Twenty-two physicochemical parameters were obtained for each sample. Statistical methods, including principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), were used to analyze those data. Results show that As species were highly correlated with Fe species, NH₄-N and pH. Furthermore, result of PCA indicates that high As groundwater was controlled by geological, reducing and oxic factors. The samples are classified into three clusters in HCA, which corresponded to the alluvial fans, the distal zone and the flat plain. Moreover, the combination of PCA with HCA shows the different dominant factors in different areas. In the alluvial fans, groundwater is influenced by oxic factors, and low As concentrations are observed. In the distal zone, groundwater is under suboxic conditions, which is dominated by reducing and geological factors. In the flat plain, groundwater is characterized by reducing conditions and high As concentrations, which is dominated by the reducing factor. This investigations indicate that deep groundwater in the alluvial fans mostly contains low As concentrations but high NO₃ and U concentrations, and needs to be carefully checked prior to being used for drinking water sources.     

基于元素含量和空间变异系数的化探异常信息识别

化探异常信息识别是化探数据分析最重要的任务之一, 也是化探数据在资源勘查领域受到广泛关注的最重要原因, 前人对化探异常信息识别做过大量研究, 这些研究中的大多数主要关注化探示踪元素的含量, 近而根据含量指标计算异常阈值, 而对示踪元素在空间中的分布特征关注较少。本文选择 1: 20万比例尺的克拉玛依幅为研究区, 根据区内金矿的矿床地球化学特征选择Ag、As、Au和Sb等4种元素为本区内金矿的示踪元素, 以地球化学元素分散晕形成理论为依据, 使用GIS技术和Matlab软件绘制研究区内4种金矿示踪元素的综合地球化学异常图。结果表明, 与传统阈值方法得到的化探异常图相比, 本文得到的化探异常图能够更好地指示研究区内已知金矿。     

Migration of large earthquakes along the great fault zones in Middle Asia

An analysis of the distribution (both spatial and temporal) of large earthquakes (M 6.5) along the Gissar—Kokshaal and the Hindu-Kush—Darvaz—Karakul fault zones in Middle Asia has revealed the linear character of migration from the ends to the centre of the Pamir arcs at a rate of 1–2 km/year to 3–6 km/year. Migration of large earthquakes at a similar rate has also been found in some of the other great fault zones. An attempt has been made to evaluate the duration of a migration cycle.The regularity found, although it needs further confirmation, has been used to tentatively predict the possible sites of future large earthquakes likely to occur in the present century.     

Occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in the seismic zones along the Hellenic Arc

Occurrence patterns of large shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes in the seismic zones along the Hellenic Arc have been investigated. It is shown that throughout this active region the earthquakes tend to occur in a rather systematic manner. At each time-period earthquakes occur within a discrete activated segment of the arc. These occurrence patterns are considered to offer an insight into identifying where large earthquakes are expected to occur in the future.     

Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan

This paper is concerned with the intermediate-term prediction of the forthcoming M7.4–8.2 earthquake on the plate boundary, off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, which has the highest occurrence probability among the long-term forecasted events announced to the public. Seismicity and aftershocks in the regions of stress-shadow preceding each of the previous ruptures in 1936 and 1978 shows significantly lower activity than the predicted rate by the ETAS model (the relative quiescence) during some years preceding the events, whereas the seismicity is normal or even activated in the regions of neutral or increasing Coulomb failure stress (CFS), which leads to the scenario based on the likely precursory slip within or near the source. Assuming such a scenario, a number of sequences of earthquakes or aftershocks during 1979–2004 from various regions in northern Japan are selected to analyze them by fitting the ETAS model. Then the results are examined in relation to the CFS increments in the considered regions using the source models of the 1793, 1936 and 1978 interplate ruptures, and additionally the source model of recently occurred 2003 Miyagi-Ken-Oki intra-slab earthquake of M7.1. It is likely that the results of the normal activity and relative quiescence in the respective activities are due to the preslip of the intra-slab earthquake rather than the preslip of the expected rupture on the plate boundary.     

基于成分数据分析和能谱-面积分形模型的鄂西黄陵背斜化探异常识别

鄂西黄陵背斜地区虽已发现众多矿点,但是矿床规模较小,找矿潜力不明。由于区内植被茂盛、覆盖严重,致使地质异常信息被削弱或掩盖,对进一步找矿工作造成了严重干扰。本次研究使用成分数据分析和能谱-面积（S-A）分形模型识别与金矿化相关的异常,结果表明：（1）等距对数比（ILR）变换后的主成分分析结果相比对数（Log）变换更能够反应元素的共生组合规律,第一主成分（PC1）元素组合为Au-Cu-Ag,且Au元素占有最大的载荷,与金矿密切相关,PC1元素组合异常的分布模式与矿点的分布更加吻合;（2） S-A方法抑制了黄陵背斜区域水系沉积物的背景模式,增强了异常模式;（3）根据地质特征和以往勘查工作情况,圈定了三处找矿远景区,为该地区金矿下一步勘查工作提供了重要依据。