Timing of vegetation changes at the end of the Holocene Humid Period in desert areas at the northern edge of the Atlantic and Indian monsoon systems

This article aims at discussing the ecological response of the terrestrial and fresh water dependant environments to the installation of arid conditions at the end of the Holocene Humid Period in the Atlantic and Indian monsoon domains. It is mainly focused on dry environments from Chad, Oman and Pakistan where new, high-resolution pollen sequences have been provided. Pollen data show that local hydrological conditions have played a major role in the destruction or survival of tropical tree populations at the end of the Holocene Humid Period, as well as partly explaining the asynchronous pattern of recorded environmental changes in most tropical regions. In desert areas, the response of the fresh water dependant systems to the shift from humid to arid climate conditions appears to have followed a threshold-like pattern. In contrast, terrestrial ecosystems have gradually adapted to increased drought, as shown by the progressive decrease of tropical tree species at Yoa or the gradual expansion in dry plant types in Oman and Pakistan from 6000 cal yrs BP to the present. A remarkable synchroneity in environmental change is recorded at the northern edge of the Atlantic and Indian monsoon systems, with the extreme end of the Holocene Humid Period corresponding to the last occurrence of tropical trees in the desert and the last record of prolonged SW monsoon rainfall over north-western Asia around 4700–4500 cal yrs BP.     

Evolution of India’s monsoon climate through geological times

Using the theory of plate tectonics and a concept of climate analogs, the paper speculates that a monsoon type of climate with warm and wet summer and cold and dry winter might have first appeared over the northern part of India when during its northward drift across the Tethys Ocean (now the Indian Ocean) it was located over the subtropical belt of the southern hemisphere some 60 million years before present (BP). The monsoon climate gradually evolved and extended to other parts of India as the Indian plate after crossing the equator about SO million years BP moved further northward and collided against the north Asian plate giving rise to the Himalayas along the northern boundary of India some 40 million years BP. Recent studies suggest that despite short and long period fluctuations, no major secular change or trend has taken place in the monsoon climate of India since then.     

Controls on the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial cycle,based on comparison between Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records

Previous studies have suggested a sound chronological correlation between the Hulu Cave record (East Asian monsoon) and Greenland ice-core records, which implies a dominant control of northern hemisphere climate processes on monsoon intensity. We present an objective, straightforward statistical evaluation that challenges this generally accepted paradigm for sub-orbital variability. We propose a more flexible, global interpretation, which takes into account a broad range of variability in the signal structures in the Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records, rather than a limited number of major transitions. Our analysis employs the layer-counted Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which was developed for Greenland records and has since been applied – via methane synchronisation – to the high-resolution δ¹⁸O_ice series from EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML). The GICC05 chronology allows these ice-core records to be compared to the U–Th dated Hulu Cave record within relatively narrow (～3%) bounds of age uncertainty. Following previous suggestions, our proposed interpretation suggests that the East Asian monsoon is influenced by a combination of northern hemisphere ‘pull’ (which is more intense during boreal warm periods), and southern hemisphere ‘push’ (which is more intense monsoon during austral cold periods). Our analysis strongly suggests a dominant control on millennial-scale monsoon variability by southern hemisphere climate changes during glacial times when the monsoon is weak overall, and control by northern hemisphere climate changes during deglacial and interglacial times when the monsoon is strong. The deduced temporally variable relationship with southern hemisphere climate records offers a statistically more plausible reason for the apparent coincidence of major East Asian monsoon transitions with northern hemisphere (Dansgaard–Oeschger, DO) climate events during glacial times, than the traditional a priori interpretation of strict northern hemisphere control.     

Measuring temperature variability of five major cities of Pakistan

Changes in surface air temperature during the last century are widely discussed among researches in the field of climate change. This paper measures the variability of annual surface air temperature of five major cities of Pakistan (Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta, Hyderabad and Karachi) for the period from 1882 to 2003. We perform an exploratory analysis which shows that the annual landmass air temperature series of five relatively more important climate stations of Pakistan obey the normal distribution. A subsequent trend analysis shows that the temperature has been increasing in the twentieth century for the five (major) cities of Pakistan, the increase being 0.3°C to 1.0°C. We computations based on Bayesian analysis for two samples (e.g., for Lahore, we use data for the period from 1882 to 1960 and 1961–2000 for first sample and second sample, respectively) of temperature data of five cites shows that the average of annual mean temperature for the second period is higher than the average of first period. Thus, Bayesian inferencing shows that the general pattern of evolution of temperature over Pakistan is pretty similar to the current global warming configuration.     

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.     

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan using WRF-ARW model

Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan has been carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This extraordinary rainfall event was localized over north-west Pakistan and recorded 274 mm of rainfall at Peshawar (34.02°N, 71.58°E), within a span of 24 h on that eventful day where monthly July normal rainfall is only 46.1 mm. The WRF model was run with the triple-nested domains of 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal resolution using Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme having YSU planetary boundary layer. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different simulated parameters. The model-derived rainfall was compared with Pakistan Meteorological Department–observed rainfall. The model suggested that this flood producing heavy rainfall event over north-west region of Pakistan might be the result of an interaction of active monsoon flow with upper air westerly trough (mid-latitude). The north-west Pakistan was the meeting point of the southeasterly flow from the Bay of Bengal following monsoon trough and southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea which helped to transport high magnitude of moisture. The vertical profile of the humidity showed that moisture content was reached up to upper troposphere during their mature stage (monsoon system usually did not extent up to that level) like a narrow vertical column where high amounts of rainfall were recorded. The other favourable conditions were strong vertical wind shear, low-level convergence and upper level divergence, and strong vorticity field which demarked the area of heavy rainfall. The WRF model might be able to simulate the flood producing rainfall event over north-west Pakistan and associated dynamical features reasonably well, though there were some spatial and temporal biases in the simulated rainfall pattern.     

Holocene temperature fluctuations in the northern Tibetan Plateau

Arid Central Asia (ACA) lies on a major climatic boundary between the mid-latitude westerlies and the northwestern limit of the Asian summer monsoon, yet only a few high-quality reconstructions exist for its climate history. Here we calibrate a new organic geochemical proxy for lake temperature, and present a 45-yr-resolution temperature record from Hurleg Lake at the eastern margin of the ACA in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Combination with other proxy data from the same samples reveals a distinct warm–dry climate association throughout the record, which contrasts with the warm–wet association found in the Asian monsoon region. This indicates that the climatic boundary between the westerly and the monsoon regimes has remained roughly in the same place throughout the Holocene, at least near our study site. Six millennial-scale cold events are found within the past 9000 yr, which approximately coincide with previously documented events of northern high-latitude cooling and tropical drought. This suggests a connection between the North Atlantic and tropical monsoon climate systems, via the westerly circulation. Finally, we also observe an increase in regional climate variability after the mid-Holocene, which we relate to changes in vegetation (forest) cover in the monsoon region through a land-surface albedo feedback.     

Monsoons across Multi-scales: Summary of Fourth Conference on Earth System Science

The evolution and future projection of the regional and global monsoons, one of the major components of Earth climate system in the low-latitudes and middle-latitudes, has long been the research focus in the paleoclimate and modern climate communities. Session 4 of the 4^th Conference on Earth System Sciences (CESS) in Shanghai focused on the evolution, variability, and driving mechanism of regional and global monsoon system across multiple timescale, and the role of the monsoon system in changes in the Earth system. During the session, the issues of features of past and contemporary monsoons based on observation data and geological reconstruction, model simulation of past and contemporary monsoons, and response of monsoon climate to the past and present global warming were intensively discussed. The future research directions were also addressed.     

末次盛冰期西太平洋海温差异对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟

文章利用Zhao等的模拟结果,进一步研究了在末次盛冰期(LGM)情景下汪品先和CLIMAP两种重建海洋表面温度(SST)资料差异对亚洲夏季风的影响。模拟结果表明:在LGM情景下西太平洋海域SST资料的不同对模拟的亚洲夏季风有着十分重要的作用。夏季,与CLGM方案相比,在WLGM方案中,当热带西太平洋SST较暖时,印度地区的大气热量出现显著增加,大气热量的这种变化,使得南非高压、南印度洋经向Hadley环流加强,伴随着索马里越赤道气流加强,也导致了印度季风区纬向季风环流的加强,从而造成了印度夏季风增强、降水增多;与较暖的热带西太平洋相对应,澳大利亚高压和120°E附近越赤道气流减弱,东亚季风区20°N以南经向季风环流加强、20°N以北经向季风环流减弱,指示着一个强的南海夏季风和较弱东亚副热带大陆夏季风。     

三门峡地区末次盛冰期至全新世早期的古季风事件

通过三门峡地区小刘寺剖面黄土- 古土壤序列磁化率曲线和粗颗粒组分含量曲线的研究,发现它们分别指示的夏季风和冬季风变迁在末次冰消期向全新世转变时的新仙女木事件中显示不同的变化特征。夏季风的加强过程对应于冬季风的大幅度波动,气候为凉湿背景上的冷湿与暖湿振荡。冰后期的早期为全新世第一暧期。夏季风强盛对应于冬季风衰弱的湿暖气候,它由夏季风锋面降水的穿时性所决定,在华北地区为全新世适宜期。8 kaBP 前后为夏季风偏弱对应于冬季风偏强的干冷气候,是具有普遍意义的全新世第一冷期。这3 次古季风事件可与格陵兰冰芯记录进     

汉江上游庹家湾剖面化学风化特征及其意义

通过对庹家湾黄土剖面元素的分析,揭示汉江上游地区黄土中常量元素的地球化学行为及对气候变化的响应。用X-Ray荧光光谱仪、MS-2型磁化率仪分别测量了庹家湾剖面元素含量及磁化率值,实验结果显示:庹家湾剖面的风成黄土化学成分以SiO₂、Al₂O₃和Fe₂O₃为主,三者含量分别为355.83 g/kg、79.62 g/kg、62.64 g/kg;以Ti为参比,Na、Ca、Mg、Si、K表现为迁移淋失,Fe、Al元素相对富集,元素的活动性及其迁移序列为Na > Ca > Mg > Si > K > Al > Fe;Fe和Al元素含量曲线及CIA曲线在228~260 cm（L₁~S₁）和294~370 cm（L₁~S₂）深度处出现明显的峰值,并与磁化率曲线呈现出高度一致性,指示该层化学风化程度明显高于典型黄土,接近于古土壤（S₀）,OSL年龄在27.5~21.5 ka B.P.之间。庹家湾剖面常量元素在剖面的变化,表明在汉江上游地区晚更新世末期的气候并非是持续干燥寒冷,而是存在一定的气候波动,在27.5~21.5 ka B.P.期间风化成壤作用较为明显,气候相对温暖湿润。     

风成沉积地层化学元素记录的毛乌素沙地气候变化

毛乌素沙地位于东亚季风边缘区,是研究全球气候变化和沙漠变迁的理想场所。选取沙地东缘风成砂/古土壤/湖沼相沉积序列,以常量化学元素含量及比值变化揭示了全新世的气候变化。结果表明：常量化学元素氧化物含量在全剖面上呈SiO₂ > Al₂O₃ > K₂O > Na₂O > Fe₂O₃ > MgO > CaO,且在不同沉积相中含量存在差异;常量化学元素氧化物与<63 μm粉黏组分及磁化率的相关性分析显示,Al₂O₃、Fe₂O₃、MgO三者之间呈显著正相关性,且与粉黏组分、低频磁化率（X_lf）也呈显著正相关性,表明<63 μm粉黏组分、X_lf可以反映夏季风的强弱;全新世气候变化存在多次暖湿冷干波动,10.39 ka BP之前出现3次快速的气候颤动,表现为3层风成砂与3层湖沼相互层沉积,指示存在3次冬夏季风交替变化;10.39~9.34 ka BP、8.68~8.29 ka BP、2.72~1.34 ka BP为3次明显的冬季风势力增强、风沙活动加剧的相对冷干气候;在9.34~8.68 ka BP、8.29~2.72 ka BP、1.34~0.62 ka BP为3次明显的夏季风盛行、降水增多、生草成壤的相对暖湿气候;0.62 ka BP之后与现代气候状况相近。化学元素及其比值反映出毛乌素沙地具有千百年尺度的气候波动,并与北半球其他地区气候变化有着良好的对比。     

ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.     

毛乌素沙漠东南缘全新世剖面光释光年代及古气候意义

在毛乌素沙漠东南缘锦界地区发现的具有3层深棕色至黑色古土壤的全新世剖面,记录了至少3次大型沙地固定与活化的交替演化.在锦界剖面厚约5m的全新世地层中采集了10个光释光样品,利用石英光释光测年单片再生法(SAR),建立了锦界剖面全新世(>7.5-0.2ka)年代格架.结合粒度、磁化率气候变化代用指标和光释光年龄序列,得到...     

云南华坪全新世大暖期百年尺度的季风气候的石笋记录

通过对云南华坪葫芦洞FL4石笋进行高精度的ICP—MS—230Th/U测年和高分辨率的碳、氧同位素分析,建立了该地区6 060-4 185 a BP间高分辨率的西南季风气候变化时间序列,进而揭示了该时段发生的3次季风减弱事件。 这3次百年尺度（持续时间为90～240a）的干旱寒冷事件,分别发生在6 060－5 950 a BP、5 380－5 140 a BP、4 810-4 620 a BP,呈台阶状演变;而石笋的碳同位素记录揭示了2次强降水事件,分别发生在5 503－5 443 a BP和4 210-4 185 a BP,持续时间分别为25a和60a。石笋碳、氧同位素记录的西南季风减弱以及强降水事件明显受太阳辐射强度的控制。分辨率为3~10 a的碳、氧同位素记录表明,在百年尺度的西南季风气候变化上,叠加了一系列十年尺度的气候突变事件,呈锯齿状的高频波动。这些短时间尺度的季风气候波动事件与树轮14C 残差、冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的可比性,可能主要是受中低纬度太阳辐射强度以及北半球大气环流的影响,太阳辐射强度的变化是控制印度季风的快速推进或退出(萎缩)以及百年尺度上的气候波动的主要动因。      

黑海西北部多瑙河峡谷北侧陆坡沉积特征及其与古气候的关系

【研究目的】在末次冰期，全球气候变化以千年尺度的快速、大幅度温度波动旋回为特征，这种波动变化在两极冰芯、深海沉积、中国黄土和洞穴石笋等诸多地质样品中均有记录。黑海位于北大西洋与东亚季风区过渡带，具有极有代表性的沉积记录。本文旨在通过对黑海沉积序列的研究，建立起其区域环境变化与北大西洋及东亚季风气候域气候变化的联系。【研究方法】研究对取自黑海西北部罗马尼亚陆坡区多瑙河峡谷北侧GAS-CS12钻孔的长22.0 m的岩芯样品，进行了粒度、矿物成分、主量元素、有机碳、总氮及碳氮同位素等分析。【研究结果】揭示出该段岩芯沉积于末次冰期中后期“Neoeuxine”湖相阶段，可划分为5个沉积单元，对应于北大西洋H4、H3、H1气候变化事件、末次冰盛期（LGM）及Bolling-Allerod气候变暖事件。【结论】建立起了其沉积序列及区域环境变化与北大西洋及东亚季风气候域气候变化的联系，印证了末次冰期千年尺度的气候变化事件在北大西洋、东亚季风区及两者过渡带上具有高度的一致性。创新点：建立了黑海西北沉积序列与区域环境变化的关系；补充了北大西洋与东亚季风区两者过渡带上气候波动事件的可靠时标。     

贵州荔波1200年来石笋高分辨率的古气候环境记录

通过笔者对荔波龙泉洞L2石笋进行高精度的ICP-MS-230Th测年和碳、氧同位素分析, 建立了荔波地区1200 a BP 来高分辨率的古气候变化的时间序列。研究结果表明, 荔波地区1200 a BP以来石笋记录的季风气候经历了1200~1100 a BP(暖)、1100~940 a BP (冷)、940~840 a BP(暖)、840~700 a BP(冷)、700~450 a BP(暖)、450~300 a BP(冷)、300~200 a BP(暖)以及200~70 a BP(冷)等8个阶段百年尺度的干湿、冷暖波动, 并在这些百年尺度的波动上又叠加了一系列数十年尺度的气候变化。石笋记录揭示了1200 a以来东亚季风气候的不稳定性, 呈百年尺度(Gleissberg)的周期性变化。这些气候变化事件, 与冰芯记录极为相似, 反映低纬度地区百年尺度石笋记录的季风气候变化与高纬度及北极地区的气候变化具有极好的相关性, 反映百年尺度石笋记录的季风降水主要受太阳辐射驱动、控制, 而东亚季风的降水事件(或干旱事件)与太阳的辐射强度密切相关。石笋记录的百年尺度季风降水事件对于认识现代气候系统变化以及对未来十年—百年尺度的气候预测和演化的驱动机制, 具有重要的科学意义。     

晚中新世植被变更与光合作用演化

光合作用酶Rubisco出现于太古代,对于以后地质时期里大气的CO2降低并不适应。晚中新世大幅度扩展的C4植物,就是光合作用演化的一种途径,适应于CO2浓度较低的大气,也适应于温暖而季节性干旱的季风气候。C4与C3植物碳同位素的重大差异,又为利用古土壤和哺乳类牙齿珐琅质的δ13C分辨C3、C4植物在植被中的比例提供了条件。自从发现巴基斯坦晚中新世古土壤层δ13C突变以来的10余年,围绕着C4植物扩展究竟反映季风气候,CO2浓度下降,还是干旱化,国内外学术界展开了热烈的讨论,至今尚属未解之谜,但从中可以吸取研究地球系统演变的经验教训。     

Synchronism of Holocene East Asian monsoon variations and North Atlantic drift-ice tracers

Eighteen radiocarbon-dated eolian and paleosol profiles within a 1500-km-long belt along the arid to semi-arid transition zone of north-central China record variations in the extent and strength of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Dated paleosols and peat layers represent intervals when the zone was dominated by a mild, moist summer monsoon climate that favored pedogenesis and peat accumulation. Brief intervals of enhanced eolian activity that resulted in the deposition of loess and eolian sand were times when strengthened winter monsoon conditions produced a colder, drier climate. The monsoon variations correlate closely with variations in North Atlantic drift-ice tracers that represent episodic advection of drift ice and cold polar surface water southward and eastward into warmer subpolar water. The correspondence of these records over the full span of Holocene time implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the monsoon climate of central China.     

东北地区降水周期与太阳活动的关系

利用树轮稳定碳同位素组成（δ１３Ｃｔ）序列可以较为灵敏地记录降水变化的特性，以长白山树轮δ１３Ｃｔ序列为降水变化的自然记录体，探讨太阳活动对长白山乃至东北季风气候区降水变化的影响。研究指出：１）２００年来长白山及东北季风气候区降水变化有准２２年的周期性波动；２）东北季风气候区里，东南季风强弱变化具有准２２年的周期性振荡；３）直接控制东南季风强弱变化的西太平洋副热带高压的活动可能具有相应的准２２年周期