Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar–terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center’s forecasts.     

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.     

Further studies of the Perkins stability during Space Weather Month

A simple integral equation describing the height of the mid-latitude ionosphere is presented and compared with observations and a more sophisticated model. At any instant, the ionosphere moves toward an equilibrium altitude, if it exists, which is determined by a combination of southward wind and eastward electric field. If no equilibrium exists, the layer simply falls at its terminal velocity or at a wind or electric field-aided rate. Including a simple recombination model provides an even more complete characterization of the nighttime ionosphere. By comparing the measured and predicted content, an estimate of the flux from the plasmasphere is possible.     

MAROS: a decision support system for optimizing monitoring plans

The Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System (MAROS), a decision-support software, was developed to assist in formulating cost-effective ground water long-term monitoring plans. MAROS optimizes an existing ground water monitoring program using both temporal and spatial data analyses to determine the general monitoring system category and the locations and frequency of sampling for future compliance monitoring at the site. The objective of the MAROS optimization is to minimize monitoring locations in the sampling network and reduce sampling frequency without significant loss of information, ensuring adequate future characterization of the contaminant plume. The interpretive trend analysis approach recommends the general monitoring system category for a site based on plume stability and site-specific hydrogeologic information. Plume stability is characterized using primary lines of evidence (i.e., Mann-Kendall analysis and linear regression analysis) based on concentration trends, and secondary lines of evidence based on modeling results and empirical data. The sampling optimization approach, consisting of a two-dimensional spatial sampling reduction method (Delaunay method) and a temporal sampling analysis method (Modified CES method), provides detailed sampling location and frequency results. The Delaunay method is designed to identify and eliminate redundant sampling locations without causing significant information loss in characterizing the plume. The Modified CES method determines the optimal sampling frequency for a sampling location based on the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty in its concentration trend. MAROS addresses a variety of ground water contaminants (fuels, solvents, and metals), allows import of various data formats, and is designed for continual modification of long-term monitoring plans as the plume or site conditions change over time.     

Space monitoring of Aral Sea degradation

The results of remote sensing survey of the Aral Sea in its degradation period are given. Satellite images are used to map shoreline retreat from 1961 to 2008 and to measure the decrease in the area. Seasonal variations in shoreline and water area are identified, suggesting seasonal level variations and correlating well with data of satellite altimetry surveys of sea level. Observations covered surge phenomena, seasonal dynamics of landscapes, and the seasonal salinization rhythm in coastal territories with the subsequent formation and weathering of salt crusts. The character of river runoff input into the Great Sea resulting from overbank flooding in artificial water bodies in the Amu Darya delta is identified.     

Overview of a Graduate Course Delivered in Turkey, Emphasizing Solar-Terrestrial Physics and Space Weather

Space physics is a young discipline in Turkey. Since 1970 various national near-Earth space research activities and several international collaborations have been conducted in Turkey and some of these are continuing. In May 2004 a four-week Graduate Course on “Space and Atmospheric Physics I and II” was held at the Tübitak Feza Gürsey Institute in Istanbul, Turkey. This paper explains the background behind this initiative, and gives an introduction to the topics that were covered during the course, especially emphasizing how solar-terrestrial physics is applied to space weather. During the course the students, in parallel with the lectures delivered, performed projects based on the curriculum, and using information available on the Internet and in the literature. A resumé of their results concerning the well-known “space weather” event at the end of 2003 is given.     

Study of Geoelectrical Responses to Space Weather Anomalies: Auroral Latitudes,Yenisei-Khatanga Regional Trough

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The paper presents the results of analysis of the geoelectric (telluric) field variability during the Earth’s magnetic field...     

Space Weather Parameters: Modeling and Prediction from the Data of Groundbased Observations of Solar Activity

We consider the prospects for developing a forecast system for space weather (SPW) parameters with the use of home facilities for groundbased observations of solar activity. The space weather forecast can be conventionally divided into three components: (i) the prediction of recurrent, slowly changing events connected with the topology of the large-scale magnetic field, (ii) the estimation of fluxes of UV and high-energy radiation, and (iii) the observation of high-speed phenomena, such as solar flares and eruption processes, and the prediction of their consequences at the the Earth’s orbit. At present, to predict recurrent events, data from regular observations of the large-scale field of the Sun by the solar telescope–magnetographs for operative (realtime) prediction (STOP) are effectively used. To estimate high-energy fluxes, to register eruption events, and to estimate their geoefficiency, data from the patrol optical telescope–spectrographs may be used. Patrol telescopes operate in automatic mode and register the processes with an interval of approximately one minute. To detect eruption processes, we propose a method based on the difference between the intensity values in the wings of chromospheric spectral lines. The results of the use of the observational complex of the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station for the SW forecast are considered in the paper.     

地下水变化的空间技术监测和预测

针对地下水变化的监测和预测的现状,提出了空间对地观测技术(InSAR、GPS和卫星重力技术)监测地下水变化的新手段,分析了其在监测和预测地下水变化的应用中需要解决的几个关键科学问题,同时建议我国应抓住机遇,尽早启动有关部门开展该领域的跨专业的研究.     

The characteristics of a hardware-software system for geoacoustic monitoring

The current version of a hardware-software system intended for monitoring the underground acoustic noise in the upper part of the Earth’s crust is described. The architecture of the hardware-software system is considered, and its component parts and the principle of their operation are described along with the algorithm of preliminary data processing. The amplitude-frequency characteristics of the channels are presented for a wide frequency range. The directional characteristics of the horizontal components of a magnetoelastic geophone are obtained from experimental measurements.     

Prospects for Solar and Space Weather Research with Polish Part of the LOFAR Telescope

The LOw-Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a new radio interferometer that consists of an array of stations. Each of them is a phase array of dipole antennas. LOFAR stations are distributed mostly in the Netherlands, but also throughout Europe. In the article we discuss the possibility of using this instrument for solar and space weather studies, as well as ionosphere investigations. We are expecting that in the near future the LOFAR telescope will bring some interesting observations and discoveries in these fields. It will also help to observe solar active events that have a direct influence on the near-Earth space weather.     

Design and installation of a novel automatic erosion monitoring system

Process inference in geomorphology is hindered by a lack of information on the true temporal distribution of contemporary erosional and depositional activity. To tackle this problem a low-cost, automatic monitoring system based on the photo-electronic erosion pin (PEEP) sensor has been developed. The PEEP is essentially an array of photosensitive cells enclosed within a transparent tube and connected by cable to a datalogger. When inserted into an eroding landform, subsequent retreat of the face exposes more photosensitive cells to light which increases PEEP voltage output. Deposition decreases sensor outputs. The logged signals thus reveal the magnitude, timing and frequency of erosion and deposition events with much greater precision than has hitherto been possible. Measurement principles, electronic and physical design, calibration, field installation, problems and prospects and pilot results from a river bank erosion site are discussed. The PEEP system appears to have great potential for disentangling competing hypotheses in geomorphological process studies, and in building and testing erosion and sediment transport models of high temporal resolution.     

A volcanic tremor monitoring system

The digitising system installed at the Chateau Observatory, in the North Island of New Zealand, to monitor Ruapehu and Ngauruhoe volcanoes is used to digitise the seismic records from three seismometers, and to calculate the power spectra of volcanic tremor in real-time, with the smoothed power spectra being recorded every 5 minutes on magnetic disk. The 5-minute averages are later processed to remove the effects of earthquakes and interference before hourly averages are calculated. This system has a better dynamic range than visual chart records, and analysis of the data requires much less labour.     

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.     

Statistical Association between Space Weather and Meteorological Variables During Winter in the Baltic Sea Region

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Some authors suggest that space weather events may affect daily weather variables, such as air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Associations between space weather...