冬季太阳11年周期活动对大气环流的影响

利用气象场的再分析资料和太阳辐射活动资料,对太阳11年周期活动影响北半球冬季(11月~3月)大气环流的过程进行了统计分析和动力学诊断.根据赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡(QBO)的东、西风状态对太阳活动效应进行了分类讨论,结果表明：东风态QBO时,太阳活动效应主要集中在赤道平流层中、高层和南半球平流层,强太阳活动时增强的紫外辐射加热了赤道地区的臭氧层,造成平流层低纬明显增温,同时加强了南半球的Brewer-Dobson(B-D)环流,引起南极高纬平流层温度增加;而北半球中高纬的环流主要受行星波的影响,太阳活动影响很小.西风态QBO时,太阳活动效应在北半球更为重要,初冬时强太阳活动除了加热赤道地区臭氧层外,还抑制了北半球的B-D环流,造成赤道平流层温度增加和纬向风梯度在垂直方向的变化,从而改变了对流层两支行星波波导的强度;冬末时在太阳活动调制下,行星波向极波导增强,B-D环流逐渐恢复,造成北半球极地平流层明显增温,同时伴随着赤道区域温度的下降.     

Uncertainties of the relationship between the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, the Arctic stratosphere and solar forcing

Two different equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indices, two reanalyses and radiosonde observations are used to analyze the Arctic stratospheric temperature and height. This analysis was used to assess the uncertainties in the connection of solar forcing, QBO and the Arctic variability. The results show that (1) the frequency of the westerly/easterly phases of the QBO over the stratospheric equator has a significant multiple peak seasonal variation. The primary seasonal peaks occur in February, March and April for the westerly phase of the QBO and the easterly phase peaks in June, July and August. (2) The correlation of stratospheric Arctic temperature and height with the solar radio flux shows statistical significance in February or July/August even if there is no stratified phase of QBO (easterly and westerly phases) involved. However, when the correlation was computed according to the stratified phase of QBO, the solar signals in both temperature and height fields are remarkably amplified in February and November under the westerly phase, but the signal in the height field is most significant only in August under the easterly phase. (3) The impact of the QBO and solar forcing on the stratospheric temperature and heights in the Arctic varies depending on the season. The impacts are also sensitive to the specific height of the QBO-defined level that is used, the specific period of the analysis and the dataset used.     

Combined solar and QBO effects on the modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere

We examine joint effects of the solar activity and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on modes of low-frequency variability of tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The winter months (December–March) are stratified by the solar activity into two (below/above median) classes, and each of these classes is subdivided by the QBO phase (west or east). The variability modes are determined by rotated principal component analysis of 500 hPa heights separately in each class of solar activity and QBO phase. Detected are all the modes known to exist in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar activity and QBO jointly affect the shapes, spatial extent, and intensity of the modes; the QBO effects are, however, generally weaker than those of solar activity. For both solar maxima and minima, there is a tendency to the east/west phase of QBO to be accompanied by a lower/higher activity of zonally oriented modes and increased meridionality/zonality of circulation. This means that typical characteristics of circulation under solar minima, including a more meridional appearance of the modes and less activity of zonal modes, are strengthened during QBO-E; on the other hand, circulation characteristics typical of solar maxima, such as enhanced zonality of the modes and more active zonal modes, are more pronounced during QBO-W. Furthermore, the zonal modes in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian sectors (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and North Asian pattern) shift southwards in QBO-E, the shift being stronger in solar maxima.     

On the solar/QBO effect on the interannual variability of total ozone and the stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe

Based on total ozone data from the World Ozone Data Center and stratospheric geopotential height data from the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University for the months of January through March for the time period of 1958–1996, the influence of the 11-year solar cycle and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on total ozone and the stratospheric circulation at 30 hPa over Northern Europe is investigated. The analysis is performed for different levels of solar activity. The relationship of the equatorial QBO with ozone and the stratospheric circulation over the study region exhibits unique features attributed to strong opposite connections between the equatorial zonal wind and ozone/stratospheric dynamics during periods of solar minimum and maximum. Using the Solar/QBO effect, a statistical extraction of the interannual variations of total ozone and stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe has been attempted. The variations extracted and observed for late winter show very good correspondence. The solar/QBO effect in total ozone and stratospheric dynamics over Northern Europe appears to be related to planetary wave activity.     

The sunspot cycle, the QBO, and the total ozone over Northeastern Europe: a connection through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation

The interaction between the factors of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle is considered as an separate factor influencing the interannual January–March variations of total ozone over Northeastern Europe. Linear correlation analysis and the running correlation method are used to examine possible connections between ozone and solar activity at simultaneous moment the QBO phase. Statistically significant correlations between the variations of total ozone in February and, partially, in March, and the sunspot numbers during the different phases of QBO are found. The running correlation method between the ozone and the equatorial zonal wind demonstrates a clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Modulation is clearer if the QBO phases are defined at the level of 50 hPa rather than at 30 hPa. The same statistical analyses are conducted also for possible connections between the index of stratospheric circulation C₁ and sunspot numbers considering the QBO phase. Statistically significant connections are found for February. The running correlations between the index C₁ and the equatorial zonal wind show the clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Based on the obtained correlations between the interannual variations of ozone and index C₁, it may be concluded that a connection between solar cycle – QBO – ozone occurs through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation.     

Implications for the low latitude cloud formations from solar activity and the quasi-biennial oscillation

We examined the effect of the 11-year solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the ～27-day solar rotational period detected in tropical convective cloud activity. We analyzed the data of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for AD1979–2004, dividing into four different cases by the combination of high and low solar activities in terms of the 11-year variation, and easterly and westerly stratospheric winds associated with QBO. As a result, ～27-day variation has been most significantly detected in high solar activity period around the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Based on correlation analysis, we find that solar rotation signal can explain 10–20% of OLR variability around the tropical warm pool region during the high solar activity period. The spatial distribution has been, however, apparently different according to the phases of QBO. It is suggested that the 11-year solar cycle and stratospheric QBO have a possibility to cause large-scale oceanic dipole phenomena.     

The response in the Pacific to the sun's decadal peaks and contrasts to cold events in the Southern Oscillation

van Loon et al. [2007. Coupled air–sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D02108, doi:10.1029/2006JD007378] showed that the Pacific Ocean in northern winter is sensitive to the influence of the sun in its decadal peaks. We extend this study by three solar peaks to a total of 14, examine the response in the stratosphere, and contrast the response to solar forcing to that of cold events (CEs) in the Southern Oscillation. The addition of three solar peak years confirms the earlier results. That is, in solar peak years the sea level pressure (SLP) is, on average, above normal in the Gulf of Alaska and south of the equator, stronger southeast trades blow across the Pacific equator and cause increased upwelling and thus anomalously lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since the effect on the Pacific climate system of solar forcing resembles CEs in the Southern Oscillation, we compare the two and note that, even though their patterns appear similar in some ways, they are particularly different in the stratosphere and are thus due to separate processes. That is, in July–August (JA) of the year leading into January–February (JF) of the solar peak years, the Walker cell expands in the Pacific troposphere, and the stratospheric wind anomalies are westerly below 25 hPa and easterly above, whereas this signal in the stratosphere is absent in CEs. Thus the large-scale east–west tropical atmospheric (Walker) circulation is enhanced, though not to the extent that it is in CEs in the Southern Oscillation, and the solar influence thus appears as a strengthening of the climatological mean regional precipitation maxima in the tropical Pacific. Additionally, CEs have a 1-year evolution, while the response to solar peaks extends across 3 years such that the signal in the Pacific SLP of the solar peaks is similar but weaker in the year leading into the peak and in the year after the peak. The concurrent negative SST anomalies develop during the year before the solar peak, and after the peak the anomalies are still present but are waning. In the stratosphere in solar peaks, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is amplified when it is in its westerly phase in the lower stratosphere and easterly phase above; and the QBO is suppressed when in its easterly phase below–westerly phase above. Such an association is not evident in CEs.     

Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, strong correlations between the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and calculated three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm vertical fluxes are indicated in December 1958–1976 and 1992–2006. These correlations between the interannual variations of the SST anomalies and the penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere are much less during the decadal sub-period 1976–1992 in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the decadal cold SST anomalies in the North Pacific. Interannual variations of the polar jet in the lower stratosphere in January are strongly associated with SST anomalies in the Aleutian Low region in December for the years with positive PDO index. This sub-period corresponds well with that of the violation of the Holton–Tan relationship between the equatorial Quasi-Beinnial Oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric circulation in the extra-tropics. It is shown that interannual and interdecadal variations of stratospheric dynamics, including stratospheric warming occurrences in January, depend strongly on changes of the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere over North Eurasia in preceding December. These findings give evidences of a large impact of the decadal SST variations in the North Pacific on wave activity in early winter due to changes of thermal excitation of planetary waves during distinct decadal periods. Possible causes of the decadal violation of the Holton–Tan relationship, its relation to the PDO and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere are discussed.     

Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation

We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.     

Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters

Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.     

北极涛动低空大气环流特征及其与太阳活动的联系

通过北极涛动AO正负位相时期北半球1000 hPa月平均位势高度、位势高度距平和气温月距平图对比分析可知,北极区域异常增暖时期对应着AO负位相时期,而北极区域异常偏冷时期对应着AO正位相时期,说明北极区域气温异常变化是决定AO异常变化的重要因子.逐次滤波法分析可知,冬季1月北极涛动现象表现出十分清楚的与太阳活动密切联系的准110a世纪周期和准22a年代际周期,具体表现为：（1）冬季1月北极涛动现象具有十分清楚的与太阳活动密切联系的准110a世纪周期.准110a世纪周期对于北极涛动指数的方差贡献率达到44.4%,是冬季1月北极涛动现象最显著的世纪际变化特征.（2）谱分析结果表明,滤除准110a世纪周期变化以后的1月北极涛动指数具有显著的22a周期,其方差贡献率达到18.5%,乃仅次于准110a世纪周期之后北极涛动指数年代际变化重要特征.对比分析表明,太阳活动尤其是太阳磁场磁性指数变化与1月北极涛动22a周期变化呈密切的反相关关系,二者变化趋势基本相反,即多数情况当太阳磁性指数MI由最低值转为上升以后都可引起北极涛动AO由最高值转为下降;当太阳磁性指数MI由最高值转为下降以后都可引起北极涛动AO由最低值转为上升.综上所述,北极涛动的准110a世纪周期变化、22a年代际周期变化对于北极涛动方差贡献率达到62.9%,标志着太阳活动是北极涛动的重要驱动因子.     

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the temperature in the lower stratosphere

Two temperature datasets are analyzed for quantifying the 11-year solar cycle effect in the lower stratosphere. The analysis is based on a regression linear model that takes into account volcanic, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Under solar maximum conditions, temperatures are generally warmer for low- and mid-latitudes than under solar minimum, with the effect being the strongest in northern summer. At high latitudes, the vortex is generally stronger under solar maximum conditions, with the exception of February and to a lesser extent March in the Northern Hemisphere; associated with this positive signal at high latitudes, there is a significant negative signal at the equator. Observations also suggest that contrary to the beginning of the winter, in February–March, the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is enhanced. A better understanding of the mechanisms at work comes from further investigations using the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. First, a consistent response in terms of temperature and wind is obtained. Moreover, considering Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence and residual circulation stream functions, we found an increased circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February during solar maxima, which results in more adiabatic warming at high latitudes and more adiabatic cooling at low latitudes, thus demonstrating the dynamical origin of the response of the low stratosphere to the solar cycle.     

大气准两年振荡的电离层效应

本文研究赤道异常逐日起伏程度的年变化规律,发现它与太阳活动及地磁活动呈微弱的负相关,但却受到QBO的明显调制,QBO东风相起伏加大,QBO西风相起伏减小.这一事实似乎表明,太阳爆发或磁暴不是产生赤道异常逐日起伏的主要原因;而上行行星波的扰动有可能是引起赤道异常逐日起伏的主要原因.     

The role of the stratosphere in Iberian Peninsula rainfall: A preliminary approach in February

This paper attempts to establish a connection between stratospheric anomalies in the North Pole and rainfall on the Iberian Peninsula through the occurrence of major midwinter warmings (MMWs) and cold events (CEs), taking February as a preliminary approach. We define the MMWs as the warmings which break down the polar vortex, whereas the CEs are the episodes in which the polar vortex remains cold and undisturbed. Both anomalies lead to a wind anomaly around the north polar stratosphere, which is connected with a shortly lagged tropospheric anomaly through a stratosphere–troposphere coupling in winter. A T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was used as an objective pattern classification method for identifying the main daily surface-level pressure (SLP) patterns for February for the 1961–1990 reference period. Subsequently, those February months with an MMW or a CE influence in the troposphere are identified in the whole study period (1958–2000) by means of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). Thus, performing the same analysis for the selected February months, new principal patterns for detecting changes in surface circulation structure and morphology are obtained. The results show a significant decrease in the westerlies and a southward shift of the storm tracks in Western Europe some weeks after an MMW occurrence, leading to an increase in precipitation in western Iberia and a slight decrease on the eastern Mediterranean fringe. The results are quite the opposite under a CE influence: the westerlies are strengthened and shifted northwards due to the displacement of the Atlantic anticyclone towards Central Europe; dry conditions are established throughout Iberia, except for the Mediterranean fringe, where precipitation shows a considerable increase due to the greater frequency of the northeasterly winds. Finally, an 11-year sunspot cycle–quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulation might be demonstrated in Iberian rainfall in February through the occurrence of these stratospheric anomalies.     

The signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the global stratosphere

The search for a signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the heights and temperatures of the lower stratosphere was previously successfully conducted for the northern hemisphere with a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin, covering four solar cycles. This work has been extended to the whole globe by means of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period 1968–1996. The re-analyses show that the signal exists in the southern hemisphere too, and that it is of nearly the same size and shape as on the northern hemisphere. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses yield higher correlations with the solar cycle than do the Berlin analyses for the same period, because the interannual variability is lower in the NCEP/NCAR data.The correlations between the solar cycle and the zonally averaged temperatures at the standard levels between 200 and 10 hPa are largest between the tropopause and the 25 km level, that is, in the ozone layer. This may be partly a direct effect in this layer, because of more absorber (ozone) and more ultraviolet radiation from the sun in the peaks of the 11-year solar cycle. However, it is more likely to be mainly an indirect dynamical consequence of UV absorption by ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere.The largest temperature correlations move with the sun from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward from winter to summer.     

On the Spectral Decomposition of Geopotential and Temperature Fields in the Stratosphere

The spectral structure of stratospheric fields (temperature and geopotential) is analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics in an effort to study the long-term behaviour of large-scale circulation patterns, as well as their connections to some extra-terrestrial effects. The daily meteorological data from the Free University Berlin (FUB) cover more or less the period 1976–1996 and are available for stratospheric levels of 50, 30 and 10 hPa. The analysis of the annual cycle of spherical harmonics is introduced, and changes of the principal wave components are compared with the changes in different sets of solar, geomagnetic and global circulation indices. This paper also deals with interannual variability with special emphasis on quasibiennial oscillations (QBO) and El Nino and Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Although this is a rather preliminary study, the decomposition of the stratospheric field into complex spherical harmonics seems to be a powerful technique in investigating and qualifying the response of the global atmospheric system to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, and in qualifying the relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and various oscillations such as QBO or ENSO, Using this technique, reasonable strong connections were found between wave numbers and interannual factors, and these connections were tentatively interpreted in terms of statistics. A very high degree of correlation was found for the four-trough shape of the polar vortex.     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).     

Seasonal and solar cycle variations of the auroral electrojet indices

Using hourly mean auroral electrojet indices for the past 20 years, we examine the seasonal and solar cycle variations of the AU and AL indices as well as the smaller time-scale fluctuations in these indices. The AU and AL indices maximize during summer and equinoctial months, respectively. By removing the effects of the solar conductance from the AU index, it is found that the electric field contribution to the AU index exhibits the same semiannual variation pattern as the AL index, indicating that the semiannual magnetic variations are controlled by the electric field. Since the auroral electrojets are mostly Hall currents flowing in the east–west direction, the fluctuations of the auroral electrojet indices can be interpreted in terms of fluctuations in the north–south component of the electric field and the Hall conductance. The AU fluctuation is largely due to that of the electric field, while the AL fluctuation is attributed to both the electric field and Hall conductance with their contributions being comparable. The high fluctuation of AL compared to that of AU is attributed to particle precipitation associated with substorm activity. However, the fluctuations of the electric field and conductance do not show any noticeable seasonal dependence. The variation pattern of the yearly mean AL index follows the mirror image of the AU index during the past 20 years, indicating that the absolute values of the two indices are proportional to each other. This suggests again that the electric field is the main modulator of magnetic disturbance. On the other hand, they show a tendency to become higher during the declining phase of the solar cycle. This is the same variation pattern confirmed from the aa index. However, the fluctuations of the electric field and the Hall conductance do not show any apparent dependence on the solar cycle.     

火山活动的周期性及其在若干气候要素中的反映

根据六百多年全球VEI 5级以上火山活动资料分析和谱分析以及与北半球地面气温、西太平洋高压SLP、北大西洋高压SLP和北大西洋西风漂流区SSTA对比分析得知:(1)全球强火山活动存在显著的88年左右和100年左右世纪尺度周期循环,二者对于VEI(i)原序列方差贡献率达到21.64%.还存在33年左右年代际尺度周期循环以...     

川滇地区应变率场分布及其变化特征研究

基于GPS多期复测资料, 利用最小二乘配置方法计算川滇地区应变参数, 分析该区域应变率场分布及其变化特征并探讨其分布与强震关系。 研究结果表明: ① 各时段应变率场空间分布的明显变化应属于大于GPS资料误差的真实地壳构造形变信息; ② 最大剪应变率及第一、 第二剪应变率的结果反映了走滑断裂对区域变形的显著控制; ③ 主应变率, 东西、 南北向应变率场动态结果反映的汶川地震孕震的空间尺度较大; ④ 在本区大致反映北东向与北西向剪切变形的第一剪应变率、 东西向应变率、 南北向应变率及最大剪应变率与6级以上地震对应较好。