Manifestation of solar and geodynamic activity in the dynamics of the Earth’s rotation

The relationships between different manifestations of solar and geomagnetic activity and the structural peculiarities of the dynamics of the pole wobble and irregularities in the Earth??s rotation are studied using singular spectrum analysis. There are two close major peaks and several lower ones in the same frequency range (1.1?C1.3 years) in the Chandler wobble (CW) spectrum. Components in the geomagnetic activity were distinguished in the same frequency band (by the Dst and Ap indices). Six- to seven-year oscillations in the Earth??s rotation rate with a complex dynamics of amplitude variations are shown in variations in geomagnetic activity. It is revealed that secular (decade) variations in the Earth??s rotation rate on average repeat global variations in the secular trend of the Earth??s geomagnetic field with a delay of eight years during the whole observation period.     

The 11-year solar-cycle effects on the temperature in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere: Part I—Assessment of observations

Three independent temperature datasets have been analyzed for quantifying the influence of the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the UV radiation. The datasets used include: US rocketsondes, the OHP lidar, and the global temperature database made by the successive SSU on the NOAA satellites, adjusted and provided by the UK Meteorological Office. These measurements cover the upper stratosphere and the mesosphere, where the direct photochemical effect is expected. The improvement of the analysis compared to previous ones was possible because the overall quality and the continuity of many data series have been checked more carefully during the last decade in order to look for anthropogenic fingerprints and the one used here have been recognized as the best series according to their temporal continuity. The analysis of the different data set is based on the same regression linear model. The 11-year solar temperature response observed presents a variable behavior, depending on the location. However, an overall adequate agreement among the results has been obtained, and thus the global picture of the solar impact in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere has been obtained and is presented here. In the tropics, a 1–2 K positive response in the mid and upper stratophere has been found, in agreement with photochemical theory and previous analyses. On the opposite, at mid-latitudes, negative responses of several Kelvin have been observed, during winters, in the analyses of the datasets analyzed here. In the mesosphere, at sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions, we observe a positive response all the year round increasing by a factor of two during winter.     

Variations in solar radiation in the solar activity cycle: Response of Earth’s atmospheric parameters (numerical modeling and analysis of observational data)

The results of a three-dimensional numerical simulation of changes in the temperature and wind within a height range of up to 100 km caused by changes in fluxes in the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the 23rd solar activity cycle (which was characterized by unusually low values of UV-radiation fluxes) and also of global changes in the ozone content are presented. The simulation results showed that the response of the temperature to variations in the UV radiation are substantially of a nonzonal character, which is caused by the presence in the model of sources of quasi-stationary waves corresponding to the observational data.     

Quasi-biennial variations of the total solar flux: Their manifestation in variations of the stratospheric wind and the Earth’s rotation velocity

A detailed representation of variations of the total solar flux I has been obtained by analyzing the regular measurements of this flux by the Nimbus-7 and other spacecrafts. In particular, quasi-biennial variations (QBVs) of the monthly average value 〈I〉 and standard deviation sI within a month interval have been revealed. It is remarkable that the QBVs of sI almost coincide in shape with the QBVs of many solar activity and ionospheric indices, and the QBVs of 〈I〉 are almost in antiphase with the variations of sI. The manifestation of the QBVs of 〈I〉 in some processes on the Earth has been already revealed. A relation between the QBVs of 〈I〉 for solar radiation (according to the Nimbus-7 and ACRIM-2 data) and the QBVs of the zonal stratospheric wind near the equator, as well as the QBVs of the Earth’s rotation velocity, has been found. Many of the considered QBV-processes on the Earth are seemingly attributed to the variations of the total solar flux.     

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past – the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately connected to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concepts pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.     

Response of currents in Earth’s and Saturn’s dayside magnetopause to a sudden change in the solar wind density

When the effect of a solar wind dynamic pressure pulse on the magnetospheric and ionospheric dynamics is studied, it is usually difficult to detect the effect of a sudden change in the density against the background of the other varying solar wind parameters, which often play a most pronounced role. Cases in which the solar wind plasma density gradient dominated in the dynamics of the different parameters of an interplanetary medium and its magnetic field are considered in this work. Variations in the Earth’s dayside magnetopause current caused by a change in the solar wind ion density are presented for two such cases (February 11 and January 11, 1997) based on the method developed by us previously. Variations in the dayside magnetopause current for collisions of the magnetosphere with corotating interacting flows in January 2004, studied in detail by us previously, are also presented for Saturn. The estimates are comparable with the current values in the transitional three-dimensional current systems of Saturn that were previously calculated by us.     

Sensitivity of the Earth’s middle atmosphere to short-term solar variability and its dependence on the choice of solar irradiance data set

We simulate the time evolution of the neutral and charged species in the terrestrial middle atmosphere using a 1-D radiative-convective model with interactive neutral and ion chemistry driven by four different sets of daily spectral solar irradiance (SSI) available in the literature for the year 2000. Obtained daily time series of ozone, hydroxyl and electron densities are used to calculate their sensitivity to the short-term SSI variability at 205 nm. All applied SSI data sets possess 27-day solar rotation cycle; however, its amplitude and phase as well as the correlation between considered SSI time series differ among data sets leading to the different behavior of the atmospheric response. Contrary, the ozone and hydroxyl sensitivities to the SSI changes during solar rotation cycle are almost identical for all applied SSI data sets in the stratosphere. In the mesosphere, the difference in correlation between SSI in Herzberg continuum and Lyman-α line in considered SSI data sets leads to substantial scatter of the sensitivity estimates based on 205 nm. Our results show that for the sensitivity analysis in the stratosphere based on the SSI at 205 nm any considered SSI data sets can be applied. For the mesosphere, where the sensitivity strongly varies among applied SSI data sets more robust results can be obtained using the sensitivity calculations based on the SSI in Lyman-α line.     

The angular velocity vectors of the main Eurasian domains in the phanerozoic and an increase in the Earth’s rotation period

Recent paleomagnetic studies and GPS-monitoring show that slow rotations of continental plates and differential rotations of separate domains inside them are important features of geophysics and geodynamics. The epicenter of rotation of contemporary Eurasia is located in the eastern Himalayas. To the second approximation, Eurasia is not a rigid plate because the angular velocities of its large domains vary several times, increasing from the periphery of the continent to the central domain, rotated. Paleomagnetic studies of the Phanerozoic rocks of ancient domains corroborate this regularity and the fact that continents in the Northern Hemisphere rotate, as a rule, clockwise, while in the Southern Hemisphere they rotate counter-clockwise, can be used to unambiguously determine the polarity of the pole from the Precambrian apparent pole wander paths (APWP). The majority of the ancient continental domains of contemporary Eurasia decrease the rotation velocity in Phanerozoic. According to the above model, their angular velocity vectors have components opposite in direction to the angular velocity vector of the proper rotation of the Earth. This factor, together with the known ocean tidal friction, resulted in a decrease in the rotational velocity of the Earth’s mantle on a geologic time scale.     

Streamer belt in the solar corona and the Earth’s orbit

It has been indicated that the cross section of the streamer belt in the solar corona and its extension in the heliosphere—heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS)—have the form of two radially oriented closely located (at a distance of d ≈ 2.0–2.5° in the heliocentric coordinate system) rays with increased and generally different densities. The angular dimensions of the rays are ≈d. The neutral line of the magnetic field in the corona and the related sector boundary in the Earth’s orbit are located between the peaks of densities of these two rays. In the events, during which the true sector boundary coincides with the heliospheric current sheet, the transverse structure of the streamer belt in the heliosphere (or the HPS structure) is quasistationary; i.e., this structure slightly changes when the solar wind moves from the Sun to the Earth in, at least, 50% of cases. A hypothesis that a slow solar wind, flowing in the rays with increased density of the streamer belt, is probably generated on the Sun’s surface rather than at the top of the helmet, as was assumed in [Wang et al., 2000], is put forward.     

Migration of sources of small earthquakes in the Garm region and variations in velocity of the Earth’s rotation

The spatial-temporal variations in localization of the sources of earthquakes with H ≥ 14 km are reviewed for the Garm region. The uneven distribution of such earthquakes is related to the block structure: their amount is higher in the weakened zones rather than in blocks. Three weakened zones are characterized by higher activity of deepened seismicity, which varies in time and increases before the earthquakes with K ≥ 12.5. The temporal variations in distribution of earthquake sources with depth allow a suggestion of the relation of the velocity of the Earth’s rotation and activity of deepened seismicity.     

The relation between solar activity and orientation of the solar wind electric field relative to the Earth’s magnetic moment

The relation of the Kp index of geomagnetic activity to the solar wind electric field (E _SW) and the projection of this field onto the geomagnetic dipole has been estimated. An analysis indicated that the southward component of the IMF vector (B _z < 0) is the main geoeffective parameter, as was repeatedly indicated by many researchers. The presence of this component in any combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters is responsible for a high correlation between such combinations and geomagnetic activity referred to by the authors of different studies. Precisely this field component also plays the main role in the relation between the Kp index and the relative orientation of E _SW and the Earth’ magnetic moment.     

Deformation processes in the lithosphere related to the nonuniformity of the Earth’s rotation

The series of observations conducted at the Baksan and Protvino deformation stations in the Northern Caucasus and the Central Russian Plain, respectively, and the length-of-day (LOD) data describing the variable rate of the Earth’s rotation are used to study the relation between the deformation processes in the lithosphere and the global geodynamics of the Earth over short time intervals. The methods applied are based on high-resolution spectral analysis, analysis of the coherence of the studied processes, and correlation analysis. A significant (95%) correlation is revealed between the local deformation fields at two remote observation stations, which proves the existence of a global component in the Earth’s deformation field that manifests itself at characteristic time intervals of up to 3–4 weeks. At the same level of significance, the correlation between the local deformation fields and variations in the rate of the Earth’s rotation has also been identified. It is shown that the found correlations in the tidal low-frequency range are caused by the direct impact of the long-period tidal loading (M _f and M _tm waves) on the lithosphere and the length-of-the-day (LOD). The global mechanisms giving rise to the correlation of these processes in the nontidal range require further study.     

Some sources of plasma inhomogeneities in the solar wind in front of the Earth’s magnetosphere

The origination of various plasma inhomogeneities in the magnetosheath in front of the Earth’s magnetosphere is analyzed within classical magnetohydrodynamics. The effect of directional discontinuities or tangential and rotational discontinuities of the solar wind on plasma is studied. The origination of inhomogeneities of the type of secondary MHD waves in the magnetosheath is shown; the former equalize plasma parameters when restoring the stationary state. The effect of a rotational discontinuity on the bow shock–Earth’s magnetosphere system is of special interest, with distinguishing of plasma inhomogeneities of the plateau type observed in the near-Earth space.     

Influence of solar activity on variations in the density of the Earth’s upper atmosphere

This article studies long-period variations in the Earth’s upper atmosphere density over several solar activity cycles, using long-term data on the evolution of motion of three artificial satellites (Intercosmos-19, Meteor-1-2, and Cosmos-1154) in orbits at heights of 400–1000 km. The time interval when the satellites were in the orbits covered three solar activity cycles (partly the 21st, completely the 22nd, and partly the 23rd). It is found that the variations in the average density of the upper atmosphere at heights of 400–600 km in the 1980–2000 period were governed by the changes in the solar activity level.     

Lunar–solar tide effects in the Earth’s crust and atmosphere

The gravitational interaction in the Earth–Moon–Sun system is considered from the standpoint of influencing the formation of time variations in the geophysical fields and some natural processes. The analysis of the results of instrumental observations revealed the main periodicities and cycles in the time variations of subsoil radon volumetric activity with the same periods as the vertical component of the variations of the tidal force. The amplitude modulation of seismic noise by the lunar-solar tide is demonstrated. It is shown that the intensity of relaxation processes in the Earth’s crust has a near-diurnal periodicity, whereas the spectrum of groundwater level fluctuations includes clearly expressed tidal waves. Based on the data on the tilts of the Earth’s surface, the role of tidal deformation in the formation of the block motions in the Earth’s crust is analyzed. A new approach is suggested for identifying tidal waves in the atmosphere by analyzing micropulsations of the atmospheric pressure with the use of adaptive rejection filters.     

Reconstruction of the Earth’s surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes,global warming in the last millennium,and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 1. Experimental data

The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However, the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods, when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature, the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations, and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated.     

Ionization of the earth’s atmosphere by solar and galactic cosmic rays

A brief review of the research of atmospheric effects of cosmic rays is presented. Numerical models are discussed, that are capable to compute the cosmic ray induced ionization at a given location and time. Intercomparison of the models, as well as comparison with fragmentary direct measurements of the atmospheric ionization, validates their applicability for the entire atmosphere and the whole range of the solar activity level variations. The effect of sporadic solar energetic particle events is shown to be limited on the global scale, even for the most severe event, but can be very strong locally in polar regions, affecting the physical-chemical properties of the upper atmosphere, especially at high altitudes. Thus, a new methodology is presented to study cosmic ray induced ionization of the atmosphere in full detail using realistic numerical models calibrated to direct observations.     

On the relation of variations in the travel times of seismic waves with the changes in the speed of the Earth’s rotation

The results of long-term sounding of the lithosphere by seismic waves from the deep-focus Hindu Kush earthquakes are presented. The travel time series of the first longitudinal wave on a fixed base are constructed for six seismic observation stations (SS) located on the Russian Platform (the Obninsk SS), on the Siberian Platform (the Eltsovka SS), on the Cis-Ural Trough (the Arti SS), in the Central-Ural Megazone (the Sverdlovsk SS), in the Transbaikalia (the Bodaibo SS), and in the Northern Tien Shan (the Przhevalsk SS). The time series duration in years for these stations ranged from 1964–1970 to 2007. The travel time series of seismic waves for the stations indicated are characterized by multi-slope negative linear trends caused by changes in the stress-strain state of rocks. From the comparison of the trend slopes at different stations it follows that the changes in the stress conditions within the lithosphere are relatively weak in the aseismic regions of the Russian and Siberian Platforms and in the Ural Megazone, whereas in the seismically active regions of Tien Shan, Transbaikalia and the Cis-Ural Trough they are more pronounced. The correlation has been observed between the time series trends of the average annual travel times of seismic waves and the time series of the Earth’s rotation speed. The strongest correlation between the series can be seen for the stations, located on the platforms with weak manifestations of both seismicity and active geodynamic processes. Within the long-term periods of deceleration and acceleration of the Earth’s rotation, travel times of seismic waves are decreased and increased, respectively.     

Reconstruction of the Earth’s surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes,global warming in the last millennium,and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 2. Experimental data analysis

The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However, the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods, when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature, the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations, and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated.