鄞县ML3.9和ML4.7地震的震源参数

１９９３年２月２６日和１９９４年９月７日在浙江宁波鄞县发生了ＭＬ３．０和ＭＬ４．７地震。本文使用华东地区部分台站的地震记录资料给出了这两次地震的震源机制和震源参数。其主要结果是：该区的主压应力方向约为北东６０°；３．０级地震的破裂方向为ＳＳＷ，破裂速度为２．７ｋｍ／ｓ，破裂尺度为０．３９ｋｍ；４．７级地震的破裂方向为ＮＷＷ，破裂速度为２．３ｋｍ／ｓ，破裂尺度为０．４１ｋｍ。     

华北地区MS≥6.5级地震震源断层参数的研究

本文根据地震和地震构造等资料，研究华北地区公元1300年以来MS≥6.5级地震的发震断裂的基本参数.利用1966年以来隆尧、海城、渤海和唐山等有仪器记录的地震的相关参数进行回归分析得出了地震烈度Ⅷ度区长轴长度与余震区长轴长度的回归关系式及震级与震源体破裂长度的回归关系式.用余震区长轴长度代替震源体的破裂长度，从而给出各次地震的震源断层破裂长度.利用地震测深的地壳结构构造剖面、地震序列的震源分布、壳内低速层和地壳上部的构造、盆地构造与居里面分布和已知地震震源分布等资料推断了震源破裂的上下界.基于一定的合理假定推导出了断层滑动角的估计方法，并应用于本研究区，得出了各次事件的断层滑动角.     

1988年澜沧地震(M=7.6)震源时空扩展参数的研究

通过远震记录ＳＨ波位移脉冲的二阶矩的计算,得到了１９８８年澜沧地震（ＭＳ＝７．６）震源扩展参数．采用最小二乘原理反演了震源过程的持续时间Ｔ、断层长度Ｌ和方向性参数Ｄ,并得到Ｔ＝１１．７７ｓ、Ｄ＝１５．０５ｋｍ·ｓ、Ｌ＝７０．９４ｋｍ．结果表明,１９８８年澜沧地震为对称双侧破裂,两侧破裂长度均为３５ｋｍ．结合余震分布分析表明,在两个主震破裂区的连接部位存在着一个主震时未破裂的区域．由于主震时的位错,应变将重新调整．连接部位具有足够的强度,以储存可以激发较大余震的应变能     

西北太平洋地区的一些深震震源的研究

利用波形拟合方法和剪切破裂源模型，研究了发生于西北太平洋地区的mb5.5，h＞400 km的13个深震，并得到其震源参数:震源深度，地震断层面，滑错角，破裂扩展速度，破裂长度，破裂扩展方向角及地震矩．发现这些深震均可用剪切破裂源表示，且具有简单的震源时间函数，大多数深震的断层面走向与俯冲带走向一致，特别是在俯冲带深部，有使俯冲带倾角变小的趋势，利用分布点源模型可以使波形拟合结果更好，但由分布点源得不到与单侧剪切破裂源相一致的总体性的破裂传播方向．      

1988年澜沧地震(M=7.6)震源时空扩展参数的研究

通过远震记录SH波位移脉冲的二阶矩的计算,得到了1988年澜沧地震(Ms=7.6)震源扩展参数．采用最小二乘原理反演了震源过程的持续时间T、断层长度L和方向性参数D,并得到T=11.77 s、D=15.05 kms、L=70.94 km.结果表明,1988年澜沧地震为对称双侧破裂．两侧破裂长度均为35 km.结合余震分布分析表明,在两个主震破裂区的连接部位存在着一个主震时未破裂的区域．由于主震时的位错,应变将重新凋整．连接部位具有足够的强度,以储存可以激发较大余震的应变能．      

1995年7月20日怀来盆地ML4.1地震序列震源参数的精确测定

1995年7月20日在北京西北的怀来盆地发生了一次ML4.1地震．这次地震震中位于40.326N，115.448E，震源深度5.5ｋｍ．在此主震之后该地区微震活动变得十分活跃．中-欧合作怀来数字地震台网记录并精确定位了这一地震序列．以８次余震的记录作为经验格林函数提取了ML4.1地震的震源时间函数，并通过叠加得到了信噪比较高的平均结果．结果表明，这次ML4.1地震由一强一弱两次事件组成．各个台站的震源时间函数显示出明显的地震多普勒效应．用试错法得到了ML4.1地震的第一次事件的破裂长度为0.44ｋｍ，破裂速度为4.0km/s；第二次事件破裂长度为0.25km，破裂速度3.0km/s．两次事件的破裂传播方向与破裂面走向的夹角（逆时针为正）分别为140和90，两次事件相距0.57km，第二次破裂发生于第一次破裂开始之后0.09ｓ．用单个经验格林函数提取了怀来盆地ML4.1地震序列中另外13次ML2.1地震的震源时间函数．结果表明，这些小震均由单次事件组成，震源时间函数宽度为0.05～0.16ｓ．用远场地动位移频谱测量法得到了0.9ML4.1的２５次地震的地震矩、应力降和破裂半径．地震矩和应力降都呈现出随震级而单调递增的规律性变化．在0.9ML2.4范围内，求得的破裂半径与震级没有显示出明显的相关性，可以认为，在这样小的震级范围内用本文所用资料已无法准确分辨小震的破裂尺度．      

用地震标定律研究丽江7.0级地震的破裂过程

本根据Ｈｅａｓｋｅｌｌ二维矩形地震破裂模式，导出了以ω立方的波谱衰减，在分析地震破裂过程特征、考虑三个主要的相似性假定基础上，即假定地震满足断层面几何相似、应力环境相似和动力学相似条件，研究了大小地震相似性问题的标度分析，建立了地震破裂和源参数之间的标定律关系。用云南地区２０多年中数百个地震的地震矩Ｍ０、面波震级Ｍｓ和近震震级ＭＬ系统以及有关的地震参数，建立了适用于云南地区的地震标定律关系。由此     

用复合型法反演震源破裂过程的研究

本文探讨了用P波频谱研究不对称双侧破裂方式与正交破裂方式的方法,研究了用复合型法反演震源参数的可行性。 用这种方法反演了1966年3月8日邢台马兰6.8级地震及1966年3月22日东旺6.7级地震的震源参数。通过与用网格尝试法反演的结果及余震分布等进行比较,认为这种反演方法除了与过去的网格尝试法类似,可以得到最优拟合参数解外,还可以大大减少计算量,实现了网格尝试法难以实现的更复杂的震源模式的反演。 本文还用此方法研究了1962年3月19日广东河源6.1级地震及1969年7月26日广东阳江6.4级地震的破裂过程。研究结果表明:河源地震的破裂方式是正交三侧破裂。北西方向为主破裂,破裂长度8km,破裂速度0.6km/s. 南东方向破裂长度较短,约2km,破裂速度2.0km/s.正交侧指向南西,破裂长度3km,破裂速度0.5km/s,这个结果与余震分布图所显示的图象很相象。阳江地震的破裂方式是不对称双侧破裂。主破裂方向为北东东,破裂长度14km,破裂速度0.8km/s;朝南西西向的破裂长度5km,破裂速度0.6km/s。      

丹江口水库及邻区地震震源参数研究

在讨论震源参数和Ｍ震级关系以及论述利用地方震尾波估算地震矩方法的基础上，尝试性地系统估算了丹江口水库及邻区内４３次ＭＬ≥２．５级地震的震源参数，并讨论了丹江口水库地震的特征。丹江口水库及邻区地震震源参数的初步分析表明：丹江口及邻区属低应力降地区。水库蓄水的附加引张应力效应可能使得丹江口水库中局部以引张应变为主的地区应变迅速增加，地震应力降高于该区一般地震原有水平、从而诱发地震。此外，丹江口水库地震的破裂长度可能和震源机制的破裂类型有关。     

2001年1月2 6日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)Ｍem>Ssub>7.8地震时空破裂过程

从全球数字地震台网的长周期记录中，选择了震中距小于90的27个台站的54个P波震相和44个S波震相资料．首先，用波形反演方法确定了2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特(Gujarat)ＭS7.8地震的地震矩张量、震源机制、震源时间函数和时空破裂过程等震源参数．通过矩张量反演，并根据Kutch Mainland断层的走向、地震烈度的空间分布、余震震源的空间分布和震害的空间分布，确认2001年1月26日印度古杰拉特ＭS7.8地震的发震断层的走向为92、倾角为58、滑动角为62，即一走向近东-西向、断层面向南倾斜、以逆冲为主的左旋-逆断层．这次地震所释放的地震矩为3.51020 Nm，矩震级ＭW＝7.6．然后，借助合成地震图，采用频率域求谱商的方法，得到了依赖于台站方位的27个P波震源时间函数、22个S波震源时间函数以及平均的P波震源时间函数和S波震源时间函数．对震源时间函数的分析表明，这次地震是一次连续的破裂事件，开始比较急遽，但结束比较迟缓，总持续时间约19 s．最后，以所提取的P波和S波震源时间函数为资料，采用时间域的反演技术得到了断层面上滑动的时空分布．滑动量在断层面上的静态分布表明，断层面上的最大滑动量约为7 m．断层面上的最大应力降约为30 MPa，平均应力降约为7 MPa．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域在走向方向长85 km，在断层面倾斜方向宽约60 km(相应地，在深度方向约51 km)．破裂向东扩展约50 km，向西扩展约35 km．滑动量大于0.5 m的区域的主要部分呈椭圆形，其长轴取向与断层滑动方向一致．表明此区域破裂扩展的方向即是断层错动的方向．这种现象对于走滑断层情形是多见的，但对逆冲断层情形却少见．断层面上初始破裂点以东、以上部分面积大于初始破裂点以西、以下部分的面积，这是破裂非对称性的表现，表明破裂具有自西向东、自下向上单侧破裂的特征．从滑动率随时空变化的快照可以看出，滑动率在第4 s达到最大值，此时滑动率约为0.2 m/s，滑动基本上发生在破裂起始点及其周围．从第6 s开始，起始点的破裂基本结束，破裂开始向外围扩展．破裂向西的扩展速度明显小于向东的扩展速度．在第15 s，这种环形的扩展基本结束．自16 s以后，主要是一些零星的破裂点分布在破裂区的外围．从滑动量随时空变化的快照看，破裂自起始点开始后，逐渐向四周扩展．主要的破裂(滑动量大于5 m的区域)在6～10 s，具有明显的自西向东、向上的单侧破裂特征．在第11～13 s，破裂的西端向西、向下有所扩展．整个破裂过程持续约19 s．在整个破裂过程中的平均破裂速度约为3.3 km/s．      

An asperity model to simulate rupture along heterogeneous fault surfaces

A model has been developed to simulate the statistical and mechanical nature of rupture on a heterogeneous strike-slip fault. The model is based on the progressive failure of circular asperities of varying sizes and strengths along a fault plane subjected to a constant far-field shear displacement rate. The basis of the model is a deformation and stress intensity factory solution for a single circular asperity under a unidirectional shear stress. The individual asperities are unified through the fault stiffness and the far-field stress and displacement. During fault deformation asperities can fail and reheal, resulting in changes in the local stresses in the asperities, stress drops, and changes in the stiffness of the fault. Depending on how the stress is redistributed following asperity failure and on the strenghts of the neighboring asperities an earthquake event can be the failure of one or more asperities. Following an earthquake event seismic source parameters such as the stress drop, energy change, and moment magnitude are calculated. Results from the model show a very realistic pattern of earthquake rupture, with reasonable source parameters, the proper magnitude-frequency behavior, and the development of characteristic earthquakes. Also the progression ofb-values in the model gives some insight into the phenomenon of self-organized criticality.     

Characterization of Stress Drops on Asperities Estimated from the Heterogeneous Kinematic Slip Model for Strong Motion Prediction for Inland Crustal Earthquakes in Japan

Dense strong motion observation networks provided us with valuable data for studying strong motion generation from large earthquakes. From kinematic waveform inversion of seismic data, the slip distribution on the fault surface of large earthquakes is known to be spatially heterogeneous. Because heterogeneities in the slip and stress drop distributions control the generation of near-source ground motion, it is important to characterize these heterogeneities for past earthquakes in constructing a source model for reliable prediction of strong ground motion. The stress changes during large earthquakes on the faults recently occurring in Japan are estimated from the detailed slip models obtained by the kinematic waveform inversion. The stress drops on and off asperities are summarized on the basis of the stress change distributions obtained here. In this paper, we define the asperity to be a rectangular area whose slip is 1.5 or more times larger than the average slip over the fault according to the previous study for inland crustal earthquakes. The average static stress drops on the asperities of the earthquakes studied here are in the range 6?C23?MPa, whereas those off the asperities are below 3?MPa. We compiled the stress drop on the asperities together with a data set from previous studies of other inland earthquakes in Japan and elsewhere. The static stress drop on the asperity depends on its depth, and we obtained an empirical relationship between the static stress drop and the asperity??s depth. Moreover, surface-breaking asperities seemed to have smaller stress drops than buried asperities. Simple ground motion simulations using the characterized asperity source models reveal that deep asperities generate larger ground motion than shallow asperities, because of the different stress drops of the asperities. These characteristics can be used for advanced source modeling in strong ground motion prediction for inland crustal earthquakes.     

A statistical damage model with implications for precursory seismicity

Acoustic emissions prior to rupture indicate precursory damage. Laboratory studies of frictional sliding on model faults feature accelerating rates of acoustic emissions prior to rupture. Precursory seismic emissions are not generally observed prior to earthquakes. To address the problem of precursory damage, we consider failure in a fiber-bundle model. We observe a clearly defined nucleation phase followed by a catastrophic rupture. The fibers are hypothesized to represent asperities on a fault. Two limiting behaviors are the equal load sharing p = 0 (stress from a failed fiber is transferred equally to all surviving fibers) and the local load sharing p = 1 (stress from a failed fiber is transferred to adjacent fibers). We show that precursory damage in the nucleation phase is greatly reduced in the local-load sharing limit. The local transfer of stress from an asperity concentrates nucleation, restricting precursory acoustic emissions (seismic activity).     

障碍体和凹凸体对地震矩的影响

本文利用具有非均匀剪切应力分布的圆盘状裂缝问题的解,定量计算了障碍体和凹凸体对地震矩的影响.我们发现,除非障碍体的尺寸很小或很接近于整个断层的尺寸,含有障碍体的断层的地震矩,大致为具有均匀应力降的等面积断层的地震矩的40%.由此可以推知,在障碍体的这种尺寸范围内,视应力降大致也是△Af=SA-f的40%.这里SA是远场应力,f是残余摩擦应力.另外,已存在滑动带对于凹凸体破坏的地震矩有明显的放大作用,这种作用在凹凸体尺寸较小时特别显著.例如,当凹凸体半径是整个断层半径的2/10时,凹凸体上的矩被放大7倍多;当其半径为整个断层半径的1/10时,凹凸体的矩将被放大约30倍. 文中还比较了三维效应和二维效应的差异.我们发现,Mx0/M0c在三维情形对障碍体尺寸的变化并不敏感,这是与二维情形很不相同的.这里,Mx0是具有障碍体的断层破裂所产生的地震矩,M0c是相应的均匀断层破裂的矩.所以,二维分析不适用于具有障碍体的三维断层.然而,在分析已存在滑动带对凹凸体破裂的矩的影响时,平面应变结果与三维结果差异并不很大.      

Stress Transfer During Pressure Solution Compression of Rigidly Coupled Axisymmetric Asperities Pressed Against a Flat Semi-Infinite Solid

In a previous work, we developed a numerical model of compression by pressure solution (PS) of a single axisymmetric asperity pressed against a flat semi-infinite solid. The dissolution rate at any point along the contact and at any time t was determined by (1) computing the normal stress distribution from the current shape of the asperity, and (2) solving the diffusion equation inside the fluid-saturated solid-solid interface, including local dissolution source terms corresponding to the stress field previously determined. The change in shape of the asperity during an infinitesimal time interval δt can then be calculated and the entire procedure repeated as many times as desired. Our results showed that, as the contact flattens and grows during PS, the initial elastic deformation is partially relaxed and the stress transferred from the contact center to the edge. Our goal in the present paper is to demonstrate that, among a population of asperities, stress can also be transferred from one contact to another and that the overall compaction rate can be significantly affected by this process. For this purpose we extended our previous numerical model to simulate PS of two rigidly coupled spherical asperities simultaneously pressed against a flat semi-infinite solid. We considered two end-member cases: 1) transfer of stress to a newly created, not initially present contact, 2) transfer of stress between asperities with different sizes. In both cases, stress was transferred from the most stressed asperity to the least, and, the overall PS displacement rate was reduced. Thus, formation of new contacts and heterogeneous distribution of asperity sizes, which are both expected to exist in rough fractures with self-affine aperture or in heterogeneous granular materials with variable grain-packing geometry, may significantly slow down PS creep compaction.     

A Condition for Super-shear Rupture Propagation in a Heterogeneous Stress Field

— We have used numerical simulations with the boundary integral equation method to investigate a mechanism to excite super-shear rupture velocities in a homogeneous stress field including an asperity of increased initial stress. When the rupture, with the slip-weakening distance selected to generate sub-Rayleigh speed, encounters the asperity it either accelerates to super-shear velocities or maintains the sub-Rayleigh speed, dependent on the size and amplitude of the asperity. Three classes of rupture propagation are identified: the velocity (a) for the most narrow asperities increases slowly towards the Rayleigh wave speed, (b) for intermediate width of the asperities jumps to super-shear values for a short distance but then decreases to sub-Rayleigh wave speeds, and (c) for the widest asperities jumps to super-shear values and pertains to values between the S- and P-wave velocities. The transitions between the three classes of rupture propagation are characterized by very narrow (critical) ranges of rupture resistance. If the size of the initial asperity is smaller than critical, it becomes difficult for rupture to propagate with super-shear velocities even if the initial stress level is high. Our results suggest that stress variation along the rupture path helps homogenize the rupture velocity and propagate with sub-Rayleigh wave speeds.     

诱发前震预报方法的检验——1981—992年中国大陆地震活动图象

大强固区之间的相互作用和震后运动可以引起触发,强固区破裂引起相邻强固区加载。震后运动可以在大范围内发生并引起相邻区域的不均匀应变积累。观测表明大震后首先发生中等地震的地点正好是下次大震的位置,所以任何一个大地震发生都提供了一个探寻临界破裂区的良好时机。依据1960—1980年资料总结的中期地震危险性估测方法称为“诱发前震图象”,1981—1992年的地震资料完全证实了该方法的可靠性。     

Multiasperity fault model and the nature of short-period subsources

We suggest to consider the breaking of an asperity,i.e., a small contact patch between fault walls, as a typical subsource producing an elementary short-period radiation pulse from a source of a large earthquake. Based on the results ofDas andKostrov we propose formulas to describe amplitudes and spectra of acceleration for a multiasperity fault/source model. The stress drop over an asperity is determined in several ways; the estimates agree to give the average value of several hundred bar. Theoretical acceleration spectral shapes for the case of similar asperities agree with the observed ones, they reproduce such features as lower-frequencyf ¹ slope, peak, and high-frequency cutoff. The statistical stress-drop distribution over the population of asperities, and also the related distribution of peak accelerations are discussed. There distributions are found to be the power-law ones with exponent near to 2. This means that acceleration peaks are formed normally by breaking of individual asperities. We consider small earthquakes as produced by breaking of single asperities, this idea explains the observed correlation between the upper cutoff frequency of acceleration spectrum and the typical characteristic frequency of small earthquakes.     

Study on Potential Strong Earthquake Risks Around the Mabian Area,Southern Sichuan

Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years,we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and identified the risky fault-segments for potential strong and large earthquakes in the future.The method of analysis is a combination of spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1) The spatial distribution of b-values indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments.(2) Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone.These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels.Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county,in Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone.These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future.Besides them,the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang,as another potential strongearthquake source.(3) An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes.(4) The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.     

Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motion from Crustal Earthquake Scenarios

We developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions based on a characterization of the source model for future crustal earthquakes. From recent developments of waveform inversion of strong motion data used to estimate the rupture process, we have inferred that strong ground motion is primarily related to the slip heterogeneity inside the source rather than average slip in the entire rupture area. Asperities are characterized as regions that have large slip relative to the average slip on the rupture area. The asperity areas, as well as the total rupture area, scale with seismic moment. We determined that the areas of strong motion generation approximately coincide with the asperity areas. Based on the scaling relationships, the deductive source model for the prediction of strong ground motions is characterized by three kinds of parameters: outer, inner, and extra fault parameters. The outer fault parameters are defined as entire rupture area and total seismic moment. The inner fault parameters are defined as slip heterogeneity inside the source, area of asperities, and stress drop on each asperity based on the multiple-asperity model. The pattern of rupture nucleation and termination are the extra fault parameters that are related to geomorphology of active faults. We have examined the validity of the earthquake sources constructed by our recipe by comparing simulated and observed ground motions from recent inland crustal earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe and 2005 Fukuoka earthquakes.