Generalization of the results of long-term strainmeter and GPS observations for intraplate regions

The measurements of contemporary deformations in Asia in the region of active seismic processes stretching from Northern Tien Shan through Altai and Sayan Mountains to Lake Baikal have been carried out for a few decades by strainmeters and tiltmeters. Recently, these works were expanded by the network measurements by the methods of space geodesy. Studying the contemporary displacements and deformations of the Earth’s crust is necessary for solving various problems on a wide range of spatial and time scales from exploring the contemporary deformations of the tectonic plates and present-day seismicity to estimating the man-made loads on the geological medium. The measurements of the deformations are conducted by different methods with short and long baselines, on the surface and at different depths. Based on the obtained data, it is possible to analyze the strain rates at different frequencies and to compare them with the level of seismic activity in the region. In recent decades, the seismic zone located in the south of the Siberian platforms experienced a few strong (M = 6.3–7.5) earthquakes, during which the deformation and displacement fields were captured. South of this region, the displacement fields during the earthquakes with the magnitude above 8 were recorded by the space geodetic methods in China. By excluding the coseismic effects, one can estimate the tectonic component of the displacements and deformations.     

Seismicity and seismotectonic deformations of the crust in the Southern Baikal basin

This paper addresses the seismicity of the Southern Baikal basin, where the M _w = 6.0 earthquake of 1999 was the strongest over the period of instrumental observations in this region. Focal mechanisms of background earthquakes and aftershocks are analyzed in relation to faults mapped on flanks of and within the basin. Based on a supplemented catalog of focal mechanisms, the value and direction of seismotectonic strain are evaluated. The results show that the territory to the west of the transverse Angara fault (the Mishikhinskaya depression) experiences deformation of pure extension, while the E-W basin segment west of the fault is subjected to deformation of extension with shear (the transtension regime). The crustal deformation directions as determined from GPS measurements and seismological observations are found to agree well. The average seismotectonic strain rate of the crust amounts to 2.95 × 10^?9 yr^?1, which is about an order of magnitude smaller than the value obtained from geodetic observations.     

Study of the recent geodynamic processes in the Kopet-Dag region

The time series of the uniquely long geodetic observations of recent geodynamic processes in the Kopet-Dag region are analyzed. The regional observations of contemporary vertical movements cover a 75-year period; the zonal and local systems of leveling measurements, which provide an increased degree of spatiotemporal detail (the distance between the benchmarks is less than 1 km and the measurements are repeated with a frequency of once per month to two times per annum), have been functioning for 50 years. It is shown that during the last 40–50 years, the regional stress field in the forefront of the Main Kopet-Dag thrust and collision zone of the Turanian and Iranian plates is quasi static. The annual average trend rate of strains estimated from a set of the time series of uniquely long geodetic observations is (3–5) × 10^?8 yr^?1, which is only one to two amplitudes of tidal deformations of the solid Earth. The local deformations in the fault zone reach the rates that are by 1.5–2 orders of magnitude higher than in the block part of the region. It is found that the segments of the Earth’s surface within the axial part of the depression experience persistent uplifting, which indicates that they do not follow the scheme of inherited evolution characteristic of the fault-block structures of the region. It is demonstrated that these anomalous uplifts can be caused by the variations in the weak seismicity in the zone of the North Ashgabat Fault.     

Source parameters of the earthquakes of the Baikal rift system

The dynamic parameters of the earthquake source—the seismic moment, the moment magnitude, the source radius, the stress drop, and the amplitude of displacement—are determined by the amplitude Fourier spectra of the body shear waves (S-waves) for 62 earthquakes of the Baikal rift system with the energy class of K _P = 9.1–15.7. In the calculations I used the classical Brune model. The seismic moment of the earthquakes being investigated changes from 3.65 × 10¹¹ N m to 1.35 × 10¹⁸ N m, and the radii of earthquake sources vary from 390 m to 1.84 km. The values of the drop in stress Δσ grow with an increase in the seismic moment up to 1.7 × 10⁸ Pa. For the group of weak earthquakes (M _w = 1.7–3.3), extremely low values of the drop in stress 10³–10⁴ Pa are observed. The maximum amplitude of displacement in the source amounts to 5.95 m. The empirical equations between the seismic moment and the other dynamic parameters of the source are determined. The regional dependence of the seismic moment and energy class is obtained: log M ₀ ± 0.60 = 1.03K _P + 3.17. The character of the relationship between the seismic moment and the corner frequency indicates that the classical scaling law of the seismic spectrum for the earthquakes in question is not fulfilled. The obtained estimates of the dynamic parameters are in satisfactory agreement with the published data concerning the analogous parameters of the other rift zones, which reflects the general regular patterns of the destruction of the lithosphere and the seismicity in the extension zones of the lithosphere.     

The August 27, 2008, M w = 6.3 Kultuk earthquake (South Baikal): The stress-strain state of the source area from the aftershock data

We consider the results of reconstructing the stress-strain state of the Earth’s crust in South Baikal from the focal mechanism data for the Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008 (M _w = 6.3) and its aftershocks. The source parameters of the main shock were determined by calculating the seismic moment tensor. The focal mechanism solutions of 32 aftershocks (M _w ≥ 2.3) were obtained through the deployment of a local seismic network at South Baikal. It is found that the main shock and first aftershocks (August–September) gave rise to the activation of latitudinal fragments of the segmented near-edge fault, and the sources of the consequent aftershocks were dominated by the NW-striking planes related to the small intrabasin structures. The calculations of seismotectonic deformations based on the data on the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes show that the area of activation is dominated by the transtension regime (with deformation in the form of extension with shear). The epicentral and hypocentral fields of the aftershocks and the mechanisms of their sources reflect the complex tectonic structure of the source zone of the Kultuk earthquake, which exhibits a clear subvertical zonality of the local seismically active volume and a wedge-shaped area of crustal destruction.     

Nonlinear geodynamics of the Baikal rift system: An evolution scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation

This is an attempt to analyze the current lithospheric stress pattern in the Baikal rift in terms of nonlinear dynamics as an open self-organizing system in order to gain more insights into the general laws of regional seismicity. According to the suggested approach, the stress pattern inferred from seismic moments of 70,000 M_LH ≥ 2.0 events that occurred in the region between 1968 and 1994 is presented as a phase portrait in the phase spaces of the seismic moments. The obtained phase portrait of the system evolution fits well a scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation where stress bifurcations account for the frequency of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates probability of such a bifurcation (a catastrophe of stress), i.e., there is growing risk that M ≈ 7 events may happen in the region within a few years.     

Intraplate seismicity of antarctica and tectonic implications

We present a comprehensive study of the seismicity of the Antarctic plate for the period 1925–1980. The total seismic energy released during this period in the interior of the plate, 3.2 × 10²² ergs, is compared to figures for the African plate, of similar kinematics and size, and to the neighboring Nazca plate. We conclude that Antarctic seismicity is comparable to that of other plates, thus refuting the claim that a surrounding ring of spreading ridges hampers transmission of tectonic stress and leaves it stress-free, and clearly showing the importance of ridge-push as a driving mechanism for the plates. In the souteastern Pacific Basin, it is shown that the line of maximum age in the plate, which is the locus of previous positions of the triple junction, is a line of preferential stress release, along with more conventional features, e.g. fracture zones. In the Indian Ocean, we study a 1973 earthquake northeast of Kerguelen (M_s = 5.5): its depth (45 km), tensional mechanism, and low stress suggest that it represents a magmatic process related to the nearby hotspot, and possibly involving the pipeline structure proposed by Morgan.     

The 2008 Kultuk earthquake with M w = 6.3 in the south of Baikal: Spatial-temporal analysis of seismic activation

The results of investigating the data of stationary and field observations in the epicentral zone of the Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008 with M _w = 6.3 localized south of Baikal are presented. The seismic activation amounting to 1790 aftershocks with K _p ?? 4 (M _w ?? 0.9) affected a part of the general fault bounding the southwestern coast of the lake and shallower intrabasin structures. It was established through the cluster analysis that the main shock was located at the periphery of the cloud of the concentrated seismicity component, and three main clusters reflecting a complex character of rupture in the earthquake source were identified in the zone of aftershocks. Owing to a high accuracy of aftershock hypocenters determinations (ERZ ?? 1.2 km), the local character of the seismisity-generating zones was revealed. Based on the method of mapping seismic regime parameters, it was established that zones of reduced fractionality are recognizable in the central part of the source area; in this case, the entire periphery, except for the southeastern direction (where the main shock epicenter is located), is characterized by a high fractionality, which also points to the complex character of the rupture in the source. On the whole, the aftershock sequence under consideration showed the activation of the southwestern flank of the Southern Baikal region, which remained passive for more than one century, and demonstrated destructive features of the Earth??s crust.     

Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.     

Coal Mining Induced Seismicity in the Ruhr Area, Germany

Over the last 25 years mining-induced seismicity in the Ruhr area has continuously been monitored by the Ruhr-University Bochum. About 1,000 seismic events with local magnitudes between 0.7 ≤ M _L ≤ 3.3 are located every year. For example, 1,336 events were located in 2006. General characteristics of induced seismicity in the entire Ruhr area are spatial and temporal correlation with mining activity and a nearly constant energy release per unit time. This suggests that induced stresses are released rapidly by many small events. The magnitude–frequency distribution follows a Gutenberg–Richter relation which is a result from combining distributions of single longwalls that themselves show large variability. A high b-value of about 2 was found indicating a lack of large magnitude events. Local analyses of single longwalls indicate that various factors such as local geology and mine layout lead to significant differences in seismicity. Stress redistribution acts very locally since differences on a small scale of some hundreds of meters are observed. A regional relation between seismic moment M ₀ and local magnitude M _L was derived. The magnitude–frequency distribution of a single longwall in Hamm was studied in detail and shows a maximum at M _L = 1.4 corresponding to an estimated characteristic source area of about 2,200 m². Sandstone layers in the hanging or foot wall of the active longwall might fail in these characteristic events. Source mechanisms can mostly be explained by shear failure of two different types above and below the longwall. Fault plane solutions of typical events are consistent with steeply dipping fracture planes parallel to the longwall face and nearly vertical dislocation in direction towards the goaf. We also derive an empirical relation for the decay of ground velocity with epicenter distance and compare maximum observed ground velocity to local magnitude. This is of considerable public interest because about 30 events larger than M _L ≥ 1.2 are felt each month by people living in the mining regions. Our relations, for example, indicate that an event in Hamm with a peak ground velocity of 6 mm/s which corresponds to a local magnitude M _L between 1.7 and 2.3 is likely to be felt within about 2.3 km radius from the event.     

Stresses and seismicity at the present stage of evolution of the Baikal rift zone lithosphere

The paper presents results of studying stresses and seismicity of the lithosphere in the Baikal rift zone at the present (instrumental) stage of its evolution. These results are well consistent with the theory of self-organization of complex dynamic systems and can be used for the classification of certain features and properties of the Baikal rift seismogenic system studied. Application of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems to the analysis of stresses and seismicity allowed us to develop a concept of a complex spatiotemporal structure of the stress state of the lithosphere and seismicity in the region. In terms of this concept, the distribution of strong earthquakes in time is explained in terms of bifurcations (catastrophes) of stresses in the rift zone. Extrapolation of the results indicates that a stress catastrophe in lithosphere of the rift zone can take place in the next few years years, which increases the probability of occurrence of strong (M ≈ 7) earthquakes in the Baikal region. A model with bifurcation of triple equilibrium most consistent with the phase image of regional stresses is proposed as a scenario of the stress state evolution in the lithosphere of the Baikal rift zone.     

Source process of the 1990 Gonghe,China, earthquake and tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau

TheM _s =6.9 Gonghe, China, earthquake of April 26, 1990 is the largest earthquake to have been documented historically as well as recorded instrumentally in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau. The source process of this earthquake and the tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau are investigated using geodetic and seismic data. The leveling data are used to invert the focal mechanism, the shape of the slipped region and the slip distribution on the fault plane. It is obtained through inversion of the leveling data that this earthquake was caused by a mainly reverse dip-slipping buried fault with strike 102°, dip 46° to SSW, rake 86° and a seismic moment of 9,4×10¹⁸ Nm. The stress drop, strain and energy released for this earthquake are estimated to be 4.9 MPa, 7.4×10^–5 and 7.0×10¹⁴ J, respectively. The slip distributes in a region slightly deep from NWW to SEE, with two nuclei, i.e., knots with highly concentrated slip, located in a shallower depth in the NWW and a deeper depth in the SEE, respectively.Broadband body waves data recorded by the China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN) for the Gonghe earthquake are used to retrieve the source process of the earthquakes. It is found through moment-tensor inversion that theM _s =6.9 main shock is a complex rupture process dominated by shear faulting with scalar seismic moment of the best double-couple of 9.4×10¹⁸ Nm, which is identical to the seismic moment determined from leveling data. The moment rate tensor functions reveal that this earthquake consists of three consecutive events. The first event, with a scalar seismic moment of 4.7×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 0–12 s, and has a focal mechanism similar to that inverted from leveling data. The second event, with a smaller seismic moment of 2.1×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 12–31 s, and has a variable focal mechanism. The third event, with a sealar seismic moment of 2.5×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 31–41 s, and has a focal mechanism similar to that inverted from leveling data. The strike of the 1990 Gonghe earthquake, and the significantly reverse dip-slip with minor left-lateral strike-slip motion suggest that the pressure axis of the tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau is close to horizontal and oriented NNE to SSW, consistent with the relative collision motion between the Indian and Eurasian plates. The predominant thrust mechanism and the complexity in the tempo-spatial rupture process of the Gonghe earthquake, as revealed by the geodetic and seismic data, is generally consistent with the overall distribution of isoseismals, aftershock seismicity and the geometry of intersecting faults structure in the Gonghe basin of the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau.Contribution No. 96 B0006 Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, Beijing, China.     

Migration of seismic activity during the 1998 volcanic unrest at Iwate volcano,northeastern Japan,with reference to P and S wave velocity anomaly and crustal deformation

We describe the seismicity at Iwate volcano, northeastern Japan, during the volcanic unrest of 1998 with reference to a three-dimensional P and S wave velocity model from tomographic analysis. The abnormal seismic activity beneath Iwate volcano started under the caldera in February, 1998 and migrated westward in the period February to August, 1998. Previous geodetic modeling [Sato and Hamaguchi, Chikyu Monthly 21 (1999) 312–317] suggested the growth of a dike in the time of the seismic activity. Comparing the seismicity and dike extension with the tomographic images of the P and S wave velocity structure, we find that the trace of the growing dike coincides with the region of the high V_p and high V_p/V_s ratio beneath the volcano. The seismic and geodetic data are consistent with an intrusion of magma or other fluid under the caldera in 1998. Another pressure source causing the predominant crustal deformation at Iwate volcano was detected from geodetic data, which was located in the region with high V_p/V_s ratio under the western end of the volcano through the period from February to August. It is suggested that the activation of the point pressure source probably associated with the inflation of a hot fluid reservoir relate to a geothermal region adjacent to the western edge of the volcano.     

Seismic moment tensor of Pribaikalye earthquakes from the surface-wave amplitude spectra

The method of surface-wave amplitude spectra inversion for the seismic moment tensor (SMT) is implemented and tested in the Pribaikalye region. The SMTs are calculated for 39 events with M _w = 4.4–6.3, which occurred in the region in 2000–2011. Based on the obtained data, the seismotectionic deformations of the crust are estimated in two seismically active areas-the Northern Pribaikalye and northeastern Baikal rift zone. It is found that on a level of moderate-magnitude events, the region is dominated by the regimes of subhorizontal northwestern extension and strike-slip faulting, which reflects the long-term trends in the stress field of the crust in these parts of the rift.     

Seismic Empirical Relations for the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, and their Usefulness for Seismic Risk Assessment

Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M _w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations.     

Seismicity and Casing Failures Due to Steam Stimulation in Oil Sands

—This paper describes observations of seismicity and casing failures associated with steam stimulation operations at Imperial Oil Ltd.’s Cold Lake oil field in Alberta, Canada. A total of 11 oil-producing pads were monitored over a 1–2 year period using 3-component geophones cemented at depths ranging from 160 m to 400 m and data acquisition systems with a flat frequency response up to 1.5 kHz. Most of the seismicity was detected during the steaming operations and was located in the formation overlying the oil-bearing layer. Some activity was observed in the shales above, however, the reservoir itself showed almost no evidence of seismicity. The estimated seismic moment of the observed events was in the range 10⁵–10⁷ N·m (?2.7 < M < ?1.3). According to a theoretical model (Talebi et al., 1998) and in situ observations, the seismic source corresponding to casing failure events should be well described by a dipole registering seismic moment in the order of 2 · 10⁶ N·m. Seismic signals of a total of four observed casing failures were analyzed. The partial failures produced seismic moments slightly lower than this value while total failures were stronger by about one order of magnitude. The use of the SV/SH amplitude ratio, in conjunction with accurate source locations, provided a robust technique for the detection of casing failures.     

Episodes of high correlation between annual rates of earthquakes: The Baikal Rift Zone

Correlation analysis techniques were used to study variations in the annual rates N of completely reported earthquakes with energy class K ≥ 8 that occurred from 1964 to 2001 in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ), in three subregions within that zone, and in six areas. This correlation analysis of samples of annual rates of earthquakes N with different observation periods revealed two statistically significant episodes of short-lived synchronization between the seismic processes in the BRZ, in the late 1960s and in the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The 1970–1980 episode stands out because of its duration and the highest correlation level; this makes it the dominant phenomenon in the Baikal Rift seismicity synchronization. The observed synchronization episodes between annual rates of earthquakes show that the seismic process was activated at about the same time in different subregions of the BRZ, thus producing short-lived coherent increases in seismicity rates.     

Correlation of earthquake occurrence rates in the Baikal region and mongolia: Episodes of synchronism

Variations in annual numbers of earthquakes (the earthquake occurrence rate) that hit the Baikal region and Mongolia during the period from 1964 through 2001 are studied in this work. Correlation analysis of the different-length series of annual numbers N of earthquakes of representative energy classes makes it possible to reveal the effects of synchronous changes in the earthquake occurrence rate in seven regions and eleven areas in the Mongolia-Baikal region, located far apart. The analysis of the shock occurrence rate revealed episodes of short-period synchronization of seismic processes in the Mongolia-Baikal region at the end of the 1960s, early in the 1980s, and in the middle of the 1990s. The episode of synchronization in the earthquake occurrence rate in the early 1980s is observed in all the territories under study, but the episode at the end of the 1960s is less distinctly seen in Mongolia and is revealed mainly in the data series with a length of three years. The synchronization in the seismicity in Mongolia and in the southern PreBaikal region in 1995 requires further investigations, involving the dynamic parameters of the earthquake sources. The observed synchronism in the annual number of earthquakes indicates that the seismic processes become active nearly simultaneously over the huge territory of the Mongolia-Baikal region and produce a short-term coherent change in the shock occurrence rate in the spatial-temporal distribution of the seismicity. The observed spatial and temporal correlation in the seismicity is a sign of the seismogenic link between the Baikal region and Mongolia.     

Microseismicity induced during fluid-injection: A case study from the geothermal site at Groß Schönebeck,North German Basin

The technical feasibility of geothermal power production in a low enthalpy environment will be investigated in the geothermal site at Groß Schönebeck, North German Basin, where a borehole doublet was completed in 2007. In order to complete the Enhanced Geothermal System, three massive hydraulic stimulations were performed. A seismic network was deployed including a single 3-component downhole seismic sensor at only 500 m distance to the injection point. Injection rates reached up to 9 m³/min and the maximum injection well-head pressure was as high as ～60 MPa. A total of 80 very small (?1.8 < M _W < ?1.0) induced seismic events were detected. The hypocenters were determined for 29 events. The events show a strong spatial and temporal clustering and a maximum seismicity rate of 22 events per day. Spectral parameters were estimated from the downhole seismometer and related to those from other types of induced seismicity. The majority of events occurred towards the end of stimulation phases indicating a similar behavior as observed at similar treatments in crystalline environments but in our case at a smaller level of seismic activity and at lower magnitudes.