预报第23周平滑月平均太阳黑子数的一种方法

利用已知的22个完整太阳活动周平滑月平均黑子数的记录，对正在进行的太阳周发展趋势给出了预测方法，并应用于第23周，同时与其他预报方法的结果进行了比较。     

Sunspot groups at high latitude

Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle.     

An Electron Density Model above the Sunspot from a Mapping of NOAA 7260 at 17 GHz

The brightness temperature distribution of microwave emission in a solar active region generally shows a ring structure, with a dip at the centre. However, no dip was found in the Nobeyama Radioheliograph left handed circular polarization (LCP) image on 1992 August 18; instead, there was a peak. This is a completely LCP source with zero right-handed circular polarization (RCP). We examine this structure in terms of the joint effect of gyroresonance and bremsstrahlung mechanism with a raised electron density above the central part of the sunspot, and the commonly assumed temperature and vertical dipole magnetic field models. The raised electron density is found to be 1.4 × 1011 cm-3 at the chromosphere base.     

Wavelet Analysis of Several Important Periodic Properties in the Relative Sunspot Numbers

We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.     

Prediction of Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.     

A Study of the Hinode Observations of the Bipolar Moving Magnetic Features in Sunspot Penumbrae

By using the monochromatic images and magnetograms obtained with the satellite Hinode, 35 pairs of bipolar moving magnetic features (MMFs) in sunspot penumbrae are studied in the following three aspects: the morphological characteristics, velocities of motion and responses in low atmospheric layers. Then the following conclusions are drawn. (1) The bipolar MMFs appear in pairs of positive and negative polarities, are located in the midst of the approximately vertical magnetic fields in spot penumbrae, and move toward the outer boundaries of penumbrae. This indirectly justifies that the bipolar MMFs originate in the horizontal magnetic fields of penumbrae. In the time intervals of 2-8 hours and at the same positions, there appear the bipolar MMFs with similar morphologial characteristics and velocities of motion. This povides an evidence which supports the model of magnetic lines in the shape of sea serpent. (2) In the process of motion of bipolar MMFs there may appear brightenings in the photospere and chromosphere, and this implies that the middle and low layers of solar atmosphere are heated by the bipolar MMFs. (3) The sites of occurrence of bipolar MMFs and the distribution of penumbral magnetic field agree with the structural characteristics of uncombed sunspot penumbrae.     

Sunspot numbers based on historic records in the 1610s: Early telescopic observations by Simon Marius and others

Hoyt & Schatten (1998) claim that Simon Marius would have observed the sun from 1617 Jun 7 to 1618 Dec 31 (Gregorian calendar) all days, except three short gaps in 1618, but would never have detected a sunspot – based on a quotation from Marius in Wolf (1857), but mis‐interpreted by Hoyt & Schatten. Marius himself specified in early 1619 that for one and a half year... rather few or more often no spots could be detected... which was never observed before (Marius 1619). The generic statement by Marius can be interpreted such that the active day fraction was below 0.5 (but not zero) from fall 1617 to spring 1619 and that it was 1 before fall 1617 (since August 1611). Hoyt & Schatten cite Zinner (1952), who referred to Zinner (1942), where observing dates by Marius since 1611 are given but which were not used by Hoyt & Schatten. We present all relevant texts from Marius where he clearly stated that he observed many spots in different form on and since 1611 Aug 3 (Julian) = Aug 13 (Greg.) (on the first day together with Ahasverus Schmidnerus); 14 spots on 1612 May 30 (Julian) = Jun 9 (Greg.), which is consistent with drawings by Galilei and Jungius for that day, the latter is shown here for the first time; at least one spot on 1611 Oct 3 and/or 11 (Julian), i.e. Oct 13 and/or 21 (Greg.), when he changed his sunspot observing technique; he also mentioned that he has drawn sunspots for 1611 Nov 17 (Julian) = Nov 27 (Greg.); in addition to those clearly datable detections, there is evidence in the texts for regular observations. For all the information that can be compared to other observers, the data from Marius could be confirmed, so that his texts are highly credible. We also correct several shortcomings or apparent errors in the database by Hoyt & Schatten (1998) regarding 1612 (Harriot), 1615 (Saxonius, Tard´e), 1616 (Tard´e), 1617–1619 (Marius, Riccioli/Argoli), and Malapert (for 1618, 1620, and 1621). Furthermore, Schmidnerus, Cysat, David & Johann Fabricius, Tanner, Perovius, Argoli, and Wely are not mentioned as observers for 1611, 1612, 1618, 1620, and 1621 in Hoyt & Schatten. Marius and Schmidnerus are among the earliest datable telescopic sunspot observers (1611 Aug 3, Julian), namely after Harriot, the two Fabricius (father and son), Scheiner, and Cysat. Sunspots records by Malapert from 1618 to 1621 show that the last low‐latitude spot was seen in Dec 1620, while the first high‐latitude spots were noticed in June and Oct 1620, so that the Schwabe cycle turnover (minimum) took place around that time, which is also consistent with the sunspot trend mentioned by Marius and with naked‐eye spots and likely true aurorae. We consider discrepancies in the Hoyt & Schatten (1998) systematics, we compile the active day fractions for the 1610s, and we critically discuss very recent publications on Marius which include the following Maunder Minimum. Our work should be seen as a call to go back to the historical sources. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

无力场模型黑子上空的纵向磁场梯度

本文按常α无力场模型计算了1980年10月23日Boulder 2744活动区前导黑子的纵向磁场随高度的变化,并与用CIV 1548谱线观测得到的色球一日冕过渡区的磁场资料相结合,求得CIV 1548发射区的有效高度。这些结果与文献[4]中对同一黑子用势场模型推求的结果有很大差别。从而表明,势场和无力场在某些方面导致的结果是极不相同的。鉴于观测已表明活动区上空存在电流的事实,在活动区磁场的模拟中,特别是在强扭曲活动区磁场的计算中,应当避免采用势场,而尽可能采用无力场模型。     

Historical Dataset Reconstruction and a Prediction Method of Solar 10.7 cm Radio Flux

We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7.     

Anisotropic Beam Model for the Spectral Observations of Radio Burst Fine Structures on 1998 April 15

A fine structure consisting of three almost equidistant frequency bands was observed in the high frequency part of a solar burst on 1998 April 15 by the spectrometer of Beijing Astronomical Observatory in the range 2.6-3.8GHz. A model for this event based on beam-anisotropic instability in the solar corona is presented. Longitudinal plasma waves are excited at cyclotron resonance and then transformed into radio emission at their second harmonic.The model is in accordance with the observations if we suppose a magnetic field strength in the region of emission generation of about 200G.     

Spectral Analysis of the Flare of 1998 November 11 based on the Multi—cloud Model

1 INTRODUCTIONAlthough coronal mass ejection (CME) as a representation of solar eruptive events has be-come a most popular subject in solar physics since the rapid development of space observations,the study of solar flares remains attractive. Modern space and ground-based observations showthat solar flares are loop phenomena, in general, they are composed of several loops forminga loop system. There are two kinds of loops: X-ray loops and post-flare loops; the former arehot loops observ…     

磁光效应与太阳黑子磁场结构

本文在考虑磁光效应条件下,根据对斯托克斯参数转移方程组求得的数值解,计算了单极太阳黑子的线偏振讯号的单色像,并与美国马歇尔空间飞行中心的观测资料进行了对比,结果表明,径向黑子磁场模型给出与观测相似的单色像,而旋涡形模型导致与观测有显著差异的图像。因此可以认为径向模型更接近于实际情况。     

太阳活动区的模糊分类与活动性预测

运用模糊聚类分析的方法，研究太阳活动区特性。根据Hα、软X射线耀斑与黑子群各项特征因子的数据，进行标准化处理，分别运用模糊理论中的夹角余弦法，算术平均最小法进行标定，构造模糊相似矩阵与等价矩阵，根据模糊动态聚类分析方法，确定不同λ阈值，按照活动性强弱，对24个活动区进行分类。理论计算结果表明，不同等级类型的活动区强度预测与活动区实际活动性相一致，作为太阳活动水平预报，模糊聚类分析也是一种有效的方法。     

Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.     

Statistical Analysis of Decimetric Radio Bursts,Flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections

A statistical analysis of decimetric radio bursts (RBs), X-ray flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is carried out. We consider all radio bursts recorded by the Cracow Solar Radio Telescope from the beginning of 1996 until the end of 2004. It is found that the decimetric radio bursts are associated and strongly correlated with X-ray flares. Correlation coefficients between RBs durations and the maximal fluxes of the radio bursts and flares are found to be 0.60 and 0.87, respectively. We also demonstrated that a significant population of the decimetric radio bursts are associated with CMEs. The correlation coefficient between the maximal radio flux density multiplied by the duration of the RBs versus velocity multiplied by width of CMEs is found to be 0.55.     

用自激励门限自回归分析方法模拟和预报太阳黑子数的长期变化

本文用一种新方法——自激励门限自回归分析方法对太阳黑子相对数年平均值进行拟合和预报检验,并对未来第22周逐年年均值作出预报。 目激励门限自回归分析模型的形式如下: 在对1956至1985年逐年太阳黑子相对数年均值的预报检验中,最大拟会误差为40.6,最小拟合误差为0.3,平均拟合误差为±12.5。 对1986至1997年逐年太阳黑子相对数年均值的预报见表(4)。定出第21周极小在1986年或1987年,极大在1990或1991年,极大值R_M=81.2±16.2。     

Distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface and low-degree p-modes

The frequencies of solar p-modes are known to change over the solar cycle. There is also recent evidence that the relation between frequency shift of low-degree modes and magnetic flux or other activity indicators differs between the rising and falling phases of the solar cycle, leading to a hysteresis in such diagrams. We consider the influence of the changing large-scale surface distribution of the magnetic flux on low-degree ( l ≤3) p-mode frequencies. To that end, we use time-dependent models of the magnetic flux distribution and study the ensuing frequency shifts of modes with different order and degree as a function of time. The resulting curves are periodic functions (in simple cases just sine curves) shifted in time by different amounts for the different modes. We show how this may easily lead to hysteresis cycles comparable to those observed. Our models suggest that high-latitude fields are necessary to produce a significant difference in hysteresis between odd- and even-degree modes. Only magnetic field distributions within a small parameter range are consistent with the observations by Jiménez-Reyes et al. Observations of p-mode frequency shifts are therefore capable of providing an additional diagnostic of the magnetic field near the solar poles. The magnetic distribution that is consistent with the p-mode observations also appears reasonable compared with direct measurements of the magnetic field.     

A New Model for Propagating Parts of EIT Waves: A Current Shell in a CME

EIT waves are observed in EUV as bright fronts. Some of these bright fronts propagate across the solar disk. EIT waves are all associated with a flare and a CME and are commonly interpreted as fast-mode magnetosonic waves. Propagating EIT waves could also be the direct signature of the gradual opening of magnetic field lines during a CME. We quantitatively addressed this alternative interpretation. Using two independent 3D MHD codes, we performed nondimensional numerical simulations of a slowly rotating magnetic bipole, which progressively result in the formation of a twisted magnetic flux tube and its fast expansion, as during a CME. We analyse the origins, the development, and the observability in EUV of the narrow electric currents sheets that appear in the simulations. Both codes give similar results, which we confront with two well-known SOHO/EIT observations of propagating EIT waves (7 April and 12 May 1997), by scaling the vertical magnetic field components of the simulated bipole to the line of sight magnetic field observed by SOHO/MDI and the sign of helicity to the orientation of the soft X-ray sigmoids observed by Yohkoh/SXT. A large-scale and narrow current shell appears around the twisted flux tube in the dynamic phase of its expansion. This current shell is formed by the return currents of the system, which separate the twisted flux tube from the surrounding fields. It intensifies as the flux tube accelerates and it is co-spatial with weak plasma compression. The current density integrated over the altitude has the shape of an ellipse, which expands and rotates when viewed from above, reproducing the generic properties of propagating EIT waves. The timing, orientation, and location of bright and faint patches observed in the two EIT waves are remarkably well reproduced. We conjecture that propagating EIT waves are the observational signature of Joule heating in electric current shells, which separate expanding flux tubes from their surrounding fields during CMEs or plasma compression inside this current shell. We also conjecture that the bright edges of halo CMEs show the plasma compression in these current shells.