Effects of Geometries and Substructures of ICMEs on Geomagnetic Storms

To better understand geomagnetic storm generations by ICMEs, we consider the effect of substructures (magnetic cloud, MC, and sheath) and geometries (impact location of flux-rope at the Earth) of the ICMEs. We apply the toroidal magnetic flux-rope model to 59 CDAW CME–ICME pairs to identify their substructures and geometries, and select 20 MC-associated and five sheath-associated storm events. We investigate the relationship between the storm strength indicated by minimum Dst index \((\mathrm{Dst}_{\mathrm{min}})\) and solar wind conditions related to a southward magnetic field. We find that all slopes of linear regression lines for sheath-storm events are steeper (\({\geq}\,1.4\)) than those of the MC-storm events in the relationship between \(\mathrm{Dst}_{\mathrm{min}}\) and solar wind conditions, implying that the efficiency of sheath for the process of geomagnetic storm generations is higher than that of MC. These results suggest that different general solar wind conditions (sheaths have a higher density, dynamic and thermal pressures with a higher fluctuation of the parameters and higher magnetic fields than MCs) have different impact on storm generation. Regarding the geometric encounter of ICMEs, 100% (2/2) of major storms (\(\mathrm{Dst}_{\mathrm{min}} \leq -100~\mbox{nT}\)) occur in the regions at negative \(P_{Y}\) (relative position of the Earth trajectory from the ICME axis in the \(Y\) component of the GSE coordinate) when the eastern flanks of ICMEs encounter the Earth. We find similar statistical trends in solar wind conditions, suggesting that the dependence of geomagnetic storms on 3D ICME–Earth impact geometries is caused by asymmetric distributions of the geoeffective solar wind conditions. For western flank events, 80% (4/5) of the major storms occur in positive \(P_{Y}\) regions, while intense geoeffective solar wind conditions are not located in the positive \(P_{Y}\). These results suggest that the strength of geomagnetic storms depends on ICME–Earth impact geometries as they determine the solar wind conditions at Earth.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Turbulence and Heating in the Flank and Wake Regions of a Coronal Mass Ejection

As a coronal mass ejection (CME) passes, the flank and wake regions are typically strongly disturbed. Various instruments, including the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO), the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), and the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP), observed a CME close to the east limb on 26 October 2013. A hot (\({\approx}\,10~\mbox{MK}\)) rising blob was detected on the east limb, with an initial ejection flow speed of \({\approx}\, 330~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). The magnetic structures on both sides and in the wake of the CME were strongly distorted, showing initiation of turbulent motions with Doppler-shift oscillations enhanced from \({\approx}\, \pm 3~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) to \({\approx}\, \pm 15~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) and effective thermal velocities from \({\approx}\,30~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) to \({\approx}\,60~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\), according to the CoMP observations at the Fe?xiii line. The CoMP Doppler-shift maps suggest that the turbulence behaved differently at various heights; it showed clear wave-like torsional oscillations at lower altitudes, which are interpreted as the antiphase oscillation of an alternating red/blue Doppler shift across the strands at the flank. The turbulence seems to appear differently in the channels of different temperatures. Its turnover time was \({\approx}\,1000\) seconds for the Fe 171 Å channel, while it was \({\approx}\,500\) seconds for the Fe 193 Å channel. Mainly horizontal swaying rotations were observed in the Fe 171 Å channel, while more vertical vortices were seen in the Fe 193 Å channel. The differential-emission-measure profiles in the flank and wake regions have two components that evolve differently: the cool component decreased over time, evidently indicating a drop-out of cool materials due to ejection, while the hot component increased dramatically, probably because of the heating process, which is suspected to be a result of magnetic reconnection and turbulence dissipation. These results suggest a new turbulence-heating scenario of the solar corona and solar wind.     

Star-formation rate in compact star-forming galaxies

We use the data for the \(\text{H}\beta\) emission-line, far-ultraviolet (FUV) and mid-infrared 22 μm continuum luminosities to estimate star formation rates \(\langle \mbox{SFR} \rangle \) averaged over the galaxy lifetime for a sample of about 14000 bursting compact star-forming galaxies (CSFGs) selected from the Data Release 12 (DR12) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The average coefficient linking \(\langle \mbox{SFR} \rangle \) and the star formation rate \(\mbox{SFR}_{0}\) derived from the \(\text{H}\beta\) luminosity at zero starburst age is found to be 0.04. We compare \(\langle \mbox{SFR} \rangle \mbox{s}\) with some commonly used SFRs which are derived adopting a continuous star formation during a period of \({\sim}\,100~\mbox{Myr}\), and find that the latter ones are 2–3 times higher. It is shown that the relations between SFRs derived using a geometric mean of two star-formation indicators in the UV and IR ranges and reduced to zero starburst age have considerably lower dispersion compared to those with single star-formation indicators. We suggest that our relations for \(\langle \mbox{SFR} \rangle \) determination are more appropriate for CSFGs because they take into account a proper temporal evolution of their luminosities. On the other hand, we show that commonly used SFR relations can be applied for approximate estimation within a factor of \({\sim}\,2\) of the \(\langle \mbox{SFR} \rangle \) averaged over the lifetime of the bursting compact galaxy.     

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Resulting from Earth-Directed CMEs Using SOHO and ACE Combined Data During Solar Cycle 23

In this work a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO) and then studied by in situ observations from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, are presented in a new catalog for the time interval 1996?–?2009 covering Solar Cycle 23. Specifically, we determine the characteristics of the CME which is responsible for the upcoming ICME and the associated solar flare, the initial/background solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions before the arrival of the CME, the conditions in the sheath of the ICME, the main part of the ICME, the geomagnetic conditions of the ICME’s impact at Earth and finally we remark on the visual examination for each event. Interesting results revealed from this study include the high correlation coefficient values of the magnetic field \(B_{z}\) component against the Ap index (\(r = 0.84\)), as well as against the Dst index (\(r = 0.80\)) and of the effective acceleration against the CME linear speed (\(r = 0.98\)). We also identify a north–south asymmetry for X-class solar flares and an east–west asymmetry for CMEs associated with strong solar flares (magnitude ≥ M1.0) which finally triggered intense geomagnetic storms (with \(\mathrm{Ap} \geq179\)). The majority of the geomagnetic storms are determined to be due to the ICME main part and not to the extreme conditions which dominate inside the sheath. For the intense geomagnetic storms the maximum value of the Ap index is observed almost 4 hours before the minimum Dst index. The amount of information makes this new catalog the most comprehensive ICME catalog for Solar Cycle 23.     

Spectropolarimetric Observations of Solar Noise Storms at Low Frequencies

A new high-resolution radio spectropolarimeter instrument operating in the frequency range of 15?–?85 MHz has recently been commissioned at the Radio Astronomy Field Station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics at Gauribidanur, 100 km north of Bangalore, India. We describe the design and construction of this instrument. We present observations of a solar radio noise storm associated with Active Region (AR) 12567 in the frequency range of \({\approx}\,15\,\mbox{--}\,85~\mbox{MHz}\) during 18 and 19 July 2016, observed using this instrument in the meridian-transit mode. This is the first report that we are aware of in which both the burst and continuum properties are derived simultaneously. Spectral indices and degree of polarization of both the continuum radiation and bursts are estimated. It is found that

1. i)
   Type I storm bursts have a spectral index of \({\approx}\,{+}3.5\),
    
2. ii)
   the spectral index of the background continuum is \({\approx}\,{+}2.9\),
    
3. iii)
   the transition frequency between Type I and Type III storms occurs at \({\approx}\,55~\mbox{MHz}\),
    
4. iv)
   Type III bursts have an average spectral index of \({\approx}\,{-}2.7\),
    
5. v)
   the spectral index of the Type III continuum is \({\approx}\,{-}1.6\), and
    
6. vi)
   the degree of circular polarization of all Type I (Type III) bursts is \({\approx}\,90\%\) (\(30\%\)).
    

The results obtained here indicate that the continuum emission is due to bursts occurring in rapid succession. We find that the derived parameters for Type I bursts are consistent with suprathermal electron acceleration theory and those of Type III favor fundamental plasma emission.

     

Dynamics of Large-Scale Solar-Wind Streams Obtained by the Double Superposed Epoch Analysis: 3. Deflection of the Velocity Vector

This work is a continuation of our previous articles (Yermolaev et al. in J. Geophys. Res.120, 7094, 2015 and Yermolaev et al. in Solar Phys.292, 193, 2017), which describe the average temporal profiles of interplanetary plasma and field parameters in large-scale solar-wind (SW) streams: corotating interaction regions (CIRs), interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs, including both magnetic clouds (MCs) and ejecta), and sheaths as well as interplanetary shocks (ISs). Changes in the longitude angle, \(\varphi\), in CIRs from ?2 to \(2^{\circ}\) agree with earlier results (e.g. Gosling and Pizzo, 1999). We have also analyzed the average temporal profiles of the bulk velocity angles in sheaths and ICMEs. We have found that the angle \(\varphi\) in ICMEs changes from 2 to \(-2^{\circ}\), while in sheaths it changes from ?2 to \(2^{\circ}\) (similar to the change in CIRs), i.e. the angle in CIRs and sheaths deflects in the opposite sense to ICMEs. When averaging the latitude angle \(\vartheta\) on all the intervals of the chosen SW types, the angle \(\vartheta\) is almost constant at \({\sim}\,1^{\circ}\). We made for the first time a selection of SW events with increasing and decreasing \(\vartheta\) and found that the average \(\vartheta\) temporal profiles in the selected events have the same “integral-like” shape as for \(\varphi\). The difference in \(\varphi\) and \(\vartheta\) average profiles is explained by the fact that most events have increasing profiles for the angle in the ecliptic plane as a result of solar rotation, while for the angle in the meridional plane, the numbers of events with increasing and decreasing profiles are equal.     

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22–23

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986–2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger (\({\sim }130\) to \({\sim }190\) days), quasi-period (\({\sim }200\) to \({\sim }374\) days), and quasi-biennial periodicities (\({\sim }1.20\) to \({\sim }3.27\) years) during the combined solar cycles 22–23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of \({\sim }1.43\) years and for solar flare index of \({\sim }1.41\) year, and galactic cosmic ray, \({\sim }1.35\) year, during combined solar cycles 22–23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22–23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (\(\hbox {Rc} = 2.43\hbox {GV}\)) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.     

Relative equilibria of the restricted three-body problem in curved spaces

We use a formulation of the N-body problem in spaces of constant Gaussian curvature, \({\kappa }\in \mathbb {R}\), as widely used by A. Borisov, F. Diacu and their coworkers. We consider the restricted three-body problem in \(\mathbb {S}^2\) with arbitrary \({\kappa }>0\) (resp. \(\mathbb {H}^2\) with arbitrary \({\kappa }<0\)) in a formulation also valid for the case \({\kappa }=0\). For concreteness when \({\kappa }>0\) we restrict the study to the case of the three bodies at the upper hemisphere, to be denoted as \(\mathbb {S}^2_+\). The main goal is to obtain the totality of relative equilibria as depending on the parameters \({\kappa }\) and the mass ratio \(\mu \). Several general results concerning relative equilibria and its stability properties are proved analytically. The study is completed numerically using continuation from the \({\kappa }=0\) case and from other limit cases. In particular both bifurcations and spectral stability are also studied. The \(\mathbb {H}^2\) case is similar, in some sense, to the planar one, but in the \(\mathbb {S}^2_+\) case many differences have been found. Some surprising phenomena, like the coexistence of many triangular-like solutions for some values \(({\kappa },\mu )\) and many stability changes will be discussed.     

LOFAR Observations of Fine Spectral Structure Dynamics in Type IIIb Radio Bursts

Solar radio emission features a large number of fine structures demonstrating great variability in frequency and time. We present spatially resolved spectral radio observations of type IIIb bursts in the 30?–?80 MHz range made by the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR). The bursts show well-defined fine frequency structuring called “stria” bursts. The spatial characteristics of the stria sources are determined by the propagation effects of radio waves; their movement and expansion speeds are in the range of \((0.1\,\mbox{--}\,0.6)c\). Analysis of the dynamic spectra reveals that both the spectral bandwidth and the frequency drift rate of the striae increase with an increase of their central frequency. The striae bandwidths are in the range of \({\approx}\,(20\,\mbox{--}\,100)\) kHz and the striae drift rates vary from zero to \({\approx}\,0.3~\mbox{MHz}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). The observed spectral characteristics of the stria bursts are consistent with the model involving modulation of the type III burst emission mechanism by small-amplitude fluctuations of the plasma density along the electron beam path. We estimate that the relative amplitude of the density fluctuations is of \(\Delta n/n\sim10^{-3}\), their characteristic length scale is less than 1000 km, and the characteristic propagation speed is in the range of \(400\,\mbox{--}\,800~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). These parameters indicate that the observed fine spectral structures could be produced by propagating magnetohydrodynamic waves.     

Relating Solar Energetic Particle Event Fluences to Peak Intensities

Recently we (Kahler and Ling, Solar Phys.292, 59, 2017: KL) have shown that time–intensity profiles [\(I(t)\)] of 14 large solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be fitted with a simple two-parameter fit, the modified Weibull function, which is characterized by shape and scaling parameters [\(\alpha\) and \(\beta\)]. We now look for a simple correlation between an event peak energy intensity [\(I_{\mathrm{p}}\)] and the time integral of \(I(t)\) over the event duration: the fluence [\(F\)]. We first ask how the ratio of \(F/I_{\mathrm{p}}\) varies for the fits of the 14 KL events and then examine that ratio for three separate published statistical studies of SEP events in which both \(F\) and \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) were measured for comparisons of those parameters with various solar-flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters. The three studies included SEP energies from a 4?–?13 MeV band to \(E > 100~\mbox{MeV}\). Within each group of SEP events, we find a very robust correlation (\(\mathrm{CC} > 0.90\)) in log–log plots of \(F\)versus\(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) over four decades of \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\). The ratio increases from western to eastern longitudes. From the value of \(I_{\mathrm{p}}\) for a given event, \(F\) can be estimated to within a standard deviation of a factor of \({\leq}\,2\). Log–log plots of two studies are consistent with slopes of unity, but the third study shows plot slopes of \({<}\,1\) and decreasing with increasing energy for their four energy ranges from \(E > 10~\mbox{MeV}\) to \({>}\,100~\mbox{MeV}\). This difference is not explained.     

A Test of the Active-Day Fraction Method of Sunspot Group Number Calibration: Dependence on the Level of Solar Activity

The method of active-day fraction (ADF) was proposed recently to calibrate different solar observers to standard observational conditions. The result of the calibration may depend on the overall level of solar activity during the observational period. This dependency is studied quantitatively using data of the Royal Greenwich Observatory by formally calibrating synthetic pseudo-observers to the full reference dataset. It is shown that the sunspot group number is precisely estimated by the ADF method for periods of moderate activity, may be slightly underestimated by 0.5?–?1.5 groups (\({\leq}\,10\%\)) for strong and very strong activity, and is strongly overestimated by up to 2.5 groups (\({\leq}\,30\%\)) for weak-to-moderate activity. The ADF method becomes inapplicable for the periods of grand minima of activity. In general, the ADF method tends to overestimate the overall level of activity and to reduce the long-term trends.     

GONG p-Mode Parameters Through Two Solar Cycles

We investigate the parameters of global solar p-mode oscillations, namely damping width \(\Gamma\), amplitude \(A\), mean squared velocity \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\), energy \(E\), and energy supply rate \(\mathrm{d}E/\mathrm{d}t\), derived from two solar cycles’ worth (1996?–?2018) of Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) time series for harmonic degrees \(l=0\,\mbox{--}\,150\). We correct for the effect of fill factor, apparent solar radius, and spurious jumps in the mode amplitudes. We find that the amplitude of the activity-related changes of \(\Gamma\) and \(A\) depends on both frequency and harmonic degree of the modes, with the largest variations of \(\Gamma\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(31\le l \le60\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(26.6\pm0.3\%\) and of \(A\) for modes with \(2400~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\le\nu\le 3300~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\) and \(61\le l \le100\) with a minimum-to-maximum variation of \(27.4\pm0.4\%\). The level of correlation between the solar radio flux \(F_{10.7}\) and mode parameters also depends on mode frequency and harmonic degree. As a function of mode frequency, the mode amplitudes are found to follow an asymmetric Voigt profile with \(\nu_{\text{max}}=3073.59\pm0.18~\upmu\mbox{Hz}\). From the mode parameters, we calculate physical mode quantities and average them over specific mode frequency ranges. In this way, we find that the mean squared velocities \(\langle v^{2}\rangle\) and energies \(E\) of p modes are anticorrelated with the level of activity, varying by \(14.7\pm0.3\%\) and \(18.4\pm0.3\%\), respectively, and that the mode energy supply rates show no significant correlation with activity. With this study we expand previously published results on the temporal variation of solar p-mode parameters. Our results will be helpful to future studies of the excitation and damping of p modes, i.e., the interplay between convection, magnetic field, and resonant acoustic oscillations.     

Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections Observed During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

In this study, we investigate the interplanetary consequences and travel time details of 58 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the Sun–Earth distance. The CMEs considered are halo and partial halo events of width \({>}\,120\)°. These CMEs occurred during 2009?–?2013, in the ascending phase of the Solar Cycle 24. Moreover, they are Earth-directed events that originated close to the centre of the solar disk (within about \(\pm30\)° from the Sun’s centre) and propagated approximately along the Sun–Earth line. For each CME, the onset time and the initial speed have been estimated from the white-light images observed by the LASCO coronagraphs onboard the SOHO space mission. These CMEs cover an initial speed range of \({\sim}\,260\,\mbox{--}\,2700~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). For these CMEs, the associated interplanetary shocks (IP shocks) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) at the near-Earth environment have been identified from in-situ solar wind measurements available at the OMNI data base. Most of these events have been associated with moderate to intense IP shocks. However, these events have caused only weak to moderate geomagnetic storms in the Earth’s magnetosphere. The relationship of the travel time with the initial speed of the CME has been compared with the observations made in the previous Cycle 23, during 1996?–?2004. In the present study, for a given initial speed of the CME, the travel time and the speed at 1 AU suggest that the CME was most likely not much affected by the drag caused by the slow-speed dominated heliosphere. Additionally, the weak geomagnetic storms and moderate IP shocks associated with the current set of Earth-directed CMEs indicate magnetically weak CME events of Cycle 24. The magnetic energy that is available to propagate CME and cause geomagnetic storm could be significantly low.     

Stellar parameters of the two binary systems: HIP 14075 and HIP 14230

We present the stellar parameters of the individual components of the two old close binary systems HIP 14075 and HIP 14230 using synthetic photometric analysis. These parameters are accurately calculated based on the best match between the synthetic photometric results within three different photometric systems with the observed photometry of the entire system. From the synthetic photometry, we derive the masses and radii of HIP 14075 as \({\mathcal {M}}^A=0.99\pm 0.19 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{A}=0.877\pm 0.08 R_\odot \) for the primary and \({\mathcal {M}}^B=0.96\pm 0.15 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{B}=0.821\pm 0.07 R_\odot \) for the secondary, and of HIP 14230 as \({\mathcal {M}}^A=1.18\pm 0.22 \mathcal {M_\odot }\), \(R_{A}=1.234\pm 0.05 R_\odot \) for the primary and \({\mathcal {M}}^B=0.84\pm 0.12 \mathcal {M_\odot }\) , \(R_{B}=0.820\pm 0.05 R_\odot \) for the secondary. Both systems depend on Gaia parallaxes. Based on the positions of the components of the two systems on a theoretical Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, we find that the age of HIP 14075 is \(11.5\pm 2.0\) Gyr and of HIP 14230 is \(3.5\pm 1.5\) Gyr. Our analysis reveals that both systems are old close binary systems (\(\approx > 4\) Gyr). Finally, the positions of the components of both the systems on the stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones are discussed.     

An Anisotropic Cosmic-Ray Enhancement Event on 07-June-2015: A Possible Origin

A usual event, called anisotropic cosmic-ray enhancement (ACRE), was observed as a small increase (\({\leq}\,5\%\)) in the count rates of polar neutron monitors during 12?–?19 UT on 07 June 2015. The enhancement was highly anisotropic, as detected only by neutron monitors with asymptotic directions in the southwest quadrant in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates. The estimated rigidity of the corresponding particles is \({\leq}\,1\) GV. No associated detectable increase was found in the space-borne data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron (ERNE) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), or the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) instruments, whose sensitivity was not sufficient to detect the event. No solar energetic particles were present during that time interval. The heliospheric conditions were slightly disturbed, so that the interplanetary magnetic field strength gradually increased during the event, followed by an increase of the solar wind speed after the event. It is proposed that the event was related to a crossing of the boundary layer between two regions with different heliospheric parameters, with a strong gradient of low-rigidity (\({<}\,1\) GV) particles. It was apparently similar to another cosmic-ray enhancement (e.g., on 22 June 2015) that is thought to have been caused by the local anisotropy of Forbush decreases, with the difference that in our case, the interplanetary disturbance was not observed at Earth, but passed by southward for this event.     

An Event-Based Verification Scheme for the Real-Time Flare Detection System at Kanzelhöhe Observatory

In the framework of the Space Situational Awareness program of the European Space Agency (ESA/SSA), an automatic flare detection system was developed at Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The system has been in operation since mid-2013. The event detection algorithm was upgraded in September 2017. All data back to 2014 was reprocessed using the new algorithm. In order to evaluate both algorithms, we apply verification measures that are commonly used for forecast validation. In order to overcome the problem of rare events, which biases the verification measures, we introduce a new event-based method. We divide the timeline of the H\(\upalpha\) observations into positive events (flaring period) and negative events (quiet period), independent of the length of each event. In total, 329 positive and negative events were detected between 2014 and 2016. The hit rate for the new algorithm reached 96% (just five events were missed) and a false-alarm ratio of 17%. This is a significant improvement of the algorithm, as the original system had a hit rate of 85% and a false-alarm ratio of 33%. The true skill score and the Heidke skill score both reach values of 0.8 for the new algorithm; originally, they were at 0.5. The mean flare positions are accurate within \({\pm}\,1\) heliographic degree for both algorithms, and the peak times improve from a mean difference of \(1.7\pm 2.9~\mbox{minutes}\) to \(1.3\pm 2.3~\mbox{minutes}\). The flare start times that had been systematically late by about 3 minutes as determined by the original algorithm, now match the visual inspection within \(-0.47\pm 4.10~\mbox{minutes}\).     

Role of primordial black holes in the direct collapse scenario of supermassive black hole formation at high redshifts

In this paper, we explore the possibility of accreting primordial black holes as the source of heating for the collapsing gas in the context of the direct collapse black hole scenario for the formation of super-massive black holes (SMBHs) at high redshifts, \(z\sim \) 6–7. One of the essential requirements for the direct collapse model to work is to maintain the temperature of the in-falling gas at \(\approx \)10\(^4\) K. We show that even under the existing abundance limits, the primordial black holes of masses \(\gtrsim \)10\(^{-2}M_\odot \), can heat the collapsing gas to an extent that the \(\mathrm{H}_2\) formation is inhibited. The collapsing gas can maintain its temperature at \(10^4\) K till the gas reaches a critical density \(n_{{c}} \,{\approx }\, 10^3~\hbox {cm}^{-3}\), at which the roto-vibrational states of \(\mathrm{H}_2\) approaches local thermodynamic equilibrium and \(\mathrm{H}_2\) cooling becomes inefficient. In the absence of \(\mathrm{H}_2\) cooling, the temperature of the collapsing gas stays at \(\approx \)10\(^4\) K even as it collapses further. We discuss scenarios of subsequent angular momentum removal and the route to find collapse through either a supermassive star or a supermassive disk.     

Average Magnetic Field Magnitude Profiles of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wind</Emphasis> Magnetic Clouds as a Function of Closest Approach to the Clouds’ Axes and Comparison to Model

We examine the average magnetic field magnitude (\(| \boldsymbol{B} | \equiv B\)) within magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft from 1995 to July 2015 to understand the difference between this \(B\) and the ideal \(B\)-profiles expected from using the static, constant-\(\alpha\), force-free, cylindrically symmetric model for MCs of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990, denoted here as the LJB model). We classify all MCs according to an assigned quality, \(Q_{0}\) (\(= 1, 2, 3\), for excellent, good, and poor). There are a total of 209 MCs and 124 when only \(Q_{0} = 1\), 2 cases are considered. The average normalized field with respect to the closest approach (\(\mathit{CA}\)) is stressed, where we separate cases into four \(\mathit{CA}\) sets centered at 12.5 %, 37.5 %, 62.5 %, and 87.5 % of the average radius; the averaging is done on a percentage-duration basis to treat all cases the same. Normalized \(B\) means that before averaging, the \(B\) for each MC at each point is divided by the LJB model-estimated \(B\) for the MC axis, \(B_{0}\). The actual averages for the 209 and 124 MC sets are compared to the LJB model, after an adjustment for MC expansion (e.g. Lepping et al. in Ann. Geophys. 26, 1919, 2008). This provides four separate difference-relationships, each fitted with a quadratic (Quad) curve of very small \(\sigma\). Interpreting these Quad formulae should provide a comprehensive view of the variation in normalized \(B\) throughout the average MC, where we expect external front and rear compression to be part of its explanation. These formulae are also being considered for modifying the LJB model. This modification will be used in a scheme for forecasting the timing and magnitude of magnetic storms caused by MCs. Extensive testing of the Quad formulae shows that the formulae are quite useful in correcting individual MC \(B\)-profiles, especially for the first \({\approx\,}1/3\) of these MCs. However, the use of this type of \(B\) correction constitutes a (slight) violation of the force-free assumption used in the original LJB MC model.     

Corotating Shock Waves and the Solar-wind Source of Energetic Ion bundances: Power Laws in $$/Q$Q$

We find that element abundances in energetic ions accelerated by shock waves formed at corotating interaction regions (CIRs) mirror the abundances of the solar wind modified by a decreasing power-law dependence on the mass-to-charge ratio \(A\)/\(Q\) of the ions. This behavior is similar in character to the well-known power-law dependence on \(A\)/\(Q\) of abundances in large gradual solar energetic particles (SEP). The CIR ions reflect the pattern of \(A\)/\(Q\), with \(Q\) values of the source plasma temperature or freezing-in temperature of 1.0?–?1.2 MK typical of the fast solar wind in this case. Thus the relative ion abundances in CIRs are of the form \((A\mbox{/}Q)^{a}\), where \(a\) is nearly always negative and evidently decreases with distance from the shocks, which usually begin beyond 1 AU. For one unusual historic CIR event where \(a \approx 0\), the reverse shock wave of the CIR seems to occur at 1 AU, and these abundances of the energetic ions become a direct proxy for the abundances of the fast solar wind.