Dependence of Geomagnetic Storms on Their Associated Halo CME Parameters

We compare the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We consider 50 front-side full-halo CMEs (FFH CMEs), which are from the list of Michalek, Gopalswamy, and Yashiro (Solar Phys. 246, 399, 2007), whose asymmetric-cone model parameters and earthward-direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity [V _p], radial velocity [V _r], angle between cone axis and sky plane [γ] from the cone model, earthward-direction parameter [D], source longitude [L], and magnetic-field orientation [M] of its CME source region. We make a simple linear-regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. The main results are as follows: i) The combined parameters [(V _r D)^1/2 and V _r γ] have higher correlation coefficients [cc] with the Dst index than the other parameters [V _p and V _r]: cc=0.76 for (V _r D)^1/2, cc=0.70 for V _r γ, cc=0.55 for V _r, and cc=0.17 for V _p. ii) Correlation coefficients between V _r γ and Dst index depend on L and M; cc=0.59 for 21 eastern events [E], cc=0.80 for 29 western events [W], cc=0.49 for 17 northward magnetic-field events [N], and cc=0.69 for 33 southward magnetic-field events [S]. iii) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?200 nT) only appear in the western and southward magnetic-field events. The mean absolute Dst values of geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?50 nT) increase with an order of E+N, E+S, W+N, and W+S events; the mean absolute Dst value (169 nT) of W+S events is significantly larger than that (75 nT) of E+N events. Our results demonstrate that not only do the cone-model parameters together with the earthward-direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index, but also the longitude and the magnetic-field orientation of a FFH CME source region play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update

In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).     

Intense Geomagnetic Storms Associated with Coronal Holes Under the Weak Solar-Wind Conditions of Cycle 24

The activity of Solar Cycle 24 has been extraordinarily low. The yearly averaged solar-wind speed is also lower in Cycle 24 than in Cycles 22 and 23. The yearly averaged speed in the rising phase of Cycle 21 is as low as that of Cycle 24, although the solar activity of Cycle 21 is higher than that of Cycle 24. The relationship between the solar-wind temperature and its speed is preserved under the solar-wind conditions of Cycle 24. Previous studies have shown that only a few percent of intense geomagnetic storms (minimum \(\mathrm{Dst} < -100\) nT) were caused by high-speed solar-wind flows from coronal holes. We identify two geomagnetic storms associated with coronal holes within the 19 intense geomagnetic storms that took place in Cycle 24.     

Validation of CME Detection Software (CACTus) by Means of Simulated Data,and Analysis of Projection Effects on CME Velocity Measurements

In the context of space weather forecasting, an automated detection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) becomes more and more important for efficiently handling a large data flow which is expected from recently-launched and future solar missions. In this paper we validate the detection software package “CACTus” by applying the program to synthetic data from our 3D time-dependent CME simulations instead of observational data. The main strength of this study is that we know in advance what should be detected. We describe the sensitivities and strengths of automated detection, more specific for the CACTus program, resulting in a better understanding of CME detection on one hand and the calibration of the CACTus software on the other hand, suggesting possible improvements of the package. In addition, the simulation is an ideal tool to investigate projection effects on CME velocity measurements.     

Evolution of CME Mass in the Corona

The idea that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) pile up mass in their transport through the corona and heliosphere is widely accepted. However, it has not been shown that this is the case. We perform an initial study of the volume electron density of the fronts of 13 three-part CMEs with well-defined frontal boundaries observed with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph (SOHO/LASCO) white-light coronagraphs. We find that, in all cases, the volume electron density decreases as the CMEs travel through the LASCO-C2 and -C3 fields of view, from \(2.6\,\mbox{--}\,30~\mbox{R}_{\odot}\). The density decrease follows closely a power law with an exponent of ?3, which is consistent with a simple radial expansion. This indicates that in this height regime there is no observed pile-up.     

Geomagnetic variations with the period of a sidereal day

Recent determinations of sidereal-day variations in the geomagnetic field have been attributed to galactic sources of ionisation. Alternative mechanisms that could equally well account for the observed variations are presented, based on solar and lunar tides.     

Quantitative Analysis of CME Deflections in the Corona

In this paper, ten CME events viewed by the STEREO twin spacecraft are analyzed to study the deflections of CMEs during their propagation in the corona. Based on the three-dimensional information of the CMEs derived by the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model (Thernisien, Howard, and Vourlidas in Astrophys. J. 652, 1305, 2006), it is found that the propagation directions of eight CMEs had changed. By applying the theoretical method proposed by Shen et?al. (Solar Phys. 269, 389, 2011) to all the CMEs, we found that the deflections are consistent, in strength and direction, with the gradient of the magnetic energy density. There is a positive correlation between the deflection rate and the strength of the magnetic energy density gradient and a weak anti-correlation between the deflection rate and the CME speed. Our results suggest that the deflections of CMEs are mainly controlled by the background magnetic field and can be quantitatively described by the magnetic energy density gradient (MEDG) model.     

Multi-Scale Analysis of the Geomagnetic Symmetric Index (sym)

In this work we present a methodology to estimate the geomagnetic symmetric index (Sym) based on the wavelet analysis of the time series of the H component of the geomagnetic field measured at mid-latitude stations localized at Kakioka (KAK), Honolulu (HON), Hermanus (HER) and San Juan (SJG). A case study of the intense geomagnetic storm of 17–22 February 1999, caused by intense southward magnetic fields just behind an interplanetary shock driven by a magnetic cloud, is shown as an example of the procedure of derivation of the symmetric index and the capabilities of this analysis to improve the study of the coupling of the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere. Other examples are shown in order to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to different magnetospheric conditions. It is shown that the long period variations of the symmetric index are linearly correlated to variations at the same periods of the H component of the geomagnetic field and that the contribution of short period variations to the symmetric index are biased by localized current systems such as the partial ring current and the field aligned currents.     

A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. III. Catastrophe of the Eruptive Filament at a Magnetic Null Point and Formation of an Opposite-Handedness CME

Our analysis in Papers I and II (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. 289, 289, 2014b and Solar Phys. 289, 1279, 2014c) of the 18 November 2003 solar event responsible for the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm has revealed a complex chain of eruptions. In particular, the eruptive filament encountered a topological discontinuity located near the solar disk center at a height of about 100 Mm, bifurcated, and transformed into a large cloud, which did not leave the Sun. Concurrently, an additional CME presumably erupted close to the bifurcation region. The conjectures about the responsibility of this compact CME for the superstorm and its disconnection from the Sun are confirmed in Paper IV (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. submitted, 2014a), which concludes about its probable spheromak-like structure. The present article confirms the presence of a magnetic null point near the bifurcation region and addresses the origin of the magnetic helicity of the interplanetary magnetic clouds and their connection to the Sun. We find that the orientation of a magnetic dipole constituted by dimmed regions with the opposite magnetic polarities away from the parent active region corresponded to the direction of the axial field in the magnetic cloud, while the pre-eruptive filament mismatched it. To combine all of the listed findings, we propose an intrinsically three-dimensional scheme, in which a spheromak-like eruption originates via the interaction of the initially unconnected magnetic fluxes of the eruptive filament and pre-existing ones in the corona. Through a chain of magnetic reconnections their positive mutual helicity was transformed into the self-helicity of the spheromak-like magnetic cloud.     

Reconstructing the 3D Morphology of the 17 May 2008 CME

We model the kinematics and three-dimensional distribution of mass in a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 17 May 2008, using a comprehensive analysis of STEREO images of the CME. The CME is a surprisingly fast one for solar minimum, reaching velocities of up to 1120 km?s^?1. It can be followed continuously from inception all the way out to 1 AU. We find that the appearance of the CME can be modeled reasonably well as a combination of two distinct fronts that expand outward in a self-similar fashion. The model implies that STEREO-B is struck by the weaker of these two fronts on 19 May, and the in situ instruments on STEREO-B do see a weak density and magnetic field enhancement at the expected time.     

Relation of CME Speed and Magnetic Helicity in CME Source Regions on the Sun during the Early Phase of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

To investigate the relations between coronal mass ejection (CME) speed and magnetic field properties measured in the photospheric surface of CME source regions, we selected 22 disk CMEs in the rising and early maximum phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. For the CME speed, we used two-dimensional (2D) projected speed observed by the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/LASCO), as well as a 3D speed calculated from the triangulation method using multi-point observations. Two magnetic parameters of CME source regions were considered: the average of magnetic helicity injection rate and the total unsigned magnetic flux. We then classified the selected CMEs into two groups, showing: i) a monotonically increasing pattern with one sign of helicity (group A: 16 CMEs) and ii) a pattern of significant helicity injection followed by its sign reversal (group B: 6 CMEs). We found that: 1) 3D speed generally shows better correlations with the magnetic parameters than the 2D speed for 22 CME events in Solar Cycle 24; 2) 2D speed and the magnetic parameters of 22 CME events in this solar cycle have lower values than those of 47 CME events in Solar Cycle 23; 3) all events of group B in Solar Cycle 24 occur only after the beginning of the maximum phase, a trend well consistent with that shown in Solar Cycle 23; 4) the 2D speed and the helicity parameter of group B events continue to increase in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23, while those of group A events abruptly decrease in the same period. Our results indicate that the two CME groups have a different tendency in the solar cycle variations of CME speed and the helicity parameters. Active regions that show a complex helicity evolution pattern tend to appear in the maximum and declining phases, while active regions with a relatively simple helicity evolution pattern appear throughout the whole solar cycle.     

CME速度的投影效应改正方法

目前观测得到的日冕物质抛射(coronal mass ejection,CME)只是其在天空平面的投影,其观测参量与真实参量之间存在一定的差异.而CME的速度是对其地磁效应有决定性影响的参量,因此对CME测量速度作投影效应改正是一个重要的研究课题.综述了近年来对CME测量速度进行投影效应改正的方法,并指出了这些投影效应改正方法中存在的一些问题和进一步的研究方向.     

太阳耀斑引起的磁扰的多因子回归分析

利用多元逐步回归方法分析了太阳耀斑的日面经纬度、面积,持续时间、地球的日面纬度、地磁轴与日地连线的夹角和地磁扰动的关系。结果表明这6个因子对磁扰均有不同程度的影响,由太阳耀斑引起的地磁扰动除与耀斑的特征有关外,还受地球空间位置的影响。     

On the Prediction of Maximum Amplitude for Solar Cycles Using Geomagnetic Precursors

Precursor methods for the prediction of maximum amplitude of the solar cycle have previously been found to provide the most reliable indication for the size of the following cycle, years in advance. In this paper, we evaluate several of the previously used geomagnetic precursor methods and some new ones, both as single-variate and multivariate regressions. The newer precursor methods are based on the size of the geomagnetic index maximum, which, since cycle 12, has always occurred during the declining portion of the solar cycle, usually several years before subsequent cycle minimum. These various precursor techniques are then applied to cycle 23, yielding the prediction that its maximum amplitude should be about 168 ± 15 (r.m.s.), peaking sometime in 1999–2000.     

Propagation of the Bastille Day 2000 CME Shock in the Outer Heliosphere

The Bastille Day (14 July) 2000 CME is a fast, halo coronal mass ejection event headed earthward. The ejection reached Earth on 15 July 2000 and produced a very significant magnetic storm and widespread aurora. At 1 AU the Wind spacecraft recorded a strong forward shock with a speed jump from ∼ 600 to over 1000 km s⁻¹. About 6 months later, this CME-driven shock arrived at Voyager 2 (∼ 63 AU) on 12 January 2001 with a speed jump of ∼ 60 km s⁻¹. This provides a good opportunity to study the shock propagation in the outer heliosphere. In this study, we employ a 2.5-D MHD numerical model, which takes the interaction of solar wind protons and interstellar neutrals into account, to investigate the shock propagation in detail and compare the model predictions with the Voyager 2 observations. The Bastille Day CME shock undergoes a dramatic change in character from the inner to outer heliosphere. Its strength and propagation speed decay significantly with distance. The model results at the location of Voyager 2 are in good agreement with in-situ observations. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014293527951     

A Parametric Survey of the CME Triggering Process by Numerical Simulations

Observations indicate that solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely associated with reconnection-favored flux emergence, which was explained in the emerging flux trigger mechanism for CMEs by Chen & Shibata based on numerical simulations. We present a parametric survey of the triggering agent: its polarity orientation, position, and the amount of the unsigned flux. The results suggest that whether a CME can be triggered depends on both the amount and location of the emerging flux, in addition to its polarity orientation. A diagram is presented to show the eruption and non-eruption regimes in the parameter space. The work is aimed at providing useful information for the space weather forecast.     

低频天波信号的变化与地磁活动关系的分析

基于临潼（34°22＇N，109°13＇E）对来自冲绳（26°36＇N，128°09＇E）的100kHz低频一跳天波的时延及场强的实测，并利用相应的地磁扰动等资料、进行了有关低频天波信号变化与地磁活动的关系的分析研究。结果表明：（1）当地磁扰动的日平均指数较高时，低频天波信号的时延、场强的变化也较为明显;（2）磁暴达主相的当日，低频天波信号的时延、场强大多有明显变化，并且对延、场强的变化还与低频天线反射点处于白天还是夜晚有关，若处于夜晚，天演变化较大。若处于白天，变化较小；（3）在磁暴初相时，低频天波信号的时延、场强无明显的变化；（4）低频一跳天渡时延变化值与磁暴主相最大变幅H值有较好的正相关。     

Formation of the CME Leading Edge Observed in the 2003 February 18 Event

This work investigates a typical coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 2003 February 18, by various space and ground instruments, in white light, Ha, EUV and X-ray. The Ha and EUV images indicate that the CME started with the eruption of a long filament located near the solar northwest limb. The white light coronal images show that the CME initiated with the rarefaction of a region above the solar limb and followed by the formation of a bright arcade at the boundary of the rarefying region at height 0.46 R(?) above the solar surface. The rarefying process synchronized with the slow rising phase of the eruptive filament, and the CME leading edge was observed to form as the latter started to accelerate. The lower part of the filament brightened in Ha as the filament rose to a certain height and parts of the filament was visible in the GOES X-ray images during the rise. These brightenings imply that the filament may be heated by the magnetic reconnection below the filament in the early stage of the eruption. We suggest that a possible mechanism which leads to the formation of the CME leading edge and cavity is the magnetic reconnection which takes place below the filament after the filament has reached a certain height.     

Forecast of the Decadal Average Sunspot Number

The forecast of the decadal average sunspot number (SN) becomes possible with an extension of telescopic observations based on proxy reconstructions using the tree ring radiocarbon data during the Holocene. These decadal numbers (SN_RC) provide a powerful statistic to verify the forecasting methods. Complicated dynamics of long-term solar activity and noise of proxy-based reconstruction make the one-step-ahead forecast challenging for any forecasting method. Here we construct a continuous data set of SN_RC which extends the group sunspot number and the international sunspot number. The known technique of nonlinear forecast, the local linear approximation, is adapted to estimate the coming SN. Both the method and the continuous data set were tested and tuned to obtain the minimum of a normalized average prediction error (E) during the last millennium using several past millennia as a training data set. E=0.58σ _D is achieved to forecast the SN successive differences whose standard deviation is σ _D=7.39 for the period of training. This corresponds to the correlation (r=0.97) between true and forecasted SN. This error is significantly smaller than the prediction error when the surrogate data were used for the training data set, and proves the nonlinearity in the decadal SN. The estimated coming SN is smaller than the previous one.