Three-Dimensional Reconstruction of Two Solar Coronal Mass Ejections Using the STEREO Spacecraft

Previous attempts to produce three-dimensional (3-D) reconstructions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have required either modeling efforts or comparisons with secondary associated eruptions near the solar surface. This is because coronagraphs are only able to produce sky-plane-projected images of CMEs and it has hence been impossible to overcome projection effects by using coronagraphs alone. The SECCHI suite aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft allows us to provide the means for 3-D reconstruction of CMEs directly from coronagraph measurements alone for the first time. We present these measurements from two CMEs observed in November 2007. By identifying common features observed simultaneously with the LASCO coronagraphs aboard SOHO and the COR coronagraphs aboard STEREO we have triangulated the source region of both CMEs. We present the geometrical analysis required for this triangulation and identify the location of the CME in solar-meridional, ecliptic, and Carrington coordinates. None of the two events were associated with an easily detectable solar surface eruption, so this triangulation technique is the only means by which the source location of these CMEs could be identified. We present evidence that both CMEs originated from the same magnetic structure on the Sun, but from a different magnetic field configuration. Our results reveal some insight into the evolution of the high corona magnetic field, including its behavior over time scales of a few days and its reconfiguration after a major eruption.     

On the Tomographic Reconstruction of the 3D Electron Density for the Solar Corona from STEREO COR1 Data

We present for the first time a three-dimensional reconstruction of the electron density in the corona at distances from 1.5R _⊙ to 4R _⊙ using COR1 STEREO observations. The reconstruction is performed using a regularized tomography inversion method for two biweekly periods corresponding to Carrington Rotations 2058 and 2066. Images from the two STEREO spacecraft are used to compare the reconstructed density structures with coronal features located by triangulation. We find that the location of a bright tip of a helmet streamer obtained from the tomographic reconstruction is in good agreement with the location obtained by triangulation. The reconstructed density structure of the equatorial streamer belt is largely consistent with the variation of the current sheet derived from a potential magnetic field extrapolation for most of the equatorial region and for an MHD model of the corona. A zero-value density region in the reconstruction is identified with a low-density region seen in an EUVI image below the reconstruction domain.     

Solar Sources of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During the Solar Cycle 23/24 Minimum

We examine solar sources for 20 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed in 2009 in the near-Earth solar wind. We performed a detailed analysis of coronagraph and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Our study shows that the coronagraph observations from viewpoints away from the Sun–Earth line are paramount to locate the solar sources of Earth-bound ICMEs during solar minimum. SOHO/LASCO detected only six CMEs in our sample, and only one of these CMEs was wider than 120^°. This demonstrates that observing a full or partial halo CME is not necessary to observe the ICME arrival. Although the two STEREO spacecraft had the best possible configuration for observing Earth-bound CMEs in 2009, we failed to find the associated CME for four ICMEs, and identifying the correct CME was not straightforward even for some clear ICMEs. Ten out of 16 (63 %) of the associated CMEs in our study were “stealth” CMEs, i.e. no obvious EUV on-disk activity was associated with them. Most of our stealth CMEs also lacked on-limb EUV signatures. We found that stealth CMEs generally lack the leading bright front in coronagraph images. This is in accordance with previous studies that argued that stealth CMEs form more slowly and at higher coronal altitudes than non-stealth CMEs. We suggest that at solar minimum the slow-rising CMEs do not draw enough coronal plasma around them. These CMEs are hence difficult to discern in the coronagraphic data, even when viewed close to the plane of the sky. The weak ICMEs in our study were related to both intrinsically narrow CMEs and the non-central encounters of larger CMEs. We also demonstrate that narrow CMEs (angular widths ≤?20^°) can arrive at Earth and that an unstructured CME may result in a flux rope-type ICME.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Sunspot Number near the Cycle Minimum

Correlations between monthly smoothed sunspot numbers at the solar-cycle maximum [R _max] and duration of the ascending phase of the cycle [T _rise], on the one hand, and sunspot-number parameters (values, differences and sums) near the cycle minimum, on the other hand, are studied. It is found that sunspot numbers two?–?three years around minimum correlate with R _max or T _rise better than those exactly at the minimum. The strongest correlation (Pearson’s r=0.93 with P<0.001 and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient r _S=0.95 with P=9×10^?12) proved to be between R _max and the sum of the increase of activity over 30 months after the cycle minimum and the drop of activity over 30 or 36 months before the minimum. Several predictions of maximal amplitude and duration of the ascending phase for Solar Cycle 24 are given using sunspot-number parameters as precursors. All of the predictions indicate that Solar Cycle 24 is expected to reach a maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number (SSN) of 70?–?100. The prediction based on the best correlation yields the maximal amplitude of 90±12. The maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be in December 2013?–?January 2014. The rising and declining phases of Solar Cycle 24 are estimated to be about 5.0 and 6.3 years, respectively. The minimum epoch between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 is predicted to be at 2020.3 with minimal SSN of 5.1?–?5.4. We predict also that Solar Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Solar Cycle 24; its maximal SSN will be of 105?–?110.     

Three-Dimensional Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from STEREO/SECCHI Observations

We identify 565 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) between January 2007 and December 2010 in observations from the twin STEREO/SECCHI/COR2 coronagraphs aboard the STEREO mission. Our list is in full agreement with the corresponding SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog ( http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/ ) for events with angular widths of 45^° and up. The monthly event rates behave similarly to sunspot rates showing a three- to fourfold rise between September 2009 and March 2010. We select 51 events with well-defined white-light structure and model them as three-dimensional (3D) flux ropes using a forward-modeling technique developed by Thernisien, Howard and Vourlidas (Astrophys. J. 652, 763??C?773, 2006). We derive their 3D properties and identify their source regions. We find that the majority of the CME flux ropes (82?%) lie within 30^° of the solar equator. Also, 82?% of the events are displaced from their source region, to a lower latitude, by 25^° or less. These findings provide strong support for the deflection of CMEs towards the solar equator reported in earlier observations, e.g. by Cremades and Bothmer (Astron. Astrophys. 422, 307??C?322, 2004).     

Using Polar Coronal Hole Area Measurements to Determine the Solar Polar Magnetic Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 24

An analysis of solar polar coronal hole (PCH) areas since the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows how the polar regions have evolved during Solar Cycle 24. We present PCH areas from mid-2010 through 2013 using data from the Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard SDO. Our analysis shows that both the northern and southern PCH areas have decreased significantly in size since 2010. Linear fits to the areas derived from the magnetic-field properties indicate that, although the northern hemisphere went through polar-field reversal and reached solar-maximum conditions in mid-2012, the southern hemisphere had not reached solar-maximum conditions in the polar regions by the end of 2013. Our results show that solar-maximum conditions in each hemisphere, as measured by the area of the polar coronal holes and polar magnetic field, will be offset in time.     

Temporal Evolution of the Solar-Wind Electron Core Density at Solar Minimum by Correlating SWEA Measurements from STEREO A and B

The twin STEREO spacecraft provide a unique tool to study the temporal evolution of the solar-wind properties in the ecliptic since their longitudinal separation increases with time. We derive the characteristic temporal variations at ～?1 AU between two different plasma parcels ejected from the same solar source by excluding the spatial variations from our datasets. As part of the onboard IMPACT instrument suite, the SWEA electron experiment provides the solar-wind electron core density at two different heliospheric vantage points. We analyze these density datasets between March and August 2007 and find typical solar minimum conditions. After adjusting for the theoretical time lag between the two spacecraft, we compare the two density datasets. We find that their correlation decreases as the time difference increases between two ejections. The correlation coefficient is about 0.80 for a time lag of a half day and 0.65 for two days. These correlation coefficients from the electron core density are somewhat lower than the ones from the proton bulk velocity obtained in an earlier study, though they are still high enough to consider the solar wind as persistent after two days. These quantitative results reflect the variability of the solar-wind properties in space and time, and they might serve as input for solar-wind models.     

Variations in Oscillation Frequencies From Minimum to Maximum of Solar Activity

The temporal variation in intermediate-degree-mode frequencies is analysed using helioseismic data which cover the minimum to the maximum phase of the current solar cycle. To study the variation in detail, the measured frequency shifts of f and p modes are decomposed into two components, viz., oscillatory and non-oscillatory. The f-mode frequencies exhibit prominent oscillatory behavior in contrast to p modes where the oscillatory nature of the frequencies is not clearly seen. Also, the oscillatory part contributes significantly to the f-mode frequencies while p-mode frequencies have maximum contribution from the non-oscillatory part. The amplitude of both oscillatory and non-oscillatory parts is found to be a function of frequency. The non-oscillatory part is observed to have a strong correlation with solar activity.     

Minimum Variance Analysis of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Around Solar Cycle 23 Maximum (1998–2002)

The minimum variance analysis of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed close to the Earth's orbit around solar cycle 23 maximum (1998–2002) was performed. The ICMEs were classified in three categories: magnetic clouds (MC), undefined ejecta (UE), and complex ejecta (CE). An analysis of the full ICMEs set shows that the average of minimum variance direction inclination angle is 1.6°± 24.8° in relation to the ecliptic plane, with more than 33% of the events presenting inclination angles lower than 10°. The average of minimum variance direction azimuthal angle (in relation to the Sun–Earth line) was 56°. However, around 60% of the ICMEs presented an azimuthal angle lower than 30°, close to the radial direction. It was also observed that the MC set had lower axial (intermediate variance) inclinations relative to the ecliptic plane than the UE and CE events. The intermediate variance axis is close to 90° to the Sun–Earth line. The results obtained in the present analysis were also compared with previous works, permitting a comparison of the ICMEs orientations in solar cycle 23 with previous sor cycles.     

Solar Wind Speed and Expansion Rate of the Coronal Magnetic Field in Solar Maximum and Minimum Phases

Relationships between solar wind speed and expansion rate of the coronal magnetic field have been studied mainly by in-ecliptic observations of artificial satellites and some off-ecliptic data by Ulysses. In this paper, we use the solar wind speed estimated by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations in the whole heliosphere. Two synoptic maps of SWS estimated by IPS observations are constructed for two Carrington rotations CR 1830 and 1901; CR 1830 starting on the 11th of June, 1990 is in the maximum phase of solar activity cycle and CR 1901 starting on the 29th of September, 1995 is in the minimum phase. Each of the maps consist of 64800 (360×180) data points. Similar synoptic maps of expansion rate of the coronal magnetic field (RBR) calculated by the so-called potential model are also constructed under a radial field assumption for CR 1830 and CR1901. Highly significant correlation (r=–0.66) is found between the SWS and the RBR during CR1901 in the solar minimum phase; that is, high-speed winds emanate from photospheric areas corresponding to low expansion rate of the coronal magnetic field and low speed winds emanate from photospheric areas of high expansion rate. A similar result is found during CR 1830 in solar maximum phase, though the correlation is relatively low (r=–0.29). The correlation is improved when both the data during CR 1830 and CR 1901 are used together; the correlation coefficient becomes –0.67 in this case. These results suggest that the correlation analysis between the SWS and the RBR can be applied to estimate the solar wind speed from the expansion rate of the coronal magnetic field, though the correlation between them may depend on the solar activity cycle. We need further study of correlation analysis for the entire solar cycle to get an accurate empirical equation for the estimation of solar wind speed. If the solar wind speed is estimated successfully by an empirical equation, it can be used as an initial condition of a solar wind model for space weather forecasts.     

Different Types of Coronal Mass Ejections At Minimum and Maximum of Solar Activity and Their Relation to Magnetic Field Evolution

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are considered to be associated with large-scale, closed magnetic field structures in the corona. These structures change throughout the solar activity cycle following the evolution of the general solar magnetic field. To study the variation of CME characteristics with the evolution of coronal magnetic structures, we compute the 3-D coronal magnetic field at minimum and maximum of activity with a source-surface potential field model. In particular, we study the central latitude distribution of CMEs and the frequency of occurrence of the different CME types in these two periods. We find that most CMEs are indeed associated with large-scale, magnetically closed structures, and their latitudinal distribution follows the solar cycle latitudinal changes of the location of these structures. We also find that different CME types, which constitute different fractions of the total during the maximum and the minimum, are associated with different shapes and orientations of the closed structures at different times of the solar cycle.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Forecasting the Maxima of Solar Cycle 24 with Coronal Fe xiv Emission

The onset of the “Rush to the Poles” of polar-crown prominences and their associated coronal emission is a harbinger of solar maximum. Altrock (Solar Phys. 216, 343, 2003) showed that the “Rush” was well observed at 1.15 R _o in the Fe xiv corona at the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory prior to the maxima of Cycles 21 to 23. The data show that solar maximum in those cycles occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude of 76^°±2^°. Furthermore, in the previous three cycles solar maximum occurred when the highest number of Fe xiv emission features per day (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 20^°±1.7^°. Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent Rush that is only well-defined in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6^°?year^?1 was found in the north, compared to an average of 9.4±1.7^°?year^?1 in the previous cycles. An early fit to the Rush would have reached 76^° at 2014.6. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5^°?year^?1 (an increase did not occur in the previous three cycles). Extending that rate to 76^°±2^° indicates that the solar maximum in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6±0.3. In the southern hemisphere the Rush to the Poles, if it exists, is very poorly defined. A linear fit to several maxima would reach 76^° in the south at 2014.2. In 1999, persistent Fe xiv coronal emission known as the “extended solar cycle” appeared near 70^° in the North and began migrating towards the equator at a rate 40 % slower than the previous two solar cycles. However, in 2009 and 2010 an acceleration occurred. Currently the greatest number of emission features is at 21^° in the North and 24^° in the South. This indicates that solar maximum is occurring now in the North but not yet in the South.     

Solar UV Activity at Solar Cycle 21 and 22 Minimum from NOAA-9 SBUV/2 Data

Although solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance measurements have been made regularly from satellite instruments for almost 20 years, only one complete solar cycle minimum has been observed during this period. Solar activity is currently moving through the minimum phase between cycles 22 and 23, so it is of interest to compare recent data taken from the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument with data taken by the same instrument during the previous solar minimum in 1985–1986. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 is the first instrument to make continuous solar UV measurements for a complete solar cycle. Direct irradiance measurements (e.g., 205 nm) from NOAA-9 are currently useful for examining short-term variations, but have not been corrected for long-term instrument sensitivity changes. We use the Mgii proxy index to illustrate variability on solar cycle time scales, and to provide complementary information on short-term variability. Comparisons with contemporaneous data from Nimbus-7 SBUV (1985–1986) and UARS SUSIM (1994–1995) are used to validate the results obtained from the NOAA-9 data. Current short-term UV activity differs from the cycle 21–22 minimum. Continuous 13-day periodicity was observed from September 1994 to March 1995, a condition which has only been seen previously for shorter intervals during rising or maximum activity levels. The 205 nm irradiance and Mgii index are expected to track very closely on short time scales, but show differences in behavior during the minimum between cycles 22 and 23.     

An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24

A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even–odd sunspot pairs (22–23 and 24–25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5±23.5) is estimated from our results.     

Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections Observed During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

In this study, we investigate the interplanetary consequences and travel time details of 58 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the Sun–Earth distance. The CMEs considered are halo and partial halo events of width \({>}\,120\)°. These CMEs occurred during 2009?–?2013, in the ascending phase of the Solar Cycle 24. Moreover, they are Earth-directed events that originated close to the centre of the solar disk (within about \(\pm30\)° from the Sun’s centre) and propagated approximately along the Sun–Earth line. For each CME, the onset time and the initial speed have been estimated from the white-light images observed by the LASCO coronagraphs onboard the SOHO space mission. These CMEs cover an initial speed range of \({\sim}\,260\,\mbox{--}\,2700~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\). For these CMEs, the associated interplanetary shocks (IP shocks) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) at the near-Earth environment have been identified from in-situ solar wind measurements available at the OMNI data base. Most of these events have been associated with moderate to intense IP shocks. However, these events have caused only weak to moderate geomagnetic storms in the Earth’s magnetosphere. The relationship of the travel time with the initial speed of the CME has been compared with the observations made in the previous Cycle 23, during 1996?–?2004. In the present study, for a given initial speed of the CME, the travel time and the speed at 1 AU suggest that the CME was most likely not much affected by the drag caused by the slow-speed dominated heliosphere. Additionally, the weak geomagnetic storms and moderate IP shocks associated with the current set of Earth-directed CMEs indicate magnetically weak CME events of Cycle 24. The magnetic energy that is available to propagate CME and cause geomagnetic storm could be significantly low.