黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析

采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Ya-mamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。     

宁夏近百年来的气候变化及突变分析

以宁夏北部地区近百年来的降水量、气温距平资料以及全区各季有仪器观测以来的温度降水资料为基础，利用Mann-Kendall突变检验法和滑动t检验法，分析了宁夏近百年来气候变化的阶段性和突变特点。结果表明：近百年来宁夏气候大概经历了五个主要阶段；80年代中期年平均气温及秋冬季平均气温发生改变；60年代左右年降水量发生突变；70年代中后期全区秋季降水量出现突变。     

近50a文山州气候变化特征分析

根据文山州1961—2010年逐年气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,运用线性倾向估计、5 a滑动平均、M-K突变检验等方法计算分析了文山州近50 a各气象要素变化特征。结果表明:①年平均气温前20 a没有规律,后30 a全州均呈现出升温趋势。大部分站点在20世纪90年代初期发生突变,而在90年代末出现明显的升温趋势。②年平均最高气温从60—80年代大部分站点呈现升温的趋势,90年代后全州都呈现下降的趋势,21世纪初期全州又都呈上升趋势;各站点年平均气温发生突变时间不一致。③各个站点极端最高气温均出现多个突变点,年极端最高气温升温趋势没有年平均最高气温升温趋势明显。④近50 a来,各县年总降水量都有一个共性,即全都呈现出线性递减的变化,各县线性倾向率均为负值;年总降水量全州均在2000年后发生突变,但均未出现明显增加或减少的趋势;⑤近50 a来,文山州日照时数仅西畴和麻栗坡表现为增加的趋势,其余测站年总日照时数都在减少。     

海阳50a气候特征分析

根据海阳1961—2010年气温、降水量、日照、相对湿度等气象资料,应用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 突变检测法、滑动t检验法,对海阳市气候变化及规律进行了分析。结果表明：历年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最低气温在过去的50a间呈显著的上升趋势,历年极端最高气温的上升趋势不显著,年代际变化特征突出;年降水量呈缓慢的减少趋势,变化趋势不显著,年代际间分布不均,变化较大,年降水量减少的原因是夏季和秋季降水减少;日照时数呈显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是2004年;年平均相对湿度呈现显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是1977年,秋季湿度减少最为明显。     

重庆市涪陵区近56年气候变化特征研究

利用重庆市涪陵区1953～2008年来的气温、降水、日照等资料,通过气候统计诊断分析方法,从气候基本特征、要素变化趋势、气候突变等进行分析.结果表明,近56年来,重庆市涪陵区除夏季外,年和各季节气温呈上升趋势,冬季升温显著.年降水量和春、夏、冬季降水量均为上升趋势,秋季降水量为下降趋势.日照时数经历了一次显著波动,由多到少的突变发生在1973年前后.气温、降水量和日照时数都存在突变现象.气温和降水的异常年份多发生在90年代以后.     

日喀则近53年气候变化特征分析

利用线性趋势函数及Mann-Kendall突变检测分析法,分析了西藏藏南河谷日喀则气象站气温及降水近53年的气候变化特征。结果表明,年平均气温与极端气温均呈上升趋势,而最高气温的上升趋势尤为明显,年降水量波动上升。冬春季增温趋势较秋、夏季更为明显,春夏季降水呈增加趋势,而秋季降水略有减少。Mann-Kendall突变检测表明,近53年日喀则地区气温有明显的增暖趋势,但20世纪60—70年代变冷趋势亦十分显著,在2001年温度发生一次突变。年降水量在1958年发生了由少向多的突变,但这一突变仅维持到20世纪60年代中期。     

石家庄市气候变化特征分析

利用石家庄市1951～2005年气温、降水资料,采用变率分析、趋势分析、小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等方法对石家庄近55年的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:①夏季、秋季气温变率小,冬季气温变化幅度最大;②年气温和四季气温线性上升趋势显著,春季、冬季升温最明显,近55年气候变暖主要是春季和冬季气温升高造成的。年降水量和四季降水量不存在线性变化趋势;③四季气温和年气温变化的周期性不明显,而降水量变化存在周期性;④石家庄四季气温和年气温在20世纪80年代末和90年初发生了明显的气候突变,而四季降水量和年降水量变化没有发生明显的气候突变。     

青藏高原气候由暖干到暖湿时期的年代际变化特征研究

利用1961~1998年青藏高原123个气象台站常规地面观测资料,对近40年青藏高原地区的气候年代际变化特征进行分析。分析结果表明：20世纪80年代中后期青藏高原经历了一次气温、降水量、相对湿度显著增加的气候突变。以突变点为界,可以划分为两个时期,即从20世纪60年代初到80年代中后期,青藏高原为相对暖干时期,从20世纪80年代后期开始,青藏高原进入相对暖湿时期。由此,从气温、降水量、相对湿度的变化特征和突变理论上可以初步判断,20世纪80年代中后期青藏高原气候年代际变化实现了由暖干型向暖湿型的突变。青藏高原气温和降水突变早于相对湿度突变;青藏高原的增温、增湿现象主要发生在冬季;春季亦增温、增湿,但增幅小于冬季;夏季出现增温和略减湿现象;秋季为明显增温,但湿度无明显变化。     

青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较

基于1961～2006年中国地面观测气温和降水资料,对青藏高原地区以及中国其他6个地区地表气温、降水的变化趋势和突变时间进行了检测和比较。结果发现,(1)地表气温:1961～2006年青藏高原地区年和四季的地表气温都呈增加趋势。年平均地表气温在20世纪80年代中期开始变暖,但显著快速增暖的突变发生在90年代中期,该时间比东北、华北、西北和淮河地区晚,与长江中下游和华南地区接近,不同季节青藏高原地区与其他地区变暖突变时间的差别也各有不同,但所有季节快速变暖突变的时间都比东北地区晚,中国东部陆地地区年和冬季平均地表气温表现出北早南晚的经向差异;(2)降水:1961～2006年青藏高原地区年降水量没有检测到显著的变化趋势,冬春降水量显著增加,而夏季降水有微弱的减少,秋季降水显著减少。降水突变的信号明显比温度突变的信号弱,年降水量和春季降水都没有检测到突变的发生,降水突变方向(增或减)和突变时间在区域与区域之间以及不同季节之间都存在较大差异。由上可见,青藏高原气候的显著快速变化比中国东部长江以北地区有明显的滞后现象,尤其是冬春温度变化,这可能是由于青藏高原地区积雪增加导致的反照率增加和冰川融化吸热对青藏高原变暖的减弱作用所致。     

淄博60a气温和降水量变化趋势分析

利用1954—2013年淄博观测站平均气温和降水量资料,运用线性拟合、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,对气温和降水量的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：年季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中冬季增暖最明显,年平均气温在1987年发生增温突变。降水量较气温变化复杂,没有明显突变点,总体呈减少趋势,季节变化差异大,表现为春季降水量明显增加,秋季减少。年平均气温主要存在30a 和8a 左右周期性变化,年降水量主要存在11a和3a左右周期性变化。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.