Ineffectiveness of Narrow CMEs for Cosmic Ray Modulation

Monthly coronal mass ejection (CME) counts, – for all CMEs and CMEs with widths >?30^°, – and monthly averaged speeds for the events in these two groups were compared with both the monthly averaged cosmic ray intensity and the monthly sunspot number. The monthly P _i-index, which is a linear combination of monthly CME count rate and average speed, was also compared with the cosmic ray intensity and sunspot number. The main finding is that narrow CMEs, which were numerous during 2007?–?2009, are ineffective for modulation. A cross-correlation analysis, calculating both the Pearson (r) product–moment correlation coefficient and the Spearman (ρ) rank correlation coefficient, has been used. Between all CMEs and cosmic ray intensity we found correlation coefficients r=??0.49 and ρ=??0.46, while between CMEs with widths >?30^° and cosmic ray intensity we found r=??0.75 and ρ=??0.77, which implies a significant increase. Finally, the best expression for the P _i-index for the examined period was analyzed. The highly anticorrelated behavior among this CME index, the cosmic ray intensity (r=??0.84 and ρ=??0.83), and the sunspot number (r=+?0.82 and ρ=+?0.89) suggests that the first one is a very useful solar–heliospheric parameter for heliospheric and space weather models in general.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation and the Last Solar Minimum

In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.     

Modulation Cycles of Galactic Cosmic Ray Diurnal Anisotropy Variation

The diurnal variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) count rates measured by a ground-based neutron monitor (NM) station represents an anisotropic flow of GCR at 1 AU. The variation of the local time of GCR maximum intensity (we call the phase) is thought in general to have a period of two sunspot cycles (22 years). However, other interpretations are also possible. In order to determine the cyclic behavior of GCR anisotropic variation more precisely, we have carried out a statistical study on the diurnal variation of the phase. We examined 54-year data of Huancayo (Haleakala), 40-year data from Rome, and 43-year data from Oulu NM stations using the ‘pile-up’ method and the F-test. We found that the phase variation has two components: of 22-year and 11-year cycles. All NM stations show mainly the 22-year phase variation controlled by the drift effect due to solar polar magnetic field reversal, regardless of their latitudinal location (cut-off rigidity). However, the lower the NM station latitude is (the higher the cut-off rigidity is), the higher is the contribution from the 11-year phase variation controlled by the diffusion effect due to the change in strength of the interplanetary magnetic fields associated with the sunspot cycle.     

Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays Due to Magnetic Clouds and Associated Structures in the Interplanetary Space: 1996-2018

Astrophysics - We study the modulation of galactic cosmic rays due to magnetic clouds observed during solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2018). We utilize solar wind plasma and field data together with...     

Predictions of Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Deduced from that of Sunspot Number

A new method is proposed to predict cosmic ray intensity and solar modulation parameters. The method is coupled with the McNish and Lincoln method, which predicts first smoothed sunspot numbers. The error achieved is estimated and compared with the same chain of predictions using two other methods developed for US and Russian space applications. The three methods give satisfactory results when applied, for example, to prediction of the dose received on-board commercial aeroplane flights.     

Harmonics of Low Amplitude Anisotropic Wave Train Events in Cosmic Ray Intensity

The unusually low amplitude anisotropic wave train events (LAWEs) in cosmic ray intensity using the ground based Deep River neutron monitor data has been studied during the period 1991–1994. It has been observed that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy for LAWE events significantly remains quite low and statistically constant as compared to the quiet day annual average amplitude for majority of the events. The time of maximum of the diurnal anisotropy of LAWE significantly shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the co-rotational direction and remains in the direction of quiet day annual average anisotropy for majority of the events. On the other hand, the amplitude of the semi/tri-diurnal anisotropy remains statistically the same and high whereas, phase shift towards later hours as compared to the quiet day annual average values for majority of the LAWEs. The diurnal anisotropy vectors are found to shifts towards earlier hours for 50% of the events; whereas they are found to shifts towards later hours for rest of the events (50%) relative to the average vector for the entire period. It is also noted that the amplitude of these vectors are found to increase significantly with the shift of the diurnal anisotropy vectors towards later hours. The high-speed solar wind streams do not play a significant role in causing the LAWE events on short-term basis, however it may be responsible in causing these events on long-term basis (Mishra and Mishra 2007). Occurrence of LAWE is dominant, when the polarity of Bx and Bz remains positive and polarity of By remains negative, which is never been reported earlier. The amplitude of first harmonic shows good anti-correlation and direction of first and third harmonic shows nearly good anti-correlation with solar wind velocity, whereas the direction of second harmonic shows nearly good anti-correlation with interplanetary magnetic field strength.     

Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations in Relation with Solar Flare Index and Sunspot Numbers

From the monthly data of cosmic ray intensity (CRI), sunspot numbers (SSN) and solar flare index (SFI), an attempt has been made to study the relationship between CRI and solar activity (SA) parameters SSN and SFI. The correlation between SA parameters and CRI for different neutron monitoring stations having low, middle and high cut-off rigidity has been investigated. The anti-correlation between SA and CRI is found to exist with some time lag. Based on the method of minimizing correlation coefficient and time-delayed component method, the observed time-lag between SA parameters (SSN and SFI) and CRI has been found to be large for odd solar cycles in comparison to even solar cycles. The results of time-lag analysis between CRI and SSN and between CRI-SFI have also been compared. The findings of correlative study between CRI and SSN are in agreement with earlier results, while the CRI-SFI relationship provides new insights to understand the solar modulation of cosmic rays.     

Non-Linear Amplification of a Magnetic Field Driven by Cosmic Ray Streaming

One dimensional numerical results of the non-linear interaction between cosmic rays and a magnetic field are presented. These show that cosmic ray streaming drives large amplitude Alfvénic waves. The cosmic ray streaming energy is very efficiently transfered to the perturbed magnetic field of the Alfvén waves. Thus a magnetic field of interstellar values, assumed in models of supernova remnant blast wave acceleration, would not be appropriate in the region of the shock. The increased magnetic field reduces the acceleration time and so increases the maximum cosmic ray energy, which may provide a simple and elegant resolution to the highest energy galactic cosmic ray problem were the cosmic rays themselves provide the fields necessary for their acceleration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Magnetic Helicity Budget of Solar-Active Regions from the Photosphere to Magnetic Clouds

We have analyzed the long-term evolution of two active regions (ARs) from their emergence through their decay using observations from several instruments on board SoHO (MDI, EIT and LASCO) and Yohkoh/SXT. We have computed the evolution of the relative coronal magnetic helicity combining data from MDI and SXT with a linear force-free model of the coronal magnetic field. Next, we have computed the injection of helicity by surface differential rotation using MDI magnetic maps. To estimate the depletion of helicity we have counted all the CMEs of which these ARs have been the source, and we have evaluated their magnetic helicity assuming a one to one correspondence with magnetic clouds with an average helicity contain. When these three values (variation of coronal magnetic helicity, injection by differential rotation and ejection via CMEs) are compared, we find that surface differential rotation is a minor contributor to the helicity budget since CMEs carry away at least 10 times more helicity than the one differential rotation can provide. Therefore, the magnetic helicity flux needed in the global balance should come from localized photospheric motions that, at least partially, reflect the emergence of twisted flux tubes. We estimate that the total helicity carried away in CMEs can be provided by the end-to-end helicity of the flux tubes forming these ARs. Therefore, we conclude that most of the helicity ejected in CMEs is generated below the photosphere and emerges with the magnetic flux.     

The Asymptotic Longitudinal Cosmic Ray Intensity Distribution as a Precursor of Forbush Decreases

Identifying the precursors (pre-increases or pre-decreases) of a geomagnetic storm or a Forbush decrease is of great importance since they can forecast and warn of oncoming space weather effects. A wide investigation using 93 events which occurred in the period from 1967 to 2006 with an anisotropy A _xy >1.2% has been conducted. Twenty-seven of the events revealed clear signs of precursors and were classified into three categories. Here we present one of the aforementioned groups, including five Forbush decreases (24 June 1980, 28 October 2000, 17 August 2001, 23 April 2002, and 10 May 2002). Apart from hourly cosmic ray intensity data, provided by the worldwide network of neutron monitor stations, data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field were used for the analysis of the examined cosmic ray intensity decreases. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the “ring of stations” method. Results reveal a long pre-decrease up to 24 hours before the shock arrival in a narrow longitudinal zone from 90° to 180°.     

The Role of Extragalactic Antimatter in Cosmic Ray Observations Near Earth

Quest for antimatter in cosmic rays has revealed no compelling evidence of primary, extragalactic antiparticles up to the present time. Recent positron and antiproton observations have been found to be consistent with a pure galactic origin up to energies of 50 GeV and 20 GeV respectively. In this paper it is discussed which role might be played by Ultra High Energy (UHE) extragalactic particles and antiparticles in cosmic-ray observations near Earth. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Study of the Cosmic Ray Diurnal Anisotropy During Different Solar and Magnetic Conditions

The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of four neutron monitor stations have been employed to study the variation of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy for a period of about 50 years (1955–2003). These neutron monitors, at Oulu ( R _c = 0.78 GV), Deep River ( R _c = 1.07 GV), Climax ( R _c = 2.99 GV), and Huancayo ( R _c = 12.91 GV) are well distributed on the earth over different latitudes and their data have been analyzed. The amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar cycle (∼11 years), while the phase varies with a period of two solar cycles (∼22 years). In addition to its variation on year-to-year basis, the average diurnal amplitude and phase has also been calculated by grouping the days for each solar cycle, viz. 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23. As a result of these groupings over solar cycles, no significant change in the diurnal vectors (amplitude as well as phase) from one cycle to other has been observed. Data were analyzed by arranging them into groups on the basis of the polarity of the solar polar magnetic field and consequently on the basis of polarity states of the heliosphere ( A > 0 and A < 0). Difference in time of maximum of diurnal anisotropy (shift to earlier hours) is observed during A < 0 (1970s, 1990s) polarity states as compared to anisotropy observed during A > 0 (1960s, 1980s). This shift in phase of diurnal anisotropy appears to be related to change in preferential entry of cosmic ray particles (via the helioequatorial plane or via solar poles) into the heliosphere due to switch of the heliosphere from one physical/magnetic state to another following the solar polar field reversal.     

The Latitudinal Effect of Corotating Interaction Regions on Galactic Cosmic Rays

The response of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) to an isolated enhancement of the non-axisymmetric component of the solar open magnetic field between June and November 1996 is investigated by using a combination of solar observations and numerical modelling of the interplanetary medium. The most obvious coronal hole visible from Earth at the time had little shielding effect on the flux of GCRs, as measured at Earth by neutron monitors. It is found that the evolution of the corotating interaction regions generated by a less obvious coronal hole was the principal controlling factor. Moreover, we demonstrate the imprint of the latitudinal and longitudinal evolution of that coronal hole on the variation of GCRs. The latitudinal extent of this solar minimum corotating interaction region had a determining, but local, shielding effect on GCRs, confirming previous modelling results.     

Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity

We study quasi-periodical changes in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, and the parameters of solar wind and solar activity. We have recently found quasi-periodicity of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3?–?4 CRP) in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (Gil and Alania in J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 73, 294, 2011). A similar recurrence is recognized in parameters of solar activity (sunspot number, solar radio flux) and solar wind (components of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity). We believe that the 3?–?4 CRP periodicity, among other periodicities, observed in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is caused by a specific cycling structure of the Sun’s magnetic field, which may originate from the turbulent nature of the solar dynamo.     

Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years

Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being <?10^?5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈?172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈?112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤?five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.     

Effects of the Sector Structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field on Galactic Cosmic Ray Anisotropy

We study the effects of the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) anisotropy at solar minimum by using Global Network neutron monitor data. The hourly neutron monitor data for 1976 were averaged for the positive (+) and negative (–) IMF sectors (+ and – correspond to the antisolar and solar directions of magnetic field lines, respectively) and then processed by the global survey method. We found that the magnitude of the GCR anisotropy vector is larger in the positive IMF sector and that the phase shifts toward early hours. The derived GCR components A _r, A , and A for the different + and – sectors are then used to calculate the angle ( 46°) between the IMF lines and the Sun–Earth line, the solar wind velocity U ( 420 km/s), the ratio of the perpendicular (K ) and parallel (K _||) diffusion coefficients K /K _|| = ( 0.33), and other parameters that characterize the GCR modulation in interplanetary space.     

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections,Associated Features,and Transient Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

Interplanetary structures such as shocks, sheaths, interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), magnetic clouds, and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are of special interest for the study of the transient modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These structures modulate the GCR intensity with varying amplitudes and recovery-time profiles. It is known that ICMEs are mainly responsible for Forbush decreases in the GCR intensity. However, not all of the ICMEs produce such decreases in GCR intensity. We utilize GCR intensity data recorded by neutron monitors and solar-wind plasma/field data during the passage of ICMEs with different features and structures, and we perform a superposed-epoch analysis of the data. We also adopt the best-fit approach with suitable functions to interpret the observed similarities and differences in various parameters. Using the GCR-effectiveness as a measure of the cosmic-ray response to the passage of ICMEs, about half of the ICMEs identified during 1996?–?2009 are found to produce moderate to very large intensity depressions in GCR intensity. The ICMEs associated with halo CMEs, magnetic-cloud (MC) structures, bidirectional superthermal electron (BDE) signatures, and those driving shocks are 1.5 to 4 times more GCR effective than the ICMEs not associated with these structures/features. Further, the characteristic recovery time of GCR intensity due to shock/BDE/MC/halo-CME-associated ICMEs is larger than those due to ICMEs not associated with these structures/features.