内蒙古大兴安岭林区雷击火灾气候成因分析

利用常规天气图、数值预报产品、卫星云图以及溃变理论的预报工具V-3θ图,对2005年6月30日至7月2日发生在青藏高原东北侧甘肃省区域性持续暴雨天气过程进行了诊断应用综合分析.结果表明:副热带高压西伸北抬外围西南风气流控制青藏高原东北侧,当东北低涡、西风带的冷空气与西南风交汇时,触发强对流;850～200hPa有深厚的水汽层;700 hPa稳定的低涡切变为暴雨提供了强烈持续的辐合上升运动;卫星云图表明持续性暴雨由多个相继生消的中尺度对流系统影响造成的.基于溃变理论的预报方法在西北区域性持续暴雨的起报、结束及落区有很好的预测能力.     

Determining Effects of Area Burned and Fire Severity on Carbon Cycling and Emissions in Siberia

The Russian boreal forest contains about 25% of the global terrestrial biomass, and even a higher percentage of the carbon stored in litter and soils. Fire burns large areas annually, much of it in low-severity surface fires – but data on fire area and impacts or extent of varying fire severity are poor. Changes in land use, cover, and disturbance patterns such as those predicted by global climate change models, have the potential to greatly alter current fire regimes in boreal forests and to significantly impact global carbon budgets. The extent and global importance of fires in the boreal zone have often been greatly underestimated. For the 1998 fire season we estimate from remote sensing data that about 13.3 million ha burned in Siberia. This is about 5 times higher than estimates from the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service (Avialesookhrana) for the same period. We estimate that fires in the Russian boreal forest in 1998 constituted some 14–20% of average annual global carbon emissions from forest fires. Average annual emissions from boreal zone forests may be equivalent to 23–39% of regional fossil fuel emissions in Canada and Russia, respectively. But the lack of accurate data and models introduces large potential errors into these estimates. Improved monitoring and understanding of the landscape extent and severity of fires and effects of fire on carbon storage, air chemistry, vegetation dynamics and structure, and forest health and productivity are essential to provide inputs into global and regional models of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry.     

大兴安岭气候干湿变化及对森林火灾的影响

明确气候变化背景下大兴安岭林区气候干湿状况特征,揭示其对森林火灾的影响,可为该区域森林火灾管理和森林资源保护提供科学依据。基于大兴安岭林区1974—2016年标准化降水指数（SPI）,采用统计分析和对比分析方法,系统研究不同干湿情景对森林火灾发生次数及过火面积的影响,并讨论不同等级干旱对其影响的异同性。结果表明:1974—2016年,年、季尺度上大兴安岭林区气候均呈湿润化趋势。森林火灾发生次数多（少）和过火面积大（小）与气候的干湿状况（等级）基本一致,但森林火灾的发生次数与气候干湿状况相关更为密切。年尺度上,SPI与火灾次数呈负相关,与过火面积的自然对数则呈较弱的负相关;季尺度上,各季节SPI与对应的林火次数和过火面积自然对数均呈显著的负相关,但与过火面积的相关程度差异较大,以春季相关最为显著,秋季次之,夏季则相对较弱;不同季节SPI与年林火次数和过火面积自然对数呈负相关,前一年冬季SPI对当年火灾次数的贡献最大。可见,气候干湿状况对森林火灾的影响存在明显的滞后效应。SPI不仅能较好地反映区域气候的干湿状况,亦能较好地指示森林火灾发生的可能性及发生火灾的过火面积的相对变化情况,可为森林火灾预测和管理提供科学依据。     

Analysis of lightning-induced forest fires in Austria

Besides human-caused fires, lightning is the major reason for forest fire ignition in Austria. In order to analyse the causes of ignition and to characterise lightning-induced forest fires, fire records were compared with the real appearance of lightning events by using the Austrian Lightning Detection and Information System for the period from 1993 to 2010. A probability was estimated for each forest fire being caused by lightning by using a decision tree and decision matrices based on flash characteristics (e.g. amplitude, time, location). It could be shown that 15 % of documented forest fires were lightning-caused. Nearly all lightning-caused fires were found during the summer months, whereas almost 40 % of all fires occurring from June to August were naturally caused. Most lightning-caused fires took place in the south and east of Austria. Lightning fires were more frequent at higher altitudes and primarily affected conifer forests. The median burned area was lower than that for anthropogenic forest fires.     

2003年全球重大天气与气候事件

全球气候持续偏暖。南亚、欧洲大部和北美洲冬季出现异常严寒 ,许多地区遇到数十年未见的暴风雪 (雨 )天气。夏季欧亚大陆和北美的多个国家出现持续高温酷热天气 ,严重干旱导致森林火灾频发 ,经济损失惨重。南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁 ,造成严重洪涝灾害。非洲干旱持续 ,局部发生洪涝。美国 5月遭受特大龙卷风袭击 ,北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多。     

吉林省春秋季林火气象指数的建立及其变化特征

以吉林省为例,利用该省1952—2010年森林火灾(简称林火,下同)次数资料和全省气象站资料,分析该省林火次数时间变化特征及其与气象条件的关系,利用水分平衡法和统计回归方法建立林火次数气候影响评价模型并对其进行比较;在此基础上,利用水分平衡模型建立林火指数时间变化序列。结果表明,林火次数与降水、相对湿度、气温、风速等气象因子关系密切,水分平衡模型的气候影响评价效果优于统计回归模型;近62 a来吉林省林火指数和次数均呈增加趋势,表明气候变化有利于林火发生;2000年之后进入春、秋季林火多发期。     

An assessment of potential change in wildfire activity in the Russian boreal forest zone induced by climate warming during the twenty-first century

The problem of forest fires is very important for Russia. In this paper we consider this problem in the connection with the projection of significant climate change. An approach to determine the magnitude of change in wildfire risk in Russia under the influence of climate warming is discussed. Observations for the European part of Russia and for Siberia have been used in this analysis. A statistical correlation between drought indices calculated by use of monthly sums of temperature and precipitation and the frequency of fire danger was obtained for the forest zone of Russia. The change in fire danger potential was evaluated using temperature and precipitation monthly means at the nodes of a regular spatial grid. Climate change scenarios were obtained from Global Climate Models (GCM) ensemble projections. The maximum increases (about 12–30%) of the number of days with fire danger conditions during the twenty-first century fire season were obtained for the southern forest zone boundary in both the European region of Russia and in Siberia. In the Baikal and Primoriye Regions, fire danger distributions in the twenty-first century are not projected to change significantly.     

Climate change impacts on forest fire potential in boreal conditions in Finland

The aim of this work was to study the forest fire potential and frequency of forest fires under the projected climate change in Finland (N 60°–N 70°). Forest fire index, generally utilized in Finland, was used as an indicator for forest fire potential due to climatological parameters. Climatic scenarios were based on the A2 emission scenario. According to the results, the forest fire potential will have increased by the end of this century; as a result of increased evaporative demand, which will increase more than the rise in precipitation and especially in southern Finland. The annual number of forest fire alarm days is expected to increase in southern Finland to 96–160 days by the end of this century, compared to the current 60–100 days. In the north, the corresponding increase was from 30 to 36 days. The expected increase in the annual frequency of forest fires over the whole country was about 20% by the end of this century compared to the present day. The greatest increase in the frequency of fires, per 1,000 km², was in the southernmost part of the country, with six to nine fires expected annually per 1,000 km² at the end of this century, meaning a 24–29% increase compared to the present day frequencies.     

Climate Change and People-Caused Forest Fire Occurrence in Ontario

Climate change that results from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has the potential to increase temperature and alter rainfall patterns across the boreal forest region of Canada. Daily output from the Canadian Climate Centre coupled general circulation model (GCM) and the Hadley Centre's HadCM3 GCM provided simulated historic climate data and future climate scenarios for the forested area of the province of Ontario, Canada. These models project that in climates of increased greenhouse gases and aerosols, surface air temperatures will increase while seasonal precipitation amounts will remain relatively constant or increase slightly during the forest fire season. These projected changes in weather conditions are used to predict changes in the moisture content of forest fuel, which influences the incidence of people-caused forest fires. Poisson regression analysis methods are used to develop predictive models for the daily number of fires occurring in each of the ecoregions across the forest fire management region of Ontario. This people-caused fire prediction model, combined with GCM data, predicts the total number of people-caused fires in Ontario could increase by approximately 18% by 2020–2040 and50% by the end of the 21st century.     

Ecological Implications of Changes in Drought Patterns: Shifts in Forest Composition in Panama

CO₂ concentration is increasing, temperature is likely to rise, and precipitation patterns might change. Of these potential climatic shifts, it is precipitation that will have the most impact on tropical forests, and seasonal patterns of rainfall and drought will probably be more important than the total quantity of precipitation. Many tree species are limited in distribution by their inability to survive drought. In a 50 ha forest plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama (BCI), nearly all tree and shrub species associated with moist microhabitats are declining in abundance due to a decline in rainfall and lengthening dry seasons. This information forms the basis for a simple, general prediction: drying trends can rapidly remove drought-sensitive species from a forest. If the drying trend continues at BCI, the invasion of drought-tolerant species would be anticipated, but computer models predict that it could take 500 or more years for tree species to invade and become established. Predicting climate-induced changes in tropical forest also requires geographic information on tree distribution relative to precipitation patterns. In central Panama, species with the most restricted ranges are those from areas with a short dry season (10–14 weeks): 26–39% of the tree species in these wet regions do not occur where it is drier. In comparison, just 11–19% of species from the drier side of Panama (18 week dry season) are restricted to the dry region. From this information, I predict that a four-week extension of the dry season could eliminate 25% of the species locally; a nine-week extension in very wet regions could cause 40% extinction. Since drier forests are more deciduous than wetter forests, satellite images that monitor deciduousness might provide a way to assess long-term forest changes caused by changes in drought patterns. I predict that increasing rainfall and shorter dry seasons would not cause major extinction in tropical forest, but that drying trends are a much greater concern. Longer dry seasons may cause considerable local extinction of tree species and rapid forest change, and they will also tend to exacerbate direct human damage, which tends to favor drought-adapted and invasive tree species in favor of moisture-demanding ones.     

2010年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾

2009/2010年冬季,英国等欧洲国家经历自1981年来持续时间最长的寒流;2010年2月27日,罕见强风暴“辛加(Xynthia)”袭击欧洲多国;季风季节,巴基斯坦遭遇80年来最严重的暴雨洪涝;7～8月中旬,俄罗斯的极端高温干旱引发多起森林火灾;7～9月,亚马逊部分地区经历40年来最严重的干旱;10月中旬,超强台风...     

Sources of anthropogenic fire ignitions on the peat-swamp landscape in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Fire disturbance in many tropical forests, including peat swamps, has become more frequent and extensive in recent decades. These fires compromise a variety of ecosystem services, among which mitigating global climate change through carbon storage is particularly important for peat swamps. Indonesia holds the largest amount of tropical peat carbon globally, and mean annual CO₂ emissions from decomposition of deforested and drained peatlands and associated fires in Southeast Asia have been estimated at ∼2000 Mt y-1. A key component to understanding and therefore managing fire in the region is identifying the land use/land cover classes associated with fire ignitions. We assess the oft-asserted claim that escaped fires from oil palm concessions and smallholder farms near settlements are the primary sources of fire in a peat-swamp forest area in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, equivalent to around a third of Kalimantan's total peat area. We use the MODIS Active Fire product from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate the fire origin and spread on the land use/land cover classes of legal, industrial oil palm concessions (the only type of legal concession in the study area), non-forest, and forest, as well as in relation to settlement proximity. We find that most fires (68–71%) originate in non-forest, compared to oil palm concessions (17%–19%), and relatively few (6–9%) are within 5 km of settlements. Moreover, most fires started within oil palm concessions and in close proximity to settlements stay within those boundaries (90% and 88%, respectively), and fires that do escape constitute only a small proportion of all fires on the landscape (2% and 1%, respectively). Similarly, a small proportion of fire detections in forest originate from oil palm concessions (2%) and within close proximity to settlements (2%). However, fire ignition density in oil palm (0.055 ignitions km⁻²) is comparable to that in non-forest (0.060 km-2 ignitions km-²), which is approximately ten times that in forest (0.006 ignitions km⁻²). Ignition density within 5 km of settlements is the highest at 0.125 ignitions km⁻². Furthermore, increased anthropogenic activity in close proximity to oil palm concessions and settlements produces a detectable pattern of fire activity. The number of ignitions decreases exponentially with distance from concessions; the number of ignitions initially increases with distance from settlements, and, around from 7.2 km, then decreases with distance from settlements. These results refute the claim that most fires originate in oil palm concessions, and that fires escaping from oil palm concessions and settlements constitute a major proportion of fires in this study region. However, there is a potential for these land use types to contribute substantially to the fire landscape if their area expands. Effective fire management in this area should therefore target not just oil palm concessions, but also non-forested, degraded areas where ignitions and fires escaping into forest are most likely to occur.     

多年冻土区森林大火对生态服务功能的影响研究

在气候变暖背景下,大兴安岭森林大火导致多年冻土退化,植被发生更新和演替,对森林生态系统服务功能造成重要影响。文中选取大兴安岭北部多年冻土区满归和阿龙山火烧区为研究对象,通过定量方法计算了林火后,固碳释氧效益损失;净化环境效益损失,包括吸收SO₂和粉尘净化价值;水文效益损失,包括防洪和涵养水源效益;小气候效益损失;保护野生生物以及游憩效益损失。研究发现,满归和阿龙山火烧后,生态系统服务效益损失重大。其中,固碳释氧效益和净化环境效益损失较大,分别占总效益损失的42.34%和41.94%;水文效益和保护野生生物效益损失较小,分别为2.82%和0.80%;小气候效益和游憩效益居中,分别占8.61%和3.49%。即使针叶林生态系统恢复到阔叶林生态系统,净化环境效益损失仍然可达69.3%。由此看来,保护多年冻土区的针叶林,减少森林火灾的发生对维持多年冻土区森林生态系统的稳定性和可持续发展至关重要。     

丽水雷击森林火灾天气分析

丽水地处浙西南丘陵地带,属于南岭山脉的余脉,是华东地区唯一的全国生态示范区,森林覆盖率达79%以上。该地森林火灾多发于冬春干燥季节,且人为因素居多,但近年来由于异常干旱,雷击引起相当比例的森林火灾。文章主要应用天气形势分析和物理量分析的方法,从地表状况和天气条件两方面分析了2003和2004年发生在丽水境内4次比较典型的引起森林火灾的雷击天气过程,从中归纳出一些有利于引发雷击森林火灾的地表条件和气象条件,为森林火险的预报和防灾救灾提供参考。     

Estimating emissions from forest fires in Thailand using MODIS active fire product and country specific data

Studies on air pollution and climate change have shown that forest fires constitute one of the major sources of atmospheric trace gases and particulate matter, especially during the dry season. However, these emissions remain difficult to quantify due to uncertainty on the extent of burned areas and deficient knowledge on the forest fire behaviours in each country. This study aims to estimate emissions from forest fires in Thailand by using the combination of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for active fire products and country-specific data based on prescribed burning experiments. The results indicate that 27817 fire hotspots (FHS) associated with forest fires were detected by the MODIS during 2005–2009. These FHS mainly occurred in the northern, western, and upper north-eastern parts of Thailand. Each year, the most significant fires were observed during January–May, with a peak in March. The majority of forest FHS were detected in the afternoon. According to the prescribed burning experiments, the average area of forest burned per fire event was found to fall within the range 1.09 to 12.47 ha, depending upon the terrain slope and weather conditions. The total burned area was computed at 159309 ha corresponding to the surface biomass fuel of 541515 tons dry matter. The forest fire emissions were computed at 855593 tons of CO₂, 56318 tons of CO, 3682 tons of CH₄, 108 tons of N₂O, 4928 tons of PM_2.5, 4603 tons of PM₁₀, 357 tons of BC and 2816 tons of OC.     

Assessment of the management of organizations supplying ecosystem services from tropical forests

Global environmental change leads to degradation of tropical forests in many countries. In response to this pressure, programs for payments for ecosystem services (PES) are developing and organizations are emerging which manage forests in order to supply ecosystem services, rather than only harvest timber. Typically such services are carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, pollination, and watershed protection. Public or private actors interested to invest in or donate money for the provisioning of such services are faced with the problem of choosing the appropriate organization supplying ecosystem services. The goal of this paper was to develop an assessment framework based on the balanced scorecard concept including drivers, impact, performance and context variables. Results of a survey of international market actors were used to determine assessment criteria and their weights. Putting the focus of this paper on drivers and impacts, we assessed Latin American organizations that “sell” ecosystem services from tropical forests in terms of their general management, marketing, forest management, client and stakeholder satisfaction, and forest ecosystem status. We found that supplying organizations vary widely with respect to their achievements in these areas. However, the variance of assessment results is influenced even more by the variance in weights the international market actors allocate to the assessment criteria. The insights of this study can contribute to the continuous improvement of management processes in supplying organizations and can support investors and donors in their decision-making with respect to organization supplying ecosystem services.     

Human Strategies for Coping with El Niño Related Drought in Amazônia

This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers' coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Niño related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amazônia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Niño related weather events. In Amazônia the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events – and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Niño related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Niño related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarém, in Pará State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Niño Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property.     

1998年全球重大气候事件概述

１９９８年,世界大部地区继续偏暖,全球平均气温再创历史新纪录。由于受厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜现象的影响,许多地区气候发生异常,出现了大范围的暴雨洪水和高温干旱天气,中国、孟加拉国和中美洲诸国遭受世纪性洪涝灾害,全球经济损失超过历史最高纪录。冬季,全球大部地区气候异常暖和;年初,北美大陆遭受暴风雪袭击;春季,墨西哥、印度尼西亚因干旱引发严重的森林大火;入夏之后,热浪天气席卷印度、欧洲各国,美国许多地区受到系列龙卷风的袭击;初秋,欧洲大陆又出现了寒流天气,加勒比海地区秋季连遭强飓风袭击     

河南省近年来遥感监测的森林火灾时空分布规律分析

森林火灾作为一种自然灾害,其发生原因不仅来自于自然因素,从众多的火灾调查中发现,更多地来自于人类活动因素,其发生的时空分布特点和规律,受自然和人类活动共同影响.对2003-2008年春、冬季(11月-次年4月)河南省森林防火期内遥感监测并已查明的森林火灾进行统计分析,结果发现:河南省森林火灾近年来有逐年增多的趋势;冬、春之交的3月为森林火灾的高发月份;从火灾的日变化规律来看,12-15时为一天中森林火灾的高发时段;从火灾发生的空间分布来看,伏牛山南麓发生森林火灾的频率较高.     

Some statistical characteristics of drought area variations in the savanna region of Nigeria

Summary The interannual variability of seasonal Bhalme-and-Mooley-type drought indices over the savanna belt of Nigeria is examined and a 57-year (1931–1987) drought area series has been derived using 34 stations. The area under drought conditions is obtained by considering areas which have drought indices of less than — 1.0. The interannual variability of the drought areas is large, demonstrating large variations in the seasonal rainfall over the region. Statistical tests suggest a significant long-term increasing trend in the areal extent of drought. In particular, there is a major shift towards an increase in the mean areal extent of drought between the two periods 1931–1960 and 1961–1987.With 4 Figures