国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。     

Spatial and temporal quantification of resilience at the community scale

Indicators of natural disaster resilience are factors that impact the ability to cope with and adapt to a natural disaster and climate change events. They can either contribute to or detract from resilience. Existing research has emphasized the importance of quantifying resilience in order to estimate baseline resilience and measure progress toward resilience enhancement. Previous attempts at quantification of resilience have not incorporated place-specific indicators or differential weighting of indicators for prioritization of resilience enhancement actions. Previous research efforts have also not incorporated spatial and temporal contexts when attempting to quantify resilience indicators. This research demonstrates the importance for quantifying resilience place-specific indicators, differential weighting of indicators, and the spatial and temporal contexts of indicators for resilience estimation and quantification through a case study of Sarasota County, Florida. This case study was conducted in four phases: preliminary interviews, plan review, focus group, and spatial analysis. Preliminary interviews were intended to contribute to development of research goals. The plan review process served to identify Sarasota County's planning priorities to determine possible indicators of resilience unique to Sarasota County as well as existing and planned county hazard mitigation strategies. The focus group was concerned with identifying resilience indicators through a workshop with officials from Sarasota County. The spatial analysis portion used findings from all three previous phases to demonstrate spatial patterns of resilience. This research demonstrates that although national resilience quantification metrics are useful, local scale resilience estimates appear more useful if community hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation is the primary goal.     

欧盟气候变化适应政策行动及其启示

在简要介绍气候变化对欧洲的影响、欧盟的气候变化适应举措的基础上,分析了欧盟水资源管理、海洋与渔业、沿海地区、农业、林业、生物多样性、金融与保险、减灾防灾、人类健康等9个重点领域的气候变化适应政策行动;总结了欧盟气候变化适应政策行动的特征：以“自上而下”的政府层面举措与“自下而上”的脆弱经济部门应对策略相结合,采取分阶段的推进方式,并重视相关平台工具的开发应用;最后,结合我国国情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了我国加强气候变化适应政策行动的建议：及时制定气候变化适应国家战略;加强气候变化适应的科技基础设施与条件平台建设;加快完善气候变化适应的体制机制建设;强化气候变化适应的能力建设。     

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.     

Gendering Climate Change: Geographical Insights

Although climate change is expected to increase vulnerabilities, marginalization, and sufferings of many in the Global South, impacts will be unevenly felt across social strata. Intersectionalities of social difference, especially along gender and class lines, differentiate the ways in which impacts of climate change are experienced and responded to. Feminist political ecology and feminist geography insights can explain how different groups of people understand, respond to, and cope with variability and uncertainties in nuanced and critical ways, thereby elucidating the gendered implications of climate change. With a regional focus on South Asia, the article underscores the key issues that can be applied geographically elsewhere. Gendered implications of climate change in South Asia are particularly poignant as patriarchal norms, inequities, and inequalities often place women and men in differentiated positions in their abilities to respond to and cope with dramatic changes in socioecological relations but also foreground the complex ways in which social power relations operate in communal responses to adaptation strategies. This is particularly evident in water-related productive and reproductive tasks in agrarian societies that constitute the majority of South Asia. As climate change is expected to exacerbate both ecological degradation (e.g., water shortages) and water-related natural hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones), thereby transforming gender–water geographies, it becomes imperative to undertake careful multiscalar and critical analyses to better inform policymaking. This article elucidates the complex ways that climate change will affect gender and social relations, thereby highlighting the ways that existing policy narratives and adaptation programs might be better informed by geographical insights. To this end, the article encourages feminist and critical geographers to more forcefully and fruitfully engage with global debates on climate change.     

Climate change effects at your doorstep: Geographic visualization to support Nordic homeowners in adapting to climate change

The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. VisAdapt™ is a web-based visualization tool designed to improve Nordic homeowners’ understanding of climate change vulnerability and to support their adaptive actions. VisAdapt is structured to enable individual users to explore several climate change impact parameters, including temperature and precipitation, for their locations and to find information on specific adaptation measures for their house types and locations. The process of testing the tool included a focus group study with homeowners in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden to assess key challenges in geographic visualization, such as the level of interactivity and information. The paper concludes that geographic visualization tools can support homeowners’ climate adaptation processes, but that certain features, such as downscaled climate information are a key element expected by users. Although the assessment of interactivity and data varied both across countries and user experience, a general conclusion is that a geographic visualization tool, like VisAdapt, can make climate change effects and adaptation alternatives tangible and initiate discussions and collaborative reflections.     

Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.     

社区恢复力研究进展及其地理学研究议题

随着人口、资源与环境的矛盾日益加深,灾害已成为可持续发展的重要障碍。在这一背景下,恢复力成为推动社会经济系统可持续发展的新理念和新范式。恢复力研究的范式也由早期的生态恢复力逐渐转向社区恢复力的研究。现有的社区恢复力研究成果主要集中在概念内涵探索、影响因素识别、基于客观指标和基于行动者感知的社区恢复力测度等方面。迄今尚未形成公认的可接受的社区恢复力理论框架;对普通乡村社区研究较多,对特定资源依赖型社区恢复力研究较少;对突发性自然灾害对社区恢复力的影响研究较多,对其他灾害和危机对社区恢复力的影响研究较少;社区恢复力测度方法的适用性和科学性仍待加强;社区恢复力关键影响因素的作用机制仍需进一步探索。在此基础上,提出从地理学视角研究社区恢复力的主要议题,包括社区恢复力的形成机制及其区域差异、动态演变过程、影响因素的作用机理、基于人地关系的社区恢复力感知量表以及具有尺度效应的社区恢复力测度指数等。     

Whose climate change adaptation ‘barriers’? Exploring the coloniality of climate change adaptation policy assemblages in Thailand and beyond

Climate change adaptation (CCA) ‘barriers’ are frequently seen as responses to biophysical climate impacts, and thus defined as ‘obstacles’ to be ‘overcome’, rendered into categories of the techno-managerial. However, barriers are often undertheorized and are blind to explanations of their origins or the causal mechanisms by which they operate. This is especially complex for barrier critiques in the Global South in particular. Using a ‘hybrid’ assemblage and postcolonial approach, this paper disentangles existing barrier critiques in Thailand to lay bare underlying power imbalances and tensions. It finds that ‘simplistic’ vulnerability framings have deep roots in postcolonial histories; ‘complacent’ mainstreaming/budgeting trajectories have been nurtured by various IOs, and not necessarily much-maligned Thai bureaucrats; and limited technical expertise/willingness to engage are not so illogical, but rather results of diverse external forces. Given this, this paper urges institutional actors and researchers to reflect on epistemology, ontology, and their own positionality when assessing barriers in future.     

‘The global warming clock is ticking so see these places while you can’: Voyeuristic tourism and model environmental citizens on Tuvalu's disappearing islands

At a time when climate change is being defined and grappled with around the world as a looming large‐scale environmental crisis, low‐lying Pacific islands are being publicized in a range of practices as ‘disappearing islands’, and their inhabitants as future ‘climate refugees’. This paper is concerned with the disappearing island as a space in which new intersections between environmentalism and tourism can be explored. It analyzes specifically western representational practices associated with climate change imperatives on Tuvalu, an atoll state in the central Pacific. New phenomena are emerging there such as climate change tourism and the transformation of the islands into showcases of renewable energy. These phenomena are analyzed in order to understand how climate change meanings are being shaped by various participants in the debate. I argue that Pacific islanders are heroized as climate change saviours when environmentalists attempt to locate ethnocentric notions of environmentally harmonious, ‘traditional’ culture on disappearing islands. Further, islanders are objectified in the rhetoric of climate change tourism. Imagined destinies for atoll dwellers as climate saviours are sited uncomfortably alongside voyeuristic gazes turned towards inundated islands. Competing forces of compassion and voyeurism produced in the name of the Tuvaluan indigene are entrenching an iconic role for the Tuvaluan atoll dweller as climate change hero/victim.     

气候变化对中国滨海湿地的影响及对策

我国滨海湿地面临着持续退化和损失的风险,其中气候变化通过海平面上升、海水表层温度上升、风暴潮、海水入侵和海岸带侵袭,以及海洋酸碱度变化等一系列影响,导致了沿海湿地的退化与消失,制约了沿海地区的可持续发展。在总结中国湿地退化现状的基础上,分析了气候变化对中国湿地的影响,并从自发性适应和计划性适应两个方面探讨了潜在的滨海湿地气候变化适应性对策。认为将来可进一步加强对滨海湿地气候变化影响与响应机制的监测和研究,为制定相关政策和培养相关管理人员提供依据。     

Perceptions of climate variability and livelihood adaptations relating to gender and wealth among the Adi community of the Eastern Indian Himalayas

The impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on natural resource dependent farmers will further increase their vulnerability. This study describes how Adi farmers in Arunachal Pradesh (India) perceive and adapt to climate variability, and how this is influenced by gender and wealth. A total of 65 male and 71 female Adi farmers were interviewed or participated in focus group discussions. Both men and women have noticed there are fewer rainy days, longer summers, shorter winters and more erratic rainfall. However, some perceptions of change were gender and/or wealth class specific. Adi women noticed changes across areas they control including collecting forest foods, crop harvesting, and fermenting and storing of food. Men noted climate variability had made hunting wild game and marketing agricultural produce more difficult. Wealthy people were better placed to adapt to climate variability than poorer people because they could intensify their production systems. They switched to rainfed maize with improved varieties and horticultural cash crops which need more costly inputs. Wealthy people, particularly men, also received more advice and training than poorer people. Poorer farmers, particularly poor women, adapted predominantly by diversifying activities, such as using drought tolerant oil seeds and subsistence horticultural crops, accessing forest-based resources, rearing pigs and poultry, increasing fishing and the making of handicrafts. Storage, exchange and pooling of local resources were further strategies of the poor. This deeper understanding of Adi livelihood adaptation strategies will help increase their resilience by improving targeting of location specific extension services and adaptation policies.     

The Role of Local Knowledge in the Risk Management of Extreme Climates in Local Communities: A Case Study in a Nomadic NIAHS Site

In the context of climate change, research on extreme climates and disaster risk management has become a crucial component of climate change adaptation. Local communities, which have been facing extreme climates for a long time in their production and daily life, have developed some locally applicable traditional knowledge that has played an important role in their adaptation to extreme climate and disaster risk management. Therefore, this research aims to link Local knowledge (LK) to community extreme climate disaster risk management in order to construct a conceptual model. It then takes the extreme climate adaptation strategy of traditional nomads in a temperate grassland of China as an example to analyze the role of LK in extreme climate adaptation using the proposed theoretical framework. The main research objectives of this study are: (1) To construct a conceptual model to illustrate the relations among extreme climate events, risk management, LK, and farmers' adaptation strategies; (2) To apply the theoretical framework to a field case to reveal context-specific extreme climate adaptation mechanisms with LK as a critical component; (3) To test the framework and provide suggestions for the extreme climates adaptation, and the conservation of LK related to climate change adaptation. The results show that from the perspective of disaster risk management, local communities could manage extreme climates as a disaster risk through adaptation strategies formed from LK, because as a knowledge system, LK contains relevant knowledge covering the whole process of disaster risk management.     

Exploring social creativity in place-making: A case study from a coastal town in Northern Norway

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to explore the relationship between place-making and social creativity. It is grounded in a single case study and an analytical generalization approach to the study of two projects in the town of Vardø, Norway: Vardø Restored and Biotope. Empirical data are presented as thematic stories in becoming, which are discussed using actor–network theory (ANT) and meshwork-inspired analysis. Social creativity is understood as inhabitants’ ability to meet new challenges with creativity. Place-making is understood in terms of place-specific creative and regenerative processes, with a focus on the role of community entrepreneurs and creative community arenas outside the formal planning system. Important findings suggest that social creativity emerges from community activities, in which multiple individuals and actors play important roles. Through these processes, entrepreneurs become community entrepreneurs when their collective orientations are activated. Individual community entrepreneurs can take active roles in stimulating social creativity based on their place-specific commitments, broad value-creation perspectives, and sensitivity to place-specific complexities, as well as by gaining credibility. The author concludes that creative community arenas for direct encounters between many different lifelines and actors, future motives, and collective actions are fundamental for the emergence of social creativity and place-making dynamics.     

中国自然地理学中的气候变化研究前沿进展

气候学是自然地理学的重要组成部分;过去气候变化和当代气候增暖的影响与适应研究是中国自然地理学在气候变化领域的2个主要研究方向。本文综述了这2个研究方向的主要进展,包括：分别简述研究的意义、发展历程与主要科学问题;梳理总结中国过去气候变化重建与时空特征分析,历史时期气候变化的影响,全球增暖背景下中国气候区划变动特征,全球增暖对中国自然生态系统、水资源、农业等方面影响的区域差异,气候变化的综合风险区划等方面的前沿进展,特别是在各方面所取得的主要科学认识;以期为未来的深入研究,特别是编制相关领域和学科发展战略提供参考。     

Now I See: Photovisualization to Support Agricultural Climate Adaptation

To remain viable, agricultural producers will need to adapt to changing climatic conditions in coming decades. Agricultural advisers play an important role in helping producers decide to adopt appropriate adaptation practices. Photovisualizations have the potential to complement currently utilized outreach and education strategies. This research uses a focus group approach to explore (1) whether photovisualizations can aid in decision-making about climate change adaptation, and (2) what characteristics of photovisualizations are most effective at conveying spatial aspects of adaptation practices. We found that photovisualizations generate rich discussions about ecological and economic effects as well as tradeoffs associated with climate adaptation practices. To have the greatest impact, photovisualizations should be used when producers are considering implementing high-cost or high-risk projects, when practices are likely to dramatically change the visual landscape, or when a practice is unfamiliar to a producer.     

羊啃食动力学模拟与内蒙古西部气候变化适应

将定性分析、民主参与式评估和定量数值模拟方法结合起来,对阿拉善气候变化适应问题进行了简要评估并重点分析了土地退化、放牧和草原管理策略之间的关系。阿拉善主要的适应政策是禁牧和生态移民。禁牧后荒漠草原植被得到恢复,但移民增加了绿洲压力,过度开垦又造成周边土地沙化;过度抽取地下水致使水位下降并伴随咸水入侵和地表盐碱化。禁牧的另一个副作用是造成草原鼠害加重及火灾风险增加,生物多样性也呈现先升后降趋势。一些灌木因缺乏啃食出现退化迹象等,说明一定程度的啃食有利于维持草原生态平衡。因此,动物是草原生态系统不可或缺的成员之一。我们用一个包含动物啃食等的森林生态动力模式模拟了啃食动力学,结果表明,有限的放牧有利于草场更新并能充分利用草原资源;过度放牧导致草场退化并伴随羊群死亡。因此,需要将圈养和限制性放牧结合起来,制定可持续性适应政策。     

2021年度自然科学基金申请书关键词透视地理科学研究前沿热点与发展方向

地理科学是提升人类对地球表层认知、探索人地关系、解决资源、环境、发展所面临的复杂问题的重要支撑。引领科学发展,支撑领域人才队伍的建设与培育,是国家自然科学基金委员会的使命与职责。追踪地理科学领域前沿,优化学科布局并开展战略引导是基金委地理科学学科工作的重要任务。以2021年国家自然科学基金地理科学领域4 479项申请书为样本,运用词云分析方法,对申请书的关键词进行统计分析,剖析了地理科学及各分支学科的研究热点。结果表明：“深度学习”“气候变化”“生态系统服务”“高光谱遥感”“青藏高原”“可持续发展”等是2021年地理科学研究内容与方法的热点关键词。在分支学科间交叉融合方面,信息地理学与人文地理学的共现关键词主要有“空间分析模型”“地理信息系统”“遥感”“机器学习”等;自然地理学与人文地理学的共现关键词主要有“生态系统服务”“土地利用”“土地利用变化”“可持续发展”“情景分析”等;自然地理学与信息地理学的共现关键词主要有“遥感监测”“尺度效应”“机器学习”“数字土壤制图”等。未来,国家自然科学基金委员会将从关键词设置、学科间交叉融合等途径入手,进一步从战略层面优化地理科学研究布局,引导科学家聚焦地理学基础理论与热点前沿问题,服务碳中和、乡村振兴等国家重大战略需求。     

Potential distributional changes of invasive crop pest species associated with global climate change

This study investigated the potential global distributional shifts of poikilothermic invasive crop pest species associated with climate change, aiming to understand if their overall global distributions will expand or contract, and how the species distributions will vary across different regions. An ecological niche modelling analysis was conducted for 76 species. The potential distributional changes of the species in 2050 and 2070 were scrutinized for two climate change scenarios, which were further examined across different temperature and precipitation ranges. Results showed that averages of the mean probabilities of presence of the 76 crop pest species were predicted to increase. Higher species turnovers were predicted mostly to occur in areas with increasing predicted species richness. Lower species turnovers, however, were predicted mostly to occur in areas with decreasing predicted species richness. Species richness increases were predicted to occur more often in currently lower temperature (annual mean temperature approximately < 21 °C) or lower precipitation (annual precipitation approximately < 1100 mm) regions. Areas with the current annual mean temperatures at around 27 °C and 7.5 °C, respectively, were predicted to experience the highest decrease and increase in species richness as the climate warms. In conclusion, climate change is likely to expand the pest species’ overall distribution across the globe. It could have more profound impacts on the species distributions of those regions where species richness increases are expected, by altering the species’ community compositions.