Long-term variation of total ozone

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932–1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.     

Stemflow production and intrastorm rainfall intensity variation: an experimental analysis using laboratory rainfall simulation

Laboratory rainfall simulation experiments using a small artificial olive tree are used to show that the fraction of rain falling at a constant intensity that becomes stemflow rises from 9% at 2.5 mm/h to 36.1% at 35 mm/h. Natural rainfall events commonly exhibit wide fluctuations of intensity. Simulated rainfall events each having a mean intensity of 10 mm/h, but containing short intensity peaks of 20 to 100 mm/h at varying intra‐event positions, were used to explore the effect of varying intensity profiles. Results demonstrate that changes in rainfall event profile are associated with wide variation in stemflow flux, stemflow volume and stemflow fraction. When applied to an initially dry plant, rainfall events with a late intensity peak yielded an average peak stemflow flux up to 188% larger than events of contrasting profile, such as early peak events. The increase was smaller, up to 141%, when rain was applied to plants that were already partially wet, but was again found in events with a late intensity peak. Moreover, such events yielded a peak stemflow flux up to approximately seven times larger than comparable events of uniform intensity. Likewise, changing event profile with no change in rainfall depth was associated with a maximum stemflow fraction that was 31% larger than theminimum stemflow fraction, and a maximum stemflow volume that was nearly 37% larger than the minimum stemflow volume. These results suggest that rainfall event profile exerts a significant effect on all of the studied stemflow parameters. It is hypothesized that this is a consequence of the way in which intensity profile affects the rate of wetting‐up of trickle pathways on the plant, and variation in the time taken for these pathways to become fully connected. Event profile must therefore be considered along with plant architecture in seeking to understand stemflow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stratification response of soil water content during rainfall events under different rainfall patterns

Many researchers have studied the influence of rainfall patterns on soil water movement processes using rainfall simulation experiments. However, less attention has been paid to the influence under natural condition. In this paper, rainfall, soil water content (SWC), and soil temperature at 10‐, 20‐, 30‐, 40‐, and 50‐cm depths were simultaneously monitored at 1‐min intervals to measure the variation in SWC (SWCv) in response to rainfall under different rainfall patterns. First, we classified rainfall events into four patterns. During the study period, the main pattern was the advanced rainfall pattern (38% of all rainfall events), whereas the delayed, central, and uniform rainfall patterns had similar frequencies of about 20%. During natural rainfall, rainwater rapidly passed through the top soil layers (10–40 cm) and was accumulated in the bottom layer (50 cm). When a high rainfall pulse occurred, the water storage balance was disturbed, resulting in the drainage of initial soil water from the top layers into the deeper layers. Therefore, the critical function of the top layers and the bottom layers was infiltration and storage, respectively. The source of water stored in the bottom layer was not only rainfall but also the initial soil water in the upper soil layers. Changes in soil temperature at each soil depth were comonitored with SWCv to determine the movement characteristics of soil water under different rainfall patterns. Under the delayed rainfall pattern, preferential flows preferred to occur. Under the other rainfall patterns, matrix flow was the main form of soil water movement. Rainfall amount was a better indicator than rainfall intensity for SWCv in the bottom layer under the delayed rainfall pattern. These results provide insights into the responses of SWCv under different rainfall patterns in northern China.     

Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Hebei Plain

Rainfall is an important climate factor, which has significant impacts on agricultural production and na-tional economic development[1]. Being part of the North China Plain, the Hebei Plain is an agricultural region. Under the continental monsoon climate, it is cold and dry in winter, hot and rainy in summer, and its variable rainfall is concentrated in summer. Droughts and floods occur frequently and impose sig-nificant impacts on agricultural production. Studies on the characteristics and …     

The cloud-microphysical cause of torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis (0604)

After its landfall in China’s mainland in 2006, Typhoon Bilis brought about torrential rainfall amplification at the edge of Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, causing severe disasters. From a cloud-microphysical perspective, we discuss the differences of cloud-microphysical processes before and during the precipitation amplification and possible causes of the rainfall amplification by using high-resolution simulation data. The results show that the cloud-microphysical characteristics during the above two periods are significantly different. With the distinct increase in the rainfall intensity, the cloud hydrometeor contents increase markedly, especially those of the ice-phase hydrometeors including ice, snow and graupel, contributing more to the surface rainfall. The clouds develop highly and vigorously. Comparisons of conversion rates of the cloud hydrometeors between the above two periods show that the distinct increases in the cloud water content caused by the distinct enhancement of the water vapor condensation rate contribute to the surface rainfall mainly in two ways. First, the rain water content increases significantly by accretion of cloud water by rain water, which thus contributes to the surface rainfall. Second, the accretion of cloud water by snow increases significantly the content of snow, which is then converted to graupel by accretion of snow by graupel. And then the graupel melts into rain water, which subsequently contributes to the surface rainfall amplification. In summary, a flow chart is given to clarify the cloud-microphysical cause of the torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis.     

Diurnal variation of ozone flux over corn field in Northwestern Shandong Plain of China

High concentration ground-level ozone(O3)has adverse effects on plant growth and photosynthesis.Compared to the O3concentration-based index,the O3flux-based(especially stomatal O3uptake)index has been considered the better criterion for assessing the impact of ozone on vegetation and ecosystems.This paper reports on a study of O3flux using the eddy covariance technique over a corn field in the Northwestern Shandong Plain of China.Diurnal variation of atmospheric O3concentration,deposition velocity and flux,and their relationships to environmental factors are analyzed.The results show that:(1)During the observation period(9 August–28 September,2011),there was a strong diurnal variation of O3concentration,with low(16.5 nL L?1)and high(60.1 nL L?1)O3mean concentrations observed around 6:30 and 16:00,respectively.Mean O3concentrations during daytime(6:00–18:00)and nighttime(18:00–6:00)were 39.8±23.1 and 20.7±14.1 nL L?1(mean±std),respectively.The maximum observed concentration was 97.5 nL L?1.The concentration was mainly affected by solar radiation and air temperature.(2)Whether daytime or nighttime,ground-level O3flux is always downward.The diurnal course of mean deposition velocity was divided into 4 phases:a low and stable process during nighttime,fast increasing in early morning,relatively large and steady changes around noon,and quickly decreasing in later afternoon.Daytime and nighttime mean deposition velocities were 0.29 and 0.09 cm s?1,respectively.The maximum deposition velocity was 0.81 cm s?1.The magnitude of deposition velocity was influenced by the corn growth period,and its diurnal variation was significantly correlated with global radiation and relative humidity.(3)O3flux was affected by variations of both O3concentration and deposition velocity,with mean O3fluxes-317.7 and?70.2 ng m?2s?1during daytime and nighttime,respectively.There was strong correlation between O3flux and CO2flux or latent heat flux.By comparing the deposition velocities of daytime and nighttime,we infer that stomatal uptake was probably the main sink of ground-level O3.     

Using data-derived perturbations to incorporate uncertainty in generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfall

Abstract

Raingauge measurements are commonly used to estimate daily areal rainfall for catchment modelling. The variation of rainfall between the gauges is usually inadequately captured and areal rainfall estimates are therefore very uncertain. A method of quantifying these uncertainties and incorporating them into ensembles of areal rainfall is demonstrated and tested. The uncertainties are imposed as perturbations based on the differences in areal rainfall that result when half of the raingauges are alternately omitted. Also included is a method of: (a) estimating the proportion rainfall that falls on areas where no gauges are located that are consequently computed as having zero rain, and (b) replacing them with plausible non-zero rainfalls. The model is tested using daily rainfall from two South African catchments and is found to exhibit the expected behaviour. One of the two parameters of the model is obtained from the rainfall data, while the other has direct physical interpretation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Ndiritu, J., 2013. Using data-derived perturbations to incorporate uncertainty in generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfall. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1704–1717.     

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data (CC) series for 1932–1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the (AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed (AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity wasT=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities atT=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5a priori i.e., 2a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may betransient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.     

Extension of Antarctic ozone hole to lower latitudes in the South-American region

A comparison of monthly mean values of total ozone at South Pole, Buenos Aires (Argentina), Cachoeira Paulista and Natal (Brazil), and Huancayo (Peru) revealed that whereas South Pole showed an ozone depletion of 45% in October 1987 (as compared to October, 1977), Buenos Aires showed a small decrease (10%) while the other locations showed very small decreases (1–2%). When daily values are considered, the Antarctic ozone hole of October 1987 seems to have caused 10% depletion at Buenos Aires and 5% at Natal and Huancayo in December 1987. However, a large part of this is normal seasonal variation, except at Huancayo, where a residual effect of 5% depletion in December 1987 remains. The QBO effects (5–8% changes in the ozone level in 2–3 years) could cause 10–15% fluctuations in solar UVB on the ground on clear-sky days and could be a possible health hazard unless factors like cloudiness reduce the UVB intensities.     

Incorporating rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records for simulating runoff and infiltration into soil profiles

Hydrological modelling often implies the use of rainfall data. Its quality and resolution directly affect the accuracy of the simulation results. This study illustrates that a simple approach of incorporating rainfall intensity information in daily rainfall records significantly improves the simulation of surface runoff and rainfall infiltration into soil profiles. The procedure is developed using a frequency analysis on rainfall data of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, collected with a resolution of 10 min and for a consecutive period of 61 years. The frequency analysis of the data allowed the incorporation of rainfall intensity information into daily rainfall records. To test the effect of this approach the surface runoff and water flow into three different soil types was simulated using the HYDRUS‐1D model for a typical dry, normal and wet year. The simulation results whereby the observed 10‐min rainfall data was used as input were considered as the reference. Comparative analysis revealed that the simulations using the 10 min rainfall data deducted from the incorporation of rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records, deviate a maximum 1·2% from the reference and produce much better results than the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve‐number method because rainfall intensity is considered in the procedure presented. The SCS curve‐number method typical overestimates surface runoff during periods of low rainfall intensity (winter) and underestimate runoff during periods of high rainfall intensities (summer). Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface stresses associated with arrested dykes in rift zones

Many theoretical models predict that arrested dykes may generate major grabens at rift-zone surfaces. Arrested dyke tips in eroded rift zones, however, are normally not associated with major grabens or normal faults that could be generated by dyke-induced stresses ahead of the tips, and normal faults and grabens tend to be less common in those parts of eroded rift zones where dykes are comparatively abundant. Similarly, there are feeder dykes, as well as dykes arrested a few metres below the surface, that do not generate faults or grabens at the surface. Here I propose that this discrepancy between theoretical models and field observations may be explained by the mechanical layering of the crust. Numerical models presented here show that abrupt changes in Young's moduli, layers with high dyke-normal compressive stresses (stress barriers), and weak, horizontal contacts have large effects on the dyke-induced stress fields. For the models considered, the surface tensile stresses induced by arrested dykes are normally too small to lead to significant fault or graben formation at the rift-zone surface. The only significant dyke-induced surface tensile stresses (2 MPa) in these models are for a dyke tip arrested at 1 km depth below the surface of a rift zone with a weak contact at 400 m depth and subject to extension. That tensile stress, however, peaks above the ends of the weak horizontal contact, which, in the model considered, occur at distances of 4 km to either side of the dyke, and shows no simple relation to the depth to the dyke tip. Thus, for a layered crust with weak contacts, straightforward inversion of surface geodetic data to infer dyke geometries may result in unreliable results.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods     

An evaluation of numerical weather prediction based rainfall forecasts

ABSTRACT

Assessment of forecast precipitation is required before it can be used as input to hydrological models. Using radar observations in southeastern Australia, forecast rainfall from the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) was evaluated for 2010 and 2011. Radar rain intensities were first calibrated to gauge rainfall data from four research rainfall stations at hourly time steps. It is shown that the Australian ACCESS model (ACCESS-A) overestimated rainfall in low precipitation areas and underestimated elevated accumulations in high rainfall areas. The forecast errors were found to be dependent on the rainfall magnitude. Since the cumulative rainfall observations varied across the area and through the year, the relative error (RE) in the forecasts varied considerably with space and time, such that there was no consistent bias across the study area. Moreover, further analysis indicated that both location and magnitude errors were the main sources of forecast uncertainties on hourly accumulations, while magnitude was the dominant error on the daily time scale. Consequently, the precipitation output from ACCESS-A may not be useful for direct application in hydrological modelling, and pre-processing approaches such as bias correction or exceedance probability correction will likely be necessary for application of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

Maximum entropy spectral analysis of total ozone

Total ozone data series for 1957–82 at ten locations were subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Besides the annual, semi-annual, and quasi-biennial oscillations, peaks were noticed at 3.5–4, 6–7, and 10–11 years. For Arosa, Switzerland, for a longer period (1932–71), an additional peak was indicated at about 16 years.     

太湖平原高度城镇化下降雨特征时空变化研究

随着人类活动和气候变化影响的加剧,降雨特征变化引发的洪水问题日益突出,探讨其时空演变特征对保障高度城镇化地区洪涝安全有较大理论和实际意义.本研究以高度城镇化的太湖平原地区为例,选取降雨强度、降雨历时、降雨集中程度和降雨峰值程度为降雨类型特征指标,以高分辨率短历时加权集合降水资料MSWEP(multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation)为基础探讨了快速城市化发展下(1979—2016年)不同降雨历时—强度—类型的时空演变规律及其演变机制.研究结果表明：(1)研究区的降雨频次呈现出强度小、历时短、雨量集中于中期和高峰型降雨发生的频次高的特征;同时历时较短、集中于前期和后期的降雨频次趋于增加,而历时较长、集中于中期且中峰型降雨的频次趋于减少.(2)城镇化对降雨雨型的影响分析发现,高城镇化水平地区较低城镇化水平地区的降雨量更大,其中降雨强度大于25 mm/d的大雨和暴雨事件更易发生;并且更倾向于发生前期型和高峰型的极端分布降雨.随着城镇化发展研究区更易于遭受因降雨量过于集中而导致的雨涝灾害.     

Reliability of rainfall kinetic power–intensity relationships

The rainfall erosivity plays a fundamental role in water soil erosion processes and it can be expressed by its kinetic power. At first in this paper, the raindrop‐size distributions measured, in the period June 2006–March 2014, by an optical disdrometer installed at the Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences of University of Palermo are aggregated into rainfall intensity classes, having different ranges, and the measured kinetic power values are determined. Measured kinetic power values are initially used for testing the applicability of the kinetic power‐rainfall intensity relationships proposed by Wischmeier and Smith ( 1978 ), used in Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), Brown and Foster ( 1987 ) (RUSLE), and McGregor et al. ( 1995 ) (RUSLE2). Then, the reliability of a theoretical relationship for estimating the kinetic power by rainfall intensity and median volume diameter is verified. Finally, using the literature available datasets, corresponding to measurements carried out by different techniques and in different geographical sites, the analysis demonstrated that the rainfall intensity is not sufficient to determine the rainfall kinetic power. On the contrary, the theoretically deduced relationship allows to reproduce adequately the kinetic power of all available datasets, demonstrating that the knowledge of both rainfall intensity and median volume diameter allows a reliable estimate of the rainfall erosivity.     

Temperature and ozone variations in the stratosphere

Examined are temperature and ozone variations in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere during the period 1958–77, as estimated from radiosondes rocketsondes, ozonesondes, and Umkehr measurements. The temperature variation in the low tropical stratosphere is a combination of the variation associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation, and a variation nearly out of phase with the pronounced 3-yearly temperature oscillation (Southern Oscillation) present in the tropical troposphere since 1963. Based on radiosonde and rocketsonde data, the quasibiennial temperature oscillation can be traced as high as the stratopause, the phase varying with both height and latitude. However, the rocketsonde-derived temperature decrease of several degrees Celsius in the 25–55 km layer of the Western Hemisphere between 1969 (sunspot maximum) and 1976 (sunspot minimum) is not apparent in high-level radiosonde data, so that caution is advised with respect to a possible solar-terrestrial relation.There has been a strong quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone in the 8–16 km layer of the north polar region, with ozone minimum near the time of quasi-biennial west wind maximum at a height of 20 km in the tropics. A quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone (of similar phase) is also apparent from both ozonesonde data and Umkehr measurements in 8–16 and 16–24 km layers of north temperate latitudes, but not higher up. Both measurement techniques also suggest a slight overall ozone decrease in the same layers between 1969 and 1976, but no overall ozone change in the 24–32 km layer. Umkehr measurements indicate a significant 6–8% increase in ozone amount in all stratospheric layers between 1964 and 1970, and in 1977 the ozone amount in the 32–46 km layer was still 4% above average despite the predicted depletion due to fluorocarbon emissions. The decrease in ozone in the 32–46 km, layer of mid latitudes following the volcanic eruptions of Agung and Fuego is believed to be mostly fictitious and due to the bias introduced into the Umkehr technique by stratospheric aerosols of volcanic origin. Above-average water vapor amounts in the low stratosphere at Washington, DC, appear closely related to warm tropospheric temperatures in the tropics, presumably reflecting variations in strength of the Hadley circulation.     

Aerosol extinction and ozone measurements

The effect of aerosol extinction on Dobson measurements of total ozone is investigated, and several recent attempts to resolve this problem are reviewed. It is pointed out that the balloon measurements of Paetzold and his colleagues circumvent this problem: Solar-cycle and quasi-biennial effects can be clearly discerned in the balloon data. It is suggested that Paetzold's data would be ideal for testing stratospheric models and searching for man's effect on the stratospheric ozone layer.     

Annual and semiannual oscillations of stratospheric ozone

The global structures of annual oscillation (AO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO) of stratospheric ozone are examined by applying spherical harmonic analysis to the ozone data obtained from the Nimbus-7 solar backscattered UV-radiation (SBUV) measurements for the period November 1978 to October 1980. Significant features of the results are: (1) while the stratospheric ozone AO is prevalent only in the polar regions, the ozone SAO prevails both in the equatorial and polar stratospheres; (2) the vertical distribution of the equatorial ozone SAO has a broad maximum of the order of 0.5 (mixing ratio in g/g) and the maximum appears earlier at high altitude (shifting from May [and November] at 0.3 mb [60 km] to November [and May] at 40 mb); (3) above the 40 km level, the maximum of the polar ozone SAO shifts upward towards later phase with altitude with a rate of approximately 10 km/month in both hemispheres; (4) vertical distributions of the polar ozone AOs and SAOs show two peaks in amplitude with a minimum (nodal layer) in between and a rapid phase change with altitude takes place in the respective nodal layers; and (5) the heights of the ozone AO- and SAO-peaks decrease with latitude. The main part of AOs and SAOs of stratospheric ozone including hemispheric asymmetries is ascribable to: (i) temperature dependent ozone photochemistry in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, (ii) variations of radiation field in the lower stratosphere affected by the annual cycle of solar illumination and temperature in the upper stratosphere and (iii) meridional ozone transport by dynamical processes in the lower stratosphere.     

Propagation of uncertainty from rainfall to runoff: A case study with a stochastic rainfall generator

We explore the impact of uncertainties in the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall on the prediction of peak discharge in a typical mountain basin. To this end, we use a stochastic generator previously developed for rainfall downscaling, and we estimate the basin response by adopting a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results of the analysis provide information on the minimum rainfall resolution needed for operational flood forecasting, and confirm the sensitivity of peak discharge estimates to errors in the determination of the power spectrum of the precipitation field.     

Automated rainfall simulator for variable rainfall on urban green areas

Rainfall simulators can enhance our understanding of the hydrologic processes affecting the total runoff to urban drainage systems. This knowledge can be used to improve urban drainage designs. In this study, a rainfall simulator is developed to simulate rainfall on urban green surfaces. The rainfall simulator is controlled by a microcomputer programmed to replicate the temporal variations in rainfall intensity of both historical and synthetic rainfall events with constant rainfall intensity on an area of 1 m². The performance of the rainfall simulator is tested under laboratory conditions with regard to spatial uniformity of the rainfall, the kinetic energy of the raindrops, and the ability to replicate historical and synthetic rainfall events with temporally varying intensity. The rainfall simulator is applied in the field to evaluate its functionality under field conditions and the influence of wind on simulated rainfall. Finally, a field study is carried out on the relationship between runoff, soil volumetric water content, and surface slope. Performance and field tests show that the simulated rainfall has a uniform spatial distribution, whereas the kinetic energy of the raindrops is slightly higher than that of other comparable rainfall simulators. The rainfall simulator performs best in low wind speed conditions. The simulator performs well in replicating historical and synthetic rainfall events by matching both intensity variations and accumulated rainfall depth. The field study shows good correlation between rainfall, runoff, infiltration, soil water content, and surface slope.