Long-term variation of total ozone

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932–1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.     

Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Hebei Plain

Rainfall is an important climate factor, which has significant impacts on agricultural production and na-tional economic development[1]. Being part of the North China Plain, the Hebei Plain is an agricultural region. Under the continental monsoon climate, it is cold and dry in winter, hot and rainy in summer, and its variable rainfall is concentrated in summer. Droughts and floods occur frequently and impose sig-nificant impacts on agricultural production. Studies on the characteristics and …     

The cloud-microphysical cause of torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis (0604)

After its landfall in China’s mainland in 2006, Typhoon Bilis brought about torrential rainfall amplification at the edge of Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, causing severe disasters. From a cloud-microphysical perspective, we discuss the differences of cloud-microphysical processes before and during the precipitation amplification and possible causes of the rainfall amplification by using high-resolution simulation data. The results show that the cloud-microphysical characteristics during the above two periods are significantly different. With the distinct increase in the rainfall intensity, the cloud hydrometeor contents increase markedly, especially those of the ice-phase hydrometeors including ice, snow and graupel, contributing more to the surface rainfall. The clouds develop highly and vigorously. Comparisons of conversion rates of the cloud hydrometeors between the above two periods show that the distinct increases in the cloud water content caused by the distinct enhancement of the water vapor condensation rate contribute to the surface rainfall mainly in two ways. First, the rain water content increases significantly by accretion of cloud water by rain water, which thus contributes to the surface rainfall. Second, the accretion of cloud water by snow increases significantly the content of snow, which is then converted to graupel by accretion of snow by graupel. And then the graupel melts into rain water, which subsequently contributes to the surface rainfall amplification. In summary, a flow chart is given to clarify the cloud-microphysical cause of the torrential rainfall amplification associated with Bilis.     

Extension of Antarctic ozone hole to lower latitudes in the South-American region

A comparison of monthly mean values of total ozone at South Pole, Buenos Aires (Argentina), Cachoeira Paulista and Natal (Brazil), and Huancayo (Peru) revealed that whereas South Pole showed an ozone depletion of 45% in October 1987 (as compared to October, 1977), Buenos Aires showed a small decrease (10%) while the other locations showed very small decreases (1–2%). When daily values are considered, the Antarctic ozone hole of October 1987 seems to have caused 10% depletion at Buenos Aires and 5% at Natal and Huancayo in December 1987. However, a large part of this is normal seasonal variation, except at Huancayo, where a residual effect of 5% depletion in December 1987 remains. The QBO effects (5–8% changes in the ozone level in 2–3 years) could cause 10–15% fluctuations in solar UVB on the ground on clear-sky days and could be a possible health hazard unless factors like cloudiness reduce the UVB intensities.     

Maximum entropy spectral analysis of total ozone

Total ozone data series for 1957–82 at ten locations were subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Besides the annual, semi-annual, and quasi-biennial oscillations, peaks were noticed at 3.5–4, 6–7, and 10–11 years. For Arosa, Switzerland, for a longer period (1932–71), an additional peak was indicated at about 16 years.     

Spatial variability of rainfall on a sub‐kilometre scale

The variability of rainfall in space and time is an essential driver of many processes in nature but little is known about its extent on the sub‐kilometre scale, despite many agricultural and environmental experiments on this scale. A network of 13 tipping‐bucket rain gauges was operated on a 1·4 km² test site in southern Germany for four years to quantify spatial trends in rainfall depth, intensity, erosivity, and predicted runoff. The random measuring error ranged from 10% to 0·1% in case of 1 mm and 100 mm rainfall, respectively. The wind effects could be well described by the mean slope of the horizon at the stations. Except for one station, which was excluded from further analysis, the relative differences due to wind were in maximum ±5%. Gradients in rainfall depth representing the 1‐km² scale derived by linear regressions were much larger and ranged from 1·0 to 15·7 mm km^?1 with a mean of 4·2 mm km^?1 (median 3·3 mm km^?1). They mainly developed during short bursts of rain and thus gradients were even larger for rain intensities and caused a variation in rain erosivity of up to 255% for an individual event. The trends did not have a single primary direction and thus level out on the long term, but for short‐time periods or for single events the assumption of spatially uniform rainfall is invalid on the sub‐kilometre scale. The strength of the spatial trend increased with rain intensity. This has important implications for any hydrological or geomorphologic process sensitive to maximum rain intensities, especially when focusing on large, rare events. These sub‐kilometre scale differences are hence highly relevant for environmental processes acting on short‐time scales like flooding or erosion. They should be considered during establishing, validating and application of any event‐based runoff or erosion model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007

Abstract

Currently there is much discussion regarding the impact of climate change and the vagaries of the weather, in particular extreme weather events. The Himalayas form the main natural water resource of the major river systems of the Indian region. We present a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years (1871–2007). Across the entire Himalayas, from east to west, there are now 822 rainfall stations. There was an increase in the rainfall station network from 1947 onwards, especially in the Nepal and Bhutan Himalayas. Extreme one-day rainfall has been picked out for each station irrespective of the period for which data are available. The decadal distribution of these extreme one-day rainfalls shows that there is a considerable increase in the frequencies during the decades 1951–1960 to 1991–2000, whereas there is a sudden decrease in the frequencies in the present decade during 2001–2007, indicating the need to understand the response of the systems to global change and the associated physical and climatological changes. This is essential in terms of preserving this natural resource and to encourage environmental management and sustainable development of mountain regions.

Citation Nandargi, S. & Dhar, O. N. (2011) Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 930–945.     

降雨触发地震研究进展

介绍了降雨触发地震研究进展,讨论了降雨触发地震研究工作中存在的不足,并提出了建议.     

Numerical simulation of laboratory experiments in detention pond routing with long rainfall duration

This paper establishes a numerical detention pond volume model based on the hydrological continuity equation and the Runge-Kutta numerical method. Experiments for the conditions of both steady and unsteady flow have been used to verify the model. In unsteady flow cases, the outflow hydrograph by numerical simulation are fairly consistent with experimental value. Both experimental and numerical results indicate that wider rectangular sharp-crested weirs or larger rectangular slot tend to induce greater outflow discharges, which undesirably cut down the detention volume. Experiments show that the necessary detention volume of rectangular slot is smaller than that of the rectangular sharp-crested weir for a constant flood peak reduction. That is, the rectangular slot is the recommended outflow device when flood peak reduction is the design criteria. The study also shows that necessary detention volume of the short rainfall duration is less than that of the long rainfall duration under constant allowable maximum discharge.     

Instability of exogenous lava lobes during intense rainfall

On many volcanoes, there is evidence of a relationship between dome collapse and periods of high precipitation. We propose a mechanism for this relationship and investigate the conditions that optimize failure by this process. Observations of elongate lobes that evolve through exogenous growth of lava domes reveal that they commonly develop tensile fractures perpendicular to the direction of motion. These cracks can increase in depth by localized cooling and volumetric contraction. During periods of high rainfall, water can fill these cracks, and the increase in fluid pressure on the base of the lobes and within the crack can trigger the collapse of the hot exogenous lava domes. Using limit-equilibrium analysis, it is possible to calculate the water and vapor forces acting on the rear and base of the potentially unstable part of the lobe. The model presented is rectangular in cross-section, with material properties representative of andesitic dome rocks. Vapor pressures at the base of cracks are sealed by the penetrating rainfall, which forms a saturated cap within the lobe. This leads to an increase in fluid pressurization both through the underlying gas pressure and the downslope component of the liquid water cap. Fluid pressurization increases as the penetration depth increases. This rainfall penetration depth is dependent on the thermal properties of the rocks, antecedent temperature, lobe geometry, and the intensity and duration of precipitation. Dominant parameters influencing the stability of the lobe are principally lobe thickness, duration and intensity of rainfall, and antecedent lobe temperature. Our modeling reveals that thicker lobes are intrinsically more unstable due to the amplification of downslope forces in comparison to cohesive strength. The increase in the duration and intensity of rainfall events also increases the potential for collapse, as it leads to deeper liquid penetration. Deeper penetration depths are also achieved through lower antecedent temperatures since less fluid is lost through vaporization. Thus, the potential for rain-triggered collapse increases with time from emplacement.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell     

Advanced use into rainfall prediction of three-dimensionally scanning radar

A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.     

降雨对呼和浩特地震台形变观测的影响

为了研究降雨对定点形变观测的影响,在了解呼和浩特地震台形变观测环境后,分析了伸缩仪、水管倾斜仪和垂直摆倾斜仪的观测数据质量,统计了降雨量和各仪器分量的变化,并进行了相关分析,得到不同形变仪器测项数据变化幅度对降雨量的响应函数,结果显示两者间呈较好的线性相关。     

Low-latitude total ozone measurements in the Brazilian sector

Regular measurements of the atmospheric ozone in the Brazilian sector were started at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), and Natal (5.8°S, 35.2°W) in May 1974 and November 1978, respectively. The results of the total ozone measurements carried out at these two stations up to 1981 are presented in this communication and compared with other low-and mid-latitude stations. Although Natal is an equatorial station, it presents a prominent annual variation, and the average total ozone content is high compared to satellite measurements. During 1977–78, abnormally low values of total ozone were observed at Cachoeira Paulista. Some preliminary results about the QBO 9quasi-biennial oscillation) during 1974–81 are also presented.     

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.     

Loess erosion change modeling during heavy rainfall

A typical gully sub-basin with a complex geomorphological form is used to do a model test of gravity erosion of loess by considering the sequence of slopes in a prototype gully creating a sequence of un-derlying surface forms in the upper reaches.The results show that the runoff from heavy rainfall is the main external force for the erosion of loess,and also is an important influencing factor to stimulate and intensify the development of gravity erosion.The soil structure and the height of the critical surface have a direct impact on the possibility of gravity erosion.Spatially,the upper section of the drainage channel mainly experiences undercutting and headcut erosion,the middle section mainly experiences lateral erosion and gravity erosion,and the lower section alternately experiences sedimentation or alluvial erosion.Rainfall splash erosion produces a large amount of sand to yield high concentration mud flows in the middle and lower sections of the channel.Because of the mud flows the flood flow is obviously larger than the runoff volume formed by rainfall in a small watershed.The flood formed by high-intensity rainfall brings a large amount of sediment into the downstream rivers along the channel,indicating that under the condition that high-intensity rainfall on the Loess Plateau,lots sediment will enter the Yellow River,and the erosion deformation occurs on all slopes.Further the steep slope drainage flow causes undercutting and lateral erosion,and the soil body moves down along the slope under the action of gravity.The gully in the middle section still experience sediment washing in both depth and width,and the downstream gully continues to experiences sedimentation due to the reduction of the gradient,reflecting the adaptive adjustment of water flow and the boundary.Headcut erosion occurred on almost all slopes during different periods of rainfall,while gravity erosion mostly occurred on steep slope sections during periods of high-intensity rainfall.     

Advanced use into rainfall prediction of three-dimensionally scanning radar

A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.     

Intercomparison of New Zealand filter ozonometer and Dobson spectrophotometer total ozone measurements

A commercial version of the prototype New Zealand narrowband interference filter instrument has been run at Garmisch-Partenkirchen since autumn 1977. The vicinity of the Dobson stations Hohenpeissenberg and Arosa permitted a check of the filter instrument's utility, reliability and long-term stability in total ozone measurement by (i) station to station-or short-range intercomparisons of daily means and (ii) a several days' direct intercomparison at Arosa in spring 1978.The regression analysis with the Hohenpeissenberg data-covering the five month autumn-winter 1977/78 period with highly variable ozone-shows that the filter instrument's direct-sun modeX _AD total ozone values were systematically too low by a conversion factor of 0.93. The excellent proportionality between the instruments is indicated by the standard deviation of only 1,3%. The (–7.0±1.3%) bias perfectly agrees with the result reported byBasher [1] for a similar, yet direct, intercomparison.During the direct Arosa intercomparison the filter instrument also tracked down short-time variations in a remarkable, though biased, parallelism with the Dobson instruments, and theX _AD daily means fit well into the prognostic relationship derived from the preceding autumn-winter short-range intercomparison.A creeping deterioration of the characteristics of the 305.5 nm double filter then prevented any furtherX _AD total ozone intercomparison. No final decision is possible whether this behaviour after a half year's run is typical or just an unusual exception. The otherwise excellent long-term stability is demonstrated by the comparison of theX _CD daily means with the HohenpeissenbergX _AD data for a 1 1/2 year's period (autumn 1977–spring 1979), resulting in the same bias relationship as for theX _AD total ozone measurements.     

The summer maximum in total ozone over northwest Europe

Station records of ozone observations have been critically reviewed to investigate the reality of the reported maximum in total ozone over northwest Europe in July. The existence of a longitudinal excess of ozone over the British Isles is confirmed but strong horizontal gradients can be verified only over central Europe and there is no evidence for east-west gradients over the Atlantic. Ozone sounding data as well as total ozone daily variability make it most plausible that the ozone excess over northwest Europe is confined to the lower stratosphere. The isopleths in the region of strong ozone gradients are parallel to the mean flow at 100 mb as required by the calculated constraint on the magnitude of the mean flow advection. It is proposed that analyses of the ozone distribution over oceanic areas could be improved by extending ozone isopleths parallel to the mean lower stratospheric flow from land areas where the pattern is better defined.     

Impact of rainfall movement on soil crust development

The impact of rainfall event movement on soil crust development was investigated via laboratory experiments and physics-based hydrological-response simulation.Runoff and soil water content data were analyzed in order to study different crustal development periods under a variety of precipitation conditions.The results showed that the formation of crust significantly changed soil saturated hydraulic conductivity(K_s) and runoff,while a steady state,which could be broken by an extended period of raindrop impact,was found to exist for both the crust and,subsequently,runoff characteristics.The decrease in K_S was as high as 86%for downstream-moving events,and 72%for upstream-moving events,illustrating that the direction of rainfall movement has a more significant impact on crust formation than rainfall intensity and duration.As downstream-moving rainfall events may have a greater effect than those moving upstream,the development of a depositional crust before raindrop impact may play an important role in determining the final K_S value.     

丰镇井水位变化与降雨量的关系研究

在结合丰镇井区域水文地质条件的基础上,分析了井水位变化与降雨量的关系。研究结果表明：开展水位（年初值、年末值、年极大值、年极小值、年际变幅和极值变幅）与年降雨量的关系研究,对区域震情的跟踪和判定具有十分重要意义。