Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m². These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

PRELIMINARY VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONATION IN JINLONGDINGZI VOLCANO,LONGANG VOLCANO AREA,JILIN PROVINCE,CHINA

Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km². The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger.     

Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy

In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.     

Sumisu volcano,Izu-Bonin arc,Japan: site of a silicic caldera-forming eruption from a small open-ocean island

Sumisu volcano was the site of an eruption during 30–60 ka that introduced ∼48–50 km³ of rhyolite tephra into the open-ocean environment at the front of the Izu-Bonin arc. The resulting caldera is 8 × 10 km in diameter, has steep inner walls 550–780 m high, and a floor averaging 900 m below sea level. In the course of five research cruises to the Sumisu area, a manned submersible, two ROVs, a Deep-Tow camera sled, and dredge samples were used to study the caldera and surrounding areas. These studies were augmented by newly acquired single-channel seismic profiles and multi-beam seafloor swath-mapping. Caldera-wall traverses show that pre-caldera eruptions built a complex of overlapping dacitic and basaltic edifices, that eventually grew above sea level to form an island about 200 m high. The caldera-forming eruption began on the island and probably produced a large eruption column. We interpret that prodigious rates of tephra fallback overwhelmed the Sumisu area, forming huge rafts of floating pumice, choking the nearby water column with hyperconcentrations of slowly settling tephra, and generating pyroclastic gravity currents of water-saturated pumice that traveled downslope along the sea floor. Thick, compositionally similar pumice deposits encountered in ODP Leg 126 cores 70 km to the south could have been deposited by these gravity currents. The caldera-rim, presently at ocean depths of 100–400 m, is mantled by an extensive layer of coarse dense lithic clasts, but syn-caldera pumice deposits are only thin and locally preserved. The paucity of syn-caldera pumice could be due to the combined effects of proximal non-deposition and later erosion by strong ocean currents. Post-caldera edifice instability resulted in the collapse of a 15° sector of the eastern caldera rim and the formation of bathymetrically conspicuous wavy slump structures that disturb much of the volcano’s surface.     

龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。     

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10⁶ m³ DRE (16.3 × 10⁶ m³ bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10⁶ m³ (5 × 10⁶ m³ DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.     

Cooling of tephra during fallout from eruption columns

Models are presented for the cooling of tephra during fallout from explosive eruption columns. All tephra particles are assumed to be spherical and heat loss is considered to occur by radiation and forced convection. Grainsize is the most important control on the cooling. Clasts larger than 25 cm diameter suffer little heat loss, whereas clasts smaller than 1.6 cm diameter are completely cold on deposition. Large clasts form a well-developed chilled margin during fallout and a breadcrust texture can result if vesiculation of the hot interior occurs. The results of these calculations are combined with a model for fallout from the margins of an eruption column to predict the proximal temperature variation with distance from the vent in the deposits. Temperatures high enough for dense welding in proximal fallout deposits can extend from a few hundred metres to nearly 2 km. Extent of the welded facies increases with column height, mean grainsize and magmatic temperature. Welded fallout deposits are only predicted to occur for high temperature silicic and intermediate magmas with temperatures >850°C. These predictions are in good agreement with observations, in that welded fallout deposits have only been documented in high temperature dacites, rhyolites and panellerites. A postulated fallout origin for welded rocks that can be traced significantly further than 2 km from vent must be suspect.     

Great earthquake at 7.3 ka inferred from tsunami deposits in the Sukumo Bay area,Southwestern Japan

Tsunami deposits in Kyushu Island, Southwestern Japan, have been attributed to the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption, but their origin has not been confirmed. We analyzed an 83-cm-thick Holocene event deposit in the SKM core, obtained from incised valley fill in the coastal lowlands near Sukumo Bay, Southwestern Shikoku Island. We confirmed that the event deposit contains K-Ah volcanic ash from the 7.3 ka eruption. The base of the event deposit erodes the underlying inner-bay mud, and the deposit contains material from outside the local terrestrial and marine environment, including angular quartz porphyry from a small inland exposure, oyster shell debris, and a coral fragment. Benthic foraminifers and ostracods in the deposit indicate various habitats, some of which are outside Sukumo Bay. The sand matrix contains low-silica volcanic glass from the late stage of the Kikai caldera eruption. We also documented the same glass in an event deposit in the MIK1 core, from the incised Oyodo River valley in the Miyazaki Plain on Southeastern Kyushu. These two 7.3 ka tsunami deposits join other documented examples that are widely distributed in Southwestern Japan including the Bungo Channel and Beppu Bay in Eastern Kyushu, Tachibana Bay in Western Kyushu, and Zasa Pond on the Kii Peninsula as well as around the caldera itself. The tsunami deposits near the caldera have been divided into older and younger 7.3 ka tsunami deposits, the younger ones matching the set of widespread deposits. We attribute the younger 7.3 ka tsunami deposits to a large tsunami generated by a great interplate earthquake in the Northern part of the Ryukyu Trench and (or) the Western Nankai Trough just after the late stage of the Kikai caldera eruption and the older 7.3 ka tsunami deposits to a small tsunami generated by an interplate earthquake or Kikai caldera eruption.     

Reconstruction of the most recent volcanic eruptions from the Valles caldera,New Mexico

Products of the latest eruptions from the Valles caldera, New Mexico, consist of the El Cajete Pyroclastic Beds and Battleship Rock Ignimbrite, a sequence of pyroclastic fall and density current deposits erupted at ~ 55 ka, capped by the later Banco Bonito Flow erupted at ~ 40 ka, and collectively named the East Fork Member of the Valles Rhyolite. The stratigraphy of the East Fork Member has been the subject of conflicting interpretations in the past; a long-running investigation of short-lived exposures over a period of many years enables us to present a more complete event stratigraphy for these eruptions than has hitherto been possible. The volume of rhyolitic magma erupted during the 55 ka event may have been more than 10 km³, and for the 40 ka event can be estimated with rather more confidence at 4 km³. During the earlier event, plinian eruptions dispersed fallout pumice over much of the Valles caldera, the southern Jemez Mountains, and the Rio Grande rift. We infer a fallout thickness of several decimeters at the site of the city of Santa Fe, and significant ash fall in eastern New Mexico. In contrast, pyroclastic density currents were channeled within the caldera moat and southwestward into the head of Cañon de San Diego, the principal drainage from the caldera. Simultaneous (or rapidly alternating) pyroclastic fallout and density current activity characterized the ~ 55 ka event, with density currents becoming more frequent as the eruption progressed through two distinct stages separated by a brief hiatus. One early pyroclastic surge razed a forest in the southern caldera moat, in a similar manner to the initial blast of the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens. Ignimbrite outflow from the caldera through the drainage notch may have been restricted in runout distance due to steep, rugged topography in this vicinity promoting mixing between flows and air, and the formation of phoenix clouds. Lavas erupted during both the ~ 55 and ~ 40 ka events were largely confined to the caldera moat. Any future rhyolitic eruptions of similar magnitude in the southern or western parts of the Valles caldera will likely affect similar areas.     

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).     

On magma fragmentation by conduit shear stress: Evidence from the Kos Plateau Tuff,Aegean Volcanic Arc

Large silicic explosive eruptions are the most catastrophic volcanic events. Yet, the intratelluric mechanisms underlying are not fully understood. Here we report a field and laboratory study of the Kos Plateau Tuff (KPT, 161 ka, Aegean Volcanic Arc), which provides an excellent geological example of conduit processes that control magma vesiculation and fragmentation during intermediate- to large-scale caldera-forming eruptions. A prominent feature of the KPT is the occurrence of quite unusual platy-shaped tube pumice clasts in pyroclastic fall and current deposits from the early eruption phases preceding caldera collapse. On macroscopic and SEM observations, flat clast faces are elongated parallel to tube vesicles, while transverse surfaces often occur at ~ 45° to vesicle elongation. This peculiar pumice texture provides evidence of high shear stresses related to strong velocity gradients normal to conduit walls, which induced vesiculation and fragmentation of the ascending magma. Either an increasing mass discharge rate without adequate enlargement of a narrow central feeder conduit or a developing fissure-like feeder system related to incipient caldera collapse provided suitable conditions for the generation of plate tube pumice within magma volumes under high shear during the pre-climactic KPT eruption phases. This mechanism implies that the closer to the conduit walls (where the stronger are the velocity gradients) the larger was the proportion of plate vs. conventional (lensoid) juvenile fragments in the ascending gas–pyroclast mixture. Consequently, plate pumice clasts were mainly entrained in the outer portions of the jet and convecting regions of a sustained, Plinian-type, eruption column, as well as in occasional lateral blast currents generated at the vent. As a whole, plate pumice clasts in the peripheral portions of the column were transported at lower altitudes and deposited by fallout or partial collapse closer to the vent relative to lensoid ones that dominated in the inner column portions. The plate tube pumice proportion decreased abruptly up to disappearance during the emplacement of the main pyroclastic currents and lithic-rich breccias related to extensive caldera collapse at the eruption climax, as a consequence of an overall widening of the magma feeder system through the opening of multiple conduits and eruptive vents, along with fissure erosion, concomitant to the disruption of the collapsing block.     

GPR investigation of tephra fallout, Cerro Negro volcano, Nicaragua: a method for constraining parameters used in tephra sedimentation models

Most tephra fallout models rely on the advection–diffusion equation to forecast sedimentation and hence volcanic hazards. Here, we test the application of the advection–diffusion equation to tephra sedimentation using data collected on the proximal (350 to ~1,200?m from the vent) to medial (greater than ~1,200?m from the vent) tephra blanket of a basaltic cinder cone, Cerro Negro volcano, located in Nicaragua. Our understanding of tephra depositional processes at this volcano is significantly improved by combination of sample pit data in the medial zone and high-resolution ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected in the near vent and proximal zones. If the advection–diffusion equation applies, then the thickness of individual tephra deposits should have Gaussian crosswind profiles and exponential decay with distance away from the vent. At Cerro Negro, steady trade winds coupled with brief eruptions of relatively low energy (VEI 2–3) create relatively simple deposits. GPR data were collected along three crosswind profiles at distances of 700–1,600?m from the vent; sample pits were used to estimate thickness of the 1992 tephra deposit up to 13?km from the vent. Horizons identified in proximal GPR profiles exhibit Gaussian distributions with a high degree of statistical confidence, with diffusion coefficients of ~500?m²?s^?1 estimated for the deposits, confirming that the advection–diffusion equation is capable of modeling sedimentation in the proximal zone. The thinning trend downwind of the vent decreases exponentially from the cone base (350?m) to ~1,200?m from the vent. Beyond this distance, deposit overthickening occurs, identified in both GPR and sample pit datasets. The combined data reveal three depositional regimes: (1) a near-vent region on the cone itself, where fallout remobilizes in granular flows upon deposition; (2) a proximal zone in which particles fall from a height of less than ~2?km; and (3) a medial zone, in which particles fall from ~4 to 7?km and the deposit is thicker than expected based on thinning trends observed in the proximal zone of the deposit. This overthickening of the tephra blanket, defining the transition from proximal to medial depositional facies, is indicative of transition from sedimentation dominated by fallout from plume margins to that dominated by fallout from the buoyant eruption cloud—a feature of deposits previously identified in larger-volume eruptions. We interpret this change to represent a change in diffusion law, occurring at total particle fall times (the fall time threshold of numerical models) of ~400?s. Thus, the detailed GPR profiles and pit data collected at Cerro Negro help to validate current numerical models of tephra sedimentation.     

SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA

Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10^-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.     

Stratigraphic framework of Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, Akutan Volcano, east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

 Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat. A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity. Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999     

Chronology and dispersal characteristics of recently (last 5000 years) erupted tephra of Cotopaxi (Ecuador): implications for long-term eruptive forecasting

Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano on earth and one of the most dangerous of Ecuador is constituted by a composite cone made up of lava and tephra erupted from the summit crater. The activity of the present volcano begun with large-volume plinian eruptions followed by a succession of small-volume lava emissions and pyroclastic episodes which led to the edification of a symmetrical cone. The growth of the cone was broken by an episode of slope failure, the scar of which is now obliterated by recent and historical products. Volcanic history, eruptive frequency and characteristics of the activity were investigated by studying the stratigraphy of tephra and carrying out fifteen new ¹⁴C dating on paleosols and charcoals. The investigated period is comprised between the slope failure and the present. The deposit of the volcanic landside (dry debris avalanche of Rio Pita), previously believed to be between 13,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., is now considered to have an age slightly older than 5000 yr B.P. The stratigraphy of tephra of the last 2000 years reveals the existence of 22 fallout layers. Seven of them were dated with ¹⁴C whereas three were ascribed to the eruptions of 1534, 1768 and 1877 on the basis of comparison with historical information.Maximum clast size distribution (isopleths) of 9 tephra layers points out that the sustained explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi during the last 2000 years are characterized by very high dispersive power (plinian plumes with column heights between 28 and 39 km) and high intensity (peak mass discharges from 1.1 to 4.1 × 10⁸kg/s). The magnitude (mass) of tephra fallout deposits calculated from distribution of thickness (isopaches) are, however, moderate (from 0.8 to 7.2 × 10¹¹ kg). The limited volume of magma erupted during each explosive episode is consistent with the lack of caldera collapses. Small-volume pyroclastic flows and surges virtually accompanied all identified tephra fallouts. During such an activity large scale snow/ice melting of the summit glacier produced devastating mudflows comparable in scale to those of 1877 eruption. By assuming a 1:1 correspondence between fallout episodes and generation of large-scale lahar, we have estimated an average recurrence of one explosive, lahartriggering event every 117 years over the last two millennia. This value compares well with that calculated by considering the period since Spanish Conquest. The probability of having an eruption like this in 100 or 200 years is respectively of 0.57 and 0.82. Such an high probability underscores the need for quick actions aimed at the mitigation of Cotopaxi lahar hazard along all the main valleys which originate from the volcano.     

The 2005 eruption of Sierra Negra volcano,Galápagos,Ecuador

Sierra Negra volcano began erupting on 22 October 2005, after a repose of 26 years. A plume of ash and steam more than 13 km high accompanied the initial phase of the eruption and was quickly followed by a ~2-km-long curtain of lava fountains. The eruptive fissure opened inside the north rim of the caldera, on the opposite side of the caldera from an active fault system that experienced an m_b 4.6 earthquake and ~84 cm of uplift on 16 April 2005. The main products of the eruption were an `a`a flow that ponded in the caldera and clastigenic lavas that flowed down the north flank. The `a`a flow grew in an unusual way. Once it had established most of its aerial extent, the interior of the flow was fed via a perched lava pond, causing inflation of the `a`a. This pressurized fluid interior then fed pahoehoe breakouts along the margins of the flow, many of which were subsequently overridden by `a`a, as the crust slowly spread from the center of the pond and tumbled over the pahoehoe. The curtain of lava fountains coalesced with time, and by day 4, only one vent was erupting. The effusion rate slowed from day 7 until the eruption’s end two days later on 30 October. Although the caldera floor had inflated by ~5 m since 1992, and the rate of inflation had accelerated since 2003, there was no transient deformation in the hours or days before the eruption. During the 8 days of the eruption, GPS and InSAR data show that the caldera floor deflated ~5 m, and the volcano contracted horizontally ~6 m. The total eruptive volume is estimated as being ~150×10⁶ m³. The opening-phase tephra is more evolved than the eruptive products that followed. The compositional variation of tephra and lava sampled over the course of the eruption is attributed to eruption from a zoned sill that lies 2.1 km beneath the caldera floor.     

Modelling the impact of a hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)

This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties.     

Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.     

New insights into the initiation and venting of the Bronze-Age eruption of Santorini (Greece), from component analysis

The late-seventeenth century BC Minoan eruption of Santorini discharged 30–60 km³ of magma, and caldera collapse deepened and widened the existing 22 ka caldera. A study of juvenile, cognate, and accidental components in the eruption products provides new constraints on vent development during the five eruptive phases, and on the processes that initiated the eruption. The eruption began with subplinian (phase 0) and plinian (phase 1) phases from a vent on a NE–SW fault line that bisects the volcanic field. During phase 1, the magma fragmentation level dropped from the surface to the level of subvolcanic basement and magmatic intrusions. The fragmentation level shallowed again, and the vent migrated northwards (during phase 2) into the flooded 22 ka caldera. The eruption then became strongly phreatomagmatic and discharged low-temperature ignimbrite containing abundant fragments of post-22 ka, pre-Minoan intracaldera lavas (phase 3). Phase 4 discharged hot, fluidized pyroclastic flows from subaerial vents and constructed three main ignimbrite fans (northwestern, eastern, and southern) around the volcano. The first phase-4 flows were discharged from a vent, or vents, in the northern half of the volcanic field, and laid down lithic-block-rich ignimbrite and lag breccias across much of the NW fan. About a tenth of the lithic debris in these flows was subvolcanic basement. New subaerial vents then opened up, probably across much of the volcanic field, and finer-grained ignimbrite was discharged to form the E and S fans. If major caldera collapse took place during the eruption, it probably occurred during phase 4. Three juvenile components were discharged during the eruption—a volumetrically dominant rhyodacitic pumice and two andesitic components: microphenocryst-rich andesitic pumices and quenched andesitic enclaves. The microphenocryst-rich pumices form a textural, mineralogical, chemical, and thermal continuum with co-erupted hornblende diorite nodules, and together they are interpreted as the contents of a small, variably crystallized intrusion that was fragmented and discharged during the eruption, mostly during phases 0 and 1. The microphenocryst-rich pumices, hornblende diorite, andesitic enclaves, and fragments of pre-Minoan intracaldera andesitic lava together form a chemically distinct suite of Ba-rich, Zr-poor andesites that is unique in the products of Santorini since 530 ka. Once the Minoan magma reservoir was primed for eruption by recharge-generated pressurization, the rhyodacite moved upwards by exploiting the plane of weakness offered by the pre-existing andesite–diorite intrusion, dragging some of the crystal-rich contents of the intrusion with it.