Nino海区SSTA的时频结构特征

根据1950～2003年Nino海区SSTA资料，采用小波变换方法分析了SST变化的多尺度结构及其强度变化。结果表明，Nino海区的SSTA序列表现为多层次相互嵌套的时频结构，存在着2～7a、8～20a和30a以上时间尺度的变化，经检验显著变化周期为2～7a，10a以上和1a以下的周期信号较弱。冷暖事件的能量主要集中在2～7a的尺度上，以准4a尺度的周期振荡最为显著。同一事件在不同海区的频率结构也不相同，1970年以后各尺度上冷暖事件的强度明显增大，有向低频发展的趋势。     

Ni(n)o海区冷暖事件的小波功率谱分析

根据NOAA/CPC发布的1950.1～2003.12期间Ni(n)o海区的SSTA资料,采用小波变换方法分析了SST变化的多时间尺度结构及其强度变化.结果表明,Nino各海区的SSTA序列表现出多层次相互嵌套的时频结构,经检验存在着2～7 a、8～20 a和30 a以上尺度的变化周期;10 a以上和1 a以下时间尺度的周期信号能量较弱,显著性变化周期的能量主要集中在2～7 a的周期振荡上;同一事件在不同海区的频率结构也不完全相同,冷暖事件的振荡能量和显著性水平从东向西有低频增大而高频减弱的变化趋势,时域中1970年以后尤为明显.     

Niño海区冷暖事件的小波功率谱分析

根据NOAA/CPC发布的1950．1-2003-12期间Nino海区的SSTA资料，采用小波变换方法分析了SST变化的多时间尺度结构及其强度变化。结果表明，Nino各海区的SSTA序列表现出多层次相互嵌套的时频结构，经检验存在着2～7a、8-20a和30a以上尺度的变化周期；10a以上和1a以下时间尺度的周期信号能量较弱。显著性变化周期的能量主要集中在2～7a的周期振荡上；同一事件在不同海区的频率结构也不完全相同，冷暖事件的振荡能量和显著性水平从东向西有低频增大而高频减弱的变化趋势，时域中1970年以后尤为明显。     

Nio海区冷暖事件的小波功率谱分析

根据NOAA/CPC发布的1950.1~2003.12期间Ni?o海区的SSTA资料,采用小波变换方法分析了SST变化的多时间尺度结构及其强度变化。结果表明,Ni?o各海区的SSTA序列表现出多层次相互嵌套的时频结构,经检验存在着2~7a、8~20a和30a以上尺度的变化周期;10a以上和1a以下时间尺度的周期信号能量较弱,显著性变化周期的能量主要集中在2~7a的周期振荡上;同一事件在不同海区的频率结构也不完全相同,冷暖事件的振荡能量和显著性水平从东向西有低频增大而高频减弱的变化趋势,时域中1970年以后尤为明显。     

HHT新技术及其对ENSO的诊断

年际及年代际时间变率是当代气候研究的重要问题之一。通过对近百年Nino3区月平均海面温度（SST）资料做HHT多时间尺度分析，结果表明：SST的变化包含了7个不同时间尺度的准周期振荡和一个世纪尺度的气候态，SST的主周期发生了一次显著的变化：1891-1943年主周期是准2a，1944-2002年的主周期是3～4a；分析不同模态对ENSO事件的作用表明：3～4a和6～8a分量决定了ENSO事件发生，具有相位锁定的作用，而其余尺度上的分量起着振幅和持续时间的调制作用；近百年来，冷、暖气候态变化对ENSO的冷、暖事件的影响并不显著；一些研究认为的1977年以来的“暖态有利于ENSO暖事件发生”的主要原因是：准18～20a、40a和平均气候态三个时间尺度振荡的共同作用在1977-2002年期间呈强暖相位的缘故。自20世纪90年代末期，这三个尺度的共同作用在暖相位的振幅显著的减弱，对ENSO暖事件的影响可能会减小，这在ENSO的预报中应该引起注意。     

热带海表温度和低层风场的年际变率及与ENSO循环的相关特征研

采用NCEP/NCAR的1979～1998年逐月平均的海表温度及1000hPa风场资料,进行滤波和均方差计算,得到了热带太平洋、印度洋、大西洋海表温度(SST)和风场的年际变化特征.用旋转主分量(RPC)方法和投影法对热带三大洋海表温度距平(SSTA)进行分析,得到了各大洋SSTA演变的主要时空特征和相应的距平风场特征;并用相关分析研究热带三大洋与ENSO相关的特征,得到三大洋间的同期相关关系为印度洋SSTA与赤道东太平洋SSTA成正相关,而赤道东大西洋SSTA与赤道东太平洋SSTA成弱的负相关;赤道印度洋在落后于赤道东太平洋3个月左右时正相关达到最大,赤道大西洋在超前于赤道东太平洋6个月左右时负相关达到最大;热带印度洋和大西洋与ENSO相关的分量对各自大洋海表温度年际变化的方差贡献数值相近,最大在40%以上,平均解释方差分别为14%和12%.     

热带西太平洋海表温度的季节内变化

热带西太平洋海表温度(SST)具有明显的季节内(30天-60天)变化,它与热带对流活动有着同一时间尺度的耦合关系,位相相差10天-20天.在向东传播的30天-60天振荡以东地区SST异常偏高,海气反馈系统显示出非常明显的30天-60天振荡.同时,也发现具有30天-60天时间尺度位相差海气耦合,在1981年北半球夏季期间在热带西太平洋表现较弱,这一年正是1982年-1983年厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)事件的前一年.     

华南近海近40年的实测SST变化特征

使用实测月平均海表温度（SST）资料序列研究华南近海区域的变化特征,得出：华南近海的月和年平均SST皆以上升趋势为主,年平均SST最近44年的线性增长率为0.12～0.19℃/10年,冬半年的上升幅度普遍高于夏半年。其变率冬半年远大于夏半年,最大为2、3月份,显著的冷暖事件也多发生于冬半年;冬半年东部变率较小,而夏半年则以东部较大。运用小波多分辨分析方法进行周期特征分析,华南近海各站SST的各尺度的分量序列十分相近,其中低频分量显示华南近海SST始于1970年代中期的上升趋势延续至今,其变化以年内变化为主。华南近海SSTA与Ni？o4指数同期相关很好,与Ni？o3,4区超前4个月时相关最显著。Ni？o各海区SSTA与华南近海SSTA的小波多分辨分析所得平滑成分、2.3～4.6年成分间的相关最为显著,其他年以上尺度的相关也高于SSTA序列间的相关,可见华南近海SST年际以上时间尺度的变化与ENSO变化有密切关系。     

平流层极涡振荡与ENSO热带海温异常的时空联系

利用一个在等熵位涡坐标下建立的平流层极涡振荡(Polar Vortex Oscillation)指数,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA_OISST_V2逐周海温资料,研究了月尺度以上热带海温异常与平流层极涡振荡的时间和空间联系,通过相关、回归以及合成分析发现,两者的显著联系主要发生在3—5年的年际时间尺度上,表现为ENSO型海温异常与极涡振荡年际趋势之间的时空关联。首先,两者的关系并不表现在同期相关上,而是当ENSO海温异常超前极涡振荡年际异常9—11个月时,两者具有最大的负相关关系。当前期热带海温偏暖(冷)时,9—11个月后极涡振荡的年际趋势为负(正)的异常,即极涡偏弱(强)或负(正)振荡事件为主。统计合成结果进一步证实,前期热带ENSO海温暖事件背景下,后期极涡振荡负事件的发生比正事件更多,强度更强,持续时间也更长,反之亦然;另外,前期热带ENSO暖海温背景下,极涡正、负振荡事件的发生均更频繁。研究连接热带ENSO海温异常与平流层极涡振荡的过程发现,热带海温异常不仅可在热带地区引起大气温度的异常响应,而且可以引发从平流层热带到极区的一系列温度异常同时向下和向极区的传播过程,并与9—11个月以后发生在极区的极涡振荡异常相联系。表明与热带海温异常相联系的极涡振荡年际异常,可能存在与季节尺度极涡振荡中类似的全球质量环流的异常变化。     

热带海表温度和低层风场的年际变率及与ENSO循环的相关特征研究

采用 NCEP/NCAR的 1 979～ 1 998年逐月平均的海表温度及 1 0 0 0 h Pa风场资料 ,进行滤波和均方差计算 ,得到了热带太平洋、印度洋、大西洋海表温度 (SST)和风场的年际变化特征。用旋转主分量 (RPC)方法和投影法对热带三大洋海表温度距平 (SSTA)进行分析 ,得到了各大洋 SSTA演变的主要时空特征和相应的距平风场特征 ;并用相关分析研究热带三大洋与ENSO相关的特征 ,得到三大洋间的同期相关关系为 :印度洋 SSTA与赤道东太平洋 SSTA成正相关 ,而赤道东大西洋 SSTA与赤道东太平洋 SSTA成弱的负相关 ;赤道印度洋在落后于赤道东太平洋 3个月左右时正相关达到最大 ,赤道大西洋在超前于赤道东太平洋 6个月左右时负相关达到最大 ;热带印度洋和大西洋与 ENSO相关的分量对各自大洋海表温度年际变化的方差贡献数值相近 ,最大在 40 %以上 ,平均解释方差分别为 1 4%和 1 2 %。     

北太平洋海温Victoria模态与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征

利用美国NOAA海表温度资料,重点分析了北太平洋海温异常EOF第二模态Victoria模态(VM)与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征.研究发现,VM和ENSO在年代际尺度上相关性较弱,而在年际尺度上有很好的相关关系,两者同期为负相关,VM超前1 a为正相关.然而,正负VM事件与ENSO冷暖位相在年际尺度上的联系存在着一定的...     

春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系

利用1951—2016年HadISST逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及1958—2016年美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)提供的OAFlux数据集,运用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和偏相关分析等统计方法,研究了春季北大西洋海温异常的主要特征及其与春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO联系。结果表明:春季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是自北而南出现的三极结构的海温距平型,其方差贡献率为35.7%。春季北大西洋三极型海温异常的形成主要受到春季NAO主导作用,还受到前期冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的影响。消除前期冬季Niňo3.4的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)指数的偏相关系数分别为0.50,通过了99%置信度水平的显著性检验。消除春季NAO的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与前期冬季Niňo3.4指数的偏相关系数为-0.26,通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。春季NAO正(负)位相引起的海表风场和海表湍流热通量的异常,进而激发出正(负)位相的北大西洋三极型海温异常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大气环流异常和热带外海温异常,进而调制春季NAO对北大西洋三极型海温异常的影响。     

赤道东太平洋海温与我国江淮流域夏季旱涝的成因分析

对赤道东太平洋和西太平洋暖池海温与江淮流域夏季降水的关系作功率谱分析和相关分析.指出秋冬季增暖的厄尔尼诺事件对应江淮流域夏季降水偏多, 春夏季开始发展的ENSO事件江淮流域夏季降水偏少.对两种在不同季节增暖的ENSO事件对应的异常流场特征及其对江淮流域降水的影响用1991年和1994年实例作对比分析.不同季节增暖的ENSO事件在太平洋热带地区环流调整的不同阶段可能是影响夏季风活动和东亚夏季天气气候异常的主要原因.     

Variations in seasonal rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

 Analysis of data from seventeen rainfall stations in the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands and Northern Africa has revealed significant El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in Europe. Both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) exert an influence on Iberian climate, but at different temporal and spatial scales. Though most of the peninsula is under NAO influence in winter, some stations in the eastern region show no connection with this phenomenon. The same is found for ENSO, with a positively correlated region appearing in the eastern part of Spain, while the rest of the peninsula remains insensitive. The correlation between ENSO and Iberian rainfall has increased towards the end of the present century, with strong positive signals spanning over half of the area studied. The percentage of springtime variability due to ENSO has similarly increased, reaching up to 50% in certain areas. We also show how there are outstanding climatic sensors of these phenomena such as Lake Gallocanta, which manifests a positive response to ENSO while appears insensitive to NAO. Common long-term patterns are observed between SOI and an inferred lake level series, suggesting a constant influence of the low-frequency component of ENSO throughout the period considered. Lake drying phases every 14 years reflect the impact of this signal, approximately every four ENSO events. Received: 6 June 1996/Accepted: 30 October 1996     

Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s

Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds over the southern African plateau. These results are consistent with the strong droughts observed over all southern Africa during ENSO events since 1970.     

Modes of SST variability and the fluctuation of global mean temperature

Annually averaged global mean land air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) combined, and global mean SST alone share similar fluctuations. We examine contributions by modes of SST variability in the global mean SST based on a new version (version 3) of global sea-ice and SST (GISST3). Besides a trend mode, the dominant modes are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), interhemispheric oscillation, and North Pacific oscillation. Statistics over the period of 1880–1997 show that excluding a warming trend the fluctuation on interannual (IA) and decadal-interdecadal (DID) time scales is dominated by IA ENSO and DID ENSO-like variability. However, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles experiences significant fluctuations, and there appears to be strong modulations by ENSO-like variability on DID or longer time scales: during several decade-long periods, when DID ENSO-like variability raises the temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles weakens to an insignificant level. The latest example of such modulation is the period since about 1980; despite the exceptional strength of El Niño events, the contribution by IA ENSO cycles weakens, suggesting that the exceptional strength is a consequence of superposition of IA El Niño events, a warming phase of DID ENSO-like variability, and possibly an ENSO-like warming trend.     

Daily atmospheric variability in the South American monsoon system

The space–time structure of the daily atmospheric variability in the South American monsoon system has been studied using multichannel singular spectrum analysis of daily outgoing longwave radiation. The three leading eigenmodes are found to have low-frequency variability while four other modes form higher frequency oscillations. The first mode has the same time variability as that of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and exhibits strong correlation with the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The second mode varies on a decadal time scale with significant correlation with the Atlantic SST suggesting an association with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The third mode also has decadal variability but shows an association with the SST of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The fourth and fifth modes describe an oscillation that has a period of about 165 days and is associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The sixth and seventh modes describe an intraseasonal oscillation with a period of 52 days which shows strong relation with the Madden-Julian oscillation. There exists an important difference in the variability of convection between Amazon River Basin (ARB) and central-east South America (CESA). Both regions have similar variations due to ENSO though with higher magnitude in ARB. The AMO-related mode has almost identical variations in the two regions, whereas the PDO-related mode has opposite variations. The interseasonal NAO-related mode also has variations of opposite sign with comparable magnitudes in the two regions. The intraseasonal variability over the CESA is robust while it is very weak over the ARB region. The relative contributions from the low-frequency modes mainly determine the interannual variability of the seasonal mean monsoon although the interseasonal oscillation may contribute in a subtle way during certain years. The intraseasonal variability does not seem to influence the interannual variability in either region.     

ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM

The interannual variability associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is investigated using a relatively high-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) of the atmosphere and ocean. Although the flux correction is restricted to annual means of heat and freshwater, the annual as well as the seasonal climate of the CGCM is in good agreement with that of the atmospheric model component forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During a 100-year simulation of the present-day climate, the model is able to capture many features of the observed interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific. This includes amplitude, lifetime and frequency of occurrence of El Ni?o events and also the phase locking of the SST anomalies to the annual cycle. Although the SST warming during the evolution of El Ni?os is too confined spatially, and the warming along the Peruvian coast is much too weak, the patterns and magnitudes of key atmospheric anomalies such as westerly wind stress and precipitation, and also their eastward migration from the western to the central equatorial Pacific is in accord with observations. There is also a qualitative agreement with the results obtained from the atmospheric model forced with observed SSTs from 1979 through 1994. The large-scale dynamic response during the mature phase of ENSO (December through February) is characterized by an eastward displacement and weakening of the Walker cell in the Pacific while the Hadley cell intensifies and moves equatorward. Similar to the observations, there is a positive correlation between tropical Pacific SST and the winter circulation in the North Pacific. The deepening of the Aleutian low during the ENSO winters is well captured by the model as well as the cooling in the central North Pacific and the warming over Canada and Alaska. However, there are indications that the anomalies of both SST and atmospheric circulation are overemphasized in the North Pacific. Finally, there is evidence of a coherent downstream effect over the North Atlantic as indicated by negative correlations between the PNA index and the NAO index, for example. The weakening of the westerlies across the North Atlantic in ENSO winters which is related to a weakening and southwestward displacement of the Icelandic low, is in broad agreement with the observations, as well as the weak tendency for colder than normal winters in Europe. Received: 31 October 1995 / Accepted: 29 May 1996     

High and low latitude types of the downstream influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Using reanalysis data, we find that the downstream-propagating quasi-stationary Rossby wave train associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally propagates along a high (low)-latitude pathway during warm (cold) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) boreal winters. Consistent with the different propagation directions of the NAO-related downstream wave train, during the warm (cold) ENSO winters, the NAO is associated with significant 300 hPa geopotential height anomalies over eastern Siberia (the Arabian Sea, the east coast of Asia at around 40°N, and the North Pacific), and the near-surface air temperature perturbations associated with the NAO over the high latitudes of Asia are relatively strong (weak). Based on these differences, we argue that the NAO has two distinct types of downstream influence: a high-latitude type and a low-latitude type. Furthermore, we argue that the two types of NAO’s downstream influence are modulated by the intensity of the subtropical potential vorticity (PV) meridional gradient over Africa. When this gradient is weak (strong), as in the warm (cold) ENSO winters, the NAO’s downstream influence tends to be of the high (low)-latitude type. These results are further supported by analysis of intraseasonal NAO events. We separate NAO events into two categories in terms of the intensity of the subtropical PV gradient over Africa. Composites of the NAO events accompanied by a weak (strong) subtropical PV gradient show that the NAO-related downstream wave train tends to propagate along a high (low)-latitude pathway.     

Role of tropical atlantic SST variability as a modulator of El Niño teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).