基于模糊聚类法预报顺德甘蔗产量趋势

利用顺德1981—1990年10年的甘蔗产量数据和气象观测资料,选取降雨量、日照时数、风速等与甘蔗产量相关气象因子进行模糊聚类分析分类,得到5类产量类型:增产(1981)、偏增(1982、1984—1986、1989—1990)、平产(1983)、偏减(1987)、减产(1988)。应用1991年预报年相关气象因子对甘蔗产量试报,结果属于偏增类,与实况一致,表明这种聚类预报方法预报效果良好,可推广使用。     

内蒙古近47年气候变化对春小麦生育期的影响

利用内蒙古地区春小麦主产区的15个农业气象观测站1961—2007年的气象数据,以月平均温度、月降水量、月日照时数作为主要因子,重点分析了内蒙古自治区西、中、东部春小麦区的气象要素的空间分布和时间变化特征。结果表明:随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区春小麦主产区在过去47年中生长季(4—8月)平均气温升高了1.2℃,平均每10年升高0.32℃;生长季降水量年代际间波动不大,但本世纪初全区麦区平均降水量偏少;生长季日照时数呈现出减少的趋势。气候变化使春小麦除成熟期外,其它各生育期基本随年代的增加而提早。     

科尔沁草甸植物繁殖物候研究

运用多元统计方法 ,对 2003年内蒙古科尔沁草甸草场的 41种草甸植物与温度、日照、雨量等环境因子的关系进行了分析。研究表明 :草甸植物繁殖物候期影响最大的气象因子分别为温度、雨量、日照时数 ;运用系统聚类的方法将 41种草甸植物的繁殖物候期进行分类 ,各分为 4种气候类型。     

上高县紫皮大蒜种植气候适宜性区划

基于紫皮大蒜生长周期和当地农业气象条件,得到上高县紫皮大蒜气候适宜性指标：10—11月的最低气温、10月至次年4月的平均气温和平均降水量以及2—4月的累计日照时数。利用1970—2020年宜春市和新余市辖区内共12个地面观测站的气象资料,采用GIS建立上高县紫皮大蒜种植区划因子地理空间分析模型。依据分区等级指标,将上高县划分为最适宜、一般适宜和不适宜3个紫皮大蒜气候种植区。     

气候特点概述

<正>2013年10—12月,江西省总的气候特点是:气温前高后低,降水前少后多,日照时数偏多。主要天气气候事件有:秋季持续少雨,鄱阳湖水域面积为近10 a同期最小;12月出现同期罕见大范围暴雨。1气候概况1.1气温。10—12月全省平均气温为13.9℃,较常年同期平均偏高0.2℃。其中赣北13.6℃,偏高0.4℃;赣中13.6℃,偏高0.1℃;赣南15.0℃,偏低0.2℃。10—12月全省平均气温分别为20.0、14.5、7.2℃,与常年同期相比,10、11月偏高0.5、0.9℃,12月偏低0.8℃。1.2降水。10—12月全省平均降水量为199.8 mm,较常年同期平均偏多9%。各地降水分布不均,赣北大部偏少,赣中、赣南偏多。10—12月全省平均降水量分别为19.1、94.8、85.9 mm,10月偏少70%、11、12月偏多33%、80%。1.3日照。10—12月全省平均日照时数为485.9 h,较常年     

科尔沁草甸植物繁殖物候研究

运用多元统计方法。对2003年内蒙古科尔沁草甸草场的41种草甸植物与温度、日照、雨量等环境因子的关系进行了分析。研究表明：草甸植物繁殖物候期影响最大的气象因子分别为温度、雨量、日照时数；运用系统聚类的方法将41种草甸植物的繁殖物候期进行分类，各分为4种气候类型。     

茂名气候及其生产力变化与粮食产量关系研究

采用茂名山阁气象站1960—2010年气象资料,对气候因子和气候生产力的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:气温和降雨量呈递增趋势,日照时数缓慢递减。气候生产力以21.3 kg/(hm2·a)的速度递增,与各气候因子都具有相关性,其中与年平均气温的相关系数达0.99,明显高于其他因子。粮食单产与同期气候生产力变化趋势相同,各气候因子通过对气候生产力的影响间接影响粮食产量。在气候变暖的大背景下,降雨对气候生产力的增幅并不明显,还需要合理利用水资源才能使茂名的气候优势更稳定。     

马铃薯产量的风险评估及区划研究

以马铃薯主产区乌兰察布盟地区为例，从1961～2000年马铃薯单产波动的相对值着手，以历年减产率指标、减产率变异系数指标、减产率概率指标和综合风险指数指标等为评估标准，结合小网格资源推算的方法，分析了乌兰察布盟地区马铃薯单产的风险分布规律。根据气候相似性原理，利用最优动态聚类方法，给出马铃薯种植的风险区划。同时对影响马铃薯产量波动的风险成因进行分析，指出春、夏季干旱及全年干旱、降水变率大是引起该地区马铃薯产量波动的主要因子。     

5～7月光照对大豆产量的影响分析

利用直线相关分析法，计算5—7月份日照时数与当年大豆单产的相关系数，分析5—7月份日照时数与大豆单产的关系。得出结论是，在没有遭受特大干旱、低温冷害等农业气象灾害时．5—7月份日照时数与当年大豆单产存在明显的相关关系，说明5—7月份日照时数是影响大豆产量的气象因子之一。     

气候特点概述

正2017年10—12月,江西省总的气候特点是:气温略偏高、降水接近常年,日照时数偏少。主要天气气候事件有:10月初出现罕见秋老虎,多地日最高气温创同月新高;11月出现异常持续阴雨寡照天气。1气候概况1.1气温。10—12月全省平均气温14.2℃,较常年同期平均偏高0.4℃。其中赣北13.7℃,偏高0.5℃;赣中14.0℃,偏高0.4℃;赣南15.7℃,偏高0.4℃。10—12月全省     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.