Development of the automatic system of the “Vostochnyi” cosmodrome weather support

A complex system of the operational acquisition, processing, and presentation of meteorological data is developed according to the requirements to cosmodrome weather support. The proposed system allows for the high efficiency of space rocket launches by making prompt decisions based on the information provided by the weather support system.     

Calculating the surface temperature of the solid underlyingsurface by modified “Force-Restore” method

Summary  The calculation of rocky surface temperature encounters the problem of unrealistic results due to its large changes at the interface where the energy balance equation is applied. In order to avoid this, we have modified the “force-restore” method into a self-consistent procedure for simultaneous determination of both surface and the deep ground temperature. The approach is applicable to any celestial body where external radiation can be represented by an arbitrary periodic function. The method is tested with Earth based infrared observation on lunar surface temperature and it showed a high level of accuracy and a rather fast convergence of procedure. Received June 28, 1999/Revised June 19, 2000     

The source area influencing a measurement in the Planetary Boundary Layer: The “footprint” and the “distribution of contact distance”

This paper considers the ground area which affects the properties of fluid parcels observed at a given spot in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). We examine two source-area functions; the footprint, giving the source area for a measurement of vertical flux: and the distribution of contact distance, the distance since a particle observed aloft last made contact with the surface. We explain why the distribution of contact distance extends vastly farther upwind than the footprint, and suggest for the extent of the footprint the inequalities: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOabaeqabaGaamyvam% aalaaabaGaamiAaaqaaiabeo8aZnaaBaaaleaacaWGxbaabeaakiaa% cIcacaWGObGaaiykaaaacqGH8aapcaWG4bGaeyipaWJaamyvaKazaa% iadaGabaqaamaaDaaajqwaacqaaiaadIgacaGGVaGabmOEayaacaGa% aiilaiaabccacaGGVbGaaiiDaiaacIgacaGGLbGaaiOCaiaacEhaca% GGPbGaai4CaiaacwgaaeaacaWGubWaaSbaaKazcaiabaGaamitaaqa% baqcKfaGaiaacIcacaWGObGaaiykaiaabYcacaqGGaGaaeiAaiaabc% cacaGGHbGaaiOyaiaac+gacaGG2bGaaiyzaiaabccacaGGZbGaaiyD% aiaackhacaGGMbGaaiyyaiaacogacaGGLbGaeyOeI0IaaiiBaiaacg% gacaGG5bGaaiyzaiaackhaaaaajqgaacGaay5EaaaakeaaaeaacaGG% 8bGaamyEaiaacYhacqGH8aapcqaHdpWCdaWgaaWcbaGaamODaaqaba% GccaGGOaGaamiAaiaacMcadaWcaaqaaiaadIhaaeaacaWGvbaaaaaa% aa!7877!\[\begin{array}{l} U\frac{h}{{\sigma _W (h)}} < x < U\left\{ {_{h/\dot z,{\rm{ }}otherwise}^{T_L (h){\rm{, h }}above{\rm{ }}surface - layer} } \right. \\ \\ |y| < \sigma _v (h)\frac{x}{U} \\ \end{array}\] where U is the mean streamwise (x) velocity, h is the observation height, _L is the Lagrangian timescale, _v and _w are the standard deviations of the cross-stream horizontal (y) and vertical (z) velocity fluctuations, and is the Lagrangian Similarity prediction for the rate of rise of the centre of gravity of a puff released at ground.Simple analytical solutions for the contact-time and the footprint are derived, by treating the PBL as consisting of two sub-layers. The contact-time solutions agree very well with the predictions of a Lagrangian stochastic model, which we adopt in the absence of measurements as our best estimate of reality, but the footprint solution offers no improvement over the above inequality.     

Long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable 8°C crossing in average daily air temperature in the Volga Federal District

Physical principles are considered of asynchronous long-period relationships between the thermal state of the North Atlantic and the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in spring and autumn in the Volga Federal District. The methodology and the results are discussed of testing the informativeness of the fields of sea surface temperature anomalies for long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in the district.     

30 and 43 months period cycles found in air temperature time series using the Morlet wavelet method

A wavelet-based methodology is applied to relevant climatic indices and air temperature records and allow to detect the existence of unexpected cycles. The scale spectrum shows the presence of two cycles of about 30 and 43 months, respectively, in the air–temperature time series, in addition to the well-known cycles of 1 day and 1 year. The two cycles do not affect the globe uniformly: some regions seem to be more influenced by the period of 30 months (e.g. Europe), while other areas are affected by the period of 43 months (e.g. North-West of the USA). Similar cycles are found in the indices and the regions influenced by these indices: the NAO index and the Western Europe display a cycle of 30 months, while the cycle of 43 months can be found in the ENSO index and in regions where it is known to have an impact.     

Peculiarities of surface air temperature variations over the Far East regions in 1976–2005

Peculiarities are investigated of the air temperature variation tendencies at some stations of the Far East in 1976–2005. The estimate of linear trend equation coefficients is computed according to the air temperature observation data using the least squares method. It is demonstrated that the air temperature trend in northern regions possesses a small probability at small values of residual variability. In the southern regions, the trend significance increases for almost all seasons at small values of residual variability. At midlatitude stations, the trend significance in January and February decreases considerably due to the large values of residual variability.     

Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin—Southern Andes of Ecuador

In the Andes environment, rainfall and temperature can be extremely variable in space and time. The determination of climate variability and climate change needs a special assessment for water management. This paper examines the anomalies of observed monthly rainfall and temperature data from 25 to 16 stations, respectively, from the early 1960s to the 1990s. The stations are located in the Rio Paute Basin in the Ecuador’s Southern Andes. All stations are within the elevation band 1,800 and 4,200?m?a.s.l. and affected by the Tropical Pacific, Amazon, and Tropical Atlantic climate. Anomalies in quantiles were determined for each station and their significance tested. In addition, their correlations with different external climatic influences were studied for anomalies in annual and 3-month seasonal block periods. The results show similar temperature variations for the entire region, which are highly influenced by the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation, especially during the December–February season. During June–August, the correlation is weaker showing the influence of other climate factors. Higher temperature anomalies are found at the high elevation sites while at deep valley sites the anomalies are less significant. Rainfall variations depend, in addition to elevation, on additional factors such as the aspect orientation, slope, and hydrological regime. The highest and most significant rainfall anomalies are found in the eastern sites.     

The distribution of the total ozone values in the end of the polar winter—the key to the forecast of extreme seasons?

The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather type in spring-summer season is concluded.     

The 15‐km version of the Canadian regional forecast system

Abstract

A new mesoscale version of the regional forecast system became operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre on 18 May 2004. The main changes to the regional modelling system include an increase in both the horizontal and vertical resolutions (15‐km horizontal resolution and 58 vertical levels instead of 24‐km resolution and 28 levels) as well as major upgrades to the physics package. The latter consist of a new condensation package, with an improved formulation of the cloudy boundary layer, a new shallow convection scheme based on a Kuo‐type closure, and the Kain and Fritsch deep convection scheme, together with a subgrid‐scale orography parametrization scheme to represent gravity wave drag and low‐level blocking effects. The new forecast system also includes a few changes to the regional data assimilation such as additional radiance data from satellites.

Objective verifications using a series of cases and parallel runs, along with subjective evaluations by CMC meteorologists, indicate significantly improved performance using the new 15‐km resolution forecast system. We can conclude from these verifications that the model exhibits a marked reduction in errors, improved predictability by about 12 hours, better forecasts of precipitation, a significant reduction in the spin‐up time, and a different implicit‐explicit partitioning of precipitation. A number of other features include: sharper precipitation patterns, better representation of trace precipitation, and general improvements of deepening lows and hurricanes. In mountainous regions, several aspects are better represented due to combined higher‐resolution orography and the low‐level blocking term.     

The use of σ T as a temperature scale in the atmospheric surface layer

The standard deviation of temperature _T is proposed as a temperature scale and as a velocity scale to describe the behaviour of turbulent flows in the Atmospheric Surface Layer (ASL), instead of _* andu _* of the Monin—Obukhov similarity theory, and ofT _f andU _f used for free convection stability conditions. On the basis of experimental evidence reported in the literature, it is shown that _T T _f andv _* U _f in the free convection region, and _{T *} andv _* U _* in nearneutral and stable conditions. This implies that the proposed scales can be applied for all stabilities. Furthermore, a new length scale is proposed and its relation with Obukhov length is given. Also, a simple semi-empirical expression is presented with which _T andv _* can be evaluated in a rather simple way. Some examples of practical applications are given, e.g., a stability classification for unstable conditions.     

Compilation method for 1 km grid data of monthly mean air temperature for quantitative assessments of climate change impacts

A new method is proposed to compile 1 km grid data of monthly mean air temperature by dynamically downscaling general circulation model (GCM) data with a regional climate model (RCM). The downscaling method used is a technique referred to as the pseudoglobal warming method to reduce GCM bias. For the grid data, RCM data were corrected with data from an existing meteorological network. The correction model for the RCM bias was developed by stepwise multiple regression analysis using the difference in the monthly mean air temperatures between the observation and RCM output as a dependent variable and the geographical factors as independent variables. Our method corrected the RCM bias from 1.69°C to 0.58°C for the month of August in the 1990s (1990–1999).     

The origin of sub-surface source waters define the sea–air flux of methane in the Mauritanian Upwelling,NW Africa

Concentrations and flux densities of methane were determined during a Lagrangian study of an advective filament in the permanent upwelling region off western Mauritania. Newly upwelled waters were dominated by the presence of North Atlantic Central Water and surface CH₄ concentrations of 2.2 ± 0.3 nmol L⁻¹ were largely in equilibrium with atmospheric values, with surface saturations of 101.7 ± 14%. As the upwelling filament aged and was advected offshore, CH₄ enriched South Atlantic Central Water from intermediate depths of 100–350 m was entrained into the surface mixed layer of the filament following intense mixing associated with the shelf break. Surface saturations increased to 198.9 ± 15% and flux densities increased from a mean value over the shelf of 2.0 ± 1.1 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹ to a maximum of 22.6 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹. Annual CH₄ emissions for this persistent filament were estimated at 0.77 ± 0.64 Gg which equates to a maximum of 0.35% of the global oceanic budget. This raises the known outgassing intensity of this area and highlights the importance of advecting filaments from upwelling waters as efficient vehicles for air-sea exchange.     

Analysis of temperature variability in the mountain regions of the North Caucasus in 1961–2013

Annual and seasonal series of temperature values are analyzed using the data of Akhty, Teberda, and Terskol weather stations (the height above the sea level is >1000 m) for 1961-2013 as well as from 1976 to 2013 in order to reveal changes in the mountain climate in the period of contemporary global warming. Mean values, standard deviations, norms, and anomalies of annual and seasonal values of temperature as well as the rate of their variation in the mentioned periods are obtained. It is found that the temperature rise is observed in all seasons and for the year as a whole at the mountain weather stations except Terskol station. According to the results of studying temperature variability, Akhty and Teberda weather stations were united into the group “mountain weather stations” with the subsequent averaging of climatic variables. Terskol weather station was singled out as an independent high-mountain weather station.     

Trends and uncertainties in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau, 1951–2013

Trends and uncertainties of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are evaluated by using observations at 100 meteorological stations during the period 1951–2013. The sampling error variances of gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box of data. The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate TP averages, their trends, and associated uncertainties. It is shown that large sampling error variances dominate northern and western TP, while small variances appear over southern and eastern TP. Every month from January to December has a positive linear trend during the study period. February has the largest trend of 0.34 ± 0.18°C (10 yr)^–1, and April the smallest at 0.15 ± 0.11°C (10 yr)^–1. The uncertainties decrease steadily with time, implying that they are not large enough to alter the TP warming trend.     

The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Mean annual and monthly averages of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature from seven stations in Iraq were analysed to detect the...     

Effective forecast of Northeast Pacific sea surface temperature based on a complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition–support vector machine method

海洋表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)对气候有着很大影响,但其所具有的非线性、无明显周期、强随机性等特点,给SST预测分析带来了很大的困难。本文将互补集合经验模态分解(complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMD)与支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)相结合来研究对海洋表面温度异常(SSTA)的预报,并从预报准确性、可预报时长、不同起报时间对预报精度影响等方面设计了多组数值实验。实验结果显示CEEMDSVM方法预测12个月SSTA的效果较好,平均绝对误差在0.3°C左右,相关系数达到了0.85,而且试验中未出现春季预报障碍问题。     

Variations of characteristics of the mean atmospheric energy level in the area of the Franz Josef Land archipelago in 1935–2012

Proposed is a method for computing the average temperature of the vertical column of the atmosphere (the temperature of the average energy level) based on some features of energy characteristics of the atmosphere and using the radiosonde data within the mid-troposphere. The modem database is supplemented with the data of radio sounding carried out at Russian upper-air stations in 1934–1959. Variations of average annual values of temperature of the mean atmospheric energy level are observed with the period of several decades and with the amplitude of 4°C in 1935–2012. Intensive decrease in the mean annual values of height-integrated temperature has been registered in recent years. Long-period variations of its average seasonal values of the same nature are registered. They are most pronounced in winter and transition seasons and are significantly reduced in summer. The observed oscillations indicate the existence of disturbance sources of long-term scale that is typical of the evolution of the anomalies of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic. The nature of long-term changes in the temperature of the mean energy level enables to assume the existence of a local attractor in atmospheric changes near the Franz Josef Land archipelago associated with the features of the thermal state of the North European basin and with the ice regime, first of all, in the Barents Sea. The temperature of the mean energy level depends weakly on local greenhouse effects that allows distinguishing natural (nonantropogenic) causes of atmospheric disturbances in a more explicit form.