Assessment of expected damage on buildings subjected to Lorca earthquake through an energy-based seismic index method and nonlinear dynamic response analyses

The city of Lorca (Spain) was hit on May 11th, 2011, by two consecutive earthquakes of magnitudes 4.6 and 5.2 M \(_\mathrm{w}\) , causing casualties and important damage in buildings. Many of the damaged structures were reinforced concrete frames with wide beams. This study quantifies the expected level of damage on this structural type in the case of the Lorca earthquake by means of a seismic index \(I_{v}\) that compares the energy input by the earthquake with the energy absorption/dissipation capacity of the structure. The prototype frames investigated represent structures designed in two time periods (1994–2002 and 2003–2008), in which the applicable codes were different. The influence of the masonry infill walls and the proneness of the frames to concentrate damage in a given story were further investigated through nonlinear dynamic response analyses. It is found that (1) the seismic index method predicts levels of damage that range from moderate/severe to complete collapse; this prediction is consistent with the observed damage; (2) the presence of masonry infill walls makes the structure very prone to damage concentration and reduces the overall seismic capacity of the building; and (3) a proper hierarchy of strength between beams and columns that guarantees the formation of a strong column-weak beam mechanism (as prescribed by seismic codes), as well as the adoption of counter-measures to avoid the negative interaction between non-structural infill walls and the main frame, would have reduced the level of damage from \(I_{v}\) \(\,=\,\) 1 (collapse) to about \(I_{v}\) \(\,=\,\) 0.5 (moderate/severe damage).     

Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.     

Seismic risk and damage prediction: case of the buildings in Constantine city (Algeria)

Located at the North-Eastern part of Algeria (Tellian Atlas), Constantine has crucial administrative, economic, scientific and cultural importance. It has continuously experienced significant urban evolutions during the different periods of its history. The city is located in an active seismic region within Algeria and has been struck in the past by several moderate and strong earthquakes. The strongest earthquake recorded since the beginning of instrumental seismology took place on October 27, 1985 with a magnitude M \(_\mathrm{S}=\) 5.9. Constantine presents a high seismic risk, because of its dense housing and high population density (2,374 inhabitants/km \(^{2})\) . This requires a risk assessment in order to take preventive measures and reduce the losses in case of potential major earthquake. For this purpose, a scenario based approach is considered. The building damage assessment methodology adopted for the Algerian context is adapted from HAZUS approach. In the present case, the effective Algerian seismic code response spectrum (RPA 99/2003) is considered as a seismic hazard model. The prediction of the expected damages is performed for a set of almost 29,000 buildings.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

An Evaluation of Earthquake Hazard Potential for Different Regions in Western Anatolia Using the Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Data

We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.     

On the ability of Moho reflections to affect the ground motion in northeastern Italy: a case study of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

It has been observed that post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho discontinuity could play a relevant role on the ground motion due to medium to strong size earthquakes away from the source. Although some studies investigated the correlation between the Moho reflections amplitudes and the damage in the far field, little attention was given to the frequency content of these specific phases and their scaling with magnitude. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in northern Italy, recorded by velocimetric and accelerometric networks, is here exploited to investigate Moho reflections and multiples (SmSM). A single station method for group velocity-period estimation, based on the multiple filter technique, is applied to strong motion data to detect SmSM. Amplitude and frequency scaling with magnitude is defined for earthquakes from \(\hbox {Mw}=3.9\) to \(\hbox {Mw}=5.9\) . Finally, the ability of SmSM to affect the ground motion for a maximum credible earthquake within the Po plain is investigated by extrapolating observed engineering parameters. Data analysis shows that high amplitude SmSM can be recognized within the Po plain, and at the boundaries between the Po plain and the Alpine chain, at epicentral distances larger than 80 km, in the period range from 0.25 to 3 s and in the group velocity window from about 2.6 to 3.2 km/s. 5 % damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at different periods (0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s), and Housner intensities, are obtained from data characterized by large amplitude SmSM. A scaling relationship for both pseudo-spectral accelerations and Housner intensities is found for the earthquakes of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence. \(\hbox {I}_{\mathrm{MCS}}\) from VII to VIII is estimated, as a result of SmSM amplitude enhancement, at about 100 km for a maximum credible earthquake ( \(\hbox {Mw}=6.7\) ) in the Po plain, showing that moderate to high damage cloud be caused by these specific phases.     

Fragility curves for risk-targeted seismic design maps

Seismic design using maps based on “risk-targeting” would lead to an annual probability of attaining or exceeding a certain damage state that is uniform over an entire territory. These maps are based on convolving seismic hazard curves from a standard probabilistic analysis with the derivative of fragility curves expressing the chance for a code-designed structure to attain or exceed a certain damage state given a level of input motion, e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA). There are few published fragility curves for structures respecting the Eurocodes (ECs, principally EC8 for seismic design) that can be used for the development of risk-targeted design maps for Europe. In this article a set of fragility curves for a regular three-storey reinforced-concrete building designed using EC2 and EC8 for medium ductility and increasing levels of design acceleration \((\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g})\) is developed. These curves show that structures designed using EC8 against PGAs up to about 1 m/s \(^{2}\) have similar fragilities to those that respect only EC2 (although this conclusion may not hold for irregular buildings, other geometries or materials). From these curves, the probability of yielding for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 0.14 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 0.85 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) whereas the probability of collapse for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 1.7 \(\times 10^{-7}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 1.0 \(\times 10^{-5}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) .     

Field evidence and numerical investigation of the \text{ M}_\mathrm{w}= 7.1 October 23 Van, Tabanlı and the \text{ M}_\mathrm{W}> 5.7 November earthquakes of 2011

On Sunday, October 23rd, 2011, the Van province, in the Eastern Turkey, was stricken by a magnitude $\text{ M}_{\mathrm{w}} \!=\! 7.1$ earthquake. The maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration, i.e. 0.182 g, was measured from the seismic station in Muradiye, at about 40 km from the epicenter. Several $\text{ M}_\mathrm{w} > 5.7$ strong motion aftershocks were recorded in November 2011. The exceptionally rich sequence of ground motions was due to the dense seismotectonic activity of the Eastern Turkey, where many active historical faults exist and newly generated can also be found because of the ongoing continental collision between the Arabian and the Eurasian Plates. The 2011 Van earthquake sequence caused 644 casualties, 1966 injuries with 252 rescues; the total economic losses are estimated at around 1 billion US dollars. The present paper deals with the seismological and structural damage assessment of two major seismic events and aftershock sequences in Van region; special emphasis is on the findings of the site investigations performed in the aftermath of the major seismic event. The performed investigation has shown that there is substantial field evidence demonstrating that the losses generated to the local social communities were caused by typical structural and non-structural deficiencies that have been surveyed in the past in several moderate-to-major earthquakes worldwide, especially in poor countries. Comprehensive numerical simulations were also carried out to assess the characteristics of the strong motion records and their effects on existing representative building type of structures in the earthquake-affected region. It was found that the local building stock is highly vulnerable and requires urgent major structural interventions for seismic strengthening. A cost-efficient retrofitting scheme is however not straightforward. It should be a trade-off between two competing aspects: the use of innovative materials and technologies on one hand, and the low-quality of the workmanships and lack of adequate quality control during construction phase, which are available in the Van province, on the other hand.     

Consideration of aging and SSI effects on seismic vulnerability assessment of RC buildings

At present, the seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings is made considering fixed base conditions; moreover, the mechanical properties of the building remain intact in time. In this study we investigate whether these two fundamental hypotheses are sound as aging and soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects might play a crucial role in the seismic fragility analysis of RC structures. Among the various aging processes, we consider the chloride-induced corrosion based on probabilistic modeling of corrosion initiation time and corrosion rate. Different corrosion aspects are considered in the analysis including the loss of reinforcement cross-sectional area, the degradation of concrete cover and the reduction of steel ultimate deformation. SSI is modeled by applying the direct one-step approach, which accounts simultaneously for inertial and kinematic interactions. Two-dimensional incremental dynamic analysis is performed to assess the seismic performance of the initial uncorroded ( \(\hbox {t}=0\) years) and corroded ( \(\hbox {t}=50\) years) RC moment resisting frame structures, having been designed with different seismic code levels. The time-dependent fragility functions are derived in terms of the spectral acceleration at the fundamental mode of the structure \(\hbox {S}_{\mathrm{a}}(\hbox {T}_{1}\) , 5 %) and the outcropping peak ground acceleration for the immediate occupancy and collapse prevention limit states. Results show an overall increase in seismic vulnerability over time due to corrosion highlighting the important influence of deterioration due to aging effects on the structural behavior. Moreover, the consideration of SSI and site effects may significantly alter the expected structural performance leading to higher vulnerability values.     

Scaling Transition in Earthquake Sources: A Possible Link Between Seismic and Laboratory Measurements

We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M _W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M _W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M _W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M _W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M _W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M _W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M _W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.     

Compatible ground-motion prediction equations for damping scaling factors and vertical-to-horizontal spectral amplitude ratios for the broader Europe region

In a companion article Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) present a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating 5 %-damped horizontal pseudo-acceleration spectral (PSA) ordinates for shallow active crustal regions in Europe and the Middle East. This study provides a supplementary viscous damping model to modify 5 %-damped horizontal spectral ordinates of Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) for damping ratios ranging from 1 to 50 %. The paper also presents another damping model for scaling 5 %-damped vertical spectral ordinates that can be estimated from the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratio GMPE that is also developed within the context of this study. For consistency in engineering applications, the horizontal and vertical damping models cover the same damping ratios as noted above. The article concludes by introducing period-dependent correlation coefficients to compute horizontal and vertical conditional mean spectra (Baker in J Struct Eng 137:322–331, 2011). The applicability range of the presented models is the same as of the horizontal GMPE proposed by Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b): as for spectral periods $0.01 \hbox { s}\le \,\hbox {T}\le \,4\hbox { s}$ as well as PGA and PGV for V/H model; and in terms of seismological estimator parameters $4\le \hbox {M}_\mathrm{w} \le 8, \hbox { R} \le 200 \hbox { km}, 150\hbox { m/s}\le \hbox { V}_\mathrm{S30}\le $ 1,200 m/s, for reverse, normal and strike-slip faults. The source-to-site distance measures that can be used in the computations are epicentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{epi})$ , hypocentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{hyp})$ and Joyner–Boore $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{JB})$ distances. The implementation of the proposed GMPEs will facilitate site-specific adjustments of the spectral amplitudes predicted from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe and the Middle East region. They can also help expressing the site-specific design ground motion in several formats. The consistency of the proposed models together with the Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) GMPE may be advantageous for future modifications in the ground-motion definition in Eurocode 8 (CEN in Eurocode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance—part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. European Standard NF EN 1998-1, Brussels, 2004).     

On the seismic response of under-designed caisson foundations

The seismic behaviour of caisson foundations supporting typical bridge piers is analysed with 3D finite elements, with due consideration to soil and interface nonlinearities. Single-degree-of freedom oscillators of varying mass and height, simulating heavily and lightly loaded bridge piers, founded on similar caissons are studied. Four different combinations of the static ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V}$ FS V ) and seismic ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E}$ FS E ) factors of safety are examined: (1) a lightly loaded ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V}= 5$ FS V = 5 ) seismically under-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} < 1$ FS E < 1 ) caisson, (2) a lightly loaded seismically over-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} >1$ FS E > 1 ) caisson, (3) a heavily loaded ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{V} = 2.5$ FS V = 2.5 ) seismically under-designed ( $\text{ FS }_\mathrm{E} < 1$ FS E < 1 ) caisson and (4) a heavily loaded seismically over-designed caisson. The analysis is performed with use of seismic records appropriately modified so that the effective response periods (due to soil-structure-interaction effects) of the studied systems correspond to the same spectral acceleration, thus allowing their inelastic seismic performance to be compared on a fair basis. Key performance measures of the systems are then contrasted, such as: accelerations, displacements, rotations and settlements. It is shown that the performance of the lightly loaded seismically under-designed caisson is advantageous: not only does it reduce significantly the seismic load to the superstructure, but it also produces minimal residual displacements of the foundation. For heavily loaded foundations, however ( $\text{ FS }_{V} = 2.5$ FS V = 2.5 ), the performance of the two systems (over and under designed) is similar.     

Performance of the L’Aquila (central Italy) gas distribution network in the 2009 (\mathrm{{M}}_\mathrm{{w}} 6.3) earthquake

Despite the seismic vulnerability of gas systems and the significance of the direct and indirect consequences that loss functionality might have on large communities, the analysis of the earthquake performance and of post-earthquake management for this kind of distribution networks appears under-represented in the international literature, with respect to other lifeline systems. To contribute on this matter, the study presented comprises an investigation of the impact of L’Aquila 2009 earthquake ( $\text{ M }_\mathrm{w}$ 6.3) on the performance of the local medium- and low-pressure gas distribution networks. The assessment of the physical impact of the earthquake to the buried components of network, namely pipes, valves, and demand nodes, was carried out when processing post-earthquake repair activity reports. Repair data, along with geometrical and constructive features, were collected in a geographic information system linked to the digitized maps of the network, and compared with the interpolated map of recorded transient ground motion, measured in terms of peak ground velocity (i.e., a $Shakemap^\mathrm{TM}$ ). The impact of permanent ground deformation was also investigated and found to be limited in the study area. The resulting observed repair rates (number of repairs per km), presented for different pipeline materials, were compared with repair ratio fragility functions available in literature, showing relatively agreement especially to those for steel pipes, likely also because of the uncertainties in the estimations. Finally, the management of the L’Aquila gas system in the emergency phase and the resilience (functionality recover versus time) of the system was discussed.     

New code site classification, amplification factors and normalized response spectra based on a worldwide ground-motion database

A global dataset of more than 3,000 ground motion records from 536 sites from Greece, Italy, Turkey, USA and Japan is compiled and used to propose code-oriented elastic acceleration response spectra and soil amplification factors for a new site classification system, which, besides the classical geotechnical parameters $N_{SPT}, S_{u}$ and PI, uses also the fundamental period of the site, the thickness of soil deposits and the average shear wave velocity to the seismic bedrock, instead of $V_{s,30}$ . We propose a new classification system with the associated amplification factors and normalized response spectra for two seismicity levels, i.e. $M_{s}\le 5.5$ and $M_{s}>5.5$ . Uncertainties in the estimation of soil amplification factors are captured using a logic-tree approach, which allows the efficient use of alternative models and methods. The aim of this work is to improve the present EC8 soil classification. The effectiveness of the proposed classification system is compared to that of EC8 classification system using an error term, which represents the average dispersion of data within all categories of a given classification scheme. Error terms for the new classification system are lower than the error terms for EC8 classification system at all periods.     

A Crustal Model for the Eastern Alps Region and a New Moho Map in Southeastern Europe

In the last two decades, south-central Europe and the Eastern Alps have been widely explored by many seismic refraction experiments (e.g., CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002, SUDETES 2003). Although quite detailed images are available along linear profiles, a comprehensive, three-dimensional crustal model of the region is still missing. This limitation makes this region a weak spot in continental-wide comprehensive representations of crustal structure. To improve on this situation, we select and collect 37 published active-source seismic lines in this region. After geo-referencing each line, we sample them along vertical profiles—every 50?km or less along the line—and derive P-wave velocities in a stack of homogeneous layers (separated by discontinuities: depth of crystalline basement, top of lower crust, and Moho). We finally merge the information using geostatistical methods, and infer S-wave velocity and density using empirical scaling relations. We present here the resulting crustal model for a region encompassing the Eastern Alps, Dinarides, Pannonian basin, Western Carpathians and Bohemian Massif, covering the region within $45^{\circ}\text{--}51^{\circ}\hbox{N}$ and $11^{\circ} \text{--} 22^{\circ}\hbox{E}$ with a resolution of $0.2^{\circ} \times 0.2^{\circ}.$ We are also able to extend and update the map of Moho depth in a wider region within $35^{\circ}\text{--}51^{\circ}\hbox{N}$ and $12^{\circ}\text{--}45^{\circ}\hbox{E},$ gathering Moho values from the collected seismic lines, other published dataset and using the European plate reference EPcrust as a background. All the digitized profiles and the resulting model are available online.     

Near real-time automatic moment magnitude estimation

In this paper we describe a stable automatic method to estimate in real time the seismic moment, moment magnitude and corner frequency of events recorded by a network comprising broad-band and accelerometer sensors. The procedure produces reliable results even for small-magnitude events $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\approx 3$ . The real-time data arise from both the Transfrontier network at the Alps-Dinarides junction and from the Italian National Accelerometric Network (RAN). The data is pre-processed and the S-wave train identified through the application of an automatic method, which estimates the arrival times based on the hypocenter location, recording site and regional velocity model. The transverse component of motion is used to minimize conversion effects. The source spectrum is obtained by correcting the signals for geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation. Source spectra for both velocity and displacement are computed and, following Andrews (1986), the seismic moment and the first estimate of the corner frequency, $f_{0}$ , derived. The procedure is validated using the recordings of some recent moderate earthquakes (Carnia 2002; Bovec 2004; Parma 2008; Aquila 2009; Macerata 2009; Emilia 2012) and the recordings of some minor events in the SE Alps area for which independent seismic moment and moment magnitude estimates are available. The results obtained with a dataset of 843 events recorded by the Transfrontier and RAN networks show that the procedure is reliable and robust for events with $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\ge 3$ . The estimates of $f_{0}$ are less reliable. The results show a scatter, principally for small events with $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\le 3$ , probably due to site effects and inaccurate locations.     

Reoccurrence formulas for the largest earthquake magnitudes based on the modified cumulative frequency-magnitude relationship

A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.

1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M _T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M _PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P _MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$

The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.     

Observations on the building damages after 19 May 2011 Simav (Turkey) earthquake

An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.7 $(\text{ M}_{\mathrm{L}})$ has struck Simav, Kutahya located in the western part of Turkey on May 19, 2011. The ground motion caused observable damage within 25 km radius from the epicenter. Although the earthquake is moderate, its effects on the structures are serious. This paper presents the observations on seismic damages of reinforced concrete (RC) and masonry structures. Common reasons of damage in RC buildings are: low quality of concrete, detailing mistakes of reinforcement, short column, pounding, overhangs and misconstructed gable and outer infill wall parts. Interesting cases related to these deficiencies are reported. Damages in the masonry buildings are due to lack of connection between orthogonal walls and unsuitable location and dimension of openings. The damages at structures are more noticeable at regions with unfavorable soil conditions like plain regions or foothills. However, on stiffer soils at hilly sides, the damages seem to be more limited and masonry structures are observed to be less affected compared to the RC ones. The damages in RC buildings found to be increasing with story number for light damage states. However, for heavier damage states, 4–5 story buildings are observed to be the most damaged.