北京市服务业碳排放增长的分解分析

The output as well as carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry have increased continuously in Beijing. Therefore, the tertiary industry has become a new field that needs to be explored for energy saving and emission reduction. This paper calculates the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry in Beijing from 2005 to 2012 using the input-output analysis method. The results indicate that both the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions increased continuously and the latter grew more quickly than the former. The growth of the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry was decomposed, which showed that four factors influence the growth of carbon emission of the tertiary industry, including the changes of industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity and carbon coefficient. The results show that the industrial scale advancement and the direct energy carbon coefficient change promote the increase of direct carbon dioxide emissions, while the shift of industrial structure and the change of direct energy consumption intensity have the restrain on it. The industrial scale enlargement, industrial structure shift and the indirect energy carbon emission coefficient change promote the growth of indirect carbon dioxide emissions, while the indirect energy consumption intensity change has a restrain.     

基于AHP模型的北京市服务业循环经济发展水平评价（英文）

本文以北京这个服务业为主导且深受资源环境约束的特大型城市为案例,对其服务业循环经济发展进行评价。从内部子系统(经济发展、资源消耗、废物排放、废弃物循环使用)、外部子系统(产业关联度)以及共生子系统(社会贡献度)三个层面,构建评价服务业循环经济发展水平的指标体系,并基于层次分析法对2000–2013年的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)北京市服务业循环经济发展水平在2000–2008年间呈现出不断提升的趋势,而2009–2013年间出现下降,这主要是由于受2008年国际金融危机的影响,北京市经济产出水平增速下降;(2)内部子系统的变化对北京市服务业循环经济发展的影响较大,经济发展、资源消耗、废物排放及废弃物循环利用指标的综合权重依次为0.367、0.136、0.136、0.075;(3)以产业关联度为代表的外联子系统对北京市服务业循环经济发展水平的影响相对内部子系统较小,综合权重为0.143,说明北京市服务业部门循环经济发展与周边省市,尤其是天津与河北的农业与工业发展有较大的关联度;(4)以服务业就业人数来衡量的共生子系统的综合权重为0.143,说明北京市服务业部门循环经济发展水平的提升可有效促进就业。最后,本文基于上述结果,提出促进北京市服务业循环经济发展的政策建议。     

基于LMDI分解和STIRPAT模型的哈萨克斯坦能源碳排放影响因素的定量分析（英文）

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO_2 emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO_2 emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO_2 emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO_2 emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO_2 emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO_2 emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO_2 emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused –110.90 Mt CO_2 emissions with a contribution rate of –43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in –18.76 Mt CO_2 emissions with a contribution rate of –7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO_2 emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO_2 emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.     

北京市生产性服务业的增长及其空间结构

基于北京1997年投入产出表、2002年投入产出表和第一次经济普查数据,采用投入产出模型、区位商等方法.分析北京市生产性服务业的增长结构变化、对地区经济的影响,以及典型生产性服务业行业的空间结构.研究表明.北京生产性服务业明显呈现出以金融、商务和信息服务业为主的格局;生产性服务业主要为第三产业服务;服务业对金融、商务、信息等生产性服务业的中间需求呈上升趋势;制造业对中间投入服务的消耗层次明显提高,产业结构不断优化升级;生产性服务业既有较强的经济推动能力,又对经济发展的需求较大;北京市生产性服务业的空间结构总体呈现圈层特征.     

影响碳排放的因素研究——基于东盟国家的实证分析（英文）

基于2000–2013年的数据,本文采用VAR模型探讨了东盟国家经济增长、金融发展、城镇化对碳排放的影响。实证结果显示:经济增长与碳排放,金融发展与碳排放之间存在着单向的格兰杰因果关系;经济增长和城镇化将会增加碳排放,而金融发展在初期会减少碳排放,长期对碳排放基本没有影响;经济增长和城镇化对碳排放的预测方差起着重要作用,金融发展解释碳排放的预测方差程度最小。最后,本研究分别从经济增长、金融发展以及城镇化三方面给出改善环境质量的政策建议。     

基于IO-SDA模型的新疆能源消费碳排放影响机理分析（英文）

Analysis of carbon emission mechanism based on regional perspectives is an important research method capable of achieving energy savings and emission reductions.Xinjiang,an important Chinese energy production base,is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development.Ensuring stable socio-economic development while achieving energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets,is the key issue currently facing the region.This paper is based on the input-output theory,and conducts a structural decomposition analysis on the factors affecting energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2007;this analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of "energy- economy- carbon emissions".(1) Xinjiang's carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007;carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources,the mining of mineral resources,and the processing industry.(2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions showed that the change in per capita GDP,the final demand structure,the population scale,and the production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions,while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was the important influencing factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions.This showed that while the sizes of Xinjiang's economy and population were growing,the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and the production technology had not been efficiently improved,resulting in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption.(3) The analysis of the indirect effects of the influencing factors of carbon emission showed that the inter-provincial export,fixed capital formation,and the consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang.(4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon intensive industry sectors,in addition to the growth of inter-provincial exports of energy resource products,makes the transfer effect of inter-provincial "embodied carbon" very significant.     

河北省能源消耗碳排放驱动因素及减排路径分析（英文）

论文分析了河北省二氧化碳的环境库兹涅兹曲线,采用扩展的STIRPAT模型对河北省碳排放驱动因素及减排路径做了深入探讨。研究表明：（1）河北省的产业结构、终端能耗结构与经济增长之间呈复杂的函数关系,其碳排放量与经济增长处于正相关阶段,尚未到达碳排放生态拐点,没有形成EKC曲线,碳排放与经济增长之间的“脱钩”阶段还没有到来;（2）通过碳排放和影响因素之间的定量模型发现,产业结构（第二产业占比）、人均GDP、固定资产投资、人口规模、城镇化率对碳排放贡献最大;改变能源结构使煤炭占比逐年下降,碳减排效果明显;另外,环境规制对碳减排效果明显。（3）建议河北省碳减排重点应围绕控制重工业发展、避免产能过剩、优化产业结构、加速发展清洁能源等方面进行。     

北京市不同功能区不透水地表时空变化差异分析（英文）

Impervious surface(IS) is often recognized as the indicator of urban environmental changes. Numerous research efforts have been devoted to studying its spatio-temporal dynamics and ecological effects, especially for the IS in Beijing metropolitan region. However, most previous studies primarily considered the Beijing metropolitan region as a whole without considering the differences and heterogeneity among the function zones. In this study, the subpixel impervious surface results in Beijing within a time series(1991, 2001, 2005, 2011 and 2015) were extracted by means of the classification and regression tree(CART) model combined with change detection models. Then based on the method of standard deviation ellipse, Lorenz curve, contribution index(CI) and landscape metrics, the spatio-temporal dynamics and variations of IS(1991, 2001, 2011 and 2015) in different function zones and districts were analyzed. It is found that the total area of impervious surface in Beijing increased dramatically during the study period, increasing about 144.18%. The deflection angle of major axis of standard deviation ellipse decreased from 47.15° to 38.82°, indicating the major development axis in Beijing gradually moved from northeast-southwest to north-south. Moreover, the heterogeneity of impervious surface's distribution among 16 districts weakened gradually, but the CI values and landscape metrics in four function zones differed greatly. The urban function extended zone(UFEZ), the main source of the growth of IS in Beijing, had the highest CI values. Its lowest CI value was 1.79 that is still much higher than the highest CI value in other function zones. The core function zone(CFZ), the traditional aggregation zone of impervious surface, had the highest contagion index(CONTAG) values, but it contributed less than UFEZ due to its small area. The CI value of the new urban developed zone(NUDZ) increased rapidly, and it increased from negative to positive and multiplied, becoming animportant contributor to the rise of urban impervious surface. However, the ecological conservation zone(ECZ) had a constant negative contribution all the time, and its CI value decreased gradually. Moreover, the landscape metrics and centroids of impervious surface in different density classes differed greatly. The high-density impervious surface had a more compact configuration and a greater impact on the eco-environment.     

外商直接投资对老挝碳排放的影响研究（英文）

在全球对气候变暖和碳减排日益关注的背景下,研究外商直接投资对碳排放的影响具有重要意义。本文基于1990–2017年的数据,运用Johansen协整检验方法和误差修正模型实证检验了外商直接投资(FDI)对老挝碳排放的影响。实证结果显示:FDI与老挝碳排放具有长期的均衡关系;FDI增长在短期内将会增加老挝的碳排放,FDI与老挝碳排放的关系支持环境库兹涅茨曲线变化,即倒"U"型变化。中国是老挝最重要的外商投资国家,老挝是共建"绿色丝绸之路"的重要节点国家,中国在对老挝当前和未来的投资过程中应进一步加强生态环境保护,提升老挝资源环境承载力。     

基于LMDI的中国特大城市能耗变化量的分解分析（英文）

特大城市的能耗在全国能源系统中扮演着极其重要角色,但其能耗已从生产领域转向城市功能和自身发展方面。因此,本文利用迪氏对数指标分解法对1996-2012年间32个特大城市的能耗变化做因素分解分析,综合考虑城市经济增长、人口规模扩大和空间扩张三方面因素的基础上选取5项指标,计算其对城市能耗的贡献率,分析共性与差异,以更有针对性的开展城市能源管理和节能减排工作。     

基于结构分解法的北京能源碳排放增量分析(英文)

确保减碳的首要任务是定量测度化石能源消费碳排放的增量影响因素及其大小。为分析北京市1997-2007年的碳排放增量,本文构建了一个扩展的(调入、进口)竞争型经济—能源—碳排放投入产出模型,从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面,对1997-2007年北京能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现:经济规模增长要素(消费、投资、调出和出口等)是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素,能源强度变动效应却是碳减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张因素中,消费和调出超过投资和出口,是碳排放增长的主要贡献者;2002以来新一轮"高碳"特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势;产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门,但工业排放的增长却后来居上;碳增排的重点行业是高能耗业,而碳减排的却是能源工业;两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。     

北京市森林康养旅游需求特征研究（英文）

中国的森林康养发展迅速。本文在大健康背景下分析北京市森林康养的市场需求特征,以中青年与中老年两个群体为主的北京市居民作为研究对象,采用定量分析方法,探析北京市居民对当地森林康养的认知、偏好以及对森林康养需求程度及特征,研究结果发现：北京市亚健康人群广泛,对森林康养普遍存在需求,市场潜力大;森林康养需求分为三部分：身心健康需求、森林康养产品需求和森林康养目的地需求;在健康需求上,中青年对于康体解压的需求更为明显,中老年主要集中在免疫力提高、提高睡眠质量和颈椎腰椎疾病的缓解上;在产品需求上,受访者普遍对森林主导型和体验型产品需求较大;在森林康养目的地需求上,整体需求量较高,其中“康养环境质量”、“基础服务设施建设”以及“专业人员及其服务质量”的需求尤为重要。三类需求间存在显著的正相关关系。最后以北京市森林康养需求特征为基础为其旅游产品开发和产业发展提供相关建议。     

北京市水源涵养服务空间格局动态分析（英文）

水资源短缺是制约北京市经济社会可持续发展的关键因素。本研究基于水量平衡方程从市域、主体功能区、重点区县的多个尺度分析北京市水源涵养服务的时空格局,明确北京市不同土地覆被类型的水源涵养量差异,探究水源涵养量时空格局差异的原因。结果表明:(1)与2005年相比,2010年北京市水源涵养量明显增加,但是总体上水源涵养能力较低;(2)北京市各土地覆被类型中,湿地、林地、草地、耕地、裸地、人工表面的平均水源涵养能力依次降低;(3)北京市各主体功能区的平均水源涵养量差异较大,只有生态涵养发展区的平均水源涵养量为正值;(4)北京市生态涵养发展区内各区县的水源涵养功能也存在明显差异,密云区、怀柔区、平谷区的森林水源涵养贡献率最高。北京市水源涵养的时空格局变化是地表覆被和气象条件变化综合影响的结果。本研究对于实现北京市水资源的可持续利用具有重要的借鉴意义。     

北京市城市水循环过程对能源消耗的影响（英文）

Energy is consumed at every stage of the cycle of water production, distribution, end use, and recycled water treatment. Understanding the nexus of energy and water may help to minimize energy and water consumption and reduce environmental emissions. However, the interlinkages between water and energy have not received adequate attention. To address this gap, this paper disaggregates and quantifies the energy consumption of the entire water cycle process in Beijing. The results of this study show that total energy consumption by water production, treatment and distribution, end use, and recycled water reuse amounts to 55.6 billion kWh of electricity in 2015, or about 33% of the total urban energy usage. While water supply amount increased by only 10% from 2005 to 2015, the related energy consumption increased by 215% due to water supply structural change. The Beijing municipal government plans to implement many water saving measures in the area from 2016 to 2020, however, these policies will increase energy consumption by 74 million kWh in Beijing. This study responds to the urgent need for research on the synergies between energy and water. In order to achieve the goal of low-energy water utilization in the future, water and energy should be integrated in planning and management.     

近50年北京市暴雨趋势及其空间差异分析（英文）

在全球气候变暖大背景下,暴雨等极端天气事件频发,引发城市洪涝灾害。研究大城市暴雨的时空变化特征,可以为城市排水设施的设计提供参考,减轻城市洪涝灾害的危害。本文基于1960–2010年北京市20个气象台站的逐日降水量数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、累积距平曲线等方法,分析了北京市暴雨日数和暴雨量的时空变化特征。研究结果表明,北京市暴雨日数下降趋势不显著,但次均暴雨量、年最大日降水量在0.1显著水平上呈显著下降趋势。年均暴雨日数的空间分布由东南向西北递减,东南部平原区是暴雨特别是高强度暴雨的多发区。本文的研究结果对理解北京市暴雨洪涝灾害风险及其空间差异具有重要价值。     

生产性服务业空间集聚对城市生产率的影响（英文）

构建城市生产率评价指数,运用Moran指数和LISA集群图对2008–2018年期间我国286个地级市生产性服务业集聚与城市生产率水平的空间集群效应进行了分析,结果发现我国生产性服务业集聚和城市生产率在空间上高度相关,城市生产性服务业集聚的高值区同样是生产率的高值集聚区,而生产性服务业集聚水平较低的城市其生产率也较低。进一步采用空间计量模型实证检验了生产性服务业集聚对我国城市生产率的作用效应,研究结果显示,生产性服务业集聚能有效提高我国城市生产率,但不同板块城市的生产性服务业集聚对生产率的影响存在较大差异,生产性服务业专业化集聚对东部地区的城市生产率影响效应更大,对中部、东北、西部的影响系数相对较小,生产性服务业多样化集聚对城市生产率的正向效应在西部、中部和东北部地区较为明显,但对东部城市的促进作用较小。     

基于SCS-CN model模型的北京市功能区产流风险分析（英文）

Urbanization significantly increases the risk of urban flooding. Therefore, quantitative study of urban rainfall-runoff processes can provide a scientific basis for urban planning and management. In this paper, the built-up region within the Fifth Ring Road of Beijing was selected as the study area. The details of land cover and urban function zones(UFZs) were identified using GIS and RS methods. On this basis, the SCS-CN model was adopted to analyze the rainfall-runoff risk characteristics of the study area. The results showed that:(1) UFZs within different levels of runoff risk varied under different rainfall conditions. The area ratio of the UFZs with high runoff risk increased from 18.90%(for rainfall return period of 1 a) to 54.74%(for period of 100 a). Specifically, urban commercial areas tended to have the highest runoff risk, while urban greening spaces had the lowest.(2) The spatial characteristics of the runoff risks showed an obvious circular distribution. Spatial cluster areas with high runoff risk were mainly concentrated in the center of the study area, while those with low runoff risk were mainly distributed between the fourth and fifth ring roads. The results indicated that the spatial clustering characteristic of urban runoff risk and runoff heterogeneity among different UFZs should be fully considered during urban rainwater management.     

中国产业结构升级、全要素能源效率与碳排放（英文）

基于2000-2018年全国30个省份（港澳台、西藏除外）的面板数据,利用面板回归模型和中介效应模型分析了产业结构升级、全要素能源效率及碳排放之间的关系和影响机制。研究发现：产业结构高级化在不同区域对碳排放均呈现显著的抑制作用,不同区域的抑制强度呈现“西部>中部>东部”的规律;产业结构合理化在不同区域对碳排放的抑制作用差异较大,在中西部地区表现为显著的抑制作用,但在东部地区抑制作用不显著;各区域全要素能源效率的提升对碳排放的抑制作用均较为显著,抑制强度呈现“西部>东部>中部”的规律。进一步通过中介检验发现,不同区域的全要素能源效率在产业结构升级与碳排放的作用中具有部分和完全中介效应,能够促进和加强产业结构升级对碳排放的抑制作用。因此,研究认为产业结构升级和提升全要素能源效率是促进碳减排的有效手段,但单独依赖产业结构升级的碳减排效果并不理想,需与提升全要素能源效率相结合才会对碳减排起到有效的促进作用。     

普兰县农牧结合潜力分析（英文）

农牧结合是高寒牧区放牧系统的一项重要的实践,具有实现农业和牲畜业可持续生产的重大潜力。然而,目前青藏高原的农牧业分离已经导致集约化农业、草地退化和饲料短缺的问题产生。因此,为探索高山放牧系统中农牧结合的潜力,本研究以中国普兰县为例,基于多数据源,分析了牧草生产潜力和牲畜产量,并从饲草供给角度评估了农牧结合的潜力。结果表明:普兰县可用于人工种草的潜在边际土地约560公顷,基本位于环境条件较好的普兰镇周边。而积温是牧草种植的主要环境限制因子,今后牧草种植应注重品种的抗寒性和生长周期,同时也要注意人工草地建立后的退化和沙化问题。另外,虽然2012–2016年普兰县牲畜数量明显下降,但高寒草地放牧牲畜数量依然高于农牧景观的牲畜放牧数量。该地区目前放牧牲畜数量一般维持在约11万只羊单位,而人工草地和作物秸秆能够提供约1.1万只羊单位的饲料,约占农牧景观中牲畜数量的一半。普兰县农牧结合可以适当补充放牧条件下牲畜饲料的缺额,尤其是在农牧区的普兰镇。本研究结果对未来牧草生产和发展农牧结合具有重要的指导意义。     

中国京津冀地区电力消费与经济增长（英文）

近年来,经济增长与电力消费之间的因果关系受到越来越多的关注。本文利用单位根检验,Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了北京-天津-河北地区1982-2008年期间电力消费与经济增长之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,北京、天津和河北三区的电力消费与经济增长的时间序列都是一阶平稳的。Johansen协整检验的结果表明,在河北和天津,电力消费和经济增长之间存在着协整关系,而在北京,电力消费和经济增长之间则不存在协整关系。我们发现,三个地区均存在着从电力消费到经济增长方向的因果关系,而从经济增长到电力消费方向的因果关系只存在于河北和北京。这意味着,在河北和北京,电力消费的增长将直接影响经济的增长,同时经济增长也将进一步刺激电力消费;但是在天津,电力消费的增加可以直接影响经济的增长,而经济增长则不能影响电力消费。本研究对于发展循环经济和构建资源节约型社会具有重要意义。