基于分形方法的多孔介质有效应力模型研究

在充分分析国内外多孔介质有效应力研究基础上,针对石油工程中深层岩石复杂结构特征,应用分形几何理论,分别建立了深层多孔介质岩石有效应力的二维和三维分形计算模型。该模型能反应任意孔隙结构下的应力作用关系,是现有相关有效应力模型的补充和完善。为了现场应用方便,进一步给出多孔介质有效应力分形模型的简化式。实例计算表明,应用简化式计算的有效应力值误差在7％以内,可以满足油田现场的要求,并且应用简化式有利于应用测井数据获得连续的有效应力剖面。     

降雨和地形地貌对水文模型模拟结果的影响分析

概念性水文模型数量众多,判断模型是否适合研究流域可以通过模拟结果来体现,但是熟悉流域的产汇流特性可以筛选模型,从根源上大量减少工作量,也可以解决相似流域无资料的问题。选取6种概念性水文模型,以马渡王、板桥和志丹这3个半湿润与半干旱流域为研究区域,探讨流域特性与模型结构之间的关系,并通过降雨和地形地貌分析其对模型模拟结果的影响。研究结果表明,流域地形及植被对产汇流过程有重要影响,由于局部产流现象严重,河道坡度影响大于流域平均坡度,当区域气候条件相差不大时,地形地貌比降雨对流域产汇流特性影响更大。因此对于水文模型的选择,可以在熟悉流域产汇流特性的基础上因地制宜,必要时可以增加适合研究流域的模块来获得更好的预报,在半干旱与半湿润流域,同时具有蓄满和超渗机制的模型能得到更好的应用。     

基于高分辨率层序地层学的测井曲线小波分析模型

以高分辨率层序地层学为指导,以中期基准面上升半旋回和下降半旋回为基本的研究单元,建立其理想的层序地层模型和相应的测井曲线模型,通过Morlet小波对测井曲线模型进行分析,建立中期基准面旋回的小波分析模型,分析小波模型对不同基准面旋回的响应特征。然后以由不同样式中期基准面旋回叠加而成的长期基准面上升半旋回、下降半旋回为研究对象,建立其理想的层序地层模型和测井曲线模型,并利用Morlet小波对测井曲线模型进行分析,建立不同样式长期基准面旋回的小波分析模型,分析小波模型对长期基准面旋回及其内部中期基准面旋回单元、旋回界面的响应特征。史134井实例分析表明,不同样式的基准面旋回的小波分析模型能够有效地应用于层序单元及层序界面的识别和划分,对层序地层学的研究起到较好的指导意义。     

土结构性本构模型研究现状综述

土本构模型的建立是一个重要而又复杂的问题,到目前为止,国内外学者们已提出数以百计的土本构模型,诸多文献也对这些模型进行了评述和归纳。然而这些土本构模型多是在扰动土或砂土的基础上发展和建立起来的,它们难以描述由于土结构性引起的各种非线性行为,其计算结果与实际情况相差甚远。天然土体一般都具有一定的结构性,所以有必要建立考虑土结构性影响的土本构模型。针对这个现实,目前有些学者已基于各种理论和方法,提出了一些可以考虑土结构性影响的土本构模型,并得了较好的应用。但在目前的文献中还很少有对土的结构性本构模型研究进行归纳,基于此,本文简要介绍了一下目前土的结构性本构模型研究现状,并提出了这些本构模型在应用中所存在的问题。     

水环境模型与水环境模型库管理

以美国公开发表的92个水环境模型为例,对地表水质模型、地下水质模型和非点源模型的主要功能和使用范围进行了分析。针对水环境模型研究和应用中的问题,提出了利用地理信息系统进行水环境模型库管理的概念,并阐述了建立水环境模型库管理系统的基本思路和方法。     

灌区实时灌溉供水模型研究

研究了灌溉系统供水计算模型.将灌区内作物概化为水稻和旱作物两种,分别以水量平衡原理和土壤水分模拟理论为基础建立稻田和旱作物灌溉供水计算模型.模型中所需要的参数如水文气象、土壤和作物参数均可通过分析历史资料或实测得到.模型系统可进行实时计算操作,并可预测下次灌溉方案,并在取得实测资料后对原预报方案进行实时修正,从而编制实时灌溉方案.模型还可研究灌溉系统内各子系统的优化供水流量和优化轮灌方案.     

The use of landscape evolution models in mining rehabilitation design

Landscape evolution models can be useful tools for the evaluation of rehabilitation designs for post-mining landscapes. When calibrated for the erodible material, landscape evolution models can predict sediment loss over entire landscapes (i.e. tonnes/hectare/year), method of erosion (i.e. slope wash, gullying) and also where on a hillslope erosion is likely to occur. The models provide the ability to examine simple hillslopes through to complex whole landscapes. These models can also be used for a probabilistic risk assessment of rehabilitation design for high-risk situations such as tailings dams. Importantly, unlike other erosion models they allow the eroded landscape to be visualised. This paper outlines the capabilities of the SIBERIA landscape evolution model for the rehabilitation of mining landscapes and proposes a probabilistic approach for risk assessment and site stability.     

Indicator Variogram Models: Do We Have Much Choice?

Many variogram (or covariance) models that are valid—or realizable—models of Gaussian random functions are not realizable indicator variogram (or covariance) models. Unfortunately there is no known necessary and sufficient condition for a function to be the indicator variogram of a random set. Necessary conditions can be easily obtained for the behavior at the origin or at large distance. The power, Gaussian, cubic or cardinal-sine models do not fulfill these conditions and are therefore not realizable. These considerations are illustrated by a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrating nonrealizability over some very simple three-point configurations in two or three dimensions. No definitive result has been obtained about the spherical model. Among the commonly used models for Gaussian variables, only the exponential appears to be a realizable indicator variogram model in all dimensions. It can be associated with a mosaic, a Boolean or a truncated Gaussian random set. In one dimension, the exponential indicator model is closely associated with continuous-time Markov chains, which can also lead to more variogram models such as the damped oscillation model. One-dimensional random sets can also be derived from renewal processes, or mosaic models associated with such processes. This provides an interesting link between the geostatistical formalism, focused mostly on two-point statistics, and the approach of quantitative sedimentologists who compute the probability distribution function of the thickness of different geological facies. The last part of the paper presents three approaches for obtaining new realizable indicator variogram models in three dimensions. One approach consists of combining existing realizable models. Other approaches are based on the formalism of Boolean random sets and truncated Gaussian functions.     

模糊数学在农用地估价因素标准化中的应用研究

应用模糊数学方法的隶属度理论确定隶属函数模型，基于各因素对农用地地价的影响趋势，研究了农用地估价中因素的标准化模型，其分别为直线标准化模型、戒上戒下标准化模型、峰值标准化模型以及概念型模型。对各种标准化模型的变化趋势，参数含义以及适用范围进行了分析，最后以河北省曲周县农用地估价过程中各因素的标准化算法为例对各种模型进行了实践检验。实例证明，在农用地估价过程中，影响因素的标准化引入隶属函数方法，有利于促进农用地地价评估的规范化，从而提高估价成果的科学性。     

东中国海表层悬浮体浓度卫星遥感反演研究进展

用卫星遥感手段反演海洋表层悬浮体浓度(Suspended Sediment Concentration,SSC)来研究其分布和输运的方法已经被广泛使用。东中国海属于水文和光学性质较为复杂的二类水体,表层悬浮体浓度的分布规律和水体的固有光学特性时空变化大,增加了遥感研究的难度。在对前人的研究进行比较和总结后发现,根据实测SSC数据对不同区域、不同时间段(季节、潮汐周期)建立分段模型可以提高整体反演精度。在选择参与反演的波段时,河口和近岸等高SSC海域以及远岸低SSC海域有各自不同的最优波段组合。高SSC海域常使用水体反射率第二反射峰、第一反射峰前波段作正比波段组合参与反演,低SSC海域常使用水体反射率第一峰波段作正比、峰前波段作反比参与反演。同时,在反演模型中考虑泥沙粒径的影响可以显著提升反演精度,并且也有可能在浅海区突破现有遥感研究手段的水深限制。目前模型精度评价标准使用较为混乱,平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差等可以作为综合精度评价指标,模型的稳定性则可以用误差敏感性分析方法验证。高时空分辨率的海色卫星传感器的出现使得海洋短时间尺度事件的研究成为海色遥感研究的趋势之一。     

非饱和带裂隙岩体渗流的特点和概念模型

非饱和带裂隙岩体中的渗流和饱和带相比有其不同的特点,包括毛细管流、薄膜流、优先流和裂隙-基质相互作用等。这些特点导致非饱和带裂隙岩体中的渗流具有相当的非均质性。笔者描述了裂隙岩体中非饱和渗流的这些特点,并简单讨论了目前所存在的模拟非饱和渗流的概念模型。     

Mortar coupling and upscaling of pore-scale models

Pore-scale models are becoming increasingly useful as predictive tools for modeling flow and transport in porous media. These models can accurately represent the 3D pore-structure of real media. Currently first-principles modeling methods are being employed for obtaining qualitative and quantitative behavior. Generally, artificial, simple boundary conditions are imposed on a model that is used as a stand-alone tool for extracting macroscopic parameters. However, realistic boundary conditions, reflecting flow and transport in surrounding media, may be necessary for behavior that occurs over larger length scales or including pore-scale models in a multiscale setting. Here, pore-scale network models are coupled to adjacent media (additional pore-scale or continuum-scale models) using mortars. Mortars are 2D finite-element spaces employed to couple independent subdomains by enforcing continuity of pressure and flux at shared boundary interfaces. While mortars have been used in the past to couple subdomains of different models, physics, and meshes, they are extended here for the first time to pore-scale models. The approach is demonstrated by modeling single-phase flow in coupled pore-scale models, but the methodology can be utilized to model dynamic processes and perform multiscale modeling in 3D continuum simulators for flow and transport.     

Exploration into the causes of uncertainty in UDEC Grain Boundary Models

Considerable research has recently been undertaken to investigate the simulation of brittle fracture mechanisms using distinct element grain boundary models. However, to date, few studies have addressed the limitations of these models when used for predictive analysis. Our research suggests that mesh geometry dependencies can impart irreducible uncertainties into the method despite apparent calibration. In addition, Voronoi meshing routines can limit the kinematic freedom, and increase the degree of interlocking and localized tensile failure; whereas, more recently introduced triangular mesh geometries can have an opposite effect, increasing kinematic freedom, and predisposing models towards shear failure mechanisms.     

湿地生态系统模型研究进展

介绍了湿地生态系统模型概念及类型 ,重点分析了河流湿地、沼泽及河漫滩湿地、湿地退化模型。在河流湿地中 ,重点讨论了水文水动力学模型、泥沙冲淤模型、河流水质模型 ;在沼泽及河漫滩湿地中 ,阐述了水量模型、生物量模型、P模型和 N模型 ;最后在分析湿地退化的数学模型基础上 ,探讨了湿地大型植物的控制模型。     

通风参数计算的灰色建模法

本文根据灰色建模理论,提出灰色模型群建模法。其实质是利用计算机,对一系列预报模型进行比较,输出了个最优模型。文中通风管流参数计算的灰色建模结果令人满意,说明灰色建模理论在实验数据处理中是一个有力工具。     

灵活架构水文模型在不同产流区的应用

对于给定的流域,选择合适的水文模型进行模拟是水文学研究的难点。选取中国11个典型流域,划分为蓄满产流区、超渗产流区及混合产流区,分别验证4种经典概念性模型与4种灵活架构模型。研究表明:蓄满产流区灵活架构模型难以提高模拟精度,但可以检验模型构件对模拟结果的影响,排除不合实际的模型结构;超渗产流区灵活架构模型可以提高模拟精度,但缺乏系统性,难以完整准确地描绘水文过程。综合而言,灵活架构模型表现不稳定,通用性差,但架设与修改方便,易于确定流域产汇流关键过程,是水文模拟的有效手段。     

Assessment of alluvial aquifer heterogeneity and development of stochastic hydrofacies models for the Hat Yai Basin in Southern Thailand

In previous studies, the groundwater flow models formulated for the Hat Yai Basin were conventional and deterministic because the geologic heterogeneity of the alluvial aquifer system in the basin had not yet been assessed. This paper describes an effort to develop hydrofacies models, such that the spatial variability of the aquifer system can be represented in a systematic way. Variogram parameters that characterize the alluvial aquifer heterogeneity were determined. Based on these variogram parameters, an indicator-based geostatistical approach was used to develop hydrofacies models using sequential indicator simulation. The hydrofacies models indicate three distinct aquifer units, namely Hat Yai, Khu Tao, and Kho Hong aquifers, which is in good agreement with a conceptual model, and incorporates spatial variability as observed in field data from borehole logs. The hydrofacies models can be used in groundwater modeling and simulations.     

A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.     

A synthetic study of geophysics-based modelling of groundwater flow in catchments with a buried valley

Groundwater models simulating flow in buried valleys interacting with regional aquifers are often based on hydrogeological models interpreted from dense geophysical datasets and scarce borehole data. For three simple synthetic cases, it is demonstrated that alternative methods of inversion of transient electro-magnetic (TEM) data can lead to very different interpretations of the hydrogeology inside and surrounding a buried valley. The alternative interpreted hydrogeological models are used in numerical modelling of groundwater flow to a pumping well. It is demonstrated that the alternative models result in quite different groundwater-model predictions of capture zone, recharge area, and groundwater age for the pumping well. It is briefly demonstrated that model calibration against hydraulic head data is not likely to improve the predictions or to identify the structural error of the interpreted hydrogeological models. It is therefore concluded that when TEM-based resistivity models are interpreted to construct the hydrogeological framework of a groundwater model, it must be done cautiously with support from deep borehole information. Too much reliance on geophysical mapping can lead to seriously wrong hydrogeological models and correspondingly wrong groundwater-model predictions.     

基于EI-Fatti弹性波阻抗反演的流体识别

通过EI-Fatti弹性波阻抗反演直接得到了纵波阻抗、横波阻抗和密度数据,并以三类AVO模型进行反射系数试算,满足了流体识别对反演精度较高的要求。同时,采用基于EI-Fatti弹性波阻抗的两个流体识别因子对三类AVO模型进行对比分析,表明两种流体识别因子对于不同类型的AVO模型的流体识别效果是不同的。在实际资料中,利用弹性波阻抗反演产生较多弹性参数的优势,将这些弹性参数与储层参数进行交会和相关分析,分别定性和定量地对储层进行流体识别,从而达到了有效区分高饱含气和低饱含气储层的目的。