Estimating the Contributions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Variations in the Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases to Surface Air Temperature Trends from Observations

We have quantitatively estimated the contributions of anthropogenic forcing characterized by variations in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases and of natural variability characterized by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the trends of global surface air temperature from observations since the middle of the nineteenth century on the basis of three-component autoregressive models.     

Estimates of Direct Radiative Forcing Impact on Surface Air Temperature Changes in the Modern Period

Doklady Earth Sciences - Estimates of the contribution of direct radiative forcing (DRF) to the surface air temperature trends over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents for the period...     

中俄原油管道工程(漠河-大庆段)沿线气温、地表和浅层地温年际变化特征

分析了中俄原油管道(漠河-大庆段)沿线自建站至2005年的月平均气温和地温观测资料,并通过插补建立了1961-2005年漠大沿线各站各季及年平均温度资料完整序列.结果表明:各站年平均气温具有很好的相关性,近40多年年平均气温在20世纪60年代最低,70年代略有回升,80年代后气温逐渐升高,进入90年代后期升温有所减缓;沿线各站的年平均地表温度也是20世纪70年代最低,70年代进入80年代升温最明显.气温升温最显著的是冬、春季,升温率分别达到0.71 ℃·(10a)-1和0.48 ℃·(10a)-1,夏季升温率只有0.27 ℃·(10a)-1.年平均气温和地表温度的升温率分别为0.45 ℃·(10a)-1和0.27 ℃·(10a)-1,气温的升温比地表温度要快.年平均地表温度要比年平均气温高,深层地温的变化趋势与气温基本一致,在位相上有1～2 a的差异.     

中俄原油管道工程(漠河大庆段)沿线气温、地表和浅层地温年际变化特征

分析了中俄原油管道(漠河-大庆段)沿线自建站至2005年的月平均气温和地温观测资料,并通过插补建立了1961—2005年漠-大沿线各站各季及年平均温度资料完整序列.结果表明:各站年平均气温具有很好的相关性,近40多年年平均气温在20世纪60年代最低,70年代略有回升,80年代后气温逐渐升高,进入90年代后期升温有所减缓;沿线各站的年平均地表温度也是20世纪70年代最低,70年代进入80年代升温最明显.气温升温最显著的是冬、春季,升温率分别达到0.71℃.(10a)-1和0.48℃.(10a)-1,夏季升温率只有0.27℃.(10a)-1.年平均气温和地表温度的升温率分别为0.45℃.(10a)-1和0.27℃.(10a)-1,气温的升温比地表温度要快.年平均地表温度要比年平均气温高,深层地温的变化趋势与气温基本一致,在位相上有1～2a的差异.     

富生烃凹陷背景下热成因气对水合物成藏的贡献探讨

近年来海域水合物的实际钻探结果显示,当富生烃凹陷具有适宜的水深、温度、压力等地质条件时,浅部沉积物往往是水合物的潜在富集区域。尽管富生烃凹陷具有优异的生排烃潜力,热成因气较为充足,为水合物的形成提供充足的气体来源,但实际调查表明浅部地层中水合物的气体组分和碳同位素更多地表现为微生物成因气或混合成因气的特征,并没有深部热成因气形成的天然气水合物广泛发育的特征。2007年和2015年在我国南海北部陆坡神狐海域白云凹陷进行了两次水合物钻探,与2007年获取的具有微生物成因特征或热成因气贡献非常小的混合成因水合物相比,在2015年钻探中,有钻孔站位的烃类组分测定揭示了较高含量的乙烷和丙烷,从而直接证实了该站位的水合物气源主要是热成因气。白云凹陷内油气钻井地球化学测试分析显示,虽然深部烃类气体受东沙运动的影响存在大规模的逃逸和散失,但部分热成因气仍然可以通过断层、底辟和气烟囱等垂向通道运移至浅部地层之中形成天然气水合物。通过两个钻探区"深部烃源层系—中部运移通道—浅部水合物矿体"三者的垂向耦合对水合物成藏的控制研究,指出通道类型和运移效能的差异可能是导致同一富生烃凹陷背景下的两个水合物矿藏存在差异的主要原因。对于2007年钻探区而言,在深部热成因气沿着效能较低的通道发生自下而上的长距离运移过程中,可能会发生气体组分分异和碳同位素分馏等作用,导致气体的地球化学更多地表现为"微生物成因气"的特征。而在2015年钻探区,由于断裂、底辟构造发育,深部热成因气可以被更有效地输送至水合物成藏沉积地层中,气体组分和同位素没有发生显著的变化。     

南极海冰与温度变化关系的统计分析(英)

Temporal-spatial characteristics of Antarctic surface air temperature and sea ice variations have been statistically analyzed. Results show that, during the last 30 years there was an obvious warming trend in Antarctica, but there exists substantial difference in different sectors and different period. The most significant warming trend occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula, about 2-3 times greater than that in the whole east Antarctica. In recent 20 years the correlation between Antarctic mean temperature and mean sea ice area is low and insignificant, but its linear trends are found to be opposite related in each sector, that is, sea ice extent reductions when temperatures are high. The different climate sectors defined by cluster analysis clearly show a close relationship between two parameters on the inter-seasonal time scale. The most sensitive correlation sectors found are from south Atlantic to southwest Pacific ocean.     

Spatial-temporal Patterns of Land Surface Temperature and Influencing Factors Contribution in Fuzhou City

With the intensification of urbanization and global warming, the problems of urban thermal environment are increasingly prominent. On the basis of the remote sensing, geographic information system, geostatistics and multiscale spatial pattern, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of land surface temperature in urban thermal environment were quantitatively analyzed. The results are as follows: \mathrm{①} Dramatic changes in land use/land cover had occurred from 1993 to 2016 in the study area. The net increase area of construction land was 1 231.04 km², with a change rate of 295.33%. Cultivated land was occupied by construction land. \mathrm{②} The area of middle, sub-high and high temperature zones spread to the surrounding areas gradually with the Minjiang River. The area of sub-low and low temperature zones decreased markedly. \mathrm{③} From 1993 to 2016, the contribution of land surface temperature in different urban districts had the characteristics of uneven spatial and temporal distribution. Meanwhile, there was a positive contribution in the process of land surface temperature rise in Fuzhou while there was a negative contribution in Minqing and Yongtai. Forest/grassland, cultivated land, water body and wetland had a negative contribution during land surface temperature rise while construction land contributed positively. \mathrm{④} According to the multi-distance spatial cluster analysis (Ripley's K function), there was a certain scale in the aggregation and dispersion of land surface temperature, in which the aggregation range and degree of aggregation increased in the study area in 24 years.     

The Relation among Synthetic Fluid Inclusions Homogenization Temperature of Halite,Air Temperature and Water Temperature under Natural Conditions

正A large number of fluid inclusions are formed in the crystal formation of halite,in which pure liquid phase ones supply a new method of paleo temperature inversion by means of cryogenic thermometry.In this study,we     

塔里木盆地和田河气田天然气的特殊来源及非烃组分的成因

本文主要讨论和田河气田天然气的地球化学特征和来源以及非烃气体的可能成因，和田河气田天然气以烃类气体为主，但含有较高的非烃气体，含量一般为10％－25％，乙烷碳同位素值为－37．8‰－34．9‰，说明形成该天然气的母质属于腐泥型，烃类组分，非烃组分分布以及天然气δ13C1值在和田河气田的东、西部存在明显的差异，和田河气田天然气源自寒武系烃源岩，但表现为具有原油二次裂解气的特殊来源特征，东部的玛4井区天然气以原油裂解气为主，西部的玛3、玛8井区则为干酪根裂解气与原油裂解气的混合气，初步分析N2，CO2和H2S的成因，，认为和田河气田天然气的特殊来源是天然气中非烃气体高含量的重要原因。     

Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Coastal Cities of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle.     

Variations of Surface Air Temperature Over the Land Areas in and Around the Bay of Bengal

The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20–40 years period within 1951–1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80--100 ° E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961–1975, 1976–1990 and 1961–1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961–1990, which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037 °C/year). The near equatorial zone, i.e., southern India, Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04 °C/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair, Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4–7 years and 2–3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T >7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Niño events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events.     

Tropical Cyclones and Their Transformation into Extratropical: Estimates of the Half-Century Trends

Doklady Earth Sciences - Results from an analysis of the frequency of tropical cyclones, the probability of their transformation into extratropical cyclones, and their trends in different oceanic...     

Contribution of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors to Changes in the Flow of Large Rivers of the Russian Plain and Siberia

Doklady Earth Sciences - Changes in the annual and seasonal flow of the Volga, Don, Yenisei, and Lena rivers were estimated by two independent methods. One of them is based on the data of water...     

中国气温变化的两个基本模态的诊断和模拟研究

我国地域辽阔,气候复杂多变,在全球变暖的背景下研究中国近百年来的气温变化具有重要的意义。为此我们重建了中国东部71个站1880—2004年四季气温距平序列。通过EOF分析发现了中国气温变化的2种最基本的模态：东部一致变化和关内关外相反变化。这2种模态不随季节变化,而且在不同时期也是稳定的。通过研究这2种模态与变暖趋势的关系发现,20世纪80年代以来的变暖主要是由于第一模态在该时期持续的正位相增强造成的;而20世纪20~40年代的变暖主要是由于第二模态所呈现的正位相所造成的。此外,我们检验了这2种模态在大气环流模式（CAM）中的表现。结果表明：121年（模式中1880—2000年）的集合模拟在一定程度上可以重现第一模态的变化,而第二模态则仅在冬季表现明显。最后,以冬季为例,利用1880—2004年重建及观测的500 hPa高度场资料,通过合成分析进一步研究了这2种模态的环流机制：第一模态正位相对应纬向环流增强,表现在地面气温分布上为东部一致变暖。而负位相则对应东亚大槽加深,东部地区一致变冷。第二模态正位相对应的环流分布则为从东亚北部到阿留申为负距平,东亚到北太平洋中纬度为正距平;对应地面气温分布为关内变暖关外变冷。负位相时环流分布基本相反。这样的环流机制得到了模式研究的支持。     

Geochemical Characteristics and Origin of Natural Gases in the Qaidam Basin, China

Sixty-five natural gas samples were collected from 19 oil-gasfields in the Qaidam basin, China. The chemical composition and carbon isotope values of the samples were measured, and the geochemical characteristics and origin of the natural gases were studied. The gases can be divided into biogenic gases, sapropelic oil-type gases, mixed type oil-type gases, coal-type gases and mixed gas. The δ13Ci values of the biogenic gases are very small and the C2+ contents of them are very low, ranging from -68.2‰ to -61.8‰ and 0.06% to 0.20% respectively. They have heavy δD and δ13Cco2> showing a CC>2 reduction pathway. They are distributed in the East depression region and derived from the Quaternary source rocks. The sapropelic oil-type gases have small δ13C2 values and high C2+ ranging from -36.6‰ to -28.6‰ and from 33.01% to 47.15% respectively. The mixed type oil-type gases have <5I3C2 values and C2+ contents varying from -28.6‰ to -24.8‰ and from 4.81% to 26.06% respectively. Both sapropelic oil-typ     

Comparing the Slaking of Clay-Bearing Rocks Under Laboratory Conditions to Slaking Under Natural Climatic Conditions

The objective of this study was to compare the laboratory slaking behavior of common clay-bearing rocks to their slaking behavior under natural climatic conditions observed during a 1-year experimental study. Five-cycle slake durability tests were performed in the laboratory on five claystones, five mudstones, five siltstones, and five shales. Twelve replicate specimens of each of these 20 rocks were also exposed to natural climatic conditions for 12 months. After each month of exposure, one replicate specimen of each rock was removed from natural exposure and its grain size distribution was determined. The results of laboratory tests and field experiment were compared in terms of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th cycle slake durability indices (Id₁, Id₂, Id₃, Id₄, Id₅), grain size distribution of slaked material, and disintegration ratio (D _R), where D _R is the ratio of the area under the grain size distribution curve of slaked material for a given specimen to the total area encompassing all grain size distribution curves of the specimens tested. Correlations of Id₁, Id₂, Id₃, Id₄, and Id₅ with D _R values for laboratory specimens exhibit R ² values of 0.87, 0.88, 0.83, 0.75, and 0.70, respectively. However, the relationship between Id₂ and D _R, determined after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of natural exposure, becomes weaker with increasing time of exposure, with R ² values of 0.65, 0.63, 0.63, and 0.25, respectively. The fifth-cycle slake durability index (Id₅) for laboratory tested specimens shows a better correlation with D _R values for naturally exposed specimens (R ² up to 0.80). A comparison of grain size distribution curves of slaked material for laboratory specimens, after the 2nd cycle slake durability test, with those of specimens exposed to natural climatic conditions shows that the laboratory test underestimates the field durability for claystones, and overestimates it for siltstones.     

天然气中硫化氢硫同位素组成及沉积地球化学相

四川盆地天然气中普遍含有较高浓度的H₂S。作者在四川各时代气田采集气样近120个，分析了H₂S含量资料、探讨了天然气中H₂S浓度及其硫同位素组成与沉积地球化学相的相关性。研究表明，高硫化氢浓度和高δ₃₄s值均与碳酸盐-蒸发盐岩的分布有直接的成因联系。而与煤系、碎屑岩和非碳盐的海相地层形成的天然气中其硫化氢含量低、δ₃₄s值也低。据此，本文利用硫化氢硫同位素探讨天然气的来源及沉积环境。     

Application of Partial Least Squares Regression in Multimodal Integrated Forecasting of Water Vapor and Surface Air Temperature

The use of a new multi model integration method of Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) can completely eliminate the multicollinearity features to improve multi model’s integrated forecasting results of the humidity and temperature. Based on the four centers’ ensemble forecast results, namely, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the UK Met Office (UKMO), we built a 2012 multi mode (25°~60°N, 60°~150°E) 24 ~168 hours forecast time (interval 24 hours) multi model for humidity and temperature and used the four methods, like ensemble average (BREM) for eliminating the deviation, a simple set of average (EMN), Super Ensemble (SUP) and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) for ground temperature multi model integration. We used the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (cor) to determine the effect of more modes of integration and to predict a short course of cold. The two prediction results showed that the Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) was the best multi model integrated method, more superior than the other three single modes and compared with the other three methods, it showed better prediction performance, which has certain value and application prospect.     

Using Environmental Isotope Method to Study the Air Temperature Variations of the Earth

Using environmental isotopes to study the variations in air temperature is a relatively new method in Vietnam. This is a new and reliable method. Using environmental isotopes to study the temperature variations in the past and predict the future changes is a matter of being interested and applied. This paper used the results of isotope analysis (T, D, 18O, 13C and 14C) to study the change in temperature of the air environment in the past and then projected to 2050. From contents of isotopes, based on the correlation with temperature, water age we could calculate air temperature conditions in the past and predict future changes. Results from the study showed that about 500 years ago to present, air temperature in Red River area continuously rises and amplitude ranges from 0.05 to 0.06 °C /year. By 2030 the average temperature of the air environment will be 23.75 °C, by 2040 would be 24.10 °C and by 2050 is 25.20 °C     

松辽盆地徐家围子断陷深层天然气成因类型及各种成因气贡献

徐家围子断陷深层首次发现以腐泥型气为主的有机成因天然气,不同地区深层天然气成因类型及各种成因气的贡献成为研究重点。采集徐家围子断陷29口井35件深层天然气和26口井33件深层烃源岩样品,采用组分碳同位素和轻烃指纹色谱方法分析天然气和烃源岩样品,实验研究认为深层天然气主要为腐殖型气、腐泥型气、有机深源气3种成因组成的混合气,无机成因烷烃气的贡献较小。首次提出了多种有机成因类型天然气贡献定量测试方法并进行了实验验证,采用天然气甲烷碳同位素、乙烷碳同位素和甲基环己烷指数、环己烷指数、脂烃族参数5个成因类型指标,确定了腐殖型气、腐泥型气、有机深源气的5个成因类型指标端元值,利用天然气的混合配比性建立成因类型指标地球化学模型,采用非线性数学模拟方法建立计算模板,首次定量测试了徐家围子断陷深层天然气样品中3种有机成因气的定量贡献。实验结果表明,徐家围子断陷深层天然气除昌德气藏芳深1井、芳深2井有机深源气贡献为81%外,其他井的腐殖型气、腐泥型气和有机深源气平均贡献分别为62.45%、25.51%、12.02%;不同地区及井段的腐殖型气、腐泥型气和有机深源气贡献有差别,升平—汪家屯地区平均贡献分别为61.63%、20.94%、17.29%,昌德地区平均贡献分别为73.74%、14.48%、11.77%,兴城—徐东地区及断陷中东部平均贡献分别为51.98%、40.99%、7.01%。从断陷北部到中部即从升平—汪家屯、昌德到兴城—徐东地区有机深源气贡献减少、腐泥型气贡献增大,部分井段腐泥型气贡献超过43%且为主要贡献,个别井段腐泥型气贡献最大达74%,与断陷中东部烃源岩Ⅱ型有机质相对发育及断陷地层地质特征相吻合,呈现主要来源于下伏气源岩和天然气藏以垂向运移为主、侧向运移为辅的源岩控型成藏特征。