上海及邻区重磁场的地震地质分析

本文是在完成上海及邻近地区海陆连片的地质和地球物理编图的基础上,对其中的重力和磁力异常图进行地震地质分析和解释,提取与地震活动有关的信息。指出中国南北两大陆块拼合的东部的深部界线位置。提出扬子准地台和华南褶皱系两大构造单元在上海一带的分界线部位。在阐述该区断裂特征和一般规律的基础上论述了一些活动断裂的存在。指出南黄海海域内的两条地震活动带和长江口外的一条隐伏地震活动带。为该区进行地震构造区划和制定抗震防灾措施提供基础资料和科学依据。     

试论上海地震活动与北西地震带的关系

本文从地质构造背景,中强地震迁移和呼应相关,震源机制解和控震、发震机制等方面,探讨了上海地震活动与周围地震带尤其是北西向菏泽—昆山地震带之间的紧密关系,从而对本区、本带未来的强震活动态势作了估计。     

宁波地区地震危险性分析简述

本文论述了宁波盆地附近区域构造的活动性及其对宁波地区地震的影响，并通过对该区历史地震的时空分析划分了潜在震源区，确定了地震活动参数。采用地震点源扩散模型计算了宁波市的地震危险性，得到了地震烈度和峰值加速度的超越概率。从而由地质构造活动性和地震活动性两方面评估了宁波地区的地震危险性。可作为各类工程建设规划参考。     

应用MapGIS构建上海及邻近海域地震与新构造活动关系数据库

基于MapGIS构建上海及邻近海域地震和新构造活动数据库。该数据库由空间和属性两大数据库组成。其中，空间数据库包括地理底图库及地震、活动断裂、新生代盆地、岩浆岩分布多个专题图库；属性数据库主要针对专题图库而建立，有地震属性库、活动断裂属性库及新生代盆地属性库。通过图形数据结构和属性数据结构共有的标识码实现图形数据库和属性数据库之间的连接。为方便查询检索，对重要的属性数据如断裂走向、地震震级等以编码方式表示。该数据库的建立为定量研究和评价本区地震与新构造活动的关系，以及防震减灾提供了重要的科学依据。     

贵州矿山地震活动浅析

从１９７７－１９９１年的１４年间，贵州发生８次矿山地震，涉及矿区１１个，其中煤矿１０个，磷矿１个。此外，还有两次自然构造地震也波及到一些煤矿。本文仅对贵州矿山地震活动，典型震例，矿震特点及破坏特征、矿震成因类型提出一些看法，供有关方面参考。     

对上海市地震基本烈度的商榷意见

上海市的地震基本烈度,按“中国地震目录”和“中国地震烈度区划图”,划为六度区,作者综合分析了本区的地震地质背景、历史地震和近代地震活动的规律、地基土层的特性以及邻区地震可能波及的影响等因素,并考虑到上海市地位的重要性及城市结构特点,建议现定的上海地震基本烈度提高到7度。     

煤矿诱发地震研究

综合分析了煤矿诱发地震的特征、震害、震区地震地质条件、诱震环境条件、成因类型以及成因机制。煤矿矿震是在地壳深部原始高值应力的作用下，由于煤系地层对外力的脆弱性，活动构造牵动的活化及煤矿采掘附加应力等内外因子的协调作用，引起地质构造薄弱面的瞬间激烈运动，或构造塌陷释放应力、应变能的地震效应。     

上海及邻区重磁场的地震地质分析

本文在完成上海及邻近地区海陆连片的地质和地球物理编图的基础上, 对其中的重力和磁力异常图进行地震地质分析和解释。文章指出了中国南北两大陆块拼合的东部深处界线的位置, 并指出了扬子准地台和华南褶皱系两大构造单元在上海一带的分界线的部位。在阐述该区断裂特征和一般规律的基础上论述了一些活动断裂的存在, 为该区进行地震构造区划和制定抗震防灾措施提供了基础资料和科学依据。     

上海地块的地质属性及其地震活动特征

本文根据上海地块的地质演化历史,确认它为外来地体,中生代早中期才汇聚于中国大陆东部。中生代晚期,成为福建—岭南隆起带的一部分,其中局部发育了晚侏罗、白垩纪的断陷盆地,新生代随该隆起带全面下沉,接受沉积。上海地块的地震活动以“频率高、强度低”为特征,地震往往发生在不同方向断裂的交汇处,上海地块上的断裂以 NEE 向和 NNW 向的两组为主,前者具剪切滑移性,后者具压扭性,根据各处发育的断裂规模和地震密度不同,可将上海及其邻区地震划分为四个小区。在一些区内可发生5级以上的较强地震,这是值得人们重视的。     

芦山M_S 7.0地震前地震活动性分析及区域地震活动水平参数I_(RTL)的应用

本文采用Region-Time-Length(RTL)方法分析在汶川M_S 8.0级地震引起的地震活动增强背景下芦山M_S 7.0地震前地震活动性变化,并提出了综合反映区域地震活动水平的参数IRTL。芦山地震前1年在震中和周边地区检测到地震活动平静异常,主要分布在龙门山断裂带南段1.5°N×2°E范围内,持续了近8个月,异常范围和异常程度呈现由小→大→小的特征。新提出的区域地震活动水平参数I_(RTL),早期在0值附近波动,于震前一年开始不断下降,降至波谷后回升到较低值,波谷后9个月发震。I_(RTL)在一定程度上为"识别"芦山地震发生危险性提供了参考。以上研究对了解芦山地震孕育过程提供了新的认识。     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Seismic response analysis of the deep saturated soil deposits in Shanghai

The quaternary deposits in Shanghai are horizontal soil layers of thickness up to about 280 m in the urban area with an annual groundwater table between 0.5 and 0.7 m from the surface. The characteristics of deep saturated deposits may have important influences upon seismic response of the ground in Shanghai. Based on the Biot theory for porous media, the water-saturated soil deposits are modeled as a two-phase porous system consisting of solid and fluid phases, in this paper. A nonlinear constitutive model for predicting the seismic response of the ground is developed to describe the dynamic characters of the deep-saturated soil deposits in Shanghai. Subsequently, the seismic response of a typical site with 280 m deep soil layers, which is subjected to four base excitations (El Centro, Taft, Sunan, and Tangshan earthquakes), is analyzed in terms of an effective stress-based finite element method with the proposed constitutive model. Special emphasis is given to the computed results of accelerations, excess pore-water pressures, and settlements during the seismic excitations. It has been found that the analysis can capture fundamental aspects of the ground response and produce preliminary results for seismic assessment.     

Monitoring of earthquake precursors by multi-parameter stations in Eskisehir region (Turkey)

The objective of this study was to investigate the geochemical and hydrogeological effects of earthquakes on fluids in aquifers, particularly in a seismically active area such as Eskisehir (Turkey) where the Thrace–Eskisehir Fault Zone stretches over the region. The study area is also close to the North Anatolian Fault Zone generating devastating earthquakes such as the ones experienced in 1999, reactivating the Thrace–Eskisehir Fault. In the studied area, Rn and CO₂ gas concentrations, redox potential, electrical conductivity, pH, water level, water temperature, and the climatic parameters were continuously measured in five stations for about a year. Based on the gathered data from the stations, some ambiguous anomalies in geochemical parameters and Rn concentration of groundwater were observed as precursors several days prior to an earthquake. According to the mid-term observations of this study, well-water level changes were found to be a good indicator for seismic estimations in the area, as it comprises naturally filtered anomalies reflecting only the changes due to earthquakes. Also, the results obtained from this study suggest that both the changes in well-water level and gas–water chemistry need to be interpretated together for more accurate estimations. Valid for the studied area, it can be said that shallow earthquakes with epicentral distances of <30 km from the observation stations have more influence on hydrochemical parameters of groundwater and well-water level changes. Although some hydrochemical anomalies were observed in the area, it requires further observations in order to be able to identify them as precursors.     

福建仙游地区高精度地震震源定位及深部断裂特征

福建仙游位于福建省东南沿海中部,其周边地区历史地震活动较平静,属于弱震区。但自从该地区的金钟水库于2010年5月下闸蓄水后,库区附近的地震活动性随之增强。为深入了解该地区的地震活动性、地震分布特征以及寻找隐伏断层,利用中国地震局提供的地震初至震相数据,使用双差定位方法对仙游地区近10年发生的地震进行重定位,获得了更为精确的震源位置,并根据重定位结果模拟深部断裂,寻找隐伏断层。结果显示：(1)重定位后的震源位置更加集中,按照发震时间可分为4个活动区,主要沿沙县—南日岛的次级断裂石苍断裂两侧北西向线性分布。(2)重定位后仙游震群的震源深度主要为8～11 km。石苍断裂左侧地震条带震源深度为6～12 km;右侧地震条带呈现明显的分层现象,上层西北侧地震较为分散,东南侧地震分布较紧凑,震源深度同左侧一样为6～12 km,而下层地震较少,震源深度为14～23 km。(3)根据重定位后的震源位置,利用奇异值分解法拟合得到三个深部断层面,其倾向均为南西向,走向为北西向,与石苍断裂和潼关断裂的倾向和走向一致。结合前人研究成果和本研究结果,推测石苍断裂并不是主发震断层,而是其两侧存在的深部断裂(高倾角隐...     

An overview on the seismic zonation and microzonation studies in India

The present study presents a review on the progressive development of the seismic zonation map of India both from official agencies and also from independent individual studies. The zonation map have been modified and updated regularly with the occurrence of major destructive earthquakes over the years in the Indian subcontinent with the addition of new data. This study discusses the criteria chosen for the progressive zonation and the major earthquakes that were responsible for retrospection of the earlier published maps. The seismic zonation maps of India have also been prepared by various independent workers by adopting different approaches to achieve the purpose of the zonation. Despite the endeavors from various sources to provide a solution for the problem of earthquake hazards in India, there were many limitations on the zonation map as it gives the picture at a regional scale mostly on the bedrock level without addressing the local site conditions. But nevertheless, the seismic zonation map gives basic guidelines for any region to know the hazard scenario and if any city or urban population is under threat from seismic point of view, further site specific seismic microzonation may be carried out. In the International scenario, the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in 1999 prepared a hazard map for world in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, but it turned out to be an underestimation of the hazard parameter when compared with the observed PGA. To tackle the problem of seismic hazards, there was a need to have a detail study on the local site conditions in terms of its geological, geophysical and geotechnical properties. With the advent of better instrumentation and knowledge on the mechanics of earthquakes, it was possible to identify zones of hazards at a local level and this gives rise to the study of seismic microzonation. Seismic microzonation work has been carried out in India in some of the strategic important mega cities and industrial build up that has the potential of being damaged from future earthquakes, as has been shown in the past. Though the microzonation map is not the final output map, as it can still be updated at later stage with more input data, it does provide a more realistic picture on the site specific seismic hazard.     

Source depth as a useful parameter in the discrimination of earthquakes and underground explosions

In order to identify whether observed seismic signals are generated by an underground nuclear explosion or an earthquake, it is adequate to rely on one efficient identifier that provides a reasonably good clue in an unambiguous way. Although it is generally accepted that multi-station, multi-parameter discrimination can provide separation between explosions and earthquakes, it has been observed that cases do arise where signal characteristics cannot be established distinctly and satisfactorily. In the so-called “difficult” cases which are associated with some ambiguity in deducing the nature of the source using single-station seismograms, it is shown in this paper that a reliable estimate of source depth proves extremely useful. Out of the eleven typical examples of “not-easy-to-discriminate” events recorded at the Gauribidanur short-period seismic array in Southern India, seven could be successfully identified as earthquakes and the remaining four as probable underground explosions on the basis of focal-depth estimates from multi-station data.     

Seismotectonics and seismicity of the Silakhor region, Iran

This paper deals with seismotectonic and seismicity of the Silakhor region that shows high seismic activity in western Iran. Silakhor is a vast plain with several villages and cities of Dorud and Borujerd and a small town of Chalanchulan that were destroyed and/or damaged many times by large earthquakes. This paper addresses the historical and instrumental earthquakes and their causative faults, seismotectonic provinces and seismotectonic zones of the region. Available seismic data were normalized by means of time normalization technique that resulted in the magnitude-frequency relation for the Silakhor area and estimation of the return period of earthquakes with different magnitudes. Some active faults in this region include the Dorud fault, the main Zagros thrust, the Galehhatam fault, the Sahneh fault and others. Among them, the Dorud fault is an earthquake fault and is the cause for most of the large and intermediate earthquakes in the region. The return period of large earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.0 (Ms) is very low, however, the occurrence of destructive earthquakes is greater in the region than in the neighboring provinces. The study proves the high seismicity of this zone and it is required to develop an accurate national plan for future building and reinforcement of the existing buildings in this region.     

极震区岩体地震动力破坏若干问题探讨

汶川地震时极震区产生了严重的地震地质灾害,其中强烈地震动造成的岩体动力破坏是造成灾害的根本原因。从极震区含义、地震动特征、岩体地震动力破坏概念、地震松动岩体和方法论等方面初步探讨了极震区岩体地震动力破坏问题。极震区是未来地震的潜在震源区,区内的地震属于直下型。极震区地震动具有不同于非极震区的地震动特征,岩体地震动力破坏的复合性特点就是地震动的不确定性造成的。对极震区岩体动力破坏概念的理解应考虑地震动的特点。地震松动岩体是极震区地震动造成的一种特殊破坏类型,是形成震害次生灾害的重要原因。岩体工程地质力学等学科的思想方法和技术手段为研究极震区岩体地震动力破坏这一命题提供了良好的基础,预测和评价极震区因岩体动力破坏造成的工程震害和地质灾害,减轻和预防未来地震时的灾害损失,是极震区岩体地震动力破坏研究的目标和方向。     

Precursory activity in seismic belts containing the focal region of forthcoming large intraplate earthquake

Seismic activity in the region surrounding the foci is investigated for three severe earthquakes (two with a magnitude of 6.1 and one with a magnitude of 5.3) which have occurred in Japan in recent years. The most conspicuous feature commonly noticed is precursory activation of seismic belts which include the focal regions of main shocks. The repetition of the same pattern in the space-time distribution of earthquake occurrence along the seismic belt is also observed for each case. The precursory activity of seismic belts terminates in rather a short period and, after that, the area around the focus of the forthcoming large earthquake becomes quiescent, which demonstrates the appearance of the seismic gap of the second kind (Mogi, 1979). The periods of seismic quiescence for the cases investigated in this paper are longer than those which are given by the regression relationship between earthquake magnitude and precursor time proposed for example, by Sekiya (1977). However, our definition of anomalous seismic activity is clear, and it is possible to give a physical meaning to it as an increase in the local stress field in the seismic belt. We propose that a kind of coupling between intraplate tectonic blocks, analogous to interplate coupling in the subduction region, is responsible for the formation of the stress field relevant to these earthquakes. Although this is at present only one of the possible viewpoints on the formation of the focal region of large intraplate earthquakes, it may be worthwhile to study various precursory phenomena in-connection with this hypothesis.     

Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes

Despite extensive investigations, no precursor patterns for reliably predicting major earthquakes have thus far been identified. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are highly heterogeneous and low brittle. The progressive cracking of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a landmark earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another landmark earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period. Applying a mechanical model, magnitude constraint conditions, and case study data of 62 worldwide seismic zones, we show that two adjacent landmark earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion point and peak-stress point (rupture) of a locked segment; thus, the former is an identified precursor for the latter. Such a precursor seismicity pattern before the locked-segment rupture has definite physical meanings, and it is universal regardless of the focal depth. Because the evolution of landmark earthquakes follows a deterministic rule described by the model, they are predictable. The results of this study lay a firm physical foundation for reliably predicting the occurrence of future landmark earthquakes in a seismic zone and can greatly improve our understanding of earthquake generation mechanism.