Critical uncertainty parameters influencing seismic performance of bridges using Lasso regression

Recent efforts of regional risk assessment of structures often pose a challenge in dealing with the potentially variable uncertain input parameters. The source of uncertainties can be either epistemic or aleatoric. This article identifies uncertain variables exhibiting strongest influences on the seismic demand of bridge components through various regression techniques such as linear, stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net regressions. The statistical results indicate that Lasso regression is the most effective one in predicting the demand model as it has the lowest mean square error and absolute error. As the sensitivity study identifies more than 1 significant variable, a multiparameter fragility model using Lasso regression is suggested in this paper. The proposed fragility methodology is able to identify the relative impact of each uncertain input variable and level of treatment needed for these variables in the estimation of seismic demand models and fragility curves. Thus, the proposed approach helps bridge owners to spend their resources judiciously (e.g., data collection, field investigations, and censoring) in the generation of a more reliable database for regional risk assessment. This proposed approach can be applicable to other structures.     

Direct displacement‐based seismic assessment procedure for multi‐span reinforced concrete bridges with single‐column piers

In Italy, as in other high seismic risk countries, many bridges, nowadays deemed ‘strategic’ for civil protection interventions after an earthquake, were built without antiseismic criteria, and therefore their seismic assessment is mandatory. Accordingly, the development of a seismic assessment procedure that gives reliable results and, at the same time, is sufficiently simple to be applied on a large population of bridges in a short time is very useful. In this paper, a displacement‐based procedure for the assessment of multi‐span RC bridges, satisfying these requirements and called direct displacement‐based assessment (DDBA), is proposed. Based on the direct displacement‐based design previously developed by Priestley et al., DDBA idealizes the multi DOF bridge structure as an equivalent SDOF system and hence defines a safety factor in terms of displacement. DDBA was applied to hypothetical bridge configurations. The same structures were analyzed also using standard force‐based approach. The reliability of the two methods was checked performing IDA with response spectrum compatible accelerograms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance‐based seismic assessment method for Taiwanese historic Dieh‐Dou timber structures

Lateral force, response spectrum and step‐by‐step pushover analyses are performed and compared with the post‐earthquake survey of two Dieh‐Dou buildings seriously affected in the 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake in Taiwan. The results show that the proposed FE model with finite translational and rotational stiffness can successfully be employed to assess the vulnerability of the frames. The fundamental period of Dieh‐Dou structures is about 1.0 s higher than that calculated by the simplified approach of the codes for regular frames; a modal analysis is, therefore, essential for this typology of structure. The elastic analysis, either lateral force or response spectrum, is shown to be reliable to assess Dieh‐Dou frames when quick results are desired. However, a non‐linear step‐by‐step pushover analysis has the advantage of greater accuracy, as it allows mapping the failure trend and indicating the critical elements. The lateral drifts are compared with the actual observed damage pattern and when the damage level is related to the peak ground acceleration on a vulnerability curve plot, it is shown that the joint failure combined with the lateral drift gives an indication of the global structural behaviour of this historic construction typology. Owing to the unique construction features of the Dieh‐Dou, the joint failure represents also a critical criterion in terms of maximum retention for conservation. Based on a damage level approach, an assessment methodology is suggested that would allow optimizing a strengthening strategy, for protection of these precious structures from future earthquakes while avoiding unnecessary interventions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of intensity‐based demand distributions and the seismic demand hazard for seismic performance assessment

This paper compares the seismic demands obtained from an intensity‐based assessment, as conventionally considered in seismic design guidelines, with the seismic demand hazard. Intensity‐based assessments utilize the distribution of seismic demand from ground motions that have a specific value of some conditioning intensity measure, and the mean of this distribution is conventionally used in design verification. The seismic demand hazard provides the rate of exceedance of various seismic demand values and is obtained by integrating the distribution of seismic demand at multiple intensity levels with the seismic hazard curve. The seismic demand hazard is a more robust metric for quantifying seismic performance, because seismic demands from an intensity‐based assessment: (i) are not unique, with different values obtained using different conditioning intensity measures; and (ii) do not consider the possibility that demand values could be exceeded from different intensity ground motions. Empirical results, for a bridge‐foundation‐soil system, illustrate that the mean seismic demand from an intensity‐based assessment almost always underestimates the demand hazard value for the exceedance rate considered, on average by 17% and with a large variability. Furthermore, modification factors based on approximate theory are found to be unreliable. Adopting the maximum of the mean values from multiple intensity‐based assessments, with different conditional intensity measures, provides a less biased prediction of the seismic demand hazard value, but with still a large variability, and a proportional increase the required number of analyses. For an equivalent number of analyses, direct computation of the seismic demand hazard is a more logical choice and provides additional performance insight. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance‐based seismic assessment of conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings including environmental impact and resilience

Sustainability and resilience are issues that are recognized worldwide, and increased attention should be placed on strategies to design and maintain infrastructure systems that are hazard resilient, damage tolerant, and sustainable. In this paper, a methodology to evaluate the seismic sustainability and resilience of both conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings is presented. Furthermore, the proposed approach is used to explore the difference between the performance associated with these buildings by considering the three pillars of sustainability: economic, social, and environmental. Sustainability and resilience are both considered to cover a comprehensive performance‐based assessment content. The uncertainties associated with performance and consequence evaluation of structural and non‐structural components are incorporated within the assessment process. The proposed performance‐based assessment approach is illustrated on conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings under given seismic scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative non‐linear demand estimation methods for probability‐based seismic assessments

Alternative non‐linear dynamic analysis procedures, using real ground motion records, can be used to make probability‐based seismic assessments. These procedures can be used both to obtain parameter estimates for specific probabilistic assessment criteria such as demand and capacity factored design and also to make direct probabilistic performance assessments using numerical methods. Multiple‐stripe analysis is a non‐linear dynamic analysis method that can be used for performance‐based assessments for a wide range of ground motion intensities and multiple performance objectives from onset of damage through global collapse. Alternatively, the amount of analysis effort needed in the performance assessments can be reduced by performing the structural analyses and estimating the main parameters in the region of ground motion intensity levels of interest. In particular, single‐stripe and double‐stripe analysis can provide local probabilistic demand assessments using minimal number of structural analyses (around 20 to 40). As a case study, the displacement‐based seismic performance of an older reinforced concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, is evaluated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐angle,multi‐damage fragility curves for seismic assessment of bridges

The scope of this study is to investigate the effect of the direction of seismic excitation on the fragility of an already constructed, 99‐m‐long, three‐span highway overpass. First, the investigation is performed at a component level, quantifying the sensitivity of local damage modes of individual bridge components (namely, piers, bearings, abutments, and footings) to the direction of earthquake excitation. The global vulnerability at the system level is then assessed for a given angle of incidence of the earthquake ground motion to provide a single‐angle, multi‐damage probabilistic estimate of the bridge overall performance. A multi‐angle, multi‐damage, vulnerability assessment methodology is then followed, assuming uniform distribution for the angle of incidence of seismic waves with respect to the bridge axis. The above three levels of investigation highlight that the directivity of ground motion excitation may have a significant impact on the fragility of the individual bridge components, which shall not be a priori neglected. Most importantly, depending on the assumptions made for the component to the system level transition, this local sensitivity is often suppressed. It may be therefore necessary, based on the ultimate purpose of the vulnerability or the life cycle analysis, to obtain a comprehensive insight on the multiple damage potential of all individual structural and foundation components under multi‐angle excitation, to quantify the statistical correlation among the distinct damage modes and to identify the components that are both most critical and sensitive to the direction of ground motion and carefully define their limit states which control the predicted bridge fragility. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of residual drift demands in regular multi‐storey frames for performance‐based seismic assessment

This paper summarizes results of a comprehensive analytical study aimed at evaluating the amplitude and heightwise distribution of residual drift demands in multi‐storey moment‐resisting frames after earthquake excitation. For that purpose, a family of 12 one‐bay two‐dimensional generic frame models was subjected to an ensemble of 40 ground motions scaled to different intensities. In this investigation, an inelastic ground motion intensity measure was employed to scale each record, which allowed reducing the record‐to‐record variability in the estimation of residual drift demands. The results were statistically processed in order to evaluate the influence of ground motion intensity, number of stories, period of vibration, frame mechanism, system overstrength, and hysteretic behaviour on central tendency of residual drift demands. In addition, a special emphasis was given to evaluate the uncertainty in the estimation of residual drift demands. Results of incremental dynamic analyses indicate that the amplitude and heightwise distribution of residual drift demands strongly depends on the frame mechanism, the heightwise system structural overstrength and the component hysteretic behaviour. An important conclusion for performance‐based assessment is that the evaluation of residual drift demands involves significantly larger levels of uncertainty (i.e. record‐to‐record variability) than that of maximum drift demands, which suggests that this variability and corresponding uncertainty should be explicitly taken into account when estimating residual drift demands during performance‐based seismic assessment of frame buildings. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of 3D large‐scale earthquake simulations into the assessment of the seismic risk of Bogota,Colombia

Bogotá, the capital city of Colombia, is mostly located on a lacustrine soil deposit surrounded by hills in a central plateau of the eastern cordillera of the Colombian Andes. This highly populated urban area is exposed to a significant seismic hazard from local and regional fault systems. In addition, the potential ground motion amplification during earthquakes due to the presence of soft soil deposits, along with the effects of the surface and subsurface topography, can strongly influence the seismic hazard and consequently the seismic risk to the city. This study aims to develop a physics‐based framework to generate synthetic ground records that can help better understand the seismic response of the basin and other amplification effects during strong earthquake shaking in the region, and to incorporate these effects into the estimation of seismic risk. To this end, a set of simulations were first conducted on Hercules, the wave propagation octree‐based finite element simulator developed by the Quake Group at Carnegie Mellon University, to identify the impacts of hypothetical strong earthquakes scenarios. Then, the results from these simulations were integrated with the exposure and vulnerability information previously developed for the main building constructions in the city to assess the seismic risk in the region under different conditions of analysis. Results from this more detailed model are compared with previously published results from simplified models. Sensitivity analyses help identify critical aspects that should be considered in the future to improve the seismic risk assessment of infrastructure.     

Simulations of non‐stationary frequency content and its importance to seismic assessment of structures

To verify the importance of the non‐stationary frequency characteristic of seismic ground motion, a joint time–frequency analysis technique of time signals, called chirplet‐based signal approximation, is developed to extract the non‐stationary frequency information from the recorded data. The chirplet‐based signal approximation is clear in concept, similar to Fourier Transform in mathematical expressions but with different base functions. Case studies show that the chirplet‐based signal approximation can represent the joint time–frequency variation of seismic ground motion quite well. Both the random models of uniform modulating process and evolutionary process are employed to generate artificial seismic waves. The joint time–frequency modulating function in the random model of evolutionary process is determined by chirplet‐based signal approximation. Finally, non‐linear response analysis of a SODF system and a frame structure is performed based on the generated artificial seismic waves. The results show that the non‐stationary frequency characteristic of seismic ground motion can significantly change the non‐linear response characteristics of structures, particularly when a structure goes into collapse phase under seismic action. It is concluded that non‐stationary frequency characteristic of seismic ground motion should be considered for the assessment of seismic capacity of structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of seismic drift and ductility demands in planar regular X‐braced steel frames

This paper summarizes the results of an extensive study on the inelastic seismic response of X‐braced steel buildings. More than 100 regular multi‐storey tension‐compression X‐braced steel frames are subjected to an ensemble of 30 ordinary (i.e. without near fault effects) ground motions. The records are scaled to different intensities in order to drive the structures to different levels of inelastic deformation. The statistical analysis of the created response databank indicates that the number of stories, period of vibration, brace slenderness ratio and column stiffness strongly influence the amplitude and heightwise distribution of inelastic deformation. Nonlinear regression analysis is employed in order to derive simple formulae which reflect the aforementioned influences and offer a direct estimation of drift and ductility demands. The uncertainty of this estimation due to the record‐to‐record variability is discussed in detail. More specifically, given the strength (or behaviour) reduction factor, the proposed formulae provide reliable estimates of the maximum roof displacement, the maximum interstorey drift ratio and the maximum cyclic ductility of the diagonals along the height of the structure. The strength reduction factor refers to the point of the first buckling of the diagonals in the building and thus, pushover analysis and estimation of the overstrength factor are not required. This design‐oriented feature enables both the rapid seismic assessment of existing structures and the direct deformation‐controlled seismic design of new ones. A comparison of the proposed method with the procedures adopted in current seismic design codes reveals the accuracy and efficiency of the former. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Code‐based record selection methods for seismic performance assessment of buildings

The recent concerns regarding the seismic safety of the existing building stock have highlighted the need for an improvement of current seismic assessment procedures. Alongside with the development of more advanced commercial software tools and computational capacities, nonlinear dynamic analysis is progressively becoming a common and preferable procedure in the seismic assessment of buildings. Besides the complexity associated with the formulation of the mathematical model, major issues arise related with the definition of the seismic action, which can lead to different levels of uncertainty in terms of local and global building response. Aiming to address this issue, a comparative study of different code‐based record selection methods proposed by Eurocode 8, ASCE41‐13 and NZS1170.5:2004 is presented herein. The various methods are employed in the seismic assessment of four steel buildings, designed according to different criteria, and the obtained results are compared and discussed. Special attention is devoted to the influence of the number of real ground motion records selected on the estimation of the mean seismic response and, importantly, to the efficiency that is achieved when an additional selection criteria, based on the control of the spectral mismatch of each individual record with respect to the reference response spectrum, is adopted. The sufficiency of the methods with respect to the pairs of M–R of the selected group of records and the robustness of the scaling procedure are also examined. The paper closes with a study which demonstrates the suitability of a simplified probability‐based approach recently proposed for estimating mean seismic demands. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methodology for preliminary seismic design of extended pile‐shafts for bridge structures

Seismic design of extended pile‐shafts requires a careful consideration of the influence of the surrounding soil on the overall response of the soil–pile system. In this paper, a procedure that incorporates soil properties into the process is developed for preliminary seismic design of extended pile‐shafts. The method follows the well‐accepted approach of using a force reduction factor to determine the lateral strength of the structure. The procedure involves an iterative process to arrive at the required amount of longitudinal reinforcement. Other outcomes of the procedure include the appropriate lateral stiffness and strength, as well as an estimation of the local curvature demand and ultimate drift ratio that can be used to ensure a satisfactory lateral response. The design procedure is capable of providing reliable results for a practical range of structural and soil properties. The versatility of the procedure is illustrated using two numerical examples of extended pile‐shafts constructed in different soil sites. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance‐based earthquake engineering assessment of a self‐centering,post‐tensioned concrete bridge system

Highway bridges in highly seismic regions can sustain considerable residual displacements in their columns following large earthquakes. These residual displacements are an important measure of post‐earthquake functionality, and often determine whether or not a bridge remains usable following an earthquake. In this study, a self‐centering system is considered that makes use of unbonded, post‐tensioned steel tendons to provide a restoring force to bridge columns to mitigate the problem of residual displacements. To evaluate the proposed system, a code‐conforming, case‐study bridge structure is analyzed both with conventional reinforced concrete columns and with self‐centering, post‐tensioned columns using a formalized performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. The PBEE analysis allows for a quantitative comparison of the relative performance of the two systems in terms of engineering parameters such as peak drift ratio as well as more readily understood metrics such as expected repair costs and downtime. The self‐centering column system is found to undergo similar peak displacements to the conventional system, but sustains lower residual displacements under large earthquakes, resulting in similar expected repair costs but significantly lower expected downtimes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intensity measures for probabilistic assessment of non‐structural components acceleration demand

A fundamental issue in the framework of seismic probabilistic risk analysis is the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Based on the floor response spectrum method, the present contribution focuses on the ability of IMs to predict non‐structural components (NSCs) horizontal acceleration demand. A large panel of IMs is examined and a new IM, namely equipment relative average spectral acceleration (E‐ASA_R), is proposed for the purpose of NSCs acceleration demand prediction. The IMs efficiency and sufficiency comparisons are based on (i) the use of a large dataset of recorded earthquake ground motions; (ii) numerical analyses performed on three‐dimensional numerical models, representing actual structural wall and frame buildings; and (iii) systematic statistical analysis of the results. From the comparative study, the herein introduced E‐ASA_R shows high efficiency with respect to the estimation of maximum floor response spectra ordinates. Such efficiency is particularly remarkable in the case of structural wall buildings. Besides, the sufficiency and the simple formulation allowing the use of existing ground motion prediction models make the E‐ASA_R a promising IMs for seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Displacement limits and performance displacement profiles in support of direct displacement‐based seismic assessment of bridges

Displacement limits and performance displacement profiles (PDPs) for the direct displacement‐based assessment of existing bridges are proposed. The PDPs are defined as the bridge inelastic deformed shapes associated with the attainment of selected damage states in some critical elements of the bridge. In the paper, displacement limits are provided for piers, abutments, joints, bearing devices and shear keys. Moreover, different approaches for the definition of the PDP are examined, including adaptive pushover analysis, effective modal analysis, and rational analysis of simplified bridge models. In the paper, the key aspects and modeling assumptions of the proposed direct displacement‐based assessment procedure are presented first. This is followed by some examples of application to typical Italian highway bridge configurations, differing in pier layout, deck type, and pier‐deck connections. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computation of bridge seismic fragility by large‐scale simulation for probabilistic resilience analysis

Seismic resilience of structures and infrastructure systems is a fast developing concept in the field of disaster management, promoting communities that are resistant and quickly recoverable in case of an extreme event. In this contest, probabilistic seismic demand and fragility analyses are two key elements of the seismic resilience assessment in the majority of the proposed methodologies. Several techniques are available to calculate fragility curves for different types of structures. In particular, to assess the seismic performance of the regional transportation infrastructure, methods for the fragility curve estimation for entire classes of bridges are required. These methods usually rely on a set of assumptions, partially because of the limited information. Other assumptions were introduced at the time when computational resources were inadequate for a purely numerical approach and closed‐form solutions were a convenient alternative. For instance, some of these popular assumptions are aimed at simplifying the model of the engineering demand. In this paper, a simulation‐based methodology is proposed, to take advantage of the computational resources widely available today and avoid such assumptions on the demand. The resulting increase in accuracy is estimated on a typical class of bridges (multi‐span simply supported). Most importantly, the quantitative impact of the assumptions is assessed in the context of a life‐cycle loss estimation analysis and resilience analysis. The results show that some assumptions preserve an acceptable level of accuracy, but others introduce a considerable error in the fragility curves and, in turn, in the expected resilience and life‐cycle losses of the structure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring seismic inversion methodologies for non‐stationary geological environments: a benchmark study between deterministic and geostatistical seismic inversion

This paper presents a comparison between subsurface impedance models derived from different deterministic and geostatistical seismic inversion methodologies applied to a challenging synthetic dataset. Geostatistical seismic inversion methodologies nowadays are common place in both industry and academia, contrasting with traditional deterministic seismic inversion methodologies that are becoming less used as part of the geo‐modelling workflow. While the first set of techniques allows the simultaneous inference of the best‐fit inverse model along with the spatial uncertainty of the subsurface elastic property of interest, the second family of inverse methodology has proven results in correctly predicting the subsurface elastic properties of interest with comparatively less computational cost. We present herein the results of a benchmark study performed over a realistic three‐dimensional non‐stationary synthetic dataset in order to assess the performance and convergence of different deterministic and geostatistical seismic inverse methodologies. We also compare and discuss the impact of the inversion parameterisation over the exploration of the model parameter space. The results show that the chosen seismic inversion methodology should always be dependent on the type and quantity of the available data, both seismic and well‐log, and the complexity of the geological environment versus the assumptions behind each inversion technique. The assessment of the model parameter space shows that the initial guess of traditional deterministic seismic inversion methodologies is of high importance since it will determine the location of the best‐fit inverse solution.