Stochastic simulation of regionalized ground motions using wavelet packets and cokriging analysis

Performance‐based earthquake engineering often requires ground‐motion time‐history analyses to be performed, but very often, ground motions are not recorded at the location being analyzed. The present study is among the first attempt to stochastically simulate spatially distributed ground motions over a region using wavelet packets and cokriging analysis. First, we characterize the time and frequency properties of ground motions using the wavelet packet analysis. The spatial cross‐correlations of wavelet packet parameters are determined through geostatistical analysis of regionalized ground‐motion data from the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes. It is observed that the spatial cross‐correlations of wavelet packet parameters are closely related to regional site conditions. Furthermore, using the developed spatial cross‐correlation model and the cokriging technique, wavelet packet parameters at unmeasured locations can be best estimated, and regionalized ground‐motion time histories can be synthesized. Case studies and blind tests using data from the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes demonstrate that the simulated ground motions generally agree well with the actual recorded data. The proposed method can be used to stochastically simulate regionalized ground motions for time‐history analyses of distributed infrastructure and has important applications in regional‐scale hazard analysis and loss estimation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet‐based simulation of spectrum‐compatible aftershock accelerograms

In damage‐based seismic design it is desirable to account for the ability of aftershocks to cause further damage to an already damaged structure due to the main shock. Availability of recorded or simulated aftershock accelerograms is a critical component in the non‐linear time‐history analyses required for this purpose, and simulation of realistic accelerograms is therefore going to be the need of the profession for a long time to come. This paper attempts wavelet‐based simulation of aftershock accelerograms for two scenarios. In the first scenario, recorded main shock and aftershock accelerograms are available along with the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion, and an accelerogram has been simulated for the anticipated aftershock motion such that it incorporates temporal features of the recorded aftershock accelerogram. In the second scenario, a recorded main shock accelerogram is available along with the PSA spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion and PSA spectrum and strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion. Here, the accelerogram for the anticipated aftershock motion has been simulated assuming that temporal features of the main shock accelerogram are replicated in the aftershock accelerograms at the same site. The proposed algorithms have been illustrated with the help of the main shock and aftershock accelerograms recorded for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It has been shown that the proposed algorithm for the second scenario leads to useful results even when the main shock and aftershock accelerograms do not share the same temporal features, as long as strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion is properly estimated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock‐aftershock ground motion sequences

According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock‐aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3‐step procedure to generate main shock‐aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source‐based or site‐based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault‐based or seismicity‐based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design.     

Stochastic model for simulation of near‐fault ground motions

A parameterized stochastic model of near‐fault ground motion in two orthogonal horizontal directions is developed. The major characteristics of recorded near‐fault ground motions are represented. These include near‐fault effects of directivity and fling step; temporal and spectral non‐stationarity; intensity, duration, and frequency content characteristics; directionality of components; and the natural variability of ground motions. Not all near‐fault ground motions contain a forward directivity pulse, even when the conditions for such a pulse are favorable. The proposed model accounts for both pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like cases. The model is fitted to recorded near‐fault ground motions by matching important characteristics, thus generating an ‘observed’ set of model parameters for different earthquake source and site characteristics. A method to generate and post‐process synthetic motions for specified model parameters is also presented. Synthetic ground motion time series are generated using fitted parameter values. They are compared with corresponding recorded motions to validate the proposed model and simulation procedure. The use of synthetic motions in addition to or in place of recorded motions is desirable in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications, particularly when recorded motions are scarce or when they are unavailable for a specified design scenario. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of orthogonal horizontal components of near‐fault ground motion for specified earthquake source and site characteristics

A procedure to generate horizontal pairs of synthetic near‐fault ground motion components for specified earthquake source and site characteristics is presented. Some near‐fault ground motions contain a forward directivity pulse; others do not, even when the conditions for such a pulse are favorable. The proposed procedure generates pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions in appropriate proportions. We use our recent stochastic models of pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like near‐fault ground motions that are formulated in terms of physically meaningful parameters. The parameters of these models are fitted to databases of recorded pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions. Using these empirical “observations,” predictive relations are developed for the model parameters in terms of the earthquake source and site characteristics (type of faulting, earthquake magnitude, depth to top of rupture plane, source‐to‐site distance, site characteristics, and directivity parameters). The correlation coefficients between the model parameters are also estimated. For a given earthquake scenario, the probability of occurrence of a directivity pulse is first computed; pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions are then simulated according to the predicted proportions using the empirical predictive models. The resulting time series are realistic and reproduce important features of recorded near‐fault ground motions, including the natural variability. Moreover, the statistics of their elastic response spectra agree with those of the NGA‐West2 dataset, with the additional feature of distinguishing between pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like cases and between forward and backward directivity scenarios. The synthetic motions can be used in addition to or in place of recorded motions in performance‐based earthquake engineering, particularly when recorded motions are scarce.     

Seismic response analysis using characteristic ground motion records for risk‐based decision‐making (3R method)

The concept of intensity‐based assessment for risk‐based decision‐making is introduced. It is realized by means of the so‐called 3R method (response analysis, record selection and risk‐based decision‐making), which can be used to check the adequacy of design of a new building or of the strengthening of an existing building by performing conventional pushover analysis and dynamic analysis for only a few ground motions, which are termed characteristic ground motions. Because the objective of the method is not a precise assessment of the seismic risk, a simple decision model for risk acceptability can be introduced. The engineer can decide that the reliability of a no‐collapse requirement is sufficient when collapse is observed in the case of less than half of, for example, seven characteristic ground motions. From the theoretical point of view, it is shown that the accuracy of the method is acceptable if the non‐linear response history analyses are performed at a low percentile of limit‐state intensity, which is also proven by means of several examples of multi‐storey reinforced concrete frame buildings. The 3R method represents a compromise between the exclusive use of either pushover analysis or dynamic analysis and can be easily introduced into building codes provided that its applicability is further investigated (e.g. asymmetric structures and other performance objectives) and that the procedure for the selection of characteristic ground motions is automated and readily available to engineers (www.smartengineering.si).     

Assessing adequacy of spectrum‐matched ground motions for response history analysis

Response spectrum matching is commonly used to generate ground motions with response spectra matching a scenario target spectrum. There is some debate in the literature about whether spectrum‐matched motions lead to biased structural analysis results. Furthermore, there are no objective, quantitative criteria available for deciding whether a ground motion has been manipulated excessively by spectrum matching, and whether large modification may also lead to bias. This study investigates both of these issues by presenting the results of structural analysis using two reinforced concrete moment frame models and two earthquake scenarios, with suites of unmatched and matched ground motions. Through comparison with a robust benchmark, it is shown that no significant bias is introduced by spectrum matching. The period range and target damping values for matching are also investigated, and matching up to three times the fundamental period is shown to be beneficial in reducing dispersion in the results. Finally, these analyses were also used to investigate whether large changes in the ground motion lead to biased analysis results. Several potential measures of change are investigated, including those based on peak absolute ground motion, cumulative squared ground motion (absolute or normalized), and input energy into single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems. Although no systematic, statistically significant correlation is found for the analysis results in terms of any of these measures of change, tentative criteria are proposed, which may be used by analysts to aid in the decision of whether to accept or reject a spectrum‐matched motion. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic model and synthesis for near‐fault impulsive ground motions

The orientations of ground motions are paramount when the pulse‐like motions and their unfavorable seismic responses are considered. This paper addresses the stochastic modeling and synthesizing of near‐fault impulsive ground motions with forward directivity effect taking the orientation of the strongest pulses into account. First, a statistical parametric analysis of velocity time histories in the orientation of the strongest pulse with a specified magnitude and various fault distances is performed. A new stochastic model is established consisting of a velocity pulse model with random parameters and a stochastic approach to synthesize high‐frequency velocity time history. The high‐frequency velocity history is achieved by integrating a stochastic high‐frequency accelerogram, which is generated via the modified K‐T spectrum of residual acceleration histories and then modulated by the specific envelope function. Next, the associated parameters of pulse model, envelope function, and power spectral density are estimated by the least‐square fitting. Some chosen parameters in the stochastic model of near‐fault motions based on correlation analysis are regarded as random variables, which are validated to follow the normal or lognormal distribution. Moreover, the number theoretical method is suggested to select efficiently representative points, for generating artificial near‐fault impulsive ground motions with the feature of the strongest pulse, which can be used to the seismic response and reliability analysis of critical structures conveniently. Finally, the simulated ground motions demonstrate that the synthetic ground motions generated by the proposed stochastic model can represent the impulsive characteristic of near‐fault ground motions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures using synthetic ground motions

This study presents a novel approach for evaluating ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures in the context of probabilistic seismic demand analysis. In essence, synthetic ground motions are employed to derive the benchmark seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC), for any structure and response quantity of interest, and to establish the causal relationship between a GMSM procedure and the bias in its resulting estimate of the SDHC. An example is presented to illustrate how GMSM procedures may be evaluated using synthetic motions. To demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach, two significantly different stochastic models for simulating ground motions are considered. By quantifying the bias in any estimate of the SDHC, the proposed approach enables the analyst to rank GMSM procedures in their ability to accurately estimate the SDHC, examine the sufficiency of intensity measures employed in ground motion selection, and assess the significance of the conditioning intensity measure in probabilistic seismic demand analysis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于离散谐小波变换的地震波时变谱估计及非平稳地震波人工合成

采用在频域内具有极好紧支性和盒形特性的谐小波作为母小波,推导了基于离散谐小波变换的地震波时变谱,并给出了不同尺度下能量随时间变化的包络函数的近似解析表达式．文中以Northridge地震波为例分析了时频分布特征．研究发现,对于自振频率为f的结构,其地震反应与输入地震波的时变谱在f 处的时域最大值（即）以及地震波在f 频率点附近的信号分量在时域内的能量集中程度有很大的关系;与db4波基相比,利用谐小波作为母小波的小波变换,其频域具有较好的分辨率,但时域分辨率却较差．最后提出了两种基于离散谐小波逆变换的人工非平稳地震波仿真方法．      

Response‐only modal identification of structures using strong motion data

Dynamic characteristics of structures — viz. natural frequencies, damping ratios, and mode shapes — are central to earthquake‐resistant design. These values identified from field measurements are useful for model validation and health‐monitoring. Most system identification methods require input excitations motions to be measured and the structural response; however, the true input motions are seldom recordable. For example, when soil–structure interaction effects are non‐negligible, neither the free‐field motions nor the recorded responses of the foundations may be assumed as ‘input’. Even in the absence of soil–structure interaction, in many instances, the foundation responses are not recorded (or are recorded with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio). Unfortunately, existing output‐only methods are limited to free vibration data, or weak stationary ambient excitations. However, it is well‐known that the dynamic characteristics of most civil structures are amplitude‐dependent; thus, parameters identified from low‐amplitude responses do not match well with those from strong excitations, which arguably are more pertinent to seismic design. In this study, we present a new identification method through which a structure's dynamic characteristics can be extracted using only seismic response (output) signals. In this method, first, the response signals’ spatial time‐frequency distributions are used for blindly identifying the classical mode shapes and the modal coordinate signals. Second, cross‐relations among the modal coordinates are employed to determine the system's natural frequencies and damping ratios on the premise of linear behavior for the system. We use simulated (but realistic) data to verify the method, and also apply it to a real‐life data set to demonstrate its utility. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Near‐collapse response of existing RC building under severe pulse‐type ground motion using hybrid simulation

Column shear‐axial failure is a complex response, which lends itself to physical experimentation. Reinforced concrete structures built prior to the mid‐1970s are particularly susceptible to such failure. Shear‐axial column failure has been examined and studied at the element level, but current rehabilitation practice equates such a column failure with structural collapse, neglecting the collapse resistance of the full structural system following column failure. This system‐level response can prevent a column failure from leading to progressive collapse of the entire structure. In this study, a hybrid simulation was conducted on a representative pre‐1970s reinforced concrete frame structure under severe seismic ground motion, in which three full‐scale reinforced concrete columns were tested at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign. The analytical portion of the model was represented in the computer program OpenSees. Failure occurred in multiple physical specimens as a result of the ground motion, and the hybrid nature of the test allowed for observation of the system‐level response of the tested columns and the remaining structural system. The behavior of the system accounting for multiple column shear‐axial failure is discussed and characterized. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of nonlinear soil‐MDOF structure systems subjected to distinct frequency‐content components of near‐fault ground motions

This paper is devoted to investigate the effects of near‐fault ground motions on the seismic responses of nonlinear MDOF structures considering soil‐structure interaction (SSI). Attempts are made to take into account the effects of different frequency‐content components of near‐fault records including pulse‐type (PT) and high‐frequency (HF) components via adopting an ensemble of 54 near‐fault ground motions. A deep sensitivity analysis is implemented based on the main parameters of the soil‐structure system. The soil is simulated based on the Cone model concept, and the superstructure is idealized as a nonlinear shear building. The results elucidate that SSI has approximately increasing and mitigating effects on structural responses to the PT and HF components, respectively. Also, a threshold period exists above which the HF component governs the structural responses. As the fundamental period of the structure becomes shorter and structural target ductility reduces, the contribution of the HF component to the structural responses increases, elaborately. Soil flexibility makes the threshold period increase, and the effect of the PT component becomes more significant than the HF one. In the case of soil‐structure system, slenderizing the structure also increases this threshold period and causes the PT component to be dominant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural performance assessment under near‐source pulse‐like ground motions using advanced ground motion intensity measures

This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of utilizing advanced ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to evaluate the seismic performance of a structure subject to near‐source ground motions. Ordinary records are, in addition, utilized to demonstrate the robustness of the advanced IM with respect to record selection and scaling. To perform nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs), ground motions need to be selected; as a result, choosing records that are not representative of the site hazard can alter the seismic performance of structures. The median collapse capacity (in terms of IM), for example, can be systematically dictated by including a few aggressive or benign pulse‐like records into the record set used for analyses. In this paper, the elastic‐based IM such as the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (S_a) or a vector of S_a and epsilon has been demonstrated to be deficient to assess the structural responses subject to pulse‐like motions. Using advanced IMs can be, however, more accurate in terms of probabilistic response prediction. Scaling earthquake records using advanced IMs (e.g. inelastic spectral displacement, S_di, and IM _1I&2E; the latter is for the significant higher‐mode contribution structures) subject to ordinary and/or pulse‐like records is efficient, sufficient, and robust relative to record selection and scaling. As a result, detailed record selection is not necessary, and records with virtually any magnitude, distance, epsilon and pulse period can be selected for NDAs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explicit determination of the pulse inherent in pulse‐like ground motions

A new method is presented for the determination of the parameters of the pulse contained in pulse‐like records. The Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou (M&P) wavelet is used for the mathematical representation of the pulse, but the proposed methodology could be modified to cover other types of wavelets as well. First, the period of the pulse is determined from the peak of the S_d × S_v product spectrum, a new concept that is introduced herein and is defined as the product of the velocity and the displacement response spectra. The remaining parameters of the M&P wavelet are derived from the targeted response spectrum of the ground motion applying a new relationship that is established between the cumulative absolute displacement (CAD) of a wavelet and its peak spectral amplitude. The method follows a well‐defined procedure that can be easily implemented in a computer code for the automatic determination of the pulse parameters of a given ground motion. As an application, the pulses contained in 91 NGA records that have been classified as pulse‐like by Baker are determined. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functional series TARMA modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion

The non‐stationary Functional Series time‐dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA) modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion is considered. Full Functional Series TARMA models, capable of modelling both resonances and antiresonances, are examined for the first time via a novel mixed parametric/non‐parametric estimation scheme, and critical comparisons with pure TAR and recursive ARMA (RARMA)‐recursive maximum likelihood (RML) adaptive filtering type modelling are made. The study is based upon two California ground motion signals: a 1979 El Centro accelerogram and a 1994 Pacoima Dam accelerogram. A systematic analysis, employing various functional subspaces and model orders, leads to two Haar function based models: a TARMA(2,4)₈ model for the El Centro case and a TARMA(6,2)₁₀ model for the Pacoima Dam case. Both models are formally validated and their simulation (synthesis) capabilities are demonstrated via Monte Carlo experiments focusing on important time domain signal characteristics. The Functional Series TAR/TARMA models are shown to achieve parsimony, as well as superior accuracy and simulation capabilities, over their RARMA counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Stability of the time‐domain analysis method including a frequency‐dependent soil–foundation system

A number of methods have been proposed that utilize the time‐domain transformations of frequency‐dependent dynamic impedance functions to perform a time‐history analysis. Though these methods have been available in literature for a number of years, the methods exhibit stability issues depending on how the model parameters are calibrated. In this study, a novel method is proposed with which the stability of a numerical integration scheme combined with time‐domain representation of a frequency‐dependent dynamic impedance function can be evaluated. The method is verified with three independent recursive parameter models. The proposed method is expected to be a useful tool in evaluating the potential stability issue of a time‐domain analysis before running a full‐fledged nonlinear time‐domain analysis of a soil–structure system in which the dynamic impedance of a soil–foundation system is represented with a recursive parameter model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐structure‐specific intensity measure parameters and characteristic period of near‐fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the effects of long‐period pulse of near‐fault ground motions on the structural damage potential. Two sets of near‐fault ground motion records from Chi‐Chi, Taiwan earthquake and Northridge earthquake with and without distinct pulse are selected as the input, and the correlation analysis between 30 non‐structure‐specific intensity measure parameters and maximum inelastic displacements and energy responses (input energy and hysteretic energy) of bilinear single degree of freedom systems are conducted. Based on the frequency characteristic of near‐fault ground motions with remarkable long‐period components, two intensity indices are proposed, namely, the improved effective peak acceleration (IEPA) and improved effective peak velocity (IEPV). In addition a new characteristic period of these ground motions is defined based on IEPA and IEPV. Numerical results illustrate that the intensity measure parameters related to ground acceleration present the best correlation with the seismic responses for rigid systems; the velocity‐related and displacement‐related parameters are better for medium‐frequency systems and flexible systems, respectively. The correlation curves of near‐fault ground motions with velocity pulse differ from those of ground motions without pulse. Moreover, the improved parameters IEPA and IEPV of near‐fault impulsive ground motions enhance the performance of intensity measure of corresponding conventional parameters, i.e. EPA and EPV. The new characteristic period based on IEPA and IEPV can better reflect the frequency content of near‐fault ground motions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.