Flood disaster in Taihu Basin,China: causal chain and policy option analyses

Taihu Lake is at the densely populated region of the eastern coast of China. Taihu Basin is one of the most developed regions of China. The frequency of flood disaster in Taihu Basin has been increasing in the recent years, resulting in more drowned areas and economic loss. It is shown that flood disaster is the most serious problems in Taihu Lake and Taihu Basin. Mitigation of flood problems and return to sustainability has now been given high attention and are prioritized in the Chinese national policies. This paper describes the state of the flood disaster in the Taihu Basin, examines the root causes for flood disaster, demonstrates by examples how these analyses known as transboundary diagnostic analysis can be used to develop policy options that can help predict and reduce the flood disaster based on past and current measures and policy.     

The water quality of Lake Taihu and its protection

Lake Taihu, the third largest fresh water lake of China, with a surface area of 2338 km², is located in the Changjiang River Delta, the most advanced economic zone in China. It is a typical saucer-like shallow lake in its depth and shape. During the last decade, the rapid economic development of local agriculture and industry both in the urban and rural areas of the Taihu region has made great advances. Great quantities of pollutants have been discharged into the lake, its nutrient content has increased continuously, and phytoplankton blooms have occurred in some areas. Water quality protection in Lake Taihu is very important because of its close relation with economic development and people's daily life. It is urgent to have comprehensive pollution control in Lake Taihu. Based on water quality monitoring data in Lake Taihu from 1986 to 1993, the dynamic variations of water quality and eutrophication trends have been analyzed, showing obvious spatial and temporal variations. The main water quality factors were compared with the standards for drinking water and indicate considerable change with the seasons. Basic strategies to protect water quality and prevent eutrophication are discussed.     

长江中下游典型湖泊近代环境变化研究

选择长江中下游的典型湖泊洪湖、巢湖、石臼湖和太湖,采集了沉积柱样,测定了总有机碳、总氮、总磷,并采用210Pb和137Cs定年以研究湖泊近代环境演变。根据洪湖137Cs蓄积峰得到过去50 a里洪湖沉积速率经历了一个由慢到快再变慢的过程,1963~1986年之间沉积速率最大,达0.174 cm/a,这可能是因为当时湖区大规模开垦有关。巢湖钻孔核素的研究发现20世纪70年代以来随着深度的减少,巢湖钻孔中沉积通量在增加,可能与流域内水土流失逐步加重有关。对营养盐的分析表明,洪湖50年代以来沉积物中营养元素急剧增加,巢湖70年代以来营养元素开始增加,在太湖中体现为80年代,石臼湖中则为近百年来营养元素开始快速增加。从营养盐增加的幅度来看,草型湖的洪湖、石臼湖要大于藻型的巢湖以及太湖藻型区域。本文尝试利用总有机碳、总磷获取了湖泊环境变化的速率。研究表明总有机碳和总磷的变化速率存在波动性,这可能与湖泊的自我调节有关。而总有机碳的变化速率在最近时间阶段内基本呈正值,对于洪湖来说在80年代初,石臼湖在1970年左右,太湖在80年代初,巢湖在60年代。总有机碳、总磷变化速率的振荡幅度与周期也许对理解当今湖泊处于何种位置,由此采取何种湖泊管理手段提供重要认识。     

Correlations between algae and water quality: factors driving eutrophication in Lake Taihu, China

Rapid population increase and economic growth in eastern China has lead to the degradation of many water bodies in the region, such as Lake Taihu, the third largest freshwater lake in China. Using data from recent investigations, the correlations between algae (measured as chlorophyll-a) and water quality indices in Lake Taihu were described by multivariate statistical analyses, and the key driving factors for the lake eutrophication were identified by principal component analysis. Results revealed strong spatiotemporal variation in the correlations between algae and water quality indices, suggesting that the limiting factor for the dominant algae growth depends on seasonality and location and it is necessary to reduce both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs for a long-term eutrophication control in this hyper-eutrophic system. Water temperature was another important controlling factor for algal growth in the lake. Using principal component analysis, nutrient contaminations from anthropogenic and natural inputs were identified as the key driving factor for the water quality problems of the lake. Moreover, five principal components were extracted and characterized with high spatial and seasonal variations in Lake Taihu. The key driving factors were believed to influence spatial variations including heavily polluted areas located in the northern and northwestern parts of the lake, where many manufacturing factories were built and wastewater from domestic and industrial plants was discharged. Based on this analysis, attention should be paid to effective land management, industrial wastewater treatment, and macrophytic vegetation restoration to reduce the pollutant loads and improve water quality. Principal component analysis was found to be a useful and effective method to reduce the number of analytical parameters without notably impairing the quality of information in this study.     

长江三角洲地区环境演变与环境考古学研究进展

综合分析了20世纪80年代以来长江三角洲地区环境演变与环境考古学研究进展,着重对长江三角洲地区太湖的形成与演变、全新世海侵与海面变化、史前环境的重建以及文化断层成因等方面进行了综述,并指出今后该区环境考古研究的主要内容,包括多学科交叉方法的运用和各种环境代用指标的相互印证、高分辨率研究、考古地层剖面与自然地层剖面的对比、古环境演变的定量研究以及环境质量时空演变特征研究等。     

太湖富营养化与蓝藻水华引起的饮用水危机——原因与对策

[ZW（*][HT6H]〓收稿日期：. 〓作者简介：[HT6SS]（1963 ）,男,江苏苏州人,研究员,主要从事水环境研究.[WT6HZ]E mail:[WT6BZ]qinbq@niglas.ac.cn[ZW)] [HT4F][HT5K]()[JZ）] [HT5H][GK2] 摘〓要：[HT5K]2007年5月份发生在无锡太湖蓝藻水华引起的自来水危机事件进一步凸现我国湖泊富营养化的严峻局面和蓝藻水华频发的现状。从分析太湖富营养化发生、发展,蓝藻水华爆发的原因和机制入手,提出湖泊富营养化治理和蓝藻水华控制的途径和措施。研究表明,太湖富营养化之所以如此严重而且治理起来异常艰难,主要是由于太湖发育于长江中下游洪泛平原,营养本底高;由于水浅和沉水植被的退化使得频繁的风浪扰动造成内源营养盐负荷维持在一个非常高的水平;而流域内社会经济的高速发展,进一步加剧了太湖富营养化进程。蓝藻水华爆发一方面与蓝藻本身的生理特征有关,如固碳、伪空泡、光吸收及营养盐利用的能力;另一方面则与系统内物理、化学、生物环境有关,如独特的浅水湖泊水下光场结构和低的捕食压力。太湖的富营养化治理需遵循控源截污、湖泊生态修复和流域管理的原则,具体措施包括前置库和人工湿地的面源污染物控制技术;物理机械和生物去除内源营养盐削减技术;沉水植被恢复的湖泊生态修复技术。而蓝藻水华的控制技术则包括围隔拦截和导流的物理工程方法、絮凝沉降和抑藻物添加的化学工程方法以及生态浮床和生物操纵的生态工程方法。具体使用时,需要先诊断、后治理。       

Spatial–temporal characteristics of surface water quality in the Taihu Basin,China

Taihu Basin is one of the most developed and industrialized regions in China. In the last two decades, rapid development of economy as well as an increase in population has resulted in an increase of pollutants produced and discharged into rivers and lakes. Much more attention has been paid on the serious water pollution problems due to high frequency of algal blooming. The dataset, obtained during the period 2001–2002 from the Water Resources Protection Bureau of the Taihu Basin, consisted of eight physicochemical variables surveyed monthly at 22 sampling sites in the Taihu Basin, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify the characteristics of the surface water quality in the studied area. The temporal and spatial variations of water quality were also evaluated by using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method. PCA extracted the first two principal components (PCs), explaining 86.18% of the total variance of the raw data. Especially, PC1 (73.72%) had strong positive correlation with DO, and was negatively associated with COD_Mn, COD, BOD, NH₄ ⁺–N, TP and TN. PC2 (12.46%) was characterized by pH. CA showed that most sites were highly polluted by industrial and domestic wastewater which contributed significantly to PC1. The sites located in the west of Lake Taihu were influenced by farmland runoff which may contribute to nitrogen pollution of Lake Taihu, whereas the monitoring sites in the eastern of Lake Taihu demonstrated that urban residential subsistence and domestic wastewater are the major contaminants. FSE indicates that there is no obvious variance between 2001 and 2002 among most sites. Only several sites free from point-source pollution appear to exhibit good water quality through the studied period.     

太湖生态环境演化及其原因分析

太湖地处长江下游三角洲,水域面积为2338km²,平均水深1.9m,最大水深不足2.6m,为一典型的大型浅水湖泊。太湖流域地势平坦,河网密布,河湖水力关系复杂。其主要补给径流来自西南部的天目山区及西部的宜溧河流域。每年夏天,大部分入湖洪水通过位于东太湖的太浦河及东北部的望虞河分别排入黄浦江与长江,由于出入湖河道的特殊位置,使得太湖南部的换水周期较短而北部较长。近几十年来,太湖由于污染而逐步呈现富营养化特征,污染物主要来自北部的无锡市和常州市,通过河道排入太湖北部的五里湖与梅梁湾,因此上述两地的水质较南部差。在东太湖,水产养殖对水环境的影响很大,亦呈现出富营养化特征,并殃及该地区的供水,加之该地区为太湖主要的泄洪通道,因此泥沙淤积严重,而且水生植物生长旺盛,呈现出明显的沼泽化趋势;在太湖四周地区,由于湖泊围垦和水利工程建设,其污染净化能力将降低,从而加速水环境恶化的趋势。太湖所面临这些问题,有待于强化湖泊科学管理来解决。     

太湖湖体总氮平衡及水质可控目标

通过对2007~2010年环太湖水文巡测及降水调查,进行了湖体总氮平衡分析,在充分调查现有与规划的各类型污染源总量控制工程措施的基础上,量化出具有空间分布的流域总氮污染削减率,利用构建的太湖流域及湖体水环境数学模型模拟污染削减后的太湖湖体总氮浓度场,并提出水质可控目标。结果表明:太湖出入水量共127.8亿 m3,其中通过降水进入太湖的水量为24.9亿 m3,占入湖总水量的19.5%;全年总氮收支量达到4.47万t,其中通过干湿沉降进入太湖的总氮量为0.70万t,占入湖总通量的15.5%,可见干湿沉降进入太湖的污染物不容忽视,其变化趋势与太湖地区降水特征相关性较好。同时通过模型推算,定出2015年太湖湖体不同功能区总氮的可控目标,整个湖体平均值约为2.3 mg/L,为太湖总量控制提供科学依据。     

The characteristic and environmental pollution records of phosphorus species in different trophic regions of Taihu Lake, China

Total organic carbon (TOC), Total nitrogen (TN) and the phosphorus species concentrations of sediment cores taken from Zhushan Bay, Meiliang Bay, and East Taihu Lake regions in Taihu Lake, a large shallow lake in China, were determined. Experimental results showed a conspicuous eutrophication trend in the northern area of Taihu Lake. Inorganic P was found to be the main phosphorus form. Fe-bound P accounted for the largest proportion of Inorganic P in Meiliang Bay, an alga-type lake region. In East Taihu Lake, a macrophytic lake region, Ca-bound P was found in higher proportions than in other lake regions, with Organic P present in similarly large proportions. With respect to Taihu Lake sediment cores, the date at approximately 20 cm layer depth was roughly identified as 1950s, while upper 5 cm layers corresponded to the turn of the century. The drastic increase in phosphorus species concentration except for Ca-bound P was indicative of the large quantities of effluent discharge into Zhushan Bay owing to the increased industrial and agricultural production from the 1950s onwards. TN, Inorganic P, Organic P, and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations increased by over 2, 2.5, 2 and 2.5-fold, respectively, over the past five decades. A large proportion of Organic P accounted for TP, and high C/N ratios indicated that East Taihu Lake can be properly classified as an oligotrophic lake.     

太湖生态环境演化及其原因分析

太湖地处长江下游三角洲,水域面积为2338km²,平均水深1.9m,最大水深不足2.6m,为一典型的大型浅水湖泊。太湖流域地势平坦,河网密布,河湖水力关系复杂。其主要补给径流来自西南部的天目山区及西部的宜溧河流域。每年夏天,大部分入湖洪水通过位于东太湖的太浦河及东北部的望虞河分别排入黄浦江与长江,由于出入湖河道的特殊位置,使得太湖南部的换水周期较短而北部较长。近几十年来,太湖由于污染而逐步呈现富营养化特征,污染物主要来自北部的无锡市和常州市,通过河道排入太湖北部的五里湖与梅梁湾,因此上述两地的水质较南部差。在东太湖,水产养殖对水环境的影响很大,亦呈现出富营养化特征,并殃及该地区的供水,加之该地区为太湖主要的泄洪通道,因此泥沙淤积严重,而且水生植物生长旺盛,呈现出明显的沼泽化趋势;在太湖四周地区,由于湖泊围垦和水利工程建设,其污染净化能力将降低,从而加速水环境恶化的趋势。太湖所面临这些问题,有待于强化湖泊科学管理来解决。     

湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害形成机理及防治的基础研究

湖泊具有供水、渔业、旅游、维持区域生态系统平衡等功能,是支撑我国经济和社会发展的重要资源之一。但是近30年来,湖泊富营养化所导致的蓝藻水华频繁暴发,生态灾害事件频发,严重影响湖泊功能的发挥, 制约区域经济可持续发展。针对国家在保障区域水安全和生态安全、保护人民健康及建设和谐社会等方面的重大需求,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害形成机理及防治的基础研究”于2008年7月正式立项。项目拟解决的关键科学问题包括：①湖泊蓝藻水华主要衍生污染物的形成机理、迁移转化规律和毒理效应;②蓝藻水华导致湖泊生态系统结构变化和功能退化的机理;③蓝藻水华生态灾害评估及调控机理。针对上述科学问题,项目以蓝藻水华污染物的产生、湖泊生态系统结构与功能的响应以及生态灾害的评估与调控为研究主线,重点开展以下几个方面的研究：①蓝藻水华衍生污染物的产生及其环境过程;②蓝藻水华衍生污染物的毒理效应与生态和健康风险;③蓝藻水华导致湖泊生态系统结构变化与功能退化的关键过程和机制;④蓝藻水华灾害治理和调控的的技术原理和途径。项目的实施和完成将为我国湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害的预防与控制提供理论和技术原理支撑。     

太湖流域营养盐产量演变和趋势的数值模拟研究

认识流域湖泊水体富营养化的演变和趋势是湖泊污染控制和治理中的重要研究课题。本文将在分析和论证太湖流域营养盐自然本底、人类活动作用急剧增加的近50年来太湖流域营养盐的变化情况、以及全球气候变化和流域经济发展未来30年太湖流域营养盐变化趋势等三方面的基础上,对太湖流域营养盐产量变化做出评估和预测。研究表明,在未来气候变化概率分析和区域经济发展规划基础上,太湖流域未来30年营养盐流域产量将比现代（2000s）增加25%～33%,这将增大太湖水体污染的压力。     

影响太湖流域的台风演变规律分析

基于台风发源地、运动路径,以及对太湖流域影响范围、降雨量等特征的分析,提出影响太湖流域台风的刻画标准。据此从1949～2010年的台风资料中遴选出230场影响太湖流域的台风。采用非参数统计、累积距平曲线及Morlet连续小波分析等方法,剖析影响太湖流域台风的频次、年内最早及最晚影响时间等参数的趋势、突变和周期性,并分析了台风与ENSO现象的关系。结果表明:影响太湖流域台风的频次和最早影响时间变化的趋势性不显著,而最晚影响时间则有显著推后的趋势;台风频次的变化呈现"少-多-少-多"波动时演变特性,并可能存在21～22a、6～8a的振荡周期;研究对太湖流域防洪减灾具有一定的指导意义。     

Study on effective species of heavy metals in lacustrine sediment core from Xijiu Lake,Taihu Lake catchment,China

The BCR sequential extraction procedure is applied to probe into the speciation distribution of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Zn, Cu and Pb) in lake sediments of Core XJ2 in Xijiu Lake, Taihu Lake catchment, China. The results showed that the effective species concentration of this five heavy metal elements increased obviously during the past century, the proportions of organic/sulphide fractions of Zn, Cu and Pb decreased while the Fe–Mn oxide fractions increased, and the proportion of Fe–Mn oxide fractions of Cd decreased while the exchangeable and carbonate fractions increased. The concentrations of exchangeable and carbonate fractions of these five elements were increased in the past century, especially the proportions of these fractions of Cd, Zn, Cu and Pb increased prominently. These changes could be attributed to the anthropogenic pollution. Since the changes of the heavy metal concentrations were corresponding to the history of human activities, especially the industry development, within the catchment.     

基于水量平衡的博斯腾湖水位变化分析

博斯腾湖是我国最大的内陆淡水湖,也是新疆南部地区重要的淡水资源。20世纪50年代以来,博斯腾湖水位多次剧烈变动。尤其是近30年,博斯腾湖水位波动尤为剧烈,甚至有不断加剧的趋势,这给该区经济建设和生态环境造成重大负面影响。基于水量平衡原理,分析博斯腾湖流域1986~2012年的气象水文数据,得到1986~2002年博斯腾湖水位急剧上升的原因在于开都河径流量的增加及开都河灌区引水量的减少。2002~2012年,开都河径流量持续走低,地下水的开采导致河道损失水量增大以及泵站扬水量的增加使得博斯腾湖水位急剧下降。     

Resources and eco-environmental protection of salt lakes in China

The Chinese salt lake mega-region is controlled by an arid and semi-arid climate, and modern salt lakes are mainly distributed within areas with mean annual precipitation <500 mm. According to their geomorphological features, structural conditions, and material composition, salt lakes in China can be broadly divided into four regions. The degrees of exploitation and utilization of these salt lakes differ because these four regions have experienced different climatic changes and structural activities and have had their own characteristics of salt lake evolution since the beginning of the Quaternary. The salt lakes in these regions have different scales, economic value, and technical conditions for traffic. Among others, Jarantai (Jartai) Salt Lake and Yuncheng Salt Lake are better in terms of comprehensive utilization and environmental protection, and the potash salt lakes represented by Qarhan are most important in terms of exploitation. At present, there exist many environmental problems in the salt lake regions of China, especially in remote, small and medium-sized basins, where abusive or wasteful mining, low recovery, and mining of a single saline mineral have caused impoverishment and large quantities of byproducts. Furthermore, climatic environmental factors can also cause significant changes of salt lake environment. Since 1987, against the background of global warming, the climate in the northwest salt lake region has turned warm and wet, and lakes have exhibited a tendency for expansion and rise, whereas in the east of the region, the climate has remained in a warm dry stage, lake levels have dropped, and salt lakes have become desertified. With the implementation of the strategy of building an environmentally friendly society in China, increasing attention is being paid to eco-environmental protection. It is suggested that experience and advanced techniques in terms of comprehensive utilization, overall development, and environmental protection of salt lakes at home and abroad be further developed to strengthen observation and monitoring of environmental changes of salt lakes and build an environmentally friendly, great salt lake industry.     

北太湖沉积岩芯中有机氯农药HCH和DDT残留垂直分布特征及沉积环境意义

为了探讨有机氯农药HCH和DDT残留在湖泊沉积物中的赋存和演化过程,并利用其特有的时间标尺特征分析近现代在人类活动干扰下的湖泊沉积过程,2006年在太湖的竺山湾、梅梁湾利用重力采样器分别采集湖泊沉积岩芯ZS和ML,按1cm间隔分样。测定了两孔岩芯20cm深度以上的HCHs（六六六类）和DDTs（滴滴涕类）残留量,结合测年资料分析了两孔岩芯中近50年来HCHs和DDTs垂直分布特征及沉积环境意义。研究结果表明,竺山湾岩芯ZS中HCHs和DDTs的残留量分别为0.22～9.70ng/g和0.32～12.34ng/g;梅梁湾岩芯ML中HCHs和DDTs的残留量分别为0.18～11.02ng/g和0.52～13.44ng/g。尽管两孔岩芯中HCHs和DDTs的残留量不同,但指示的沉积时间一致:在20世纪50年代中期以后岩芯中HCHs和DDTs残留量均明显增加,在20世纪70年代末出现峰值,这与太湖流域有机氯农药HCH和DDT使用的历史相一致,岩芯ZS中HCHs和DDTs残留量以及岩芯ML中HCHs残留量在80年代初以后逐渐降低,这与有机氯农药HCH和DDT在1983年禁止使用的时间相对应。但在岩芯ML中20世纪90年代以后DDTs残留量又明显增加,显示有新的输入源,可能与90年代以来无锡、常州快速发展的"小化工、小农药"排污进入梅梁湾有关。研究结果同时还表明太湖沉积物中的HCHs和DDTs残留量在沉积岩芯上的变化序列可以作为指示太湖沉积过程的时间标尺,对太湖沉积环境变化的研究具有重要意义。     

东南季风区及青藏高原东部湖泊沉积研究与古环境重建

本文根据青藏高原东部若尔盖盆地ＲＨ孔的全面分析，讨论了青藏高原８２．６万年以来的长期气候变化，共划分为２３个阶段。基本特征为冷期持续时间要远远超过暖期，内部结构相对比较稳定，而暖期的内部次级波动要频繁得多。通过呼伦湖和固城湖岩芯研究，重建晚冰期以来的气候变化历史，新仙女木事件及全新世几次降温事件在两个湖泊中均有反映。统计了中国东部２７个湖泊湖面波动资料，讨论了季风区环境变化的穿时性。     

地区线性矩法估算的暴雨频率设计值空间连续性问题探讨

地区线性矩法(Regional L-moments Analysis,RLMA)是目前最先进的频率估算方法之一,自20世纪90年代起被广泛应用于美国及其他一些国家的防洪设计标准的分析计算中;我国近年也在太湖流域暴雨频率分析中成功地采用推广了这一水文气象途径的频率计算方法,积累了实际经验。但是,由于地面雨量站点有限、资料长度有限以及站点空间分布的不均匀等问题,研究区中相邻水文气象一致区之间暴雨频率估算值会出现空间不连续性的现象,这个空间不一致的问题尚没有得到合理的解决。在简要介绍地区线性矩法推求频率估计值的基础上,着重讨论并介绍一种概念清楚、简单易操作的基于空间往返二次内插的校正方法,来解决频率估算值空间不连续的问题。这种空间内插平差主要通过构造一个与研究区实测站点控制面积相应分辨率的虚拟网格站网来实现。研究结果表明,经过平差后校正的研究区内各站点的频率估计值的经验频率与理论概率更加接近,频率估计值的空间分布也更加合理。