On the hypothesis of the eruption origin of near-parabolic comets

The hypothesis on the genetic connection of near-parabolic comets with Jupiter, Saturn, and the transPlutonian region (5–3000 AU) proposed by E.M. Drobyshevskii is considered. It has been shown that, on average, 5.6 comets per an area of 10⁶ AU² passed through the transPlutonian region during the whole history of observations. Six-hundred nineteen comets crossed the ecliptic at heliocentric distances ranging from 0 to 2 AU. As has been shown, from the total number of 945 near-parabolic comets, eight comets closely approached Jupiter and five closely approached Saturn. The Kreutz comets, 1277 objects, did not approach Jupiter closer than 3 AU. Their minimal distance to Saturn was 5.5 AU. The minimal distance of the Kreutz comets from the edge of the transPlutonian region was 28.8 AU. The analysis led to the conclusion that the concept on the origin of the near-parabolic comets suggested by Drobyshevskii is groundless.     

On the relationship of long-period comets to known and unknown planets

Statistical aspects of the question of the dynamical relationship of long-period comets to giant planets (Saturn, Uranus, Neptune), dwarf planets (Pluto, 2003 EL₆₁, 2003 UB₃₁₃), and five hypothetical planets are investigated. Data for 859 and 888 comets (2005, 2006) with periods P > 200 years are used in the statistics. No comets of the Kreutz, Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups are considered. The minimum interorbital distances of comets from the listed planetary bodies are mainly analyzed. Effects testifying to the kinematical relationship of some of the comets to planets have been established by testing the cometary data relative to 67 planes. The distribution of the perihelia of long-period comets is also discussed.     

Dynamical evolution of a cometary swarm in the outer planetary region

The dynamical evolution of bodies under the gravitational influence of the accreting proto-Uranus and proto-Neptune is investigated. The main aim of this study is to analyze the interrelations between the accretion of Uranus and Neptune with other processes of cosmological importance as, for example, the formation of a cometary reservoir from bodies placed into near-parabolic orbits by planetary perturbations and the scattering of bodies to the region of the terrestrial planets. Starting with a mass ratio (initial mass/present mass) of 0.1, Uranus and Neptune acquire masses close to their present ones in a time scale of 10⁸ years. Neptune is found to be the most important contributor of comets to the cometary reservoir. The time scale of bodies scattered by Neptune to reach near-parabolic orbits (semimajor axes a > 10⁴ AU)is about 10⁹ years. The contribution of Uranus was partially inhibited because a large part of the residual bodies of its accretion zone fell under the strong gravitational influence of Jupiter and Saturn. A significant fraction of the bodies dispersed by Uranus and Neptune reached the region of the terrestrial planets in a time scale of some 10⁸ years.     

Invisible comets on evolutionary track of short-period comets

We systematically surveyed the orbits of short-period (SP) comets that show a large change of perihelion distance (q) between 1–2 AU (visible comets) and 4–5 AU (invisible comets) during 4400 years. The data are taken from Cosmo-DICE (Nakamura and Yoshikawa 1991a), which is a long-term orbital evolution project for SP comets. Recognizing that q is the most critical element for observability of comets, an invisibility factor (f), defined as the ratio of unobservable time span to observable span during 4400 years, is calculated for each of the large-q-change comets. A detection limit for each comet is obtained from the heliocentric distance at discovery and/or the absolute magnitude at recent apparitions. A mean f value for 35 SP comets with 2.9 J (J is the Tisserand's invariant) is found to be 19.8. This implies that for each visible SP comet of this J-range, at every epoch of time, there exist about 20 invisible comets near the capture orbits by Jupiter, under the assumptions of steady-state flux and ergodicity for the SP-comet population.     

Are There Many Inactive Jupiter-Family Comets among the Near-Earth Asteroid Population?

We analyze the dynamical evolution of Jupiter-family (JF) comets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with aphelion distances Q>3.5 AU, paying special attention to the problem of mixing of both populations, such that inactive comets may be disguised as NEAs. From numerical integrations for 2×10⁶ years we find that the half lifetime (where the lifetime is defined against hyperbolic ejection or collision with the Sun or the planets) of near-Earth JF comets (perihelion distances q<1.3 AU) is about 1.5×10⁵ years but that they spend only a small fraction of this time (∼ a few 10³ years) with q<1.3 AU. From numerical integrations for 5×10⁶ years we find that the half lifetime of NEAs in “cometary” orbits (defined as those with aphelion distances Q>4.5 AU, i.e., that approach or cross Jupiter's orbit) is 4.2×10⁵ years, i.e., about three times longer than that for near-Earth JF comets. We also analyze the problem of decoupling JF comets from Jupiter to produce Encke-type comets. To this end we simulate the dynamical evolution of the sample of observed JF comets with the inclusion of nongravitational forces. While decoupling occurs very seldom when a purely gravitational motion is considered, the action of nongravitational forces (as strong as or greater than those acting on Encke) can produce a few Enckes. Furthermore, a few JF comets are transferred to low-eccentricity orbits entirely within the main asteroid belt (Q<4 AU and q>2 AU). The population of NEAs in cometary orbits is found to be adequately replenished with NEAs of smaller Q's diffusing outward, from which we can set an upper limit of ∼20% for the putative component of deactivated JF comets needed to maintain such a population in steady state. From this analysis, the upper limit for the average time that a JF comet in near-Earth orbit can spend as a dormant, asteroid-looking body can be estimated to be about 40% of the time spent as an active comet. More likely, JF comets in near-Earth orbits will disintegrate once (or shortly after) they end their active phases.     

Near-parabolic cometary flux in the outer solar system

The flux of near-parabolic comets in the outer-planetary region is estimated on the presumption that the major planets and the galactic tide control the dynamics of comets. It is found that the flux of the Oort cloud comets (semi-major axis > 20000 AU) is similar to the case of a strong comet shower derived on the presumption that the galactic tidal force were not operative. On the other hand, the flux of comets with semi-major axes <- 20000 AU is found to be an increasing function of q (perihelion distance) until q reaches 20 AU, while for a 45000 AU it is a rapidly increasing function for q 12 AU. In other words, for comets of the inner extension of the Oort cloud the planetary perturbation acts as a strong barrier for them to penetrate into the inner planetary region.     

A Model for the Common Origin of Jupiter Family and Halley Type Comets

A numerical simulation of the Oort cloud is used to explain the observed orbital distributions and numbers of Jupiter-family (JF) and Halley-type (HT) short-period (SP) comets. Comets are given initial orbits with perihelion distances between 5 and 36 au, and evolve under planetary, stellar and Galactic perturbations for 4.5 Gyr. This process leads to the formation of an Oort cloud (which we define as the region of semimajor axes a > 1,000 au), and to a flux of cometary bodies from the Oort cloud returning to the planetary region at the present epoch. The results are consistent with the dynamical characteristics of SP comets and other observed cometary populations: the near-parabolic flux, Centaurs, and high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects. To achieve this consistency with observations, the model requires that the number of comets versus initial perihelion distance is concentrated towards the outer planetary region. Moreover, the mean physical lifetime of observable comets in the inner planetary region (q < 2.5 au) at the present epoch should be an increasing function of the comets’ initial perihelion distances. Virtually all observed HT comets and nearly half of observed JF comets come from the Oort cloud, and initially (4.5 Gyr ago) from orbits concentrated near the outer planetary region. Comets that have been in the Oort cloud also return to the Centaur (5 < q < 28 au, a < 1,000 au) and near-Neptune high-eccentricity regions. Such objects with perihelia near Neptune are hard to discover, but Centaurs with characteristics predicted by the model (e.g. large semimajor axes, above 60 au, or high inclinations, above 40°) are increasingly being found by observers. The model provides a unified picture for the origin of JF and HT comets. It predicts that the mean physical lifetime of all comets in the region q < 1.5 au is less than ～200 revolutions.     

Capture of comets from the Oort cloud into Halley-type and Jupiter-family orbits

This paper analyzes the capture of comets into Halley-type and Jupiter-family orbits from the nearparabolic flux of the Oort cloud. Two types of capture into Halley-type orbits are found. The first type is the evolution of near-parabolic orbits into short-period orbits (with heliocentric orbital periods P < 200 years) as a result of close encounters with giant planets. This process is followed by a very slow drift of cometary orbits into the inner part of the Solar System. Only those comets may pass from short-period orbits into Halley-type and Jupiter-family orbits, which move in orbits with perihelion distances q < 13 au. In the second type of capture, the perihelion distances of cometary orbits become rather small (< 1.5 au) during the first stage of dynamic evolution under the action of perturbations from the Galaxy, and then their semimajor axes decrease as a result of diffusion. The capture takes place, on average, in 500 revolutions of the comet about the Sun, whereas in the first case, the comet is captured, on average, after 12500 revolutions. The region of initial orbital perihelion distances q > 4 au is found to be at least as important a source of Halley-type comets as the region of perihelion distances q < 4 au. More than half of the Halley-type comets are captured from the nearly parabolic flux with q > 4 au. The analysis of the dynamic evolution of objects moving in short-period orbits shows that the distribution of Centaurs orbits agrees well with the observed distribution corrected for observational selection effects. Hence, the hypothesis associating the origin of Centaurs with the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt and the trans-Neptunian region exclusively should be rejected.     

Long term dynamical evolution and classification of classical TNOs

Classical trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are believed to represent the most dynamically pristine population in the trans-Neptunian belt (TNB) offering unprecedented clues about the formation of our Solar System. The long term dynamical evolution of classical TNOs was investigated using extensive simulations. We followed the evolution of more than 17000 particles with a wide range of initial conditions taking into account the perturbations from the four giant planets for 4 Gyr. The evolution of objects in the classical region is dependent on both their inclination and semimajor axes, with the inner (a<45 AU) and outer regions (a>45 AU) evolving differently. The reason is the influence of overlapping secular resonances with Uranus and Neptune (40–42 AU) and the 5:3 (a∼ ∼42.3 AU), 7:4 (a∼ ∼43.7 AU), 9:5 (a∼ ∼44.5 AU) and 11:6 (a∼ ∼ 45.0 AU) mean motion resonances strongly sculpting the inner region, while in the outer region only the 2:1 mean motion resonance (a∼ ∼47.7 AU) causes important perturbations. In particular, we found: (a) A substantial erosion of low-i bodies (i<10°) in the inner region caused by the secular resonances, except those objects that remained protected inside mean motion resonances which survived for billion of years; (b) An optimal stable region located at 45 AU<a<47 AU, q>40 AU and i>5° free of major perturbations; (c) Better defined boundaries for the classical region: 42–47.5 AU (q>38 AU) for cold classical TNOs and 40–47.5 AU (q>35 AU) for hot ones, with i=4.5° as the best threshold to distinguish between both populations; (d) The high inclination TNOs seen in the 40–42 AU region reflect their initial conditions. Therefore they should be classified as hot classical TNOs. Lastly, we report a good match between our results and observations, indicating that the former can provide explanations and predictions for the orbital structure in the classical region.     

Close encounters of nearly parabolic comets and planets

An overview is given of close encounters of nearly parabolic comets (NPCs; with periods of P > 200 years and perihelion distances of q > 0.1 AU; the number of the comets is N = 1041) with planets. The minimum distances Δ_min between the cometary and planetary orbits are calculated to select comets whose Δ_min are less than the radius of the planet’s sphere of influence. Close encounters of these comets with planets are identified by numerical integration of the comets’ equations of motion over an interval of ±50 years from the time of passing the perihelion. Close encounters of NPCs with Jupiter in 1663–2011 are reported for seven comets. An encounter with Saturn is reported for comet 2004 F2 (in 2001).     

Dynamical capture and physical decay of short-period comets

The brightness evolution of short-period comets is discussed in connection with their physical lifetimes. It is shown that changes in the fraction of the free-subliming area of the nuclear surface may be more important than mass decrease in determining brightness variations. The decrease in the activity of short-period comets caused by the buildup of a dust mantle may be interrupted—and partially reversed—by dust blowoffs that leave exposed areas of fresh ices. Short-period comets may thus be subject to random brightness fluctuations that make quite uncertain any derivation of their physical lifetime based on comparisons of their absolute brightness at different apparitions. As an alternate procedure, the numerical integration of the whole sample of short-period comet orbits carried out by A. Carusi, L.Kresák, E. Perozzi and G. B. Valsecchi (1984, Long-Term Evolution of Short-Period Comets. Istituto Astrofisica Spaziale Internal Report 12, Rome) is used to draw conclusions about the transfer rate of their perihelia from Jupiter's region to the region of the terrestrial planets (heliocentric distances<1.5 AU). It is found that about one short-period comet per century reaches the region of the terrestrial planets. From this result and under the assumption of a steady-state comet population, an average lifetime of the order of 6 × 10³ years (～10³ revolutions) is derived for a typical kilometer-sized short-period comet of perihelion distance q ～ 1 AU. Such a rather long comet lifetime, as compared to some previous derivations, is consistent with the survival of some periodic comets on small-q orbits of long dynamical time scales.     

End-states of short-period comets and their role in maintaining the zodiacal dust cloud

Physical lifetimes and end-states of short-period comets are analysed in connection with the problem of the maintainance of the zodiacal dust cloud. In particular, the problem of the comet-asteroid relationship is addressed. Recent studies of the physical properties of Apollo-Amor asteroids and short-period comets (e.g., Hartmann et al., 1987) show significant differences between them, suggesting that they are distinct classes of objects. A few percent of the active SP comets might become asteroidal-like bodies in comet-type orbits due to the buildup of dust mantles. The remainder probably disintegrate as they consume their volatile content so their debris can only be observed as fireballs when they meet the Earth. Unobservable faint SP comets — i.e., comets so small (m 10¹⁴ g) that quickly disintegrate before being detected, might be a complementary source of dust material. They might be completely sublimated even at rather large heliocentric distances (r - 3 AU). Yet the released dust grains can reach the vicinity of the Sun by Poynting-Robertson drag. The mass associated with unobservable SP comets with perihelion distances q 3 AU might be comparable to that computed for the sample of observed SP co-mets with q 1.5 AU. It is concluded that SP comets (from the large to the unobservable small ones) may supply an average of several tons/sec of meteoric matter to the zodiacal dust cloud.     

Relationship of comets and planets

We analyze our earlier data on the numerical integration of the equations of motion for 274 short-period comets (with the period P<200 yr) on a time interval of 6000 yr. As many as 54 comets had no close approaches to planets, 13 comets passed through the Saturnian sphere of action, and one comet passed through the Uranian sphere of action. The orbital elements of these 68 comets changed by no more than ±3 percent in a space of 6000 yr. As many as 206 comets passed close to Jupiter. We confirm Everhart’s conclusion that Jupiter can capture long-period comets with q = 4–6 AU and i < 9° into short-period orbits. We show that nearly parabolic comets cross the solar system mainly in the zone of terrestrial planets. No relationship of nearly parabolic comets and terrestrial planets was found for the epoch of the latest apparition of comets. Guliev’s conjecture about two trans-Plutonian planets is based on the illusory excess of cometary nodes at large heliocentric distances. The existence of cometary nodes at the solar system periphery turns out to be a solely geometrical effect.     

Injection of Oort Cloud comets: the fundamental role of stellar perturbations

We present Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud over the age of the Solar System, using an initial sample of one million test comets without any cloning. Our model includes perturbations due to the Galactic tide (radial and vertical) and passing stars. We present the first detailed analysis of the injection mechanism into observable orbits by comparing the complete model with separate models for tidal and stellar perturbations alone. We find that a fundamental role for injecting comets from the region outside the loss cone (perihelion distance q > 15 AU) into observable orbits (q < 5 AU) is played by stellar perturbations. These act in synergy with the tide such that the total injection rate is significantly larger than the sum of the two separate rates. This synergy is as important during comet showers as during quiescent periods and concerns comets with both small and large semi-major axes. We propose different dynamical mechanisms to explain the synergies in the inner and outer parts of the Oort Cloud. We find that the filling of the observable part of the loss cone under normal conditions in the present-day Solar System rises from <1% for a < 20 000 AU to about 100% for a ? 100 000 AU.     

Evolution of comet orbits under the perturbing influence of the giant planets and nearby stars

The orbital evolution of 500 hypothetical comets during 10⁹ years is studied numerically. It is assumed that the birthplace of such comets was the region of Uranus and Neptune from where they were deflected into very elongated orbits by perturbations of these planets. Then, we adopted the following initial orbital elements: perihelion distances between 20 and 30 AU, inclinations to the ecliptic plane smaller than 20°, and semimajor axes from 5 × 10³ to 5 × 10⁴ AU. Gravitational perturbations by the four giant planets and by hypothetical stars passing at distances from the Sun smaller than 5 × 10⁵ AU are considered. During the simulation, somewhat more than 50% of the comets were lost from the solar system due to planetary or stellar perturbations. The survivors were removed from the planetary region and left as members of what is generally known as the cometary cloud. At the end of the studied period, the semimajor axes of the surviving comets tend to be concentrated in the interval 2 × 10⁴ < a < 3 × 10⁴ AU. The orbital planes of the comets with initial $\text{a ≧ 3 × 10}{}^4\text{AU}$ acquired a complete randomization while the others still maintain a slight predominance of direct orbits. In addition, comet orbits with final a < 6 × 10⁴AU preserve high eccentricities with an average value greater than 0.8 Most “new” comets from the sample entering the region interior to Jupiter's orbit had already registered earlier passages through the planetary region. By scaling up the rate of paritions of hypothetical new comets with the observed one, the number of members of the cometary cloud is estimated to be about 7 × 10¹⁰ and the conclusion is drawn that Uranus and Neptune had to remove a number of comets ten times greater.     

SOHO/SWAN observations of comets with small perihelia: C/2002 V1 (NEAT), C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), 2006 P1 (McNaught) and 96P/Machholz 1

SWAN, the all-sky hydrogen Lyman-alpha camera on the SOHO spacecraft, designed primarily to image the interplanetary neutral hydrogen around the Sun, also observes comets continuously over large portions of their apparitions to the north and south of the ecliptic and at small solar elongation angles. Because of SOHO’s location at the L1 Lagrange point, analysis of SWAN images provides excellent temporal coverage of water production. We report here our results of observations of some interesting target comets selected from the extensive SWAN archive. These include three Oort Cloud Comets C/2002 V1 (NEAT), C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), C/2006 P1 (McNaught) and three apparitions of atypical short-period Comet 96P/Machholz 1. The common aspect of these four comets is their small perihelion distances, which are 0.19, 0.09, 0.17, and 0.12 AU, respectively. Their water production rates over their whole apparitions can be approximated by power laws in heliocentric distance (r in AU) as follows: 1.3 × 10²⁹ r^−2.1 s⁻¹ for C/2002 V1 (NEAT), 7.5 × 10²⁸ r^−2.0 s⁻¹ for C/2002 X5 (Kudo–Fujikawa), 5.4 × 10²⁹ r^−2.4 s⁻¹ for C/2006 (P1 McNaught) and 4.6 × 10²⁷ r^−2.1 s⁻¹ for 96P/Machholz 1. We also present daily-average water production rates for the long-period comets over long continuous time periods. We examine these results in light of our growing survey of comets that is yielding some interesting comparisons of water production rate variations with heliocentric distance and taxonomic classes.     

Planet X and the origins of the shower and steady state flux of short-period comets

In the planet X model periodic comet showers are associated with passages of the planet's perihelion and aphelion points through a primordial disk of comets believed to lie beyond the orbit of Neptune. A strong feature of this model is that the required orbital elements and mass of planet X are consistent with independently predicted values based on the residuals in the motions of Uranus and Neptune. Here we present a more extensive analysis of the model taking into account the fact that only those comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Saturn and Jupiter can contribute to a shower whose duration is consistent with observation (≲ 15 myr). These requirements impose a minimum planetary inclination of ≈25°, which in turn restricts the semimajor axis to be ≲100 AU. A fraction of the comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Uranus and Neptune will evolve on time scales of ∼10⁸ years into the steady state flux of short-period comets. We find that the absolute numbers of shower and steady state are comparable and compatible with the known terrestrial cratering rate, assuming the existence of long-lived extinct comet cores. Canonical planet X model parameters, deduced in part from the scattering dynamics analysis, are: semimajor axis ≈80 AU, eccentricity ≈0.3, inclination ≈45°, and mass ≈5m_⊕. An analysis is given which suggests that planet X, in its present orbit, can create the requisite density gradient of comets near perihelion and aphelion during the lifetime of the Solar System. The required inclination of planet X's orbit (≳25°) may explain the failure of previous surveys to discover the planet as its present latitude is not likely to be near the ecliptic. It it exists, the best immediate hope of finding planet X is the ongoing IRAS search in the 100-μm band and the full sky optical survey by Shoemaker and Shoemaker. Independent of the question of periodic comet showers, the existence of planet X and the comet disk can readily explain the origin of the steady state flux of short-period comets over a wide range of parameters.     

Dynamical evolution of comets and the problem of cometary fading

Possibilities to explain the observed 1/a-distribution are discussed in the light of improved understanding of the dynamical evolution of long-period comets. It appears that the ‘fading problem’ applies both to single-injection and continuous-injection models. Although uncertainties due to nongravitational effects do not allow detailed results to be drawn from the observed 1/a-distribution at small perihelion distance q, that for q ? 1.5 AU shows that a constant fading probability cannot explain all the features of the observed distribution. Assuming that comets can reappear following a period of fading, values for the assumed constant fading and renewal probabilities, and the total cometary flux have been estimated for q > 1.5 AU.     

The distribution of short-period comet magnitudes

Short-period comets with P 15 yr represent one of the most complete comet samples. The magnitude distribution of these comets was analysed using a maximum likelihood method. The brightness (magnitude) index for the comets with H ₁₀ 11 mag was estimated together with the large sample errors and found to be 0.62 ± 0.09. It was clear that many faint comets with H ₁₀ > 11 mag remain to be discovered. Some of the faint, smaller comets have probably been removed from the distribution altogether.Observational selection was also apparent for the sample of comets with perihelia q < 1.5 AU. It was found that comets satisfying the combined criteria P 15 yr, H ₁₀ 11 mag, q < 1.5 AU probably represent the most complete set of comets available. The brightness index of this sample estimated by maximum likelihood was 0.69 ± 0.14. This translates into a mass distribution index s of 1.69 ± 0.14 indicating that most of the mass is contained in a few of the larger comets rather than spread throughout the smaller ones. This distribution, although modified by mass loss, is most likely to have been produced by a process of particle accretion.     

Long-period comet flux in the planetary region: Dynamical evolution from the Oort cloud

This study analyzes the evolution of 2 × 10⁵ orbits with initial parameters corresponding to the orbits of comets of the Oort cloud under the action of planetary, galactic, and stellar perturbations over 2 × 10⁹ years. The dynamical evolution of comets of the outer (orbital semimajor axes a > 10⁴ AU) and inner (5 × 10³ < a (AU) < 10⁴) parts of the comet cloud is analyzed separately. The estimates of the flux of “new” and long-period comets for all perihelion distances q in the planetary region are reported. The flux of comets with a > 10⁴ AU in the interval 15 AU < q < 31 AU is several times higher than the flux of comets in the region q < 15 AU. We point out the increased concentration of the perihelia of orbits of comets from the outer cloud, which have passed several times through the planetary system, in the Saturn-Uranus region. The maxima in the distribution of the perihelia of the orbits of comets of the inner Oort cloud are located in the Uranus-Neptune region. “New” comets moving in orbits with a < 2 × 10⁴ AU and arriving at the outside of the planetary system (q > 25 AU) subsequently have a greater number of returns to the region q < 35 AU. The perihelia of the orbits of these comets gradually drift toward the interior of the Solar System and accumulate beyond the orbit of Saturn. The distribution of the perihelia of long-period comets beyond the orbit of Saturn exhibits a peak. We discuss the problem of replenishing the outer Oort cloud by comets from the inner part and their subsequent dynamical evolution. The annual rate of passages of comets of the inner cloud, which replenish the outer cloud, in the region q < 1 AU in orbits with a > 10⁴ AU (～ 5.0 × 10^?14 yr^?1) is one order of magnitude lower than the rate of passage of comets from the outer Oort cloud (～ 9.1 × 10^?13 yr^?1).