中国参与长期（2000-2050年）CO2减排的情景选择

利用国外较为成熟的气候与经济综合评估模型（DICE/RICE）,通过调整CO₂排放控制率,对我国2000-2050年的若干CO₂排放情景进行了设定,在保证大气CO₂总量稳定的前提下开展了若干CO₂减排方案下我国CO₂排放量、经济发展水平和效用水平的影响评估。研究结果表明,若干CO₂减排方案都可以使未来200年的全球平均地表温度增量控制在3.2℃的气候安全阈值范围内,都可以有效地保护全球气候安全。当我国到2050年的CO₂排放量从2000年的253%控制为50%时,国内生产总值(GDP)的下降幅度从0.33%增加到12.22%,相对应的效用值的下降幅度从0.00422增加到0.09946,其下降幅度都随CO₂减排额度的加大而增加。为此,我国将要追加621.96亿～13784.73亿美元的气候投资,占GDP的0.19%～10.5%。因此,从最大程度地减少实施减排所需要的气候投资和对我国经济影响的角度出发,我国应该优先选择到2050年CO₂排放量控制为2000年的253%这个方案。     

1975-2005年中国铁路机车的CO2排放量

基于我国铁路部门逐年统计数据,计算了1975-2005年我国铁路机车的CO₂排放量,分析了我国铁路机车CO₂排放强度及其变化特点。结果表明,由于蒸汽机车不断被内燃机车和电力机车所取代,我国蒸汽机车CO₂年排放量逐年降低,内燃机车的CO₂年排放量逐年上升,铁路机车CO₂总排放量由1975年的4223万t降至2005年的1640万t,CO₂排放强度呈现明显的降低趋势,年均降低2.4 g /换算吨公里。我国铁路机车的CO₂排放量占整个交通运输仓储和邮政行业CO₂排放量的比重也呈逐年降低趋势。     

清洁发展机制（CDM）造林再造林项目碳汇成本研究——以CDM广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例

以清洁发展机制（CDM）广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例,对项目及其5种造林模式临时核证减排量（temporary certified emission reduction,缩写为tCER）和长期核证减排量（long-term certified emission reduction,缩写为lCER）成本的动态变化进行了初步研究。结果表明：从项目期初到期末,整个项目及5种造林模式人工林的tCER成本均逐渐降低,其中项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂降至最后承诺期末的13.34 ￥/t CO₂;lCER成本先降低后升高,在第一承诺期末均降至最小值,项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂增加至最后承诺期末的105.27 ￥/t CO₂;各造林模式tCER和lCER成本均以枫香+杉木、枫香+马尾松较高,马尾松+荷木、马尾松+栎类较低,桉树最低;贴现率对项目tCER和lCER、桉树tCER、枫香+杉木lCER成本影响均较大,而对马尾松+栎类tCER和lCER成本影响均较小;对桉树一个轮伐期内的tCER成本进行了敏感性分析,单位面积碳贮量的变化对其影响较大;考虑木材收益时,项目期末tCER净现值为13.11 ￥/t CO₂,从中反映了该CDM项目实施是可行的。     

提高火电行业排放标准对中国经济和污染物排放的影响——基于环境CGE模型的测算

通过利用环境CGE模型测算实施《火电厂大气污染物排放标准GB 13223-2011》对中国宏观经济和污染物减排的短期影响。模拟结果显示,短期内,新标准对宏观经济的影响较小,GDP只下降了0.18%。从行业产出看,要素价格下降,使工业部门和出口导向型行业成本降低,产出扩张。此外,新标准对大气污染物减排的效果显著。由于脱硫脱硝装置的投入使用使末端废气去除率提高,进而导致煤炭燃烧排放量大幅下降,SO₂和NO_X的排放量分别下降22.8%和11.4%,绝对量分别减少560万t和148万t。     

全球长期减排目标与碳排放权分配原则

全球长期减排目标将对世界未来的碳排放形成严重制约,减排义务的分担原则涉及各国的发展空间,事关根本利益。部分发达国家倡导人均排放趋同原则,回避发达国家的历史责任,中国等发展中国家提出人均累积排放趋同原则,强调公平性。按人均累积排放量计算,发达国家自工业革命以来的CO₂排放量已远超出其到2050年前应有的限额,其当前和今后相当长时期的高人均排放都将继续挤占发展中国家的排放空间。因此,发达国家在哥本哈根会议的中近期减排承诺中必须深度减排,以实现全球长期减排目标下的排放轨迹,并为发展中国家留有必要的发展空间。同时必须对发展中国家给予充足的资金和技术支持,作为对其过度挤占发展中国家发展空间的补偿,使发展中国家能够在可持续发展框架下,提高应对气候变化的能力。我国在对外坚持公平原则,努力争取合理的排放空间的同时,对内要加强向低碳经济转型,努力实现保护全球气候和国内可持续发展的双赢。     

山西省燃煤电厂二氧化硫减排对硫沉降的影响分析

采用ATMOS长距离传输模型,对2006—2007年山西省燃煤电厂通过关停小机组及增设脱硫设施所减少的SO₂排放量进行数值模拟,并基于地理信息系统,分析了整个模拟范围内的总S沉降和干/湿S沉降分布特点,探讨了关停小机组及增设脱硫设施减少SO₂排放量的效果。结果表明：2006—2007年间山西省燃煤电厂装机容量增加,但SO₂排放及其导致的S沉降量持续下降,表明二氧化硫减排效果非常明显。     

海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力和效益分析

基于建立的需求-排放-成本模型,结合情景分析,评估海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力与成本。研究表明,海南省房间空调器行业在氢氟碳化物(HFCs)制冷剂转型的同时推进能效提升,既可大幅度减少直接和间接排放,实现房间空调制冷剂近零排放,同时通过节电获得相对收益。在基加利修正案能效情景与加速转型能效情景中,2021—2060年海南省房间空调器行业可分别累计减排50～62MtCO₂-eq和77～94MtCO₂-eq,直接减排量占比分别约为30%和55%,平均减排成本分别为-219.3～-219.1元/t和-115.6～-112.8元/t。     

美国气候新政背景下的中国未来CO2排放情景预测

本文应用LMDI分解分析方法对中国2000—2014年生产部门CO₂排放量变化做因素分解分析,同时结合STIRPAT模型建立CO₂预测模型,分析2017—2030年中国的CO₂排放情况。结果表明,经济增长和能耗强度变化对中国CO₂排放量变化的影响分别为114.9%、-22.6%。基于预测模型变量构建未来情景,设定正常路线、减排路线和激进路线3条路线,共包含9种情景。正常路线的低碳情景和减排路线的基准情景下可实现2025年达到CO₂排放峰值,减排路线的低碳情景可实现2020年达到排放峰值。     

中国小麦和玉米农田N2O减排措施及潜力

旱作农田是N₂O的主要排放源,削减其N₂O排放有助于整体降低农田温室气体排放。运用整合分析(Meta-analysis)的方法,研究了不同农业管理措施对中国小麦和玉米农田N₂O排放的影响,并估算了各减排措施的减排潜力。结果表明：添加抑制剂可显著减少小麦和玉米农田N₂O排放36%~46%,并增加作物产量;施氮量减少30%以内,可削减N₂O排放10%~18%,且对产量无明显影响;施用缓(控)释肥和秸秆还田能显著减少小麦田N₂O排放,但对玉米田的减排效果并不显著。在不同的减排措施下,中国小麦和玉米农田N₂O减排潜力分别为9.29~13.90 Gg N₂O-N/生长季和10.53~23.19 Gg N₂O-N/生长季。河南、山东、河北和安徽省小麦田减排潜力最大,占全国小麦田N₂O减排潜力的53%;黑龙江、吉林、山东、河北和河南省玉米田减排潜力最大,约占全国玉米田N₂O减排潜力的50%。     

实施低碳水泥标准的影响及协同减排效果分析

采用MAP-CGE模型,模拟了我国水泥行业实施低碳水泥标准对不同生产工艺产出、能耗及污染排放的影响,测算了对其边际减排成本和均衡价格的影响,分析了对不同污染物的协同减排效果。模拟结果表明：实施低碳水泥标准有利于水泥生产工艺的升级换代,并有助于水泥行业节能减排;在现有技术水平下,水泥行业在减排1 t CO2的同时将带来约1.17 kg的SO2减排量和4.44 kg的NOx减排量;实施低碳水泥标准对于水泥行业控制NOx排放很有利;但水泥行业也需承担减排成本并导致其均衡价格的小幅上升。     

基于生产与消费视角的CO2环境库茨涅兹曲线的实证研究

 基于生产和消费视角,对人均GDP和单位GDP的CO₂排放之间的内在关系进行了实证分析。对1990-2004年44个国家的人均GDP与生产型和消费型的单位GDP的CO₂排放进行面板数据的单位根检验和协整分析,在此基础上,对CO₂环境库茨涅兹曲线（EKC）进行模拟。结果显示：无论是从生产视角还是从消费视角,单位GDP的CO₂排放量都具有显著的倒"U"形状,符合环境库茨涅兹曲线特征。但对于多数发展中国家,消费型单位GDP的CO₂排放量总是低于生产型单位GDP的CO₂排放量,表明多数发展中国家在国际贸易中存在着内涵CO₂排放的净出口,这对从生产角度核算国家温室气体排放体系提出了挑战。最后,分析了CO₂环境库茨涅兹曲线对中国应对气候变化的启示。     

基于生产与消费视角的CO2环境库茨涅兹曲线的实证研究

基于生产和消费视角,对人均GDP和单位GDP的CO₂排放之间的内在关系进行了实证分析。对1990-2004年44个国家的人均GDP与生产型和消费型的单位GDP的CO₂排放进行面板数据的单位根检验和协整分析,在此基础上,对CO₂环境库茨涅兹曲线（EKC）进行模拟。结果显示：无论是从生产视角还是从消费视角,单位GDP的CO₂排放量都具有显著的倒"U"形状,符合环境库茨涅兹曲线特征。但对于多数发展中国家,消费型单位GDP的CO₂排放量总是低于生产型单位GDP的CO₂排放量,表明多数发展中国家在国际贸易中存在着内涵CO₂排放的净出口,这对从生产角度核算国家温室气体排放体系提出了挑战。最后,分析了CO₂环境库茨涅兹曲线对中国应对气候变化的启示。     

The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO₂ constraint earlier in the century.     

Estimated supply of RED credits 2011–2035

Previous attempts to estimate the supply of greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced emissions from deforestation (RED) have generally failed to incorporate policy developments, country-specific abilities and political willingness to supply offsets for developed countries’ emissions. To address this, we estimate policy-appropriate projections of creditable emission reductions from RED. Two global forest carbon models are used to examine major assumptions affecting the generation of credits. The results show that the estimated feasible supply of RED credits is significantly below the biophysical mitigation potential from deforestation. A literature review identified an annual RED emission reduction potential between 1.6 and 4.3 Gt CO₂e. Feasible RED supply estimates applying the OSIRIS model were 1.74 Gt CO₂e annually between 2011 and 2020, with a cumulative supply of 17.4 Gt CO₂e under an ‘own-efforts’ scenario. Estimates from the Forest Carbon Index were very low at $5/t CO₂e with 8 million tonne CO₂e annually, rising to 1.8 Gt CO₂e at $20/t CO₂e. Cumulative abatement between 2011 and 2020 was 9 billion Gt CO₂e ($20/t CO₂e). These volumes were lower, sometimes dramatically, at prices of $5/t CO₂e suggesting a non-linear supply of credits in relation to price at a low payment level. For policy makers, the results suggest that inclusion of RED in a climate framework increases abatement potential, although significant constraints are imposed by political and technical issues.     

Transaction costs of the Kyoto Mechanisms

Transaction costs will reduce the attractiveness of the Kyoto Mechanisms compared to domestic abatement options. Especially the project-based mechanisms Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are likely to entail considerable costs of baseline development, verification and certification. The Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase and the Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) programme give indications about the level of these costs. Under current estimates of world market prices for greenhouse gas emission permits, projects with annual emission reductions of less than 50,000 t CO₂ equivalent are unlikely to be viable; for micro projects transaction costs can reach several hundred € per t CO₂ equivalent. Thus, the Marrakech Accord rule to have special rules for small scale CDM projects makes sense, even if the thresholds chosen advantage certain project types; projects below 1000 t CO₂ equivalent per year should get further exemptions. An alternative solution with no risk for the environmental credibility of the projects would be to subsidise baseline setting and charge lower, subsidised fees for small projects for the different steps of the CDM/second track JI project cycle.     

Carbon co-benefits of tighter SO2 and NOx regulations in China

Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO₂ and NO_x emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO₂ emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO₂ and NO_x emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO₂ emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO₂ intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately.     

中国钢铁行业节能减排措施的协同控制效应评估研究

以中国钢铁行业为研究对象,对典型行业节能减排措施开展协同控制效应评估分析,试图为制定行业局地大气污染物与温室气体协同控制行动方案和规划提供依据.首先采用排放因子法计算各项措施对各类局地大气污染物和各类温室气体的减排量,并归一化为综合大气污染物协同减排量(ICER),进而采用协同控制效应坐标系、协同控制交叉弹性、单位污染...     

Domestic Environmental Benefits of China's Energy-Related CDM Potential

We estimate the domestic environmental and health benefits of exploiting China's energy-related CDM potential. Exploiting the CDM potential may save between 3,000 and 40,000 lives annually. Additional gains are estimated to reach upwards from 1 billion RMB annually. The key to these gains is the fact that actions and measures to reduce CO₂ emissions also reduce emissions of TSP and SO₂. In our estimate, exploiting the CDM-potential will cut SO₂-emissions by between one-half and three million tons annually. To arrive at these conclusions we synthesize a significant body of recent research on co-benefits of climate abatement in China.