台风运动内在随机性的研究

本文用差分方法，对决定性的正压涡度方程实施了四组数值积分。根据模式输出量，求得了台风中心移速的一维序列和二维序列。计算了移速序列的关联维数和Ｋ熵。结果表明模式大气中台风中心的移动具有内在随机性。最后讨论了局域热源和基流对台风移动路径随机性和可预测性的影响。     

人造台风模型及资料同化对T213L31模式台风路径预报能力的影响

利用2003年台风季节T213L31的12时10天预报分析了国家气象中心全球中期数值预报模式系统T213L31对台风路径的预报能力,并就如何改进其对台风路径的预报能力进行了探讨。结果表明,在台风季节,T213L31模式在近57%的预报中对台风路径有预报,但初始位置误差较大。没有预报的区域主要集中在13～20°N,120°E以东的台风生成较为集中的地方,而此区域恰好不存在常规观测资料。对于目前仍采用OI分析的T213L31中期预报系统,常规观测资料在此区域的匮乏是其在此台风集中生成区预报能力较弱的主要原因。为了改进T213L31对台风路径的预报能力,本文就增加常规观测、加入人造台风模型进行了数值试验。试验结果显示,有限的常规观测对T213L31对台风的预报能力有明显提高。人造台风的加入无疑会改善T213L31在无常规资料区的预报,也会改善T213L31在资料较丰富地区的短期台风路径预报能力(36小时以内预报),而对较长时效预报的影响则有好有坏。     

THE MODELING STUDY OF DOWNBURST*

Downburst is a very dangerous weather phenomenon for aeroplane taking off or landing. In order to understand the initial formation and evolution of downburst and to study the effects of atmospheric environment condition and the microstructure of cloud-precipitation particles on the downburst development processes, we have designed and carried out a modeling scheme by making use of our own non-hydrostatic compressible mesoscale-γ model including necessary cloud-precipitation processes. The initial conditions of temperature, humidity and wind are from an observation case in which the downburst occurred. The results of computations demonstrate the evolution of downburst and show the variation of various environmental and microphysical parameters. Some of the mechanisms about the downburst occurrence have been obtained. Computation results may help airport forecasters to determine the occurrence of downburst better.     

台风暴雨的研究进展

台风灾害的主要部分往往是由台风暴雨引起的,对台风暴雨的研究有利于提高对台风天气的预报水平.过去十几年中,在远距离台风暴雨、螺旋雨带的形成理论、台风系统对中纬度地区降水的影响、暴雨分布、下垫面特征对暴雨的影响和暴雨的突然增幅等方面都取得了新的进展.我们对上述进展作了综述,并对现阶段存在的问题进行讨论.     

台风"玛姬"(9903)数值模拟试验

通过对台风“玛姬”(9903)个例进行数值模拟,探讨了海温和地形作用对台风“玛姬”(9903)路径的影响,分析了环境气流、台风非对称结构与台风移动路径之间的关系。结果表明：海温对台风“玛姬”(9903)路径有一定的影响,地形作用对台风“玛姬”(9903)路径的影响不可忽视,台风非对称结构对9903号台风异常路径的作用非常重要。     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

THE IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE TRACK OF TYPHOON OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC*

There is a close relationship between variation of middle latitude synoptic system over the Tibetan Plateau and movement of typhoon over the Northwest Pacific.This paper tries to discuss the mechanism of it through the numerical simulation and dynamic diagnosis.25-year statistical results during the period from 1970 to 1995 indicate that the relationship between middle latitude circulation over the Plateau and the track of typhoon over the Northwest Pacific are as follows.When longwave trough in 500 hPa isobaric surface over the Plateau.it is favourable to typhoon's westward movement:on the contrary,large scale anticyclone over the Plateau is favourable to typhoon's recurvature.We simulated the typhoon under these two flow patterns with MM5 model.Numerical simulation results showed that:(a)Longwave trough on 500 hPa surface over the Plateau makes subtropical high extended westward so as to typhoon south to high moves westward in easterly steering flow.(b)Anticyclone over the Plateau will bring about the longwave trough developing along the east coast of Asia,it'will usually cause typhoon recurring in front of the developed trough.In addition,the results of dynamic diagnosis show the physical mechanism on impact of synoptic system over the Plateau on the downstream synoptic system,that is,the transport of disturbance kinetic energy over the upstream Plateau makes the downstream trough developed.And then it affects the steering flow of typhoon.Because of existence of the high ridge over the Plateau.the energy transport channel moves to north.On the contrary,the trough exists over the Plateau,the energy transport channel moves to south.The southerly in front of trough over the Plateau and the southerly in the east part of typhoon transport low potential vorticity of low latitude into subtropical high.That is beneficial to development of subtropical high and affects typhoon's movement.These results fully reflect the impact of interaction between mid-latitude and low latitude on synoptic system.     

KINEMATIC ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON POLLY(No.9216)*

We partition the observed wind field into rotational and divergent wind fields to analyze the stream field of Typhoon Polly(No.9216),which landed on 31 August 1992 and caused severe weather and large damage in the eastern China.The results indicate that the preservation of typhoon intensity after landing and the heavy rainfall took place onthe northern periphery of typho on are due to the strong divergent winds on the regions of low level jet(LLJ) and high level jet(HLJ) around the typhoon.The direction of divergent winds in the LLJ is perpendicular to the observed wind.But,the direction of divergent winds around the HLJ axis is parallel to the observed winds.The stream function and the rotational wind corresponding to the horizontal vorticity display the vertical circulation associated with the heavy rain,which is stronger than the vertical circulation around the typhoon center.The three-dimensional trajectories exhibit the warm and moist air parcels of LLJ traveling northward into the heavy rainfall region and ascending,then turning eastward in the HLJ.     

STUDY ON THE QUASI-FOUR YEAR OSCILLATION OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION*

Complex Singular Value Decomposition(CSVD)analysis technique was applied to study the Quasi Four year Oscillation(QFO)of air sea interaction and its coupled pattern evolution during different phases.Results show that:(1)CSVD method can better reveal phase relation between two physical fields:(2)Not only northerly anomalies from Northern Hemisphere but also southerly anomalies from Southern Hemisphere contribute to EI Nino.They converge in western equatorial Pacific,leading to outburst of strong equatorial westerly anomalies,and result in strong El Nino event onset:(3)An abnormal subtropical anticyclone circulation appears over northwestern Pacific while El Nino developing.It favors transitions from the warm SST(EINino)to the cold SST(La Nina),just as the tropical westerly anomalies produced by abnormal cyclone during a decaying La Nina.which encourage the development of El Nino:(4)The westerly anomalies in equatorial Pacific are mainly induced by eastward abnormal subtropical cyclone pairs,which are located in north and south Pacific respectively,and are not the eastward westerly anomalies from equatorial Indian Ocean.     

THE DETERMINATION OF COMPUTATIONAL PARAMETERS IN TYPHOON NUMERICAL MODELS

Optimal computational parameters are determined through comparisons of typhoon track for similarity relevant to vdrious sets of computational parameters using a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations model. The result: the Poisson equation is solved for numerical solutions at an iterative accuracy of 1.0 × 10^-4 and a time step of 20 min.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE STRUCTURES OF TYPHOON AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS USING MM5*

The track,landfall,dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical mesoscale structures and their evolution of typhoon HERB 1996 in 36 h from 0000 UTC 31 July to 1200 UTC 1 August 1996 were simulated by using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5.This period covered the process of typhoon HERB landfall at Taiwan and Fujian Provinces.Results show that the model successfully simulated the landfall process of typhoon HERB,revealed the most important characteristics of the mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic and cloud-rain physical structure during its landfall.The simulated typhoon track was close to the observation.The center of cyclonic circulation simulated at 0000 UTC on 1 August 1996 (24 h integration) was located in shore near Fuqing,Fujian Province at which the typhoon was reported to landfall two hours later.It shows that strong upward motion formed by low level convergence existed in the eye-wall and subsidence at the eye.The wind field shows clear asymmetrical structure near the typhoon center.The cloud and rainband was screw-typed distributed around typhoon center,and consisted of meso-β scale rain cores.During the period of typhoon HERB staying near and passing over Taiwan,the lower cloud was developed in the eye region so that the previous clear typhoon eye on the satellite pictures became fuzzy.Observation shows that the typhoon center was "warm",but the model simulations with higher space resolution show that in the mid-troposphere the region of eye-wall with stronger upward motion and more cloud-and rain-water was warmer than the eye.During the period of typhoon passing over Taiwan and its following landfall at Fujian,the track of model typhoon deviated about 30 km northward (i.e.,rightward) because of the orographic effects of Taiwan Island,but the strength of the typhoon was not affected remarkably.The amount of rainfall on Taiwan in the 36 h simulations was enhanced more than six times by the orographic lifting of Taiwan Mountain.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC ON PRECIPITATION IN 1991*

A zonal domain,primitive equation model is used in this paper to study the influences of the main sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) areas over the Pacific on precipitation in 1991.Some numerical experiments are made and the mechanisms of the influences are discussed.The results show that the influences of the SSTA are mainly confined within the tropical and the subtropical regions.The direct effect of the SSTA is to change the exchanges of the sensible heat and the water vapour between the air and the sea,through the consequent changes of temperature and the flow fields and the feedback process of condensation,the SSTA finally affects precipitation.     

SURFACE OZONE CHARACTERISTICS AT THREE STATIONS IN GAW OF WMO IN CHINA*

The characteristics of surface O₃ on clear days at Waliguan Observatory,Lin'an regional station and Longfengshan regional station in China were analyzed in this paper.The three stations belong to Global Atmospheric Watch(GAW)of WMO.There was obvious daily variation on clear days at Lin'an.with maximum(42.9 ppb)and minimum(20.3 ppb)of daily range appearing in spring and summer,respectively.The daily variation was more regular at Lonfengshan than at Lin'an.The maximum(about 27 ppb)appeared in autumn at Longfengshan.There was no obvious daily variation and also daily range was smaller in other seasons except weaker daily variation in summer at Waliguan.But the surface O₃ concentration(SOC)in summer was higher than that in winter at Waliguan.The SOC on clear days of summer at Waliguan was over 20 ppb higher than at Longfengshan and Lin'an.The global radiation and NO_x concentration were the main factors which control the SOC on clear days at Longfengshan and Lin'an.and played important role in different seasons and areas.The transportation of air flow around the area of Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau was the main cause for high SOC and weak daily variation in summer at Waliguan.The similar effect of transportation was obtained at the Mauna Loa Observatory.The distribution characteristics of SOC increasing with height in the troposphere determined the difference of SOC between East China and West China.     

AN EXPERIMENT STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN*

By using PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model,a 60-h simulation is performed to reproduce a frontal cyclogenesis over the Western Atlantic Ocean during March 13-15 1992.The model reproduces well the genesis,track and intensity of the cyclone,its associated thermal structure as well as its surface circulation.The major cyclone (M) deepens 45 hPa in the 60-h simulation and 12 hPa in 6 hours from 36 h to 42 h (model time) and 27 hPa in 24 hours from 36 h to 60 h (model time).Cross-section and isentropic analysis tell us that the cyclogenesis is in very close relation with slantwise isentropic surfaces;the cyclone is always superposed on the core of neutral convective stability with nearly vertical isentropic surfaces,which coincides with what the theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) says.Beginning with the theory of SVD,the development and propagation of the oceanic frontal cyclone are studied by using high-resolution model output in the context of slantwise isentropic surfaces.The results show that the frontal cyclone deepens rapidly by the interaction with the large-scale environment after occurring over the ocean with weak static stability;and the theory of SVD can well interpret the development and propagation closely related with slantwise isentropic surfaces,The downstream slantwise up-sliding movement along canting isentropic surfaces makes vorticities develop (USVD) under favorable condition (C_D<0,where CD is SVD index),and results in the moving and development of the cyclone.     

成熟台风边界层作用的数值研究

利用ＴＬ６模式，在对一次台风过程成熟阶段进行成功模拟的基础上，通过各种对比试验，研究了成熟台风边界层的作用。结果表明：在２４小时内，台风边界层内各种通量的垂直输送对其路径影响很小而对成熟台风的维持却有非常重要的作用。其中，潜热输送成为成熟台风的主要能源，其影响最为重要。感热输送对成熟台风几乎无影响。边界层的动量垂直输送具有双重作用，摩擦辐合使上升运动增大，但明显对下层涡旋有削弱作用，这近似于在台风     

SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS ON ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALY OF THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS IN NORTHERN WINTER*

In terms of observational analysis and numerical simulations,study is performed of the synergistic effects of the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific SSTA on the atmosphere in northern winter.It turns out that the SSTA features show in-phase variation for the Indian Ocean and the central/eastern Pacific at low latitudes and anti-phase change compared with that in the neighborhood of the western Pacific "warming pool".When negative SSTA in the western Pacific and positive SSTA in the central/eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean are available,the 500 hPa height anomaly exhibits a wave train of a positive-negative-positive anomaly following a great-circle path emanating from the subtropical western Pacific via the NW portion to North America,with enhanced westerly jet over midlatitude East Asia and the NW Pacific,and v.v.The comparison to the results from the numerical modeling of the tropical western Pacific SSTA reveals the importance of the synergistic effects of the oceans on atmospheric circulations.     

STUDY ON CANONICAL AUTOREGRESSION PREDICTION OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENT FIELDS*

Through extension of canonical correlation to the analysis of meteorological element fields (MEF), a concept from combination of canonical autocorrelation with canonical autoregression (CAR) is developed for short-term climatic prediction of MEFs with a formulated scheme. Experimental results suggest that the scheme is of encouraging usefulness to a weak persistence MEF,i.e., rainfall field and, in particular, to a strong persistance one like a SST field.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE HEATING EFFECTS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC*

A zonal domain primitive equation modeling system(ZDMS) is used to study the effects of the initial heating anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and the western Pacific on the East Asian and the Chinese summer climate,the relative importance and the mechanisms are discussed.Results show that in spite of the different locations of the heating anomalies the influences of the two anomalyareas are much similar to each other when the scaling of the two areas is the same.The two areas of heating anomalies have their own affecting domains in which one is more important than the other.In the western Pacific the heating anomaly over the western Pacific is more evident and in the Tibetan Plateau area the heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau is more obvious.For the east part of China the effects of the two heating anomalies both exist and almost have the equal importance.The initial anomaly of the sea surface temperature(SST) over the western Pacific can be kept during the entire time integration while in the Tibetan Plateau it can not be maintained.     

环流非对称结构与台风移速关系的数值研究

利用准地转正压模式,在无环境气流的情况下,对初始轴对称和非轴对称理想台风实施两组共13个数值试验,研究台风环流不同区域的非对称性与其移速的关系。结果表明：（1）台风环流某些区域的非对称性与其移速有稳定的强相关,如,大风半径外围50～100KM附近东—西向东北—西南向的非对称性;（2）大风半径的位角,使台风外围环流的非对称性与其移速相关增强,而最大风速和初始非对称方位用的变化对上述相关性几乎没有影响。     

THE STABILITY OF THREE CLASSES OF STEADY BASIC STATES IN THE TWO-DIMENSIONAL COMPRESSIBLE ATMOSPHERE*

In this paper,the stability of three classes of steady basic states in the two-dimensional compressible adiabatic and non-dissipation atmosphere is discussed,and the following property is exactly demonstrated that the stability of these basic states is decided by their engine matrix A in two ways:(a)the basic states are stable if A is positively definite in set,and (b) the basic states are unstable if A is negatively definite in set.