新疆年降水变差系数的若干规律性

本文采用统计学和水文学中常用的变差系数这个统计量研究了新疆地区年降水量的变化情况。在对近百个测站的25年资料分析的基础上,发现年降水变差系数与年降水量和测站海拔有较好的关系。这个关系可用一个二元函数表示。这一发现无疑对气候理论研究和资料稀少地区的水资源研究都是有实际价值的。     

A STUDY ON THE VARIATIONS OF CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA FOR THE RECENT 100 YEARS

The time series of annual frequency of the circulation patterns W,C,E in the Northern Hemisphere and annual mean temperature of Beijing (T_B),Shanghai (T_S) and the whole country (T_C) in the period 1891-1990 are expanded as a long-term tendency,a periodic function and a random function.The coherence between circulation and temperature is calculated and analyzed.The abrupt change of circulation and temperature in the last 100 years is revealed with the methods of the accumulated anomalous curves,the signal/noise ratio as well as the Mann-Kendall test.The correlations between anomalous circulation and climate are discussed with some explanations.     

SOME RULES OF VARIATION COEFFICIENT OF ANNUAL RAINFALL IN XINJIANG,CHINA

In this paper,the variation of annual rainfall in Xinjiang by variation coefficient (C_v) widely used in statistics andhydrology is studied.Based on analysing of 25 years' observational data in 98 stations,the authors found that the varia-tion coefficient of annual rainfall has better relation with annual rainfall and sea level elevation,which can be expressedby a bivariate function.This discovery is no doubt valuable to the study of climatic theory and water resources in thearea where data are rare.     

一个新的干沉积速度型及其在高分辨区域酸沉积模式中的应用

为研究区域尺度干沉积过程，发展了一新的干沉积速度型（ＮＤＤＶＰ）。ＮＤＤＶＰ与１０２２次于沉积速度（Ｖｄ）实测资料之间平均比值为１．０６±０．８２，表明ＮＤＤＶＰ与实测资料有好的一致性。用分别具有ＮＤＤＶＰ和原Ｖｄ型的高分进区域酸沉积模式（ＥＭ３）作实例预测，发现仅由Ｖｄ型的不同所引起的ＳＯ＝４中心浓度之间最大比值可达２．４，用ＮＤＤＶＰ预测的物质浓度和干沉积量比用原Ｖｄ型有明显的改善。     

台风的螺旋结构

本文从描写台风运动的动力方程组出发,讨论了台风的螺旋结构,给出了这种螺旋结构的图样,指出:(1)台风螺旋结构的形成是台风中重力惯性内波,特别是重力内波的作用所致,(2)台风螺旋结构的形式与波位相速紧密相关,北半球的曳式螺旋结构要求螺旋图样环绕台风眼逆时针且由中心向外运动,其向外运动的速度近于重力内波的传播速度,(3)台风的曳式螺旋倾角一般小于45°,而在台风边缘,倾角约为10°,螺旋臂间距在二旋臂结构中平均为220公里,而在四旋臂结构中平均为110公里,(4)台风螺旋波也有频散作用,在曳式螺旋中c_(gr)与c_r皆为正,且c_(gr)相似文献   

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF THE KINEMATIC CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROPAGATION OF ATMOSPHERIC STATIONARY WAVES

Time-mean global general circulation data are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial variations ofthe meridional gradient of zonal mean potential vorticity,the critical wavenumber n_s for horizontal wave-propagation,and the critical wavenumber K_c for vertical wave-propagation.Thereby the kinematic charac-teristics in the propagation of atmospheric stationary waves and their annual variations are studied.Resultsshow that in the troposphere n_s and K_c usually decrease with the increase of either latitude or altitude.Synoptic and near-resonant Rossby waves could be trapped during their upward and meridional propagations.These characteristics possess prominent annual variations,especially in the Northern Hemisphere.It is foundthat the spatial and temporal variations of these kinematic characteristics are in good agreement with those ofthe atmospheric wave patterns.     

天津市夏季降水日变化特征

利用1954－2007年天津市夏季逐时自记降水资料,分析了天津市夏季降水（包括逐小时降水量、降水频次、降水强度以及不同持续时间降水）日变化规律。结果表明：天津市一日内不同时次的多年累积降水量具有显著的日变化特征,呈明显的双峰型,高值分别出现在午后17时和午夜02时。逐小时降水强度与降水量的变化特征非常一致,而多年累积降水频次在凌晨02时至08时较高,之后至11时逐步降低,11时至24时变化不大。降水量与降水频次及降水强度的关系均达到显著性水平（P < 0.001）,但逐小时降水强度与降水量相关性明显高于降水频次,表明降水量变化与降水强度有直接的关系,而降水频次对累积降水量的贡献占较小的权重。持续不同时间降水事件的发生次数在一日内的变化特征明显不同,长时性降水峰值集中在清晨,而短时性降水尤其是1-3 h降水主要以午后为主。     

MM5和ETA相似理论近地层方案对农田下垫面通量模拟比较研究

近地层湍流通量计算对于中尺度数值模式有重要意义, 湍流通量的参数化是当前大气边界层研究的重要课题之一。选择青藏高原东缘大理观象台边界层通量观测系统, 离线测试了WRF区域模式中的两种常用的近地层参数化方案(MM5相似理论非迭代方案A和ETA 相似理论迭代方案B), 并将参数化方案计算结果与边界层铁塔涡动相关法的观测值进行对比分析。在大理观象台观测场不同植被随季节交替的状况下, 根据边界层铁塔4层高度风速拟合, 发现近地层空气动力学粗糙度随季节变化特征明显。将拟合的空气动力学粗糙度输入模式参数化方案进行通量计算。结果表明:稳定度是影响近地层参数化方案精度的重要因素, 在不稳定条件下方案B低估了动量通量, 方案A优于方案B, 而在稳定条件下方案A低估了动量通量, 方案B优于方案A, 两种方案总体来看误差不大。对于大理边界层通量观测场地农田植被交替的环境条件, 不同季节下垫面植被类型的差异, 以及植被的稀疏对近地层参数化方案湍流通量计算结果的精度有显著影响。方案B考虑了空气动力学粗糙度z₀和热量粗糙度z_0h的差异, 不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土或稀少植被条件下明显优于方案A。针对方案B不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土下垫面仍出现高估的现象, 在使用了(Zeng, et al, 1998)提出的对于使用辐射地表温度在裸土下垫面时的订正方法后, 计算结果也有明显改善。     

MM5和ETA相似理论近地层方案对农田下垫面通量模拟比较研究

近地层湍流通量计算对于中尺度数值模式有重要意义,湍流通量的参数化是当前大气边界层研究的重要课题之一.选择青藏高原东缘大理观象台边界层通量观测系统,离线测试了WRF区域模式中的两种常用的近地层参数化方案(MM5相似理论非迭代方案A和ETA相似理论迭代方案B),并将参数化方案计算结果与边界层铁塔涡动相关法的观测值进行对比分析.在大理观象台观测场不同植被随季节交替的状况下,根据边界层铁塔4层高度风速拟合,发现近地层空气动力学粗糙度随季节变化特征明显.将拟合的空气动力学粗糙度输入模式参数化方案进行通量计算.结果表明:稳定度是影响近地层参数化方案精度的重要因素,在不稳定条件下方案B低估了动量通量,方案A优于方案B,而在稳定条件下方案A低估了动量通量,方案B优于方案A,两种方案总体来看误差不大.对于大理边界层通量观测场农田植被交替的环境条件,不同季节下垫面植被类型的差异,以及植被的稀疏对近地层参数化方案湍流通量计算结果的精度有显着影响.方案B考虑了空气动力学粗糙度z₀和热量粗糙度z_0h的差异,不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土或稀少植被条件下明显优于方案A.针对方案B不稳定条件下感热通量计算结果在裸土下垫面仍出现高估的现象,使用了Zeng等1998年提出的用辐射地表温度订正裸土下垫面感热能量方法后,计算结果也有明显改善.     

吉林省气候变化对水资源的影响

吉林省位于我国的东北部,气候比较湿润,但水资源并不充足,每人每年仅有1565方水储量,只是世界平均11000方的1/7,并且水储量在地区分布上差异可达几十倍。本文讨论了水资源对吉林省工农业生产和人民生活的影响。分析表明,气候变化对水资源影响比降水大得多,并给出一个普遍表达式:K=(1-B/r)~(-1)其中K是水资源相对变幅与雨量相对变幅的比值,B是年蒸发量,r是年雨量。最后还讨论了合理利用水资源及水储量长期预测问题。     

Characteristics of rainfall over Brazil: Annual variations and connections with the Southern Oscillation

Summary Annual and interannual variations of rainfall over Brazil are discussed. First, rainy and dry seasons for several stations of Brazil are determined using the data of 21 years (1958–1978). The progressive movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone seems to be associated with the progresive variation of rainfall seasons in the equatorial eastern Brazil. The annual migration of deep tropical convection from Central and Southern Portion of the Amazon basin in austral summer to the northwestern sector of South America in austral winter seems to be responsible for the annual cycle of rainfall in the Amazon basin. The conncection between the interannual variation of rainfall over Brazil and the Southern Oscillation is also discussed. The correlation coefficient between the Southern Oscillation index and the rainfall is generally small over most of Brazil except over Rio Grande do Sul. The correlation between the spring rainfall of Rio Grande do Sul and the Southern Oscillation index of the same or of the previous season is significantly high and shows prospects for seasonal rainfall prediction.With 5 Figures     

福州市PM10突变特征与气象条件的关系研究

利用2004～2006年福州市PM10逐日资料,及同期地面气象要素资料和08时850 hPa天气图资料,采用统计分析方法,综合分析了PM10发生突变时气象条件的变化特征,结果表明:当地面气象要素场出现气压下降、风速下降、温度上升、相对湿度上升、降水量下降或出现气压上升、风速下降、温度下降、相对湿度下降、降水量下降的配置时PM10易发生正突变;当出现气压上升、风速上升、温度下降、相对湿度维持、降水量上升或出现气压下降、风速上升、温度上升、相对湿度上升、降水量上升的配置时PM10易发生负突变;当受大陆高压后部、暖区辐合系统影响时,PM10发生正突变的概率较高,受切变线、大陆高压前部系统影响时,PM10发生负突变的概率较高.     

The extreme value distribution of 5-min rainfall data at Belgrade

Summary For practical applications both the parent distribution of rainfall intensities and the distribution of their annual maxima are of interest. The relationship between these two distributions cannot be obtained from classical extreme value theory because of seasonal variation and serial correlation in the data. Mathematical results for the distribution of maxima in m-dependent sequences are presented to illustrate the effect of local dependence on the extreme value distribution. The average number of exceedances in a cluster is an important parameter in the relationship between the parent and the extreme value distribution. For 5-min rainfall data from Belgrade, quantiles of the annual maxima are overestimated by about 10 mm h^–1 if the effect of serial correlation is ignored. This bias can easily be removed by taking the local clustering of large rainfall intensities in a rainy spell into account.With 4 Figures     

我国年、季降水的年代际变化分析

通过对我国年、季降水的年代平均距平百分率图的对比分析，计算10年滑动平均距平场相关系数和年代之间平均距平差值t统计量的统计检验。结果表明，我国年、季降水具有较明显的年代际变化趋势。这些结果对于降水的年代气候预测和短期气候预测都具有重要意义。     

不同水力负荷的垂直流湿地对生活污水处理效果研究

以沈阳浑南垂直流人工湿地模拟系统为研究对象,考察了湿地模拟系统对生活污水的处理效果,重点研究了不同水力负荷的影响。结果表明,垂直流湿地模拟系统对生活污水具有较好的处理效果,出水NH₄⁺-N、TP、COD_Cr和BOD₅均达到了《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》（GB18918-2002）一级A 标准;水力负荷为0.156 t/m²&#8226;d时,是垂直流湿地模拟系统运行的最佳负荷。     

城市空气污染二氧化硫数值预报中的背景值对比研究

利用ADMS在制作鞍山市空气污染二氧化硫数值预报研究工作中,根据对2007年1—5月逐日鞍山市6个监测点的监测资料,分别选用当天浓度监测值背景值,前一天浓度监测值背景值,按比例扩大ADMS模型的预测结果,考虑背景气象条件决定的背景值,将4种背景值的方案进行污染预测比较。结果表明：以背景气象条件决定的背景值为基础实施预报,其结果的相关系数和符合指数最为显著。4种预报方案中,以考虑背景气象条件的背景值方案预报效果为最好。     

Interrelationship of rainfall,temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET₀ is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET₀). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET₀ trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET₀ trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET₀ is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET₀ amount.     

海冰—海温反馈系统的季节性动力气候模式

本文在全海洋地球的假定下,建立了一个包括太阳辐射、海面温度等季节变化的理想动力气候模式。模拟结果指出:平衡态及其对外参数敏感性的季节变化很大,而且都是夏季比其它季节大得多;四个季节敏感性的平均值也比年平均模式的敏感性大,这可能主要是太阳辐射季节变化引起的。另外,当太阳常数或二氧化碳浓度减小至一定值时,会出现分岔,若继续减小到分岔点以下,则会发生气候灾变—"深冻"。分岔点上外参数的值在夏季要比其它三个季节大得多。以上结果表明物理过程的季节变化在长期气候变化的研究中是不可忽视的。      

江苏省雨日及降水量的气候变化研究

利用江苏省1960—2000年13个测站逐日降水资料,分析了41 a来江苏省年、季、月雨日的时空特征和雨日的气候变化。结果表明,江苏省的年雨日已经明显减少,平均每10 a雨日减少10.4 d。各季的雨日都呈负趋势,平均每10 a季雨日减少2.6 d。而秋季雨日减少最明显也最多。雨日长期趋势变化有明显的空间变化。江苏省的年雨日东部比西部减少的多,东部雨日每10 a减少14.6 d。月雨日也呈减少趋势,尤以4月、9月明显。雨日的长期趋势变化与降水量的长期趋势变化并不完全一致,这种不一致表现在长期趋势变化的强度上、范围上。总的来说,雨日的负趋势变化要强于降水量,负趋势的范围也要比降水量来得广一些。     

昆山市暴雨时空分布特征及设计暴雨强度公式推求

基于江苏省昆山市2008—2015年12个自动气象站逐分钟降雨数据和常规气象站小时降雨量数据,并选取5个代表站分别代表不同的生态系统,先对昆山市降雨和暴雨的时空特征进行分析,然后采用年多个样法进行暴雨选样,利用指数分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和耿贝尔分布分析暴雨发生频率,最后使用高斯-牛顿法推求不同生态系统代表站的暴雨强度公式参数,结果表明:(1)昆山市各站点2008—2015年期间年降雨量都呈增长趋势,夏季降雨量最多、冬季最少,一天中01时(北京时间,下同)左右为降雨谷值,18时左右为降雨峰值,白天降雨多于夜晚; 在空间分布上,农田和城市生态系统的年降雨量、年降雨日数最多,湿地和湖泊生态系统较少。(2)暴雨日数年际差异大,年内暴雨主要集中在夏季,暴雨发生频次日变化呈“双峰型”分布,暴雨发生频次在02时和18时最多,09时和24时最少; 市区的暴雨日数空间变异系数大于郊区,且从市中心向外递减。(3)城市生态系统适宜采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布推求暴雨强度公式,其他类型生态系统适宜采用指数分布推求暴雨强度公式。