Increasing fiscal resilience to disasters in the Pacific

Pacific Island countries are among the list of countries that face the highest disaster risk globally—in per capita terms. In recent years, governments in the region have been confronted by a rise in damages from extreme catastrophic events, many increasingly linked to climate change. These events pose significant challenges to Pacific governments in terms of maintaining fiscal stability and the operation of their limited and under-diversified economies and shallow financial sectors. Governments in the region generally play a leading role in domestic economies and are responsible for leading disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery efforts. Accordingly, measures to improve financial sustainability and the public sector’s ability to provide public services in the aftermath of major disasters must be prioritized. This paper examines the literature on fiscal resilience to disasters, the estimated impacts of major events in the Pacific, and analyses the applicability of available financial instruments to facilitate both ex ante and ex post disaster fiscal risk management in the region. The paper also discusses policies that can improve resilience against fiscal risks.

     

Social and Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim.     

2009/2010年我国西南秋冬春连旱特征及其大气环流异常分析

利用中国逐日站点降水资料、逐日季风监测指数及逐日副热带高压指数、74项环流指数及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 分析了2009年秋季至2010年春季的秋冬春西南特大干旱过程中各指数及大气环流异常特征.结果表明: 自2009年10月底东亚冬季风建立以来, 至2010年春季, 东亚冬季风强度持续偏强, 加之西太平洋副热带高压较常年偏西偏南, 西南地区长期受副高控制, 气温持续偏高, 加之冷空气虽然总体偏强, 但主要控制我国北方地区, 造成冷暖空气在西南地区少有交汇, 致使降水偏少, 干旱发生发展. 印缅槽强度较常年偏弱, 来自印度洋、孟加拉湾以及南海的水汽条件不足, 向西南地区输送的来自南海和孟加拉湾两条水汽通道的水汽通量均较常年偏弱很多, 加之西南地区、特别是云南地区自2009年秋季以来, 长期处于下沉运动的正距平区, 造成这段时间西南地区干旱少雨, 旱情持续. 2009年9月El Niño事件全面爆发, 南海-西太平洋地区形成异常反气旋流场, 该反气旋流场较常年偏西偏南, 造成副高位置偏西偏南, 从而使得云贵高原及其周边的印度季风区的降雨量明显偏少;高原地区及南海、菲律宾附近及热带辐合带地区OLR异常对西太平洋副热带高压的变化有一定影响, 进而影响西南地区降水, 其内在机制还有待深入研究.     

青藏高原东北缘黄河上游滑坡与堰塞湖研究进展

随着黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展上升为国家战略,滑坡灾害防治成为迫切需要攻克的基础性问题。另外,黄河上游地区因地形高差大、古地震及强降雨事件频繁,诱发的滑坡及滑坡堰塞湖数量多、分布广、危害重,是近年来滑坡发育和演化机制以及滑坡堰塞湖溃决效应研究的热点。本文在综合整理该地区已有研究工作的基础上,结合笔者研究团队近20年来所获得的滑坡调查评价、测试分析和防灾减灾研究成果,系统归纳了黄河上游地区滑坡调查与风险评价、滑坡时空展布规律及主控因素研究、典型滑坡堰塞湖的续存时长及溃决危害、古滑坡堆积体开发利用及防灾减灾等方面的研究进展和成果,提出了未来在该地区研究古滑坡、堰塞湖沉积与河流阶地以及堰塞湖溃决效应等应关注的4个科学问题。研究结果对于揭示黄河上游地质历史时期滑坡发育和堰塞湖形成的主控因素,探讨滑坡发育的动力机制对地震和降雨的响应过程,拓展第四纪地质学在古滑坡形成演变方面的应用研究等具有重要参考价值。     

基于“3S”技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在我国应用现状

中国具有地质构造复杂,地貌类型多样,山区面积比例高等特点。近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,大量重大工程建设、不合理的资源开发和人类活动,导致各类地质灾害频发,严重影响了民生改善和小康社会建设进程,为地质灾害风险管控带来了挑战。开展地质灾害监测预警研究,能够为灾害风险管控、监测预警、防治减灾工作提供重要的科学依据。本文由中国地质灾害监测预警研究入手,着重分析讨论了我国地质灾害发育概况、监测预警既有成果和研究现状。然后从地质灾害监测预警的主要内容、主要技术方法和主要监测预警模型的发展和现状三个方面,讨论了"3S"技术在地质灾害监测预警中的研究现状和实践应用;最后详细讨论了目前基于"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警平台在三峡库区和国家防灾减灾工作中的应用情况。本文最终结论认为,"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在各行业防灾减灾工作中的应用已日趋成熟,未来的地质灾害监测预警系统将以"3S"技术为基础,集观测、研究、风险评估、预报预警、预防治理为一体,有机结合各相关学科和大数据、人工智能、互联网+技术,通过对地质灾害的过程进行仿真模拟,分析诱发灾害的因素和发生强度,提高地质灾害预报的时间、地点、发生强度的准确性。     

东亚及其大陆边缘新生代构造迁移与盆地演化

构造迁移是盆地发展演化过程中十分普遍的地质现象,但西太平洋地区相关研究程度较低,本文基于近10年来对中国东部海域渤海湾盆地、南黄海盆地、东海陆架盆地和南海盆地等所开展的大量研究工作,并综合前人研究成果,对西太平洋地区中最具有代表性的中国东部及邻近海域的新生代构造迁移特征进行了系统讨论.西太平洋活动大陆边缘位于欧亚、太平洋和印度三大板块的交汇处,占据了全球板块汇聚中心的独特位置,并同时受到印度板块的挤入、太平洋板块的后退式俯冲、台湾造山带的楔入的联合作用,自新生代以来,形成了宽阔的自西向东后退式的沟弧盆体系.中国东部及邻区作为西太平活动大陆边缘的重要组成部分,在这个大地构造背景下,新生代的构造特征总体也表现出自西向东的迁移规律,具体表现在盆地的断裂活动性、沉积作用、断陷的萎缩与消亡等自西向东变新逐步演化,新生代的生、储、盖、圈、运、保六大油气成藏要素也表现出西早东晚、自西向东迁移的特征.这种成藏规律的识别对于中国东部油气、天然气水合物勘探具有非常重要的指导意义.最后,从板缘、板内和板下过程和机制,探讨了盆内和盆间的新生代构造迁移机制,这种构造-岩浆-成盆-成藏等的向洋变新迁移和跃迁是晚中生代以来挤出构造和新生代北西向壳内伸展、印度和欧亚板块碰撞诱发的软流圈向东流动的远程效应及太平洋俯冲带的跃迁式东撤的联合效应.     

Household response to cyclone and induced surge in coastal Bangladesh: coping strategies and explanatory variables

The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims.     

Water Security and the Countermeasures in South Asia Based on the “Belt and Road” Initiative

South Asia is the subregion of Asia with the most neighbors of China. Although the high mountains in the Great Himalayas spatially separate South Asia from East Asia along the border of China’s autonomous region of Tibet, the geographical items such as mountains and rivers link the countries in South Asia with China, resulting in a special and complex geopolitical environment and relationship. In this geopolitical relationship, the transboundary rivers are becoming a key issue of this region in an era of increasing water stress. Depleted and degraded transboundary water supplies have the potential to cause social unrest and spark conflict within and between countries in South Asia, and complicate the geopolitical relationship among them. In addition, the increasing impacts from climate change and human activities will definitely bring many transboundary eco-environmental issues in this region, projecting a big challenge to regional stability and development. The key issues related to the water resources supplement and exploration require the transboundary rivers to be a positive role in regional water resources utility and exploration, and the result will definitely affect regional relationship and water security. How to handle these issues and challenges will be a question for the countries in this region with a long time. Currently, the “Belt and Road” Initiative represents an opportunity to build a shared vision for common prosperity through regional cooperation and is a way to inject new positive energy into world peace and development. In the light of this, the countries with transboundary rivers in South Asia must come together to construct a cooperative mechanism of water security, and adopt a win-win cooperation for the use of transboundary rivers under the principles of “equal”, “equitable” and “reasonable”.     

Natural disaster management mechanisms for probabilistic earthquake loss

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy. Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems, disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public) and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.     

基于灾损评估的青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划

利用青海高原1961-2010年42个气象站逐次冰雹过程及其灾情信息, 采用滑动平均、 标准归一化及线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 承灾体易损性评估指标的基础上, 建立了冰雹灾害区划模型, 并结合ArcGIS9.3平台得到青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划图. 结果表明: 青海东部农业区、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部及三江源地区中东部为易受冰雹灾害影响的特高风险或高风险区域; 祁连山地区为中风险区, 而低风险区则位于柴达木盆地中、 西部. 区划结果与历史冰雹灾情基本吻合, 旨在为该区防灾减灾提供科学依据.     

Cenozoic tectonic jumping and implications for hydrocarbon accumulation in basins in the East Asia Continental Margin

Tectonic migration is a common geological process of basin formation and evolution. However, little is known about tectonic migration in the western Pacific margins. This paper focuses on the representative Cenozoic basins of East China and its surrounding seas in the western Pacific domain to discuss the phenomenon of tectonic jumping in Cenozoic basins, based on structural data from the Bohai Bay Basin, the South Yellow Sea Basin, the East China Sea Shelf Basin, and the South China Sea Continental Shelf Basin. The western Pacific active continental margin is the eastern margin of a global convergent system involving the Eurasian Plate, the Pacific Plate, and the Indian Plate. Under the combined effects of the India-Eurasia collision and retrogressive or roll-back subduction of the Pacific Plate, the western Pacific active continental margin had a wide basin-arc-trench system which migrated or ‘jumped’ eastward and further oceanward. This migration and jumping is characterized by progressive eastward younging of faulting, sedimentation, and subsidence within the basins. Owing to the tectonic migration, the geological conditions associated with hydrocarbon and gashydrate accumulation in the Cenozoic basins of East China and its adjacent seas also become progressively younger from west to east, showing eastward younging in the generation time of reservoirs, seals, traps, accumulations and preservation of hydrocarbon and gashydrate. Such a spatio-temporal distribution of Cenozoic hydrocarbon and gashydrate is significant for the oil, gas and gashydrate exploration in the East Asian Continental Margin. Finally, this study discusses the mechanism of Cenozoic intrabasinal and interbasinal tectonic migration in terms of interplate, intraplate and underplating processes. The migration or jumping regimes of three separate or interrelated events: (1) tectonism-magmatism, (2) basin formation, and (3) hydrocarbon-gashydrate accumulation are the combined effects of the Late Mesozoic extrusion tectonics, the Cenozoic NW-directed crustal extension, and the regional far-field eastward flow of the western asthenosphere due to the India-Eurasia plate collision, accompanied by eastward jumping and roll-back of subduction zones of the Pacific Plate.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Resource-based development in the Russian Far East: Problems and prospects

The paper examines the prospects for resource-based development in the Russian Far East. It adopts a critical perspective on the potential for resource-based development by examining problems with Far East resource industries, specifically by looking at the experience of the other resource economies more generally. In particular, it highlights the new geo-economic context for resource development in the Far East of Russia as the world economy approaches the much touted, and now questioned, ‘Pacific Century’.     

洪涝灾害风险评估与分区研究进展

在全球气候变化和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡问题。对近年来中国典型城市洪涝灾害进行系统整理介绍,说明洪涝灾害带来的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。风险评估作为一种非工程性防洪措施,是城市洪涝风险管理的首要工作,精确、高效的把握洪灾过程等特征可以为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。对城市洪涝风险评估与分区的概念和内容进行系统梳理,常用的风险评估方法有数理统计法、不确定性分析法、遥感影像评估法、指标体系评估法、情景模拟评估法；风险分区常用方法有阈值法、经验公式法和物理机制法。论述了城市洪涝风险评估与分区常用方法的应用范围、优缺点及其发展前景。     

南海的右行陆缘裂解成因

南海成果是西太平洋边缘海动力学研究的重要部分,也关系到特提期,环太平洋两大超级会聚带的相互作用,是国内外地学界长期研究的热点问题。西太平洋边缘海内带,尤其是日本海和南海在形成时代,海盆形态和海底地貌,海底扩张的多轴,多阶段,由东向西扩展特征,岩石圈地幔的地球化学异常等方面具有共同特征,可能在成因上也相似,南海的海盆的楔形的楔形形状,海底扩张及陆架盆地的断陷的由北向南发展和自东向西推进的特征,地壳伸展减薄和海底扩张程度的由东向西减弱都可用尖端向西的“剪刀模型”来描述,即南海的张开是近南北向右行剪切力作用下东亚陆缘发生裂解的结果。南海张开的同时在海盆内及其西缘印支半岛上发育大量近南北向右行走滑断裂,表明当时存在区域性的近南北向右行剪切应力,而在其东缘现在看不到大型近南北向右行走滑断裂,可能是在中中新世以后受从赤道附近近滑移北上并沿马尼拉海沟仰冲的菲律宾群岛所破坏的结果。晚中生代以来,在西太平洋构造域,特提斯构造域西段（印度）及东段（澳大利亚）先后发生了朝欧亚大陆的,不同方向和速度的会聚。在这三大作用的复合和竞争的动力学背景下,东亚陆缘发生了有地幔参加传动的“超级剪切”,其应力场经历了左行压扭体制和右行张扭体制交替的阶段性变化,正是在特提斯构造域西段的会聚起主导作用的阶段,东亚陆缘在右行张扭应力场作用下发生裂解,形成了南海和其他内带边缘海。     

An approach for measuring social vulnerability in context: The case of flood hazards in Muzarabani district,Zimbabwe

Understanding the complexity of vulnerability to disasters, including those triggered by floods, droughts and epidemics is at the heart of disaster risk reduction. Despite its importance in disaster risk reduction, there remains a paucity of approaches that contribute to our understanding of social vulnerability that is hidden in dynamic contextual conditions. The study demonstrates an accessible means to assessing the spatial variation of social vulnerability to flood hazards and related for the context of Muzarabani district in northeast Zimbabwe. The study facilitated local identification with residents of variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique to develop a social vulnerability index (SoVI). Using ArcMap10.2 geographic information systems (GIS) tool, the study mapped composite SoVI at the ward level. The results showed that Muzarabani district is socially vulnerable to hazards. The social vulnerability is influenced by a variety of economic, social and institutional factors that vary across the wards. Quantifying and visualising social vulnerability in Muzarabani provides useful information for decision makers to support disaster preparedness and mitigation programmes. The approach shows how spatially distributed multivariate vulnerability, as grounded in interpretations at local level, can be quantitatively derived for contexts such as those of Muzarabani. The study findings can inform disaster risk reduction communities and cognate disciplines on quantitative assessments for managing hazard vulnerability where these have hitherto not been developed.     

基于灾损评估的青海省牧草干旱风险区划研究

在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 表现出温度升高、 降水变率加大的区域响应, 造成极端天气气候事件、 气象灾害加剧. 基于青海省1961-2010年47个气象站和20个农气站的气象资料、 牧草的实际产量以及牧草的理论产量等资料, 采用相关分析、 线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 牧草相对产量的基础上, 确定了青海省牧区牧草干旱风险评估的实际阈值.通过海拔、 经度、 纬度、 牧草旱灾发生频次的拟合方程, 结合GIS平台对青海省牧草干旱进行风险区划.结果表明: 青南牧区西部、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部边缘地区、 祁连山地区为易受旱灾影响的特高风险或高风险区域;青南牧区西南部为中风险区域;低风险区域主要在青南牧区东南部, 区划结果基本上于历史旱灾的实际情况相吻合, 区划结果旨在为青海省牧区牧业良性发展提供科学依据.     

Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai,China

This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future.     

灰色聚类分析在地质灾害综合区划中的应用

地质灾害作为一种主要的自然灾害,其综合区划研究成为当前学术界重要的前沿课题。利用灰色聚类分析的相关理论,在确立评价指标体系原则及要求的基础上,建立基于区域多源信息融合的地质灾害综合评价指标体系和评价模型,对陕西铜川地区的区域灾害程度进行了定量评价并得到地质灾害的聚类区划图谱。该地区可划分为极重灾、重灾和中灾3大片区,所得结果与区域实际灾情基本吻合。研究表明,灰色聚类分析的数学模型可以实现区域地质灾害的定量区划研究。      

全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究

随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。