地下水观测数据拟合与预测的支持向量机方法

影响地下水位变化因素有很多,在正常情况下,地下水位的变化实际上反应了气压、固体潮和降雨这些因素的变化,但是这些影响因子与地下水位之间有着较强的非线性关系。该文使用支持向量机方法建立起崇明中学观测站地下水位与气压、固体潮和降雨这些因素之间的非线性关系模型,并用于地下水观测数据拟合与预测,得到了较理想的结果,明显优于逐步回归方法。研究结果表明,支持向量机方法在地震前兆数据处理中有着广泛的应用前景。文中还对支持向量机方法在实际应用中的有关问题进行了讨论。     

Potential of support vector regression for prediction of monthly streamflow using endogenous property

In the recent past, a variety of statistical and other modelling approaches have been developed to capture the properties of hydrological time series for their reliable prediction. However, the extent of complexity hinders the applicability of such traditional models in many cases. Kernel‐based machine learning approaches have been found to be more popular due to their inherent advantages over traditional modelling techniques including artificial neural networks(ANNs ). In this paper, a kernel‐based learning approach is investigated for its suitability to capture the monthly variation of streamflow time series. Its performance is compared with that of the traditional approaches. Support vector machines (SVMs) are one such kernel‐based algorithm that has given promising results in hydrology and associated areas. In this paper, the application of SVMs to regression problems, known as support vector regression (SVR), is presented to predict the monthly streamflow of the Mahanadi River in the state of Orissa, India. The results obtained are compared against the results derived from the traditional Box–Jenkins approach. While the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted streamflows was found to be 0·77 in case of SVR, the same for different auto‐regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models ranges between 0·67 and 0·69. The superiority of SVR as compared to traditional Box‐Jenkins approach is also explained through the feature space representation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国大陆强震时间序列预测的支持向量机方法

统计学习理论（Statistical Learning Theory或SLT）是研究有限样本情况下机器学习规律的理论。支持向量机（Support Vector Machines或SVM）是基于统计学习理论框架下的一种新的通用机器学习方法。它不但较好地解决了以往困扰很多学习方法的小样本、过学习、高维数、局部最小等实际难题，而且具有很强的泛化（预测）能力。文中使用支持向量机对中国大陆最大地震时间序列进行预测，预测次年的我国大陆最大地震震级，结果表明该方法具有较好的预报效果。研究结果还表明我国大陆强震活动除了与强震时间序列本身有关外，还与全球的强震活动、太阳黑子活动等有密切的关系。尽管这种关系还不清楚，但是通过支持向量机可以很好地反应出这种非线性关系。     

基于支持向量机的非线性AVO反演

本文提出了一种新的AVO非线性反演方法,即利用支持向量机来求解AVO非线性反演问题.文中先对支持向量机的原理进行了阐述,然后建立了适合AVO反演的支持向量机模型.最后利用该方法对模型数据和实际资料进行了反演计算,反演结果表明,该方法在没有牺牲反演效果的情况下较好的解决了传统反演方法所具有的局限性,可以直接从合成记录中提取地层的弹性参数,反演速度快、稳定性好.     

Application of support vector machine and relevance vector machine to determine evaporative losses in reservoirs

This article employs Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) for prediction of Evaporation Losses (E) in reservoirs. SVM that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing ε‐insensitive loss function has been adopted. RVM is based on a Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation. The input of SVM and RVM models are mean air temperature (T) ( °C), average wind speed (WS) (m/sec), sunshine hours (SH)(hrs/day), and mean relative humidity (RH) (%). Equations have been also developed for prediction of E. The developed RVM model gives variance of the predicted E. A comparative study has also been presented between SVM, RVM and ANN models. The results indicate that the developed SVM and RVM can be used as a practical tool for prediction of E. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

最小二乘支持向量回归滤波系统性能分析

支持向量机(Support Vector Machine: SVM)一直作为机器学习方法在统计学习理论基础上被研究和发展,本文从信号与系统的角度出发,证明了平移不变核最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares SVM: LS-SVM)是一个线性时不变系统.以Ricker子波核为例,探讨了不同参数对最小二乘支持向量回归(Least Squares Support Vector Regression: LS-SVR)滤波器频率响应特性的影响,这些参数的不同选择相应地控制着滤波器通带上升沿的陡峭性、通带的中心频率、通带带宽以及信号能量的衰减,即滤波器长度越长通带的上升沿越陡,核参数值越大通带的中心频率越高,且通带带宽越宽,正则化参数值越小,通带带宽越窄(但通带中心频率基本保持恒定),有效信号幅度衰减越严重.合成地震记录的仿真实验结果表明,Ricker子波核LS-SVR滤波器在处理地震勘探信号的应用中,滤波性能优于径向基函数(Radial Basic Function: RBF)核LS-SVR滤波器以及小波变换滤波和Wiener滤波方法.     

Ricker子波核最小二乘支持向量回归滤波方法的稳健性研究

除了信噪比、有效子波畸变等,稳健性(Robustness)也是度量滤波方法效果的一个重要的物理量,它刻画了滤波系统应对异常点值的能力.一般用影响函数作为评价稳健性的工具.支持向量机方法已较成功地应用于信号与图像的滤波中,尤其Ricker子波核方法更适于地震勘探信号处理.通过考察Ricker子波核最小二乘支持向量回归(LS-SVR:least squares support vector regression)滤波方法的影响函数,可以证明该方法的稳健性较差,本文用加权方法改善该方法的稳健性.经过大量理论实验得到一种改进的权函数,使加权之后的方法具有比较理想的稳健性.进一步用这个权函数辅助的加权Ricker子波LS-SVR处理含噪的合成与实际地震记录,都得到较好的效果.由具有平方损失函数的LS-SVR信号处理系统的无界影响函数出发,本文所提出的权函数可以有效地应用于具有相似损失函数的处理过程,如消噪、信号检测、提高分辨率与预测等问题.     

Estimation of daily suspended sediments using support vector machines

Abstract

The use of support vector machines—a new regression procedure in water resources—was investigated for predicting suspended sediment concentration/load in rivers. The method was applied to the observed streamflow and suspended sediment data of two rivers in the USA, which have already been used in earlier studies using soft computing techniques. The estimated suspended sediment values were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. Negative sediment estimates, which were encountered in the soft computing calculations, are not produced by this method. The results indicate that this approach may give better performance than those described in the literature using different methodologies.     

基于支持向量机的地震体波震相自动识别及到时自动拾取

面对海量地震资料,自动准确地拾取震相并确定其到时的需求非常迫切.基于支持向量机技术,本文提出了使用两个分类器SSD和SPS自动识别地震体波震相并自动拾取其到时的方法.相比于传统的自动拾取方法,本文方法能够更准确地识别震相并区分P波和S波.进一步地,我们提出了利用台阵资料辅助识别震相的方案,有效地提高了地震震相拾取的准确率.

     

Towards generic real-time mapping algorithms for environmental monitoring and emergency detection

Real-time analysis of data reported by environmental monitoring networks poses a number of challenges, one of which is the conversion of point measurements of phenomena that display some spatial dependence into maps. This is the case for the many variables that cannot be monitored efficiently over large regions by satellites. Environmental pollutants, radiation levels, rainfall fields and seismic activity are but a few of these variables that are usually interpolated for the production of maps. These maps will then further serve as an essential support for decision-making. Ideally, in order to allow real-time assessments and minimize human intervention in case of hazards and emergencies that are frequently linked to the above mentioned variables (e.g. air pollution peaks, nuclear accidents, flash-floods, earthquakes), these maps should be established in near real time and thus automatically. The ability of real-time mapping systems running in the routine mode to be able to cope with extreme events is not straightforward, and few systems are today used automatically for both monitoring the environment and triggering early warnings in case of necessity. Alternatively, adopting a decision-centered view of environmental monitoring and mapping systems allows us to re-formulate their final objective as a classification problem that consists of discriminating routine against emergency conditions, or background information against outliers. It is the purpose of this paper to give an overview of the main challenges for developing and evaluating automatic mapping systems for critical environmental variables, as well as to discuss steps toward the development of generic real-time mapping algorithms.     

地震前兆综合预测支持向量机模型研究

该文介绍了支持向量机算法的原理与回归方法。 采用支持向量机中的非线性回归算法与理论公式产生的多维样本, 对其进行了数值仿真实验。 利用该方法和地震前兆异常建立了最佳地震综合预测模型, 对获得的最佳模型进行了内符检验, 得出最佳模型的预测结果与实际震例的地震震级基本一致。 综合分析认为, 支持向量机无论在学习或者预测精度方面不但具有很大的优越性和具有较强的外推泛化能力, 而且基于支持向量机回归算法建立的地震前兆综合预测模型是可行的, 其获得的知识可较为准确地实现对主震震级的综合预测。     

基于小波变换和支持向量机的中国大陆强震预测

将小波变换和支持向量机用于中国大陆年度最大地震震级预测。 先用小波变换把中国大陆年度最大地震序列分解成几个不同尺度水平(频率)的子序列, 然后使用支持向量机对分解后的子序列分别进行预测, 最后通过重构几个子序列的支持向量机预测结果得到最终预测结果, 预测次年中国大陆最大地震震级。 与支持向量机和神经网络方法对比, 结果表明小波变换和支持向量机相结合方法具有更高的预测精度, 预测效果很好, 说明此方法可用于地震时间序列预测。     

基于最近邻支撑向量特征线融合算法的核爆地震识别

为增强核爆地震模式分类器的泛化能力以提高对核爆炸事件的准确识别能力,论文提出了一种选择支撑向量样本集来表征训练样本集的最近邻支撑向量特征线分类算法,用以训练时扩展核爆地震的训练样本库,提高分类器的泛化能力.该算法用于核爆炸和地震的识别结果发现,和最近邻特征线分类器相比,提出的算法降低了计算复杂度,但识别能力却有些许降低.对新算法的分析发现,纯粹的支撑向量集不能完全代表原始样本空间集,支撑向量比例在其中有重要作用,为发挥支撑向量比例的作用以提高核爆分类器的识别能力,提出了最近邻支撑向量特征线融合算法.最后以核爆地震数据库对上述算法进行了检验和分析,理论分析和识别结果证实,在相同的训练样本选择条件下,最近邻支撑向量特征线融合算法对于核爆炸的识别来说具有较好的泛化能力,正确识别率达到90.3%,且优于支持向量机算法和最近邻特征线算法.     

变化地磁场预测的支持向量机建模

变化地磁场建模与预测是地磁导航、空间环境监测等领域的重要研究课题.由于变化地磁场属于日地系统中的一部分,受多种因素的制约影响,且其变化本身也具有较强的前后相关性.本文综合空间和地面监测数据,以变化地磁场地面观测数据、地方时、太阳射电流量和行星际磁场南向分量等为输入,采用支持向量机方法,建立了变化地磁场综合模型,并进行预测.结果表明,在地磁活动Kp指数小于4时,预测3 h平均绝对误差小于1.61 nT.     

Probabilistic reservoir operation using Bayesian stochastic model and support vector machine

Available water resources are often not sufficient or too polluted to satisfy the needs of all water users. Therefore, allocating water to meet water demands with better quality is a major challenge in reservoir operation. In this paper, a methodology to develop operating strategies for water release from a reservoir with acceptable quality and quantity is presented. The proposed model includes a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimization model linked with a reservoir water quality simulation model. The objective function of the optimization model is based on the Nash bargaining theory to maximize the reliability of supplying the downstream demands with acceptable quality, maintaining a high reservoir storage level, and preventing quality degradation of the reservoir. In order to reduce the run time of the GA-based optimization model, the main optimization model is divided into a stochastic and a deterministic optimization model for reservoir operation considering water quality issues.The operating policies resulted from the reservoir operation model with the water quantity objective are used to determine the released water ranges (permissible lower and upper bounds of release policies) during the planning horizon. Then, certain values of release and the optimal releases from each reservoir outlet are determined utilizing the optimization model with water quality objectives. The support vector machine (SVM) model is used to generate the operating rules for the selective withdrawal from the reservoir for real-time operation. The results show that the SVM model can be effectively used in determining water release from the reservoir. Finally, the copula function was used to estimate the joint probability of supplying the water demand with desirable quality as an evaluation index of the system reliability. The proposed method was applied to the Satarkhan reservoir in the north-western part of Iran. The results of the proposed models are compared with the alternative models. The results show that the proposed models could be used as effective tools in reservoir operation.     

Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach

The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.     

Ricker子波核支持向量回归的Mercer条件拓展问题研究

Ricker子波核支持向量回归方法是消减地震勘探记录强随机噪声的新滤波技术.用判定支持向量允许核函数的Mercer条件探讨Ricker子波核函数的有效性,经过数值计算相应的核矩阵的最小特征值,发现在一个较大范围内存在极小的负值带,数量级为10-13~10-16,且在正值带中亦存在10-13~10-15数量级的量.考虑到正负极小量值的计算误差机理相近,认为判定核函数有效性的Mercer条件在工程应用时有可能适当放宽,即核矩阵不严格半正定,接近半正定亦可.为了将Ricker子波核支持向量回归滤波方法向实际应用发展,本文对不同的理论模型的Ricker子波核滤波和小波变换滤波、自适应维纳滤波这三种技术的效果进行了比较,包括时域波形、频域振幅谱、滤波前后的信噪比以及均方误差等方面.结果表明,Ricker子波核滤波方法优于另两种方法.为实际应用Ricker子波核滤波方法奠定基础.     

Regularized kriging as a generalization of simple, universal, and bayesian kriging

In this article the properties of regularized kriging (RK) are studied. RK is obtained as a result of relaxing the universal kriging (UK) non-bias condition by using the support vectors methodology. More specifically, we demonstrate how RK is a continuum of solutions in function of the regularizing parameter, which includes as particular and extreme cases, simple kriging (SK) and UK, and as an intermediate case, Bayesian kriging (BK). Likewise, expressions are obtained for the mean, variance and mean squared error (MSE), as also the expression for the corresponding estimator of the coefficients of the mean. Finally, we investigate the relationship between RK and the support vector machines. By means of simulations we compare the MSE for RK with those for BK and UK, for different association models, for different levels of noise, and for differently sized mean coefficients. The RK results prove to be an improvement on the UK and BK results, and, moreover, these improvements are proportionally greater for greater levels of noise.     

Ricker子波核最小二乘支持向量机在地震勘探信号去噪应用中的参数设置研究

最小二乘支持向量机（LS-SVM）用于拟合回归处理时的参数设置一直是一个难题,它会受到信号类型和强度、核函数类型、噪声强度、计算精度要求等因素的影响.本文针对Ricker子波核LS-SVM去除地震勘探信号中随机噪声问题,讨论和分析了向量机参数、核参数对去噪性能的影响.实验表明,核参数f可取为地震记录的主频,不能较准确估计时宁大勿小;向量机参数γ只要不取得过小,一般情况下都是能接受的.采用此方法对含不同强度噪声的地震勘探信号进行了去噪处理.     

基于机器学习和台阵相关性的水力压裂微地震事件自动识别及到时拾取

利用密集台阵对水力压裂微地震进行监测将有助于优化储层压裂、揭示断层活化.为满足密集台阵海量采集数据的处理需求, 本文建立了一种综合运用多种机器学习方法和台阵相关性的、无需人工干预的自动处理流程, 从而能够快速得到高质量的密集台阵震相到时目录.该综合策略包括: (1)利用迁移学习在连续波形中快速检测地震事件; (2)利用U型神经网络PhaseNet自动拾取P波、S波震相; (3)利用三重线性剔除法, 结合密集台阵到时相关性剔除异常到时数据和地震事件; (4)利用K-means和SVM两类机器学习算法, 进一步区分发震时刻接近的多个地震事件, 减小事件漏拾率.通过将该流程应用于四川盆地长宁—昭通页岩气开发区微地震监测数据, 并将自动处理结果与人工拾取结果进行比对发现, 二者在震级测定、定位以及走时成像结果等方面具有很好的一致性, 表明本文处理流程结果精度可达到手动处理精度.本文结果为密集台阵地震监测数据的高效、高精度处理提供了新思路.