Determining confidence intervals in analyzing climatic series

In the context of the problem of global warming, the question of how much the observed increase in the mean air temperature over the last decades is likely due only to natural variability is studied. It is assumed that an observed temperature-data series of length N is a segment of a stationary random sequence with a spectrum known on an interval that does not include the lowest frequencies. The variance σ²(N) of the sample mean m* and the standard deviation σ(N), which determines the width of the confidence interval of m*, are calculated for different continuations of the spectrum to the low-frequency region. For a continuation of the spectrum that boundlessly increases, as does ω^−2α (0 < α < 1/2) when the frequency ω tends to zero (red-noise spectrum), it is shown that, the closer the parameter α is to 1/2, the more slowly σ(N) tends to zero at N → ∞. Using an empirical spectrum of a global mean annual temperature series as an example, it is shown that the standard deviation significantly depends on the form of the spectrum in the lowest frequency region. An attempt has been made to assess the measure of standard-deviation uncertainty due to a lack of exact information on the spectrum in the low-frequency region. Important series characteristics—the equivalent number of independent observations N _eq(N) and the time scale of correlation T ₁(N) which are determined through the variance σ²(N) of m*—also depend on the form of the spectrum in the low-frequency region. For the red-noise spectrum, N _eq(N) increases with an increase in N proportionally to N ^1–2α (but not proportionally to N as in the case of bounded spectrum); the correlation scale T ₁(N) is no longer constant (as in the case of bounded spectrum) and increases with an increase in N proportionally to N ^2α.     

Water mass exchange and diapycnal mixing at Bussol’ Strait revealed by water mass properties

Intensive CTD observations that resolve the mean and tidal components were done with a total of 129 casts in summer of 2001 at Bussol’ Strait. Based on these data and all the available historical data, we have revealed the outflow from Bussol’ Strait to the Pacific and the significant diapycnal mixing in the strait. In the range 27.0−27.3σ _θ , the water property in Bussol’ Strait is almost identical to that of the Kuril Basin Water (KBW). The KBW out of Bussol’ Strait forms a water mass front with the East Kamchatka Current Water (EKCW). This front also corresponds to the front of the Oyashio Current. In the lower part of the intermediate layer (27.3−27.6σ _θ ), part of the water in the strait is characterized by lower temperature, lower salinity, and higher dissolved oxygen than that of KBW and EKCW, which can be explained only by the diapycnal mixing. The strong diapycnal mixing in the strait can also be shown by the density inversion, occurrence frequency of which corresponds well to the amplitude distribution of the diurnal current. In the density range 26.7−26.8σ _θ , the water in Bussol’ Strait has the lowest potential vorticity, suggesting that it is a source region of the low potential vorticity water. Seasonal change of the water can reach up to a density of 26.8σ _θ around Bussol’ Strait. This leads us to propose that the combination of winter convection and local tidal mixing leads to effective ventilation of the intermediate layer.     

Optical properties of the red tide in Isahaya Bay,southwestern Japan: Influence of chlorophyll a concentration

Remote sensing reflectance [R _rs(λ)] and absorption coefficients of red tides were measured in Isahaya Bay, southwestern Japan, to investigate differences in the optical properties of red tide and non-red tide waters. We defined colored areas of the sea surface, visualized from shipboard, as “red tides”. Peaks of the R _rs(λ) spectra of non-red tide waters were at 565 nm, while those of red tides shifted to longer wavelengths (589 nm). The spectral shape of R _rs(λ) was close to that of the reciprocal of the total absorption coefficient [1/a(λ)], implying that the R _rs(λ) peak is determined by absorption. Absorption coefficients of phytoplankton [a _ph(λ)], non-pigment particles and colored dissolved organic matter increased with increasing chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), and those coefficients were correlated with Chl a for both red tide and non-red tide waters. Using these relationships between absorption coefficients and Chl a, variation in the spectrum of 1/a(λ) as a function of Chl a was calculated. The peak of 1/a(λ) shifted to longer wavelengths with increasing Chl a. Furthermore, the relative contribution of a _ph(λ) to the total absorption in red tide water was significantly higher than in non-red tide water in the wavelength range 550–600 nm, including the peak. Our results show that the variation of a _ph(λ) with Chl a dominates the behavior of the R _rs(λ) peak, and utilization of R _rs(λ) peaks at 589 and 565 nm may be useful to discriminate between red tide and non-red tide waters by remote sensing.     

Possible Density Change of the Origin of North Pacific Intermediate Water Due to Double Diffusion in the Mixed Water Region

In this study we test Talley's hypothesis that Oyashio winter mixed-layer water (26.5–26.6σ _θ) increases its density to produce the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) salinity minimum (26.7– 26.8σ_θ) in the Mixed Water Region, assuming a combination of cabbeling and double diffusion. The possible density change of Oyashio winter mixed-layer water is discussed using an instantaneous ratio of the change of temperature and salinity along any particular intrusion (R _l ). We estimate the range of R _l ^DD required to convert Oyashio winter mixed-layer water to the NPIW salinity minimum due to double diffusion, and then assume double-diffusive intrusions as this conversion mechanism. A double-diffusive intrusion model is used to estimate R _l ^DD in a situation where salt fingering dominates vertical mixing, as well as to determine whether Oyashio winter mixed-layer water can become the NPIW salinity minimum. Possible density changes are estimated from the model R _l ^DD by assuming the amount of density change due to cabbeling. From these results, we conclude that Oyashio winter mixed-layer water contributes to a freshening of the lighter layer of the NPIW salinity minimum (around 26.70σ_θ) in the MWR.     

Spatial variability of phytoplankton absorption coefficients and pigments off Baja California during November 2002

We have estimated the spatial variability of phytoplankton specific absorption coefficients (a* _ph ) in the water column of the California Current System during November 2002, taking into account the variability in pigment composition and phytoplankton community structure and size. Oligotrophic conditions (surface Chl < 0.2 mg m⁻³) dominated offshore, while mesotrophic conditions (surface Chl 0.2 to 2.0 mg m⁻³) where found inshore. The specific absorption coefficient at 440 [a* _ph (440)] ranged from 0.025–0.281 m²mg⁻¹ while at 675 nm [a* _ph (675)] it varied between 0.014 and 0.087 m²mg⁻¹. The implementation of a size index based on HPLC data showed the community structure was dominated by picoplankton. This would reduce the package effect in the variability of a* _ph (675). Normalized a _ph curves were classified in two groups according to their shape, separating all spectra with peaks between 440 and 550 nm as the second group. Most samples in the first group were from surface layers, while the second group were from the deep chlorophyll maximum or deeper. Accessory photoprotective pigments (APP) tended to decrease with depth and accessory photosynthetic pigments (APS) to increase, indicating the importance of photoprotective mechanisms in surface layers and adaptation to low light at depth. Samples with higher ratios of APP:APS (>0.4) were considered as phytoplankton adapted to high irradiances, and lower ratios (<0.26) as adapted to low irradiances. We found a good relationship between APP:APS and a* _ph (440) for the deeper layer (DCM and below), but no clear evidence of the factors causing the variability of a* _ph (440) in the upper layer.     

Phytoplankton pigment change as a photoadaptive response to light variation caused by tidal cycle in Ariake Bay,Japan

Underwater light environment and photosynthetic accessory pigments were investigated in Ariake Bay in order to understand how change of the pigments occurs in response to the tidal-induced changes in underwater light conditions. We hypothesize that phytoplankton increases photo-protective pigments and decreases light-harvesting pigments under higher light condition in the mixed layer caused by tidal cycle. Contribution rates of non-phytoplankton particles (a _nph (400–700)) for light attenuation coefficient (K _d ) was highest (32–85%), and those of phytoplankton particles (a _ph (400–700)), dissolved organic matter (a _g (400–700)) and water were 6–32, 6–21 and 5–23%, respectively. Mean K _d was higher during the spring tide (0.55 ± 0.23 m⁻¹) than the neap tide (0.44 ± 0.16 m⁻¹), and the K _d difference was caused by the substances resuspension due to the tidal current. In contrast, ratios of photo-protective pigments (diadinoxanthin and diatoxanthin) per chlorophyll a ((DD+DT)/Chl a) were higher during the neap tide (0.10 ± 0.03 mg mg-Chl a ⁻¹) than the spring tide (0.08 ± 0.03 mg mg-Chl a ⁻¹). And there was significant positive correlation between (DD+DT)/Chl a and mean relative PAR in the mixed layer ($ \overline {I_{mix} } $ \overline {I_{mix} } ). Moreover, there was significant negative correlation between ratios of light-harvesting pigments (fucoxanthin) per Chl a (Fuco/Chl a) and $ \overline {I_{mix} } $ \overline {I_{mix} } . These results suggested that phytoplankton in Ariake Bay increase photo-protective pigments and decrease light-harvesting pigments in the higher light condition of less turbid, shallower mixed layer during neap tide than spring tide.     

Modeling and experimental research of turbulent jet propagation in the stratified environment of coastal water areas

The results of model calculations and experimental research of turbulent jet propagation in a stratified environment with reference to the Sand Island wastewater outfall (Hawaii) are considered. The jet’s emergence and initial dilution were estimated on the basis of model calculations and experimental data of the stratified environment characteristics in 2003–2004. The reason for the appearance of the bidirectional quasi-isopycnic structure in the waste and ocean water mixing area was clarified, and an analysis of the TS index was carried out. The jet’s features as calculated from the model and obtained from measurements with hydrophysical and hydrooptical instrumentation were found to closely correspond. The effects of the tides and hydrophysical conditions on the waste water’s turbulent jet characteristics (the jet’s floating-up depth level) have been revealed. The outcomes of the study corroborate the efficiency of the model as a tool for research of deep outfall turbulent jet propagation in the stratified environment of coastal water areas.     

Distribution of zooplankton in the Barents Sea in August 2006

Forty-two mesozooplankton samples were collected in the Barents Sea during the cruise of the R/V Dal’nie Zelentsy in August 2006. In total, 72 taxa of planktic animals were found. The minimal average mesozooplankton abundance was noted in the Murmansk coastal waters in the south of the sea (154 ind./m³), while the maximal was noted in the Arctic waters (1533 ind./m³). The average wet biomass varied from 32 to 830 mg/m³. The zooplankton abundance and biomass exceeded the relevant average long-term parameters by 1.5–2 times and by 1.2–1.4 times, respectively. The mean biodiversity (Shannon’s index) of the zooplankton communities was low: H′ = 1.62 ± 0.104 bit/ind.     

Photosynthesis-irradiance relationship of phytoplankton and primary production in the vicinity of Kuroshio warm core ring in spring

The light-saturated maximum value (P ^B _max) and initial slope (α) of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curve were examined in a warm streamer, a cold streamer and a warm core ring off the Sanriku area in the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean during an ADEOS/OCTS Sanriku field campaign in early May 1997. BothP ^B _max and α were within the ranges of temperate populations. A regional difference was apparent inP ^B _max: populations in the warm streamer tended to show higher value ranging between 1.92 and 4.74 mgC (mgChla)⁻¹h⁻¹ than those in the cold streamer and the warm core ring (1.35–2.87 mgC (mgChla)⁻¹h⁻¹). A depth variation was also observed in α in both the warm streamer and the warm core ring: shallow populations tended to have lower α than deep populations. The depth variations in bothP ^B _max and α resulted in a lower light intensity of the light saturation in a deeper population than that of a shallower one. These depth-related variations in the P-E parameters were likely a manifestation of “shade-adaptation” of photosynthesis. Photoinhibition was not observed over in situ surface light intensity varying below ca 1600 μmol photon m⁻²s⁻¹. Water-column primary productivity was biooptically estimated to be 233 to 949 mgC m⁻²d⁻¹ using vertical distributions of the P-E parameters, chlorophylla, phytoplankton light absorption and underwater irradiance. Applicability of surface data sets for estimation of water-column productivity is discussed.     

Inertial Instability of Arbitrarily Meandering Currents Governed by the Eccentrically Cyclogeostrophic Equation

Using natural coordinates, we have derived a criterion for the inertial instability of arbitrarily meandering currents. Such currents, governed by the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic equation, are adopted as the basic current field for the parcel method. We assume that any virtual displacement which is given to a water parcel moving in the basic field has no influence on this field. From the conservation of mechanical energy for a virtual displacement we derive an inertial instability frequency ω _m = [(f + 2u/r)Z]^0.5 for the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current, where f is the Coriolis parameter, u the velocity (always positive), r the radius of curvature of a streamline (negative for an anticyclonic meander), and Z the vertical component of absolute vorticity. If ω _m ² is negative, the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current becomes unstable. Although the conventional, centrifugal instability criterion, derived from the conservation of angular momentum in a circularly symmetric current field, has a certain meaning for a monopolar vortex, it contains a radial shear vorticity that is difficult to use in arbitrarily meandering currents. The new criterion ω _m ² contains a lateral shear vorticity that is applicable to arbitrarily meandering currents. Examining instabilities of concentric rings with radii of 50–100 km, we consider reasons why the anticyclonic supersolid rotation has been very much less frequently observed than the cyclonic supersolid rotation, despite a prediction of some common stability and a rapid change in radial velocity gradient for the former. Classifying eccentric streamlines into the large and small curvature-gradient types, we point out that the large-gradient curvature in anticyclonic rings is apt to be unstable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

变形假单胞菌(Pseudomonas plecoglossicida)核酸适配体的SELEX筛选

变形假单胞菌(Pseudomonas plecoglossicida)是大黄鱼内脏白点病的主要致病菌。核酸适配体,因其亲和力高、特异性好等多个优点,在微生物检测等多个领域都有较好的应用前景。以变形假单胞菌为靶目标,采用SELEX筛选方法,从高频序列中筛选获得了变形假单胞菌的5个核酸适配体,测定了这些核酸适配体对变形假单胞菌的亲和特异性及其亲和常数(Kd)和最大亲和力(Am),并对其二级结构进行了分析研究。结果表明,这5个核酸适配体对变形假单胞菌的亲和力是其他非目标菌(嗜水气单胞菌、溶藻弧菌、哈维氏弧菌、大肠杆菌、迟钝爱德华氏菌、铜绿假单胞菌)的10倍以上,体现出了较好的亲和特异性。测定了5个核酸适配体(#1、#2、#3、#4、#5)的Kd和Am,相应的Kd值分别为(25.77±6.11)、(7.14±1.86)、(19.59±3.01)、(83.22±22.45)、(34.31±8.76) nmol/L,Am值分别为(789.23±38.46)、(1392.27±58.03)、(3012.50±106.19)、(1457.99±171.32)、(1070.91±70.16) nmol/...     

Method for the evaluation of the spectral values of underwater quantum irradiance within the band of photosynthetically active radiation according to the depth of visibility of a Secchi disk

On the basis of the data of optical investigations performed in the Black Sea, we develop a method for the evaluation of the spectral values of underwater quantum irradiance within the band of photosynthetically active radiation according to the depth of visibility of a Secchi disk and the intensity of illumination of the sea in luxes. The method is based on the use of the correlations between the following optical parameters: of the vertical daylight attenuation factor α with the depth of visibility of a Secchi disk and of the spectral values of α(λ) within the band of photosynthetically active radiation with α(λ_min) for sea waters. This method is applicable in the winter-spring period when the seasonal thermocline is absent, the upper layers of the sea are mixed, and the vertical distribution of α is uniform. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Uncertainties in global mapping of Argo drift data at the parking level

We used Argo float drift data to estimate average ocean currents at 1000 dbar depth from early 2000 to early 2010. Our estimates cover the global oceans, except for marginal seas and ice-covered regions, at a resolution of 1 degree in latitude and longitude. The estimated flow field satisfies the horizontal boundary condition of no flow through the topography, and is in geostrophic balance. We also estimated the uncertainty in the average flow field, which had a typical magnitude of 0.03 ms⁻¹. The uncertainty is relatively large (>0.03 ms⁻¹ in both the zonal and meridional directions) near the Equator and in the Southern Ocean. The array bias, which is the bias due to the horizontal gradient in the spatial density of the float data, is generally negligible, with an average magnitude outside the equatorial region of 0.007 ms⁻¹, becoming relatively large (>0.01 ms⁻¹) only near the coastal regions. The measurement uncertainty is assumed to be spatially uniform and includes errors due to the Argos positioning system, internal clock drift, unknown surface drift before submerging or after surfacing, and unknown drifts during ascent and descent between the surface and the parking depth. We found that the overall uncertainty was not sensitive to the assumed value of the measurement uncertainty (ɛ _m )^1/2 when (ɛ _m )^1/2 < 0.01 ms⁻¹ but it increased with (ɛ _m )^1/2 for (ɛ _m )^1/2 > 0.01 ms⁻¹.     

An uncertainty model for deep ocean single beam and multibeam echo sounder data

Comparing single beam and multibeam echo sounder data where surveys overlap we find that: 95% of multibeam measurements are repeatable to within 0.47% of depth; older single beam data can be at least as accurate as multibeam; single beam and multibeam profiles show excellent agreement at full-wavelengths longer than 4 km; archival sounding errors are not Gaussian; 95% of archival soundings in the northwest Atlantic are accurate to within 1.6% of depth; the 95th percentile error is about five times greater in pre-1969 data than in post-1968 data; many of the largest errors are located over large seafloor slopes, where small navigation errors can lead to large depth errors. Our uncertainty model has the form σ ² = a ² + (bz)² + (cs)², where 2σ is approximately the 95th percentile error, z is the depth, s is the slope, and a, b, c are constants we determine separately for pre-1969 and post-1968 data.     

海南省海岸带典型区域海水入侵现状评价

基于海南省东部和南部海岸带地区地下水现场监测数据和室内水化学测定数据,研究了各水化学指标间的相关性,分析了区域海水入侵现状。研究结果表明地下水中Cl~–与Na~+的变异系数较高,与矿化度(TDS)具有强的相关性;以m(Cl~–)(m表示质量浓度)和TDS分别作为评价因子开展了海水入侵现状评价,结果表明研究区域内地下水未受到海水入侵的影响;m(Na~+)/m(Cl~–)、 m(Cl~–)/m(HCO_3~–)、m(Cl~–)/m(SO_4~(2–))、m(Ca~(2+))/m(Na~+)、m(Ca~(2+))/m(Mg~(2+))、钠吸附比(SAR)与m(Cl~–)的相关性分析结果表明m(Na~+)/m(Cl~–)、m(Ca~(2+))/m(Na~+)、m(Ca~(2+))/m(Mg~(2+))以及SAR4个参数可以作为海南省海水入侵判定的评价因子。研究结果对建设海南省"国际旅游岛"战略目标,指导当地合理利用地下水具有参考价值。     

Pumping rates of the mud shrimpCallianassa japonica

Pumping rate of a mud shrimp,Callianassa japonica, in its burrow was measured by continuous monitoring of dye concentration in the burrow water. Measurement of dilution in two directions from stained overlying seawater to normal burrow water andvice versa, gave no significant difference in results. The rate of exchange (v) of burrow water was estimated from,v=(u _t−u ₀)V/(m−u _t−1)t, whereV is volume of burrow water,u ₀,u _t−1 andu _tis dye concentration of burrow water at time 0,t−1 andt, respectively, andm is dye concentration of overlying water. The pumping rate ranged from 0.63 to 5.46 ml min⁻¹, which corresponded to a turnover time for the burrow water of 7–51 min. Short term changes in the pumping rate were correlated to intermittent behaviour of the shrimp in the burrow.     

Spatio-temporal variability of the relative transparency of Black Sea waters

The Black Sea relative transparency database covering the period from 1922 to 1993 is described. Seasonal and interannual variabilities of the Secchi disc depthz _σ are studied, along with the meteorological, hydrophysical and biological parameters affecting it. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Influence of non-photosynthetic pigments on light absorption and quantum yield of photosynthesis in the western equatorial Pacific and the Subarctic North Pacific

Regional variations in the contribution of non-photosynthetic pigments (ā _np^*) to the total light absorption of phytoplankton (ā _ph^*) and its influence on the maximum quantum yield of photosynthesis (φ _m) were investigated. In the western equatorial Pacific, the surface ā _np^* : ā _ph^* ratio was higher in the western warm pool than that in the upwelling region. This difference appears to be attributable to severe nitrate depletion and higher percentage of prokaryotes, which can accumulate very high concentrations of zeaxanthin in the western warm pool. In the subarctic North Pacific, the ā _np^* : ā _ph^* ratio was expected to be higher in the Alaskan Gyre where the thermocline is sharper and iron limitation may possibly be more severe than in the Western Subarctic Gyre. However, the ratio was actually higher in the Western Subarctic Gyre, contradictory to our expectations. This east-west variation appears to be attributable to changes in the taxonomic composition; cyanobacteria were more abundant in the Western Subarctic Gyre. The values of ā _np^* : ā _ph^* and its vertical variations were relatively small in the subarctic North Pacific compared to those in the western equatorial Pacific. These inter-regional variations appear to be attributable to the lower solar radiation intensity, smaller percentage of cyanobacteria, and relatively strong vertical mixing in the subarctic North Pacific. The spatial variations in ā _np^* : ā _ph^* significantly influence φ _m. In comparison with φ _m based on the total light absorption (φ _{m ph}), the values corrected for the contribution of non-photosynthetic pigments (φ _{m ps}) showed an increase in both the western equatorial Pacific and the subarctic North Pacific.     

考洲洋牡蛎养殖海域海-气界面CO2交换通量的时空变化

根据2018年7月、11月和2019年1月、4月对广东考洲洋牡蛎养殖海域进行4个季节调查获得的p H、溶解无机碳(DIC)、水温、盐度、溶解氧(DO)及叶绿素a(Chla)等数据,估算该区域表层海水溶解无机碳体系各分量的浓度、初级生产力(PP)、表层海水CO₂分压[p(CO₂)]和海-气界面CO₂交换通量(FCO₂),分析牡蛎养殖活动对养殖区碳循环的影响。结果表明:牡蛎养殖区表层海水中Chl a、DIC、HCO₃^–和PP显著低于非养殖区;养殖淡季表层海水中pH、DO、DIC、HCO₃^–、和CO₃^2–显著大于养殖旺季,养殖旺季的p(CO₂)和FCO₂显著大于养殖淡季。牡蛎养殖区表层海水夏季、秋季、冬季和春季的海-气界面CO₂交换通量FCO₂平均值分别是(42.04±9.56)、(276...