基于人工降雨模拟试验的坡面水文连通性

为揭示降水入渗时坡面水文连通性特征以及坡度和雨强等对水文连通性的影响,研究基于人工降雨模拟试验,分别采用结构性指标径流长度（Flowlength,l_F）和功能性指标相对地表连接函数（Relative Surface Connection Function, F_RC）分析不同坡度坡面（5°、15°、25°;面积为150 cm×50 cm）在不同雨强（25 mm/h、50 mm/h、70 mm/h和86 mm/h）条件下的水文连通性。研究结果表明:坡面水文连通结构主要由l_F为0~100 mm的径流路径组成,其栅格频率高达90%以上,而l_F为100~500 mm的栅格频率为3%~8%。水文连通性的迅速发展主要集中在降水事件的开始阶段,而一定阶段以后入渗速率与地表储水速率基本持平,水文连通性呈现出较为稳定的发展趋势。坡度增大整体上有利于水文连通性的发展。5°坡面对应水文连通面积比率整体小于其他坡度。由于雨强增大到一定范围时将增加地表糙率,从而阻碍水文连通性的发展,研究中仅25 mm/h对应水文连通性明显区别于其他雨强,而其他雨强间则在多数情况下水文连通性差别较小。     

Factors affecting performance of permeable groins in channel bank erosion control

The factors affecting the performance of permeable groins are investigated by an analytical approach supplemented with field observation. These factors are broadly divided into three classes: (1) the properties of the soil where the groin is embedded; (2) the flow characteristics of the river channel that are imposed on the groin; and (3) the makeup of the groins. Factors relating to the properties of the soil and flow are then combined into an expression for the factor of safety against failure by overturning. This enables a deterministic sensitivity technique involving partial differentiation of the factor of safety with respect to each contributory factor to be applied. The results obtained show that depth of the groin is the most critical factor that determines groin stability. The depth is followed by flow velocity and discharge, unit weight of water, unit weight of soil, and cohesion. This order of importance agrees with the analysis of observed groin performance in a pilot project at Kaiama in the Niger delta.     

黄土边坡降雨冲刷模型试验研究

西部黄土地区高边坡多采用骨架结构进行防护,但其服役期间容易产生土体侵蚀破坏,造成防护效力的局部丧失,严重者甚至可诱发垮塌灾害。通过开展人工模拟降雨冲蚀模型试验,对比分析了裸坡和骨架边坡的坡面冲蚀过程、含沙量、径流量及累计冲蚀量,探讨了骨架结构的防护效果,厘清了骨架关键部位处的坡面冲蚀规律,揭示了强降雨诱发骨架防护边坡侵蚀破坏机制。试验结果表明：骨架结构具有一定防护效力,但其框格边缘土体容易侵蚀破坏;随着降雨时间增长,裸坡和骨架边坡的含沙量、径流量及累计冲蚀量均逐渐增加。相比于裸坡,冲蚀60 min时骨架边坡的含沙量降低25%(坡比1 ︰ 1.5),21.4%(坡比1 ︰ 1.75),径流量降低33.6%(坡比1 ︰ 1.5),31.4%(坡比1 ︰ 1.75),累计冲蚀量降低43.6%(坡比1 ︰ 1.5),40.0%(坡比1 ︰ 1.75);骨架关键部位,尤其是尖角边缘土体所承受的雨水冲刷作用较强,其冲蚀演化历程归纳为：溅蚀-片蚀-细沟侵蚀-切沟侵蚀(初次冲蚀),或溅蚀-片蚀-切沟侵蚀(再次冲蚀);骨架结构可限制土颗粒运移、削弱径流冲蚀,起到截流、挡水及分流作用,但也会在骨架关键部位处产生较为明显的边缘汇流现象,容易使得骨架支撑土体的侵蚀破坏,造成骨架结构的局部悬空。研究成果可为黄土地区路堤边坡拱形骨架防护的优化设计与现场施工提供参考。     

Simulation and modeling of rainfall radar measurements for hydrological applications

A procedure is described for the simulation of rainfall radar reflectivity (absolute and differential) measurements by dual linear polarization meteorological radars. The basic requirement that the proposed procedure aims at satisfying is that radar data obtained at the end of the process be correlated in a physically plausible manner to the rainfall field at ground, the latter being generated by means of a stochastic space-time rainfall model. The main goal of the model is to give the possibility to easily check the accuracy of radar rainfall estimates derived by means of procedures and algorithms aimed at minimizing or compensating for the effects of measurement errors associated with several types of meteorological events, with particular reference to requirements of hydrogeological forecast systems. Within the limits imposed by the validity of the adopted model, an analysis was carried out indicating general criteria that may be adopted to achieve a better accuracy in rainfall estimates and a full exploitation of the advantages offered by the radar dual polarization measurement technique.     

渗透性与降雨强度对堆积层滑坡稳定性的影响

本文基于非饱和渗流理论及非饱和土的Fredlund双应力变量强度理论,对一沿岩土接触面滑动的堆积层滑坡模型,分别进行了8种条件下的降雨入渗数值模拟试验,研究了不同土体渗透性及降雨强度对滑坡稳定性的影响。结果表明:(1)堆积层滑坡的稳定性与土体的渗透性有密切关系,在降雨后的短期内,土体渗透性越好,滑面孔隙水压力升高越明显,滑坡的稳定性降低程度越大;(2)降雨期间,埋深较浅的滑面,入渗雨水能够较快到达,对滑坡稳定性的影响较大;(3)在相同的降雨时间内,降雨强度越大,滑坡稳定性降低速率越快;(4)降雨强度影响着滑坡发生的滞后性,在降雨总量一定的条件下,若降雨强度较大,雨停后,滑坡稳定性继续下降的程度较大;(5)降雨总量控制着滑坡的最终稳定性。     

Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total foodgrain yield over India

The study focuses on understanding the variations of precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on Kharif and Rabi foodgrain yield over India. Total foodgrain yield over India during Kharif (summer) season is directly affected by variations in the summer monsoon precipitation (June–September). An increase (decrease) in rainfall is generally associated with an increase (decrease) in foodgrain yield. A similar correspondence during the Rabi (winter) foodgrain yield is not evident. The Rabi crop is not directly affected by variations in the post-monsoon precipitation (October–December) alone, also the summer season precipitation influences the Rabi crop through water and soil moisture availability over many parts of India. Though the reduction of rainfall activity during the entire summer monsoon season leads to reduction in crop yields, the occurrence of prolonged rainfall breaks also causes adverse effect on the crop growth resulting in reduced crop yields.     

Impact of urbanization on hydrological processes under different precipitation scenarios

Natural Hazards - According to analysing the trends of land use changes in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in the past 30 years and precipitation in the last 50 years, nine...     

基于有效降雨强度和逻辑回归的降雨型 滑坡预测模型

以湖南省张家界市桑植县为研究区,在全面分析近30年降雨及滑坡数据的基础上,对滑坡及滑坡数量与降雨因子的关系开展了统计分析研究。首先确定了区域最佳有效降雨衰减系数,同时分别按滑坡规模、坡度、厚度大小统计了降雨与历史滑坡信息,得出有效降雨强度（I）与持续时间（D）散点图,由此确定各不同概率下诱发滑坡的区域有效降雨强度阈值,并进行了滑坡灾害危险性等级划分。进而,利用部分样本数据进行逻辑回归分析,得到了该研究区的滑坡发生概率预测方程,并给出了降雨强度临界值定量表达式,最后选用实际降雨诱发滑坡事件与未诱发滑坡事件进行对比验证。结果表明,文章所建立的滑坡预测模型准确性较高,预测情况与实际情况比较吻合。     

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models

The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET.     

Assessing the impacts of rainfall intensity and urbanization on storm runoff in an arid catchment

In the past few decades, rapid urbanization has occurred in many regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia due to increasing population and urban development. Additionally, the effects of global warming on rainfall characteristics have been observed. This rapid change in urbanization and climate change has cause significant changes in the nature of land surfaces and rainfall patterns, which affect the runoff process and the amount of surface runoff during floods. This study investigated the effect of urbanization and rainfall intensity for Hafr Al-Batin watershed located in Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, a hydrologic model, HEC-HMS, was adopted to simulate the flow of different rainfall intesities and urbanization levels. Simulated results showed that for a 100-year storm, a 24-h duration, and an urbanization level of 80%, the peak flow was 213% higher than the estimated current peak and the runoff volume was 112% higher than the current runoff volume. These results show a strong linear correlation between the level of urbanization and both peak discharge and runoff volume. Furthermore, the results indicate that for short return periods, the peak flow is more sensitive to the level of urbanization compared to long periods.     

连续降雨下不同砾石含量工程堆积体土壤侵蚀

为探究砾石对工程堆积体土壤侵蚀的影响与其作用机制,通过室内模拟降雨研究了连续降雨下不同砾石含量的重壤质堆积体水蚀过程。结果表明:①堆积体砾石含量增加,坡面产流历时延长,产流率线性减小,土壤剥蚀率降低;②连续降雨下,堆积体所含砾石主要通过对坡面产流历时、坡面产流率、砾石覆盖率的多重影响发挥减沙作用,主成分回归方程可表达多个变量与平均土壤剥蚀率的关系;③一定砾石含量下,堆积体坡面砾石覆盖率随表土的剥离而增大,导致土壤剥蚀率呈指数函数递减趋势,并与累积土壤侵蚀总量存在较好的函数关系。工程堆积体所含砾石对土壤侵蚀程度的削减可为生产建设项目下垫面水土保持治理提供重要参考。     

Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method

Natural Hazards - Flash flood disaster, with strong suddenness and tremendous destructiveness, is one of the most severe natural disasters in China that seriously threaten the lives and property...     

水土保持措施对流域泥沙输移比的影响

以黄土高原无定河流域为例研究了水土保持措施对流域泥沙输移比的影响。水土保持措施极大地改变了流域泥沙的侵蚀、输移和堆积过程,因而改变了流域的泥沙收支关系。在天然状况下,无定河流域的泥沙输移比接近10。20世纪60年代后流域内大规模地展开水土保持工作以来,泥沙输移比急剧下降为0.2～0.4。泥沙输移比的变化,主要是由于流域内人为沉积汇的形成所致。这种人为沉积汇表现为水库、淤地坝的拦沙作用,导致了泥沙输移比大幅度减小。在目前状况下,人工沉积汇的拦沙作用相当于坡面措施减蚀作用的2 4～6.3倍,表明坡面治理措施的有效性尚有待提高,并亟待在生态环境建设中予以加强。     

降雨形式对毛细阻滞覆盖层防渗性能的影响研究

毛细阻滞覆盖层的防渗性能对于控制渗滤液和减轻垃圾填埋场周边环境的污染具有重要意义,因此得到广泛研究。前人在研究中多采用恒定降雨强度来模拟降雨气象条件,而对降雨形式对毛细阻滞覆盖层防渗性能的影响关注较少。因此,采用自主研发的土柱降雨入渗试验系统,分别对短时强降雨和长时弱降雨两种降雨情况下,降雨形式对毛细阻滞覆盖层防渗性能的影响开展了研究,并揭示了最不利降雨形式。同时,采用SEEP/W软件对各试验工况进行数值模拟,以使模拟结果与试验结果能够相互印证。研究结果表明：试验结果与模拟结果基本一致,最大误差不大于3%;在短时强降雨情况下,降雨形式仅对覆盖层上部的体积含水率和孔隙水压力有较大影响;而在长时弱降雨条件下,降雨形式对整个覆盖层的体积含水率和孔隙水压力均有显著影响;降雨形式对覆盖层突破时间及渗漏量均有影响,前锋型降雨的突破时间最短,产生的渗漏量最大,后锋型降雨的突破时间最长,产生的渗漏量最小;前锋型降雨更易造成覆盖层突破失效而产生较大的渗漏量,为最不利降雨形式。该研究结果可为毛细阻滞覆盖层设计提供参考依据。     

Impact of satellite soundings on the simulation of heavy rainfall associated with tropical depressions

The present study is carried out to examine the impact of temperature and humidity profiles from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) or/and atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) on the numerical simulation of heavy rainfall events over the India. The Pennsylvania State University–National Centre for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation technique is used for the numerical simulations. The heavy rainfall events occurred during October 26–29, 2005, and October 27–30, 2006, were chosen for the numerical simulations. The results showed that there were large differences observed in the initial meteorological fields from control experiment (CNT; without satellite data) and assimilation experiments (MODIS (assimilating MODIS data), AIRS; (assimilating AIRS data); BOTH (assimilating MODIS and AIRS data together)). The assimilation of satellite data (MODIS, AIRS, and BOTH) improved the predicted thermal and moisture structure of the atmosphere when compared to CNT. Among the experiments, the predicted track of tropical depressions from MODIS was closer to the observed track. Assimilation of MODIS data also showed positive impact on the spatial distribution and intensity of predicted rainfall associated with the depressions. The statistical skill scores obtained for different experiments showed that assimilation of satellite data (MODIS, AIRS, and BOTH) improved the rainfall prediction skill when compared to CNT. Root mean square error in quantitative rainfall prediction is less in the experiment which assimilated MODIS data when compared to other experiments.     

土质陡坡降雨侵蚀的数学模型及求解方法

建立了土质陡坡降雨侵蚀的数学模型,模型包括陡坡细沟间坡面流控制方程、变沟宽陡坡细沟流控制方程、陡坡细沟间坡面侵蚀泥沙连续方程及陡坡变沟宽细沟侵蚀泥沙连续方程。通过紊流冲击分布概率确定土壤剥蚀方程,确定了泥沙源/汇项的表达形式及细沟高程与宽度的表达式。通过有限元和有限差分相结合的方法求解该数学模型,利用有限单元法对数学模型的水动力方程、运动方程及泥沙连续方程进行空间上的离散,利用有限差分法解决时间域的问题,得出了顺序求解的数值计算公式及模型数值求解的具体方法和步骤。     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.