Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

A probabilistic framework for quantification of aftershock ground‐motion hazard in California: Methodology and parametric study

This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Switzerland: best estimates and uncertainties

We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M _max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion, which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude 4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity of 1,500 m/s² in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front, with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s² for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s² for 10,000 years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Probabilistic permanent fault displacement hazard via Monte Carlo simulation and its consideration for the probabilistic risk assessment of buried continuous steel pipelines

Permanent fault displacements (PFDs) because of fault ruptures emerging at the surface are critical for seismic design and risk assessment of continuous pipelines. They impose significant compressive and tensile strains to the pipe cross‐section at pipe‐fault crossings. The complexity of fault rupture, inaccurate mapping of fault location and uncertainties in fault‐pipe crossing geometries require probabilistic approaches for assessing the PFD hazard and mitigating pipeline failure risk against PFD. However, the probabilistic approaches are currently waived in seismic design of pipelines. Bearing on these facts, this paper first assesses the probabilistic PFD hazard by using Monte Carlo‐based stochastic simulations whose theory and implementation are given in detail. The computed hazard is then used in the probabilistic risk assessment approach to calculate the failure probability of continuous pipelines under different PFD levels as well as pipe cross‐section properties. Our probabilistic pipeline risk computations consider uncertainties arising from complex fault rupture and geomorphology that result in inaccurate mapping of fault location and fault‐pipe crossings. The results presented in this paper suggest the re‐evaluation of design provisions in current pipeline design guidelines to reduce the seismic risk of these geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

GIS‐assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno,Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run‐out

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run‐out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1·2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 10⁴ and 10⁵ m³. Flow mobility ratios (ΔH/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower‐most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0·27 and 0·09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run‐out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0·4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.