半年度地震趋势数值预测

采用"自激励门限自回归模型"(SETAR)对山西、河北平原带及郯庐带1970年以来半年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算,给出了1998年以来山西、河北平原带及郯庐带半年度最高预测震级。结果表明,该模型对半年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果,这种建模方法有效,模型可信。     

Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.     

Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.     

基于数值模拟和地震活动性统计的混合地震预测: 在中国地震科学实验场的应用

地震数值预测是近年来最为前沿的科学研究问题之一,但是大部分地震数值预测的探索都受困于数值模拟步长的问题.本文引入混合预测方法,探索了较短预测时长的地震数值预测方法,并在中国地震科学实验场区中进行应用.该混合预测方法主要建立在活动块体理论和构造力学分析的基础上,利用数值模拟推测未来长时间的应力变化量,并引入上一次7级地震之后数十年间,中等强度地震同震应力的影响,最后通过重分类和加权,在应力变化量上叠加年尺度小地震活动异常的统计,从而实现区域地震危险程度的混合评估.基于该方法,我们将地震数值预测的预测时间尺度缩短到年尺度,以年为单位滚动预测了中国地震科学实验场自2021—2030年或更长时间段内可能出现中强地震的区域.2022年芦山6.1级地震、2021年漾濞6.4级地震、2021年泸州6.0级地震和2022年泸定6.8级地震均发生在危险性较高的区域,而2022年马尔康6.0级地震则不在预测区域内.本文展示的混合预测尝试为地震数值预测研究提供了一个可供参考的例证,也为解决数值预测步长控制难的问题提供了一个可能的探索途径.

     

平抚社会恐震心理化解预报科普困扰

一次具有社会影响的地震发生之后,很多人会问为什么,意即在这个地方、这个节骨眼儿,为啥会发生这样大小的地震?为及时回应社会关切,地震分析预报工作者或专家往往尽其所能在第一时间给出比较科学的解释,诸如"余震说""构造说""能量说".可是不少公众并不买账,提出更多问题或多方质疑,甚至伴随讽刺和调侃.例如,2020年"7?12...     

Loss forecasting of earthquake fire based on radial basis function network

Introduction The earthquake fire is one of main hazards in subsequent hazards of earthquake, which caused much severer damage than the ground motion itself. So it is significant to evaluate and predict loss of earthquake fire as a part of hazard of earthq…     

Database application platform for earthquake numerical simulation

Introduction In recent years, all kinds of observation networks of seismology have been established, which have been continuously producing numerous digital information. In addition, there are many study results about 3D velocity structure model and tectonic model of crust （Huang and Zhao, 2006; Huang et al, 2003; Li and Mooney, 1998）, which are valuable for studying the inner structure of the earth and earthquake preparation process. It is badly needed to combine the observed data, experimental study and theoretical analyses results by the way of numerical simulation and develop a database and a corresponding application platform to be used by numerical simulation, and is also a significant way to promote earthquake prediction.     

收集地震参考事件的研究进展

简要介绍了参考事件的定义及其分类,并对收集GT5参考事件的理论方法和标准做了简单的说明。文章指出,参考事件的用途主要在于获取经验走时,验证速度模型和计算走时,提供可靠的地震信息。如何收集更多的地震参考事件是当今国际地震学界热衷的研究问题之一。文中讨论了如何在中国大尺度范围内有效地获取GT5参考事件,并希望在中国能尽快地推进此项工作的进行。     

海底地震有限断层破裂模型对近场海啸数值预报的影响

快速准确的海啸源模型是近场海啸精确预警的关键.尽管目前还没有办法直接对其进行正演定量计算,但是可以通过多源地震、海啸观测数据进行反演或联合反演推算.不同的海啸源可能导致不同的预警结论,了解不同类型海啸源适用性、评估海啸源特征差异对近场海啸的影响,无论对于海啸预警还是海啸模拟研究尤为重要.本文评估分析了6种不同同震断层模型对2011年3月11日日本东北地震海啸近场数值预报的影响,重点对比分析了有限断层模型与均一滑动场模型对近场海啸产生、传播、淹没特征的影响及各自的误差.研究表明:近场海啸波能量分布主要取决于海啸源分布特征,特别是走向角的差异对海啸能量分布影响较大;有限断层模型对海啸灾害最为严重的39°N以南沿岸地区的最大海啸爬坡高度明显优于均一滑动场模型结果;综合对比DART浮标、GPS浮标及近岸潮位站共32个站次的海啸波幅序列结果发现有限断层模型整体平均绝对/相对误差比均一滑动场模型平均误差要低,其中Fujii海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差最小,分别是0.56 m和26.71%.UCSB海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差次之.3个均一滑动场模型中USGSCMT海啸源模拟精度最高.相对于深海、浅海观测站,有限断层模型比均一滑动场模型对近岸观测站计算精度更高.海啸源误差具有显著的方向性,可能与反演所采用的波形数据的代表性有关;谱分析结果表明Fujii海啸源对在12至60 min主频波谱的模拟要优于UCSB海啸源.海啸源中很难真实反映海底地震破裂过程,然而通过联合反演海啸波形数据推算海啸源的方法可以快速确定海啸源,并且最大限度的降低地震破裂过程与海啸产生的不确定性带来的误差.     

中国各省区地震烈度衰减关系模型甄别

收集整理全国22个省、5个自治区、4个直辖市的烈度衰减关系资料,得到182个烈度衰减关系公式,与现用地震快速评估系统、“十五”评估系统中烈度衰减关系参数进行对比,可知:(1)北京、上海、河北、吉林、甘肃、福建、江苏、海南、贵州、安徽、湖南、浙江、黑龙江、宁夏、天津、广西、辽宁、山东、江西、广东、陕西等地区的烈度衰减关系具有优化性;(2)四川、云南、内蒙古等省区地域性广,地震频发,沿用已有烈度分区结果;(3)新疆、青海、西藏、内蒙古中部、重庆、湖北、河南、山西等地有多个衰减公式,依次甄别,优选适用对应区域的衰减关系公式,以达到优化参数的目的,为震后影响场快速预估提供科学依据。     

交通系统震害预测中瓦砾堆积问题的改进

在分析总结交通系统震害预测中的瓦砾堆积计算等相关问题的基础上，对由瓦砾阻塞计算道路通行概率的方法进行了改进，提出了有效宽度的概念和瓦砾阻塞量密度的计算方法。并以唐山地震中跃进小区和泉州市湖心街路段为实例进行计算，并与已有的方法进行对比，结果表明了改进后方法的合理性。     

The numerical simulation of thesource development of the Tangshan earthquake

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年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状

对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.     

基于ETAS模型对青海地区余震预测效能评估的研究

为系统评估青海地区余震短期发生率的预测效能,以及构建适合地震活动特点的余震早期预测策略和预测指标体系,利用国际上当前较为前沿的时间序列ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区2009年以来的8个地震的早期余震序列参数进行拟合,并利用N-test检验方法对预测结果进行回溯性的效能评估。研究表明:ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区的余震发生率具有很好的预测能力,建议采用3天的预测时间窗,且对序列早期阶段进行应用,或可取得"最佳"的预测效果。     

Evaluation of four hydrological models for operational flood forecasting in a Canadian Prairie watershed

The complexities of the Prairie watersheds, including potholes, drainage interconnectivities, changing land-use patterns, dynamic watershed boundaries and hydro-meteorological factors, have made hydrological modelling on Prairie watersheds one of the most complex task for hydrologists and operational hydrological forecasters. In this study, four hydrological models (WATFLOOD, HBV-EC, HSPF and HEC-HMS) were developed, calibrated and tested for their efficiency and accuracy to be used as operational flood forecasting tools. The Upper Assiniboine River, which flows into the Shellmouth Reservoir, Canada, was selected for the analysis. The performance of the models was evaluated by the standard statistical methods: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute relative error and deviation of runoff volumes. The models were evaluated on their accuracy in simulating the observed runoff for calibration and verification periods (2005–2015 and 1994–2004, respectively) and also their use in operational forecasting of the 2016 and 2017 runoff.     

静海地震台地磁加卸载响应比与邻区地震关系研究

研究分析了静海地磁台2002～2006年观测资料的加卸载响应比异常与邻区ML 4.0以上地震之间的关系,提出了适用于静海地磁台的地震分析预报异常形态特征和阈值判据.     

寿命周期成本法评价城市建筑物地震风险

寿命周期成本（LCC）法是应用于地震灾害风险控制研究的新方法,其与折现现金流（DCF）法的整合可以有效地评价资产价值,比较研究地震风险控制与抗震减灾对策的投资效果,有助于选择地震风险控制的最佳方案。探讨了LCC法以及其与DCF法评价建筑物地震灾害风险的数学模型、解析方法及其在评价建筑物地震灾害风险中的应用。LCC法评价城市建筑物地震灾害风险有坚实的理论基础和广阔的应用前景。     

两种短期概率预测模型在2017年九寨沟7.0级地震中的应用和比较研究

本文选用"传染型余震序列"（ETAS）模型和Reasenberg-Jones（R-J）模型,分别对九寨沟MS7.0地震序列的模型参数稳定性、余震发生率预测和余震概率预测进行了比较研究,并利用"地震信息增益"（IGPE）、N-test和T-test检验方法对预测效果进行了评价.研究结果表明,ETAS模型和R-J模型的序列参数分别在震后t2=2.0天和t2=1.50天后趋于稳定,此次九寨沟MS7.0地震序列的衰减较为正常;对未来1天的余震发生率预测和余震概率连续滑动预测表明,ETAS模型给出的余震发生率和余震概率数值均低于R-J模型预测结果;IGPE结果显示,ETAS模型在95%的置信区间上预测效果明显优于R-J模型;统计检验结果表明,在序列参数较不稳定的震后早期阶段,ETAS模型预测失效而R-J模型预测效果较好,在序列参数稳定阶段,ETAS模型预测效果较好而R-J模型预测失效.根据上述分析,在与此次九寨沟MS7.0地震类型相同的地震的余震预测策略上,如可在序列参数不稳定的震后早期阶段使用R-J模型、在此后使用ETAS模型,或可取得较好的预测效果.     

Model averaging versus model selection: estimating design floods with uncertain river flow data

ABSTRACT

This study compares model averaging and model selection methods to estimate design floods, while accounting for the observation error that is typically associated with annual maximum flow data. Model selection refers to methods where a single distribution function is chosen based on prior knowledge or by means of selection criteria. Model averaging refers to methods where the results of multiple distribution functions are combined. Numerical experiments were carried out by generating synthetic data using the Wakeby distribution function as the parent distribution. For this study, comparisons were made in terms of relative error and root mean square error (RMSE) referring to the 1-in-100 year flood. The experiments show that model averaging and model selection methods lead to similar results, especially when short samples are drawn from a highly asymmetric parent. Also, taking an arithmetic average of all design flood estimates gives estimated variances similar to those obtained with more complex weighted model averaging.