Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.     

青海门源M6.9级地震地表破裂特征及区域地震活动趋势分析

据中国地震台网正式测定,2022年1月8日1时45分青海海北州门源县发生6.9级地震,震源深度10 km。此次地震是2016年门源M6.4级地震之后冷龙岭地区再次发生强震活动。此次地震的宏观震中位于距门源县城浩门镇西北50 km的冷龙岭硫磺沟地区,并在硫磺沟—大西沟一带形成规模大且连续性较好的地表破裂。地表调查显示,同震地表破裂的总长度约为23 km,整体走向N40°~85°W,地表破裂主要由雁列的地震鼓包、张裂缝、剪切裂缝等形式组合而成,而且地表伴生了较多规模不等的滑坡、崩塌等次生地质灾害。根据地表破裂的规模、走向及破裂特点等,可将其分为3段：东段（硫磺沟段）,长约10 km,走向N40°~60°W,破裂规模较小,以伴有重力作用的拉张裂缝为主;中段（道沟段）,长约9 km,走向N70°W,破裂规模较大,以发育规模较大的地震鼓包和剪切裂缝为主,而且左旋位移较大;西段（大西沟段）,长约4 km,走向N85°W,此段规模最小,以雁列的拉张裂缝为主。其中—东段一起组成了该破裂带的东支,而西段构成了西支,两者都具有明显的左旋走滑特征,并自东向西破裂整体呈左阶展布,在G227国道以东形成了具有拉张特征的左阶阶区。综合分析表明,此次,地震发生在祁连山块体的祁连−海原活动构造带,发震断裂应为海原左旋走滑断裂带的冷龙岭−托莱山断裂段。结合对祁连−海原构造带1900年以来强地震序列及托莱山断裂的初步研究认为,该构造带的历史地震活动整体具有不断向西发展的趋势,但在哈拉湖和托莱山之间存在较明显的地震空区,因而推断托莱山断裂未来的强震危险性有增强的可能。     

最近20年地震中场地液化现象的回顾与土体液化可能性的评价准则

回顾了1994年美国Northridge地震、1995年日本阪神地震、1999年土耳其Kocaeli地震、1999年台湾集集地震、2008年中国汶川地震、2010年智利Maule地震、2010～2011新西兰Darfield地震及余震、2011年东日本地震中大量的、不同类型的液化实例调查与研究,发现这些地震的液化具有以下特点：（1）罕见的特大地震（Mw9.0）使远离震中300～400 km的新近人工填土发生严重的大规模液化;（2）特大地震（Ms8.0、Mw8.8）使远离震中的低烈度Ⅴ～Ⅵ度地区发生严重液化;（3）海岸、河岸附近地区的新近沉积冲积、湖积土,填筑时间不到50年的含细粒、砂砾人工填土,容易发生严重液化;（4）天然的砂砾土层液化发生严重液化;（5）发生了深达20 m的土层液化现象;（6）松散土层液化后可以恢复到震前状态并再次发生液化;（7）高细粒（粒径≤75 ?m）含量≥50%或高黏粒（粒径≤5 ?m）含量≥25%的低-中塑性土严重液化,对介于类砂土与类黏土之间的过渡性态土,有时地表未见液化现象;（8）液化土层的深度较深或厚度较小时,容易出现地面裂缝而无喷砂现象;有较厚的上覆非液化土层时,场地液化不一定伴随地表破坏。液化实例证明,第四系晚更新世Q3地层可以发生严重液化;黏粒含量不是评价细粒土液化可能性的一个可靠指标;低液限、高含水率的细粒土易发生液化,采用塑性指数PI、含水率wc与液限LL之比作为细粒土液化可能性评价的指标是适宜的。综合Boulanger和Idriss、Bray和Sincio、Seed和Cetin等的液化实例调查与室内试验研究成果,建议细粒土液化可能性的评价准则如下：PI ＜12且wc/LL＞0.85的土为易液化土,12＜PI≤20和/wc/LL≥0.80的土为可液化土;PI ＞20或wc/LL＜0.80的土为不液化土。     

A comparison of the sedimentary records of the 1960 and 2010 great Chilean earthquakes in 17 lakes: Implications for quantitative lacustrine palaeoseismology

Seismically‐induced event deposits embedded in the sedimentary infill of lacustrine basins are highly useful for palaeoseismic reconstructions. Recent, well‐documented, great megathrust earthquakes provide an ideal opportunity to calibrate seismically‐induced event deposits for lakes with different characteristics and located in different settings. This study used 107 short sediment cores to investigate the sedimentary impact of the 1960 M_w 9·5 Valdivia and the 2010 M_w 8·8 Maule earthquakes in 17 lakes in South‐Central Chile (i.e. lakes Negra, Lo Encañado, Aculeo, Vichuquén, Laja, Villarrica, Calafquén, Pullinque, Pellaifa, Panguipulli, Neltume, Riñihue, Ranco, Maihue, Puyehue, Rupanco and Llanquihue). A combination of image analysis, magnetic susceptibility and grain‐size analysis allows identification of five types of seismically‐induced event deposits: (i) mass‐transport deposits; (ii) in situ deformations; (iii) lacustrine turbidites with a composition similar to the hemipelagic background sediments (lacustrine turbidites type 1); (iv) lacustrine turbidites with a composition different from the background sediments (lacustrine turbidites type 2) and (v) megaturbidites. These seismically‐induced event deposits were compared to local seismic intensities of the causative earthquakes, eyewitness reports, post‐earthquake observations, and vegetation and geomorphology of the catchment and the lake. Megaturbidites occur where lake seiches took place. Lacustrine turbidites type 2 can be the result of: (i) local near‐shore mass wasting; (ii) delta collapse; (iii) onshore landslides; (iv) debris flows or mudflows; or (v) fluvial reworking of landslide debris. On the contrary, lacustrine turbidites type 1 are the result of shallow mass wasting on sublacustrine slopes covered by hemipelagic sediments. Due to their more constrained origin, lacustrine turbidites type 1 are the most reliable type of seismically‐induced event deposits in quantitative palaeoseismology, because they are almost exclusively triggered by earthquake shaking. Moreover, they most sensitively record varying seismic shaking intensities. The number of lacustrine turbidites type 1 linearly increases with increasing seismic intensity, starting with no lacustrine turbidites type 1 at intensities between V½ and VI and reaching 100% when intensities are higher than VII½. Combining different types of seismically‐induced event deposits allows the reconstruction of the complete impact of an earthquake.