中国及周边地区中晚全新世湿度演化及其可能机制

文章对中国及周边地区中晚全新世的气候序列展开综述,系统研究了该地区中晚全新世湿度演化的时空差异,并探讨了气候变化的联系及可能机制。基于构建代用指标、沉积连续性、年代控制点以及样品分辨率的评价条件,对中国及周边地区（包括东亚季风区、印度季风区、西风环流区和青藏高原区）的古气候序列进行筛选。最终筛选出59个高质量的中晚全新世气候序列并进行系统研究,使用区域加权平均法获得东亚季风区、印度季风区和西风环流区的区域平均湿度指数序列,并试图探讨其联系和响应机制。结果表明：1）东亚季风区中晚全新世湿度变化呈持续下降趋势,可能主要受制于热带西太平洋表层海温和厄尔尼诺强度变化;2）印度季风区在约4800 cal.a B.P.湿度开始剧烈下降,其湿度演化历史是整个印度洋区域气候变化的一部分,印度洋暖季海温和洋面蒸发可能主导该区的湿度变化;3）西风环流区中全新世以来湿度呈持续增加趋势,可能与北大西洋和欧洲地区温度下降有关,温度下降导致西风环流的南移和增强致使该地区湿度增加;4）青藏高原东北缘中晚全新世的湿度演化与东亚季风区较为一致,而高原内部基本呈南北向梯度变化。另外,中晚全新世典型气候突变事件,如4.2 ka和2.8 ka气候事件,在中国及周边地区普遍出现,具体表现为低纬度季风区出现干旱特征,中纬度西风带部分地区出现湿润特征。

     

On the sensitivity of Holocene talus-derived rock glaciers to climate change in the Ben Ohau Range,New Zealand

The morphology and surface ages of talus-derived rock glaciers are investigated to establish the timing of rock glacier formation in the central Southern Alps. Samples of rock weathering rinds show that all rock glaciers studied were formed during the Neoglacial period, but differences exist between sites in the number of new rock glacier lobes formed by Holocene climatic fluctuations. A qualitative conceptual model is proposed to explain rock glacier formation in terms of two thresholds. An external threshold relates to the presence of a cool climate capable of allowing internal ice to form within talus slopes. An internal threshold relates to the presence of sufficiently thick talus at a site to generate a shear stress capable of overcoming internal friction within the talus/ice mass. The model produces a non-steady-state response to explain why unmodified talus, single-lobed and double-lobed rock glaciers developed at adjacent sites under the same climatic regime. Individual landforms have different sensitivities to formation, which depend partly on the previous history of talus accumulation and rock glacier activity at a site. The model demonstrates how successive cool climate periods may be fully represented by rock glacier lobes at sensitive sites but under-represented at insensitive sites. Sensitivity (and therefore climatic representativeness) is favoured by high rates of debris supply. By implication, the timing of formation of rock glacier lobes in regions of prolonged cool climate and low debris production is less likely to correspond to the timing of climatic cooling and more likely to follow the ‘rules’ of deterministic chaos.     

浙江瓶窑BHQ孔全新统孢粉组合特征与气候变化

利用浙江省瓶窑北湖BHQ孔长约14m的岩心,以4个AMS¹⁴C数据为年代依据,对49块样品进行孢粉分析。分析结果发现,样品中孢粉浓度差异较大,植物种类繁多,总计103个科/属。通过对孢粉组合特征的分析,结合岩性特征,划分出3个孢粉带和9个亚带,重建了研究区早—中全新世植被演替和气候冷暖波动的环境序列。19～8.9m沉积时段,对应于早全新世气候回暖期,研究区植被主要是以落叶栎、松、阿丁枫和枫杨为主,混有少量常绿栎和榆等的针叶—落叶阔叶混交林,常绿乔木花粉含量较低,说明研究区经历晚更新世晚期新仙女木事件后进入全新世,气候迅速转暖;8.9～6.7m沉积时段,对应于全新世最适宜期,为研究区水热条件配置最佳阶段,主要发育由落叶栎、常绿栎、松、阿丁枫、枫杨和榆等组成的常绿—落叶阔叶混交林,常绿乔木的种类和含量要远远高于前一阶段,指示气候变化的最适宜阶段;6.7～4.775m沉积时段,对应于中全新世气候波动期,孢粉组合发生明显波动,研究区植被主要以落叶栎、枫香、松、枫杨等落叶阔叶乔木为主,常绿栎花粉的含量急剧萎缩,表明研究区植被类型演替为落叶阔叶林,反映经历了较为剧烈的气候恶化事件,而本段高含量的稻属花粉(≥35μm)可能指示该时段研究区存在一定规模的古人类活动。     

安徽巢湖湖泊沉积物孢粉-炭屑组合记录的全新世以来植被与气候演变

利用湖泊钻孔的孢粉及炭屑分析资料,探讨了安徽巢湖湖泊沉积物孢粉-炭屑组合记录的全新世以来植被与气候演变。孢粉-炭屑记录表明：本区9870-6040 cal.{a BP},植被是以壳斗科的落叶、常绿属种为主的落叶阔叶、常绿阔叶混交林,气候呈现温和略干的特点;6040-4860 cal.{a BP},植被是以落叶栎类、栗属、青冈属和栲/石栎属为主的落叶阔叶、常绿阔叶混交林,气候由前一阶段的温和略干变为温暖湿润,进入全新世最适宜气候期;4860-2170 cal.{a BP},植被是以落叶栎类占绝对优势的落叶阔叶、常绿阔叶混交林,气温逐渐降低、湿度下降,气候温和干燥,环境整体向着干旱趋势转化,2170 cal.{a BP}左右出现一次明显的干旱事件;2170-1040 cal.{a BP},森林退缩,落叶阔叶、常绿阔叶混交林迅速被破坏,演替成以禾本科为主的草地,气候处于转型时期,总体上温和湿润;1040-200 cal.{a BP},木本植物仅零星分布,可能存在针叶阔叶混交林植被,植被类型逐渐演替成以禾本科、蒿属和蓼属等为主的草丛,其中包括较多的农作物,气候温凉稍湿;200 cal.{a BP}以来,湖区周围零星分布有阔叶乔木,松林在远处可能有分布,植被仍是以禾本科、蒿属和蓼属等为主的草丛,气候相对温暖湿润,但也有若干变凉干的波动,湖泊富营养化水平逐渐增加,人类活动已经对环境变化产生了较大的影响。     

杭州湾钱塘江两岸全新世以来的古植被及古气候研究

根据杭州市三个钻孔的孢粉资料对杭州市地区全新世以来的植被和古气候演变进行讨论。这三个钻孔分别位于钱塘江两岸的三盈村(HZ1)、新街三星(HZ2)和下沙镇市场(HZ3),笔者对其进行了孢粉样分析和地层年代学研究。研究结果表明,该区自晚更新世晚期以来的植被演化可以划分为4个阶段:第一阶段为针叶林,气候温凉较湿,海平面低于现今海平面;第二阶段为针叶林或针阔叶混交林,气候温和较湿,海平面接近现今海平面;第三阶段为针阔叶混交林,枫香、榆花粉明显增多,气候温暖较湿,出现高海面;第四阶段为针叶林,气候暖和较湿,海平面接近现今位置。其中第一阶段为末次冰期,第二、三、四阶段为全新世。根据第三阶段的孢粉组合特征、岩性特征以及微体化石可知,全新世中期的气候比较适宜,气候温暖湿润。     

Milestones in the evolution of the atmosphere with reference to climate change

The history of life on Earth is critically dependent on the carbon, sulfur and oxygen cycles of the lithosphere – hydrosphere – atmosphere – biosphere system. An Archean oxygen-poor greenhouse atmosphere developed through: (i) accumulation of CO₂ and CH₄ from episodic injections of CO₂ from volcanic activity, volatilised crust impacted by asteroids and comets, metamorphic devolatilisation processes and release of methane from sediments; and (ii) little CO₂ weathering-capture due to both high temperatures of the hydrosphere (low CO₂ solubility) and a low ratio of exposed continents to oceans. In the wake of the Sturtian glaciation, enrichment in oxygen and appearance of multicellular eukaryotes heralded the onset of the Phanerozoic where greenhouse conditions were interrupted by periods of strong CO₂-sequestration through intensified capture of CO₂ by marine plants, onset of land plants and burial of carbonaceous shale and coal (Late Ordovician; Carboniferous – Permian; Late Jurassic; Late Tertiary – Quaternary). The progression from Late Mesozoic and Early Tertiary greenhouse conditions to Late Tertiary – Quaternary ice ages was related to the sequestration of CO₂ by rapid weathering of the emerging Alpine and Himalayan mountain chains. A number of peak warming and sea-level-rise events include the Late Oligocene, mid-Miocene, mid-Pliocene and Pleistocene glacial terminations. The Late Tertiary – Quaternary ice ages were dominated by cyclic orbital-forcing-triggered terminations which involved CO₂-feedback effects from warming seas and the biosphere and albedo flips due to ice-sheet melting. Since ca AD 1750 human emissions were ～305 Gt of carbon, as compared with ～750 Gt C in the atmosphere. The emissions constitute ～12% of the terrestrial biosphere and ～10% of the known global fossil fuel reserve of ～4000 Gt C, whose combustion would compare to the ～ 4600 Gt C released to the atmosphere during the K – T impact event 65 million years ago, with associated ～65% mass extinction of species. The current growth rate of atmospheric greenhouse gases and global mean temperatures exceed those of Pleistocene glacial terminations by one to two orders of magnitude. The relationship between temperatures and sea-levels for the last few million years project future sea-level rises toward time-averaged values of at least 5 m per 1°C. The instability of ice sheets suggested by the Dansgaard – Oeschinger glacial cycles during 50 – 20 ka, observed ice melt lag effects of glacial terminations, spring ice collapse dynamics and the doubling per-decade of Greenland and west Antarctic ice melt suggest that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's projected sea-level rises (<59 cm) for the 21st century may be exceeded. The biological and philosophical rationale underlying climate change and mass extinction perpetrated by an intelligent carbon-emitting mammal species may never be known.     

Response of geochemical records in lacustrine sediments to climate change and human impact during middle Holocene in Mengjin, Henan Province, China

In this paper, we examined the response of geochemical records in lacustrine sediments to climate and human activity in Mengjin, Henan Province of China during the middle Holocene. Indices used in this study include K, Na, Mn, Ba, Sr, Al, Ti, cation ratios, and Gramineae pollen in lacustrine sediments. Results indicate a drought event in this area around 5660 cal a BP, which weakened soil leaching and changed the element composition of surface soil runoff entering the paelo-lake and lacustrine sediments. Human activity appearing from 4695 cal a BP to 4000 cal a BP also affected the chemical composition of lake sediments. Human activities led to enhanced soil erosion and destroyed soil leaching horizons. Therefore, the substance of soil illuvial layer exposed to the surface and entering the paleo-lake were substantially altered by human activities.     

西北高寒干旱区哈尔腾河流域植被覆盖变化及其对全球气候变化的响应

基于ArcGIS软件, 对哈尔腾河流域1990年、 2000年、 2010年3期Landsat5-TM遥感影像分6种土地覆盖类型进行解译. 结果表明: 近20 a来, 研究区无植被区面积呈净减少趋势, 减少 2 192.37 km²; 上游高海拔地区草地面积增加明显, 新增1 938.15 km², 新增面积约占流域总面积的10%, 哈尔腾河流域呈显著绿化趋势; 冰雪面积增加210.39 km², 主要是沿原有冰雪的前缘延伸. 各种覆盖类型之间的转换主要表现为无植被区向其他5种类型的转变, 反向转换则比较少; 三种草地之间的转换主要表现为由低向中、 高覆盖类型的转换. 气温的升高与降雨量的增加是该流域土地覆盖变化的主要影响因素. 气候变化明显改善了流域上游的植被覆盖, 但“引哈济党”工程调水1.0×10⁸ m³后将对流域下游大苏干湖的生态系统产生一定影响. 应未雨绸缪, 加强监测和评估.     

Millennial-scale dynamics of the winter cold tongue in the southern South China Sea over the past 26 ka and the East Asian winter monsoon

Millennial-scale variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) remain elusive due to sparse and controversial reconstructions. By compiling a variety of alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates, we find that the west-east SST gradient in the southern South China Sea (SCS) well documents the temporal dynamics of the winter “cold tongue” off the southern Vietnam and by inference, variations in the EAWM intensity over the past 26 ka. Our results reveal that the winter “cold tongue” SSTs were significantly colder during Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas event, resulting in an increased west-east SST gradient in the southern SCS due to a strengthened EAWM. Within dating uncertainties, an intensified EAWM during cold stadials was coeval with the shutdown or a reduction in strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), exhibiting a strong linkage between the AMOC and the EAWM system. The west-east SST gradient also indicates an enhanced EAWM during the early Holocene, which may be induced by postglacial ice-sheet dynamics and a strong seasonal contrast in solar insolation. Our findings suggest that the EAWM was probably modulated by a complex interplay between the AMOC, solar insolation and ice-sheet dynamics on sub-orbital time scales.     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.     

1957-2007年东北地区负积温时空演变

作为冬季寒冷程度的指标之一,负积温的变动在理论上可能与冻土发育程度有一定的关系。选用EOF分解、连续小波变换等方法对东北地区81个气象站点1957-2007年的负积温进行分析,以探究其变化的时间序列及空间分异规律,及其与冻土退化、平均温变化间的关系。结果表明,东北地区负积温呈全区一致性上升趋势,且增温率由西南向东北递增。全区经历明显的降温-增温-降温阶段,大兴安岭地区、小兴安岭北部及以北地区高温期短、振幅较大,年际变差更明显。除黑龙江北部、内蒙古东部以外,全区负积温最低、最高及突变年份一致,表现出全球气候变化下负积温变动的区域同步性。负积温增温与冻土退化及年平均温度的上升具有较良好的一致性。     

黄河上游官亭盆地全新世山洪泥流盛行期及其与全球气候变化关系研究

黄河上游青藏高原东北边缘的自然环境具有高度的敏感性和脆弱性,其对全球变化的响应受到国内外学术界的广泛关注。特别是关于官亭盆地喇家遗址及其周边区域的史前灾害与形成机制问题,国内外地学与考古学界存在激烈的学术争论。通过多年对官亭盆地黄河北岸古洪积扇前沿和第二级阶地及吕家沟、岗沟、马家沟等区域细致的野外考察,在该区域选取4个天然沉积剖面,对其进行高分辨率的系统性采样,并分析测定磁化率、粒度成分和砂级颗粒。结果表明：晚更新世晚期到全新世早期官亭盆地黄河北岸古洪积扇前沿和黄河第二级阶地区域沉积了风成黄土（L_1-1和L_t）,全新世中期形成了黑垆土古土壤（S₀）。该区域沉积剖面结构普遍的特征是,全新世中期黑垆土古土壤被山洪泥流层和山洪砂土层分隔为多个层段,这是发生在OSL年龄3960~3650 a,对应¹⁴C年龄3850~3600 a B.P.期间的大规模暴雨山洪泥流灾害事件造成的结果。这期间官亭盆地发生了两场多次大地震,并且伴随短时段高强度暴雨诱发的大规模山洪泥流,其在古洪积扇前沿溢出沟槽,扩散到黄河第二级阶地沉积下来,淹没农田和聚落,以喇家遗址为代表的大型齐家文化聚落由此而毁灭。通过与全球气候变化对比分析,发现这个山洪泥流盛行期发生在全球气候变化的转折阶段。气候恶化造成青藏高原边缘大气环流不稳定,对流旺盛,极端性暴雨频发。在史前人类土地开发利用与多次大地震造成的坡面失稳背景条件之下,暴雨诱发大规模山洪和泥流、泥石流等灾害性地表过程,毁灭了喇家遗址的齐家文化聚落。这个研究结果对于深入理解黄河上游史前气候环境变化、自然灾害和人地关系演变具有重要科学价值。

     

三江源地区1980—2019年积雪时空动态特征及其对气候变化的响应

三江源地区气象站点稀疏,依靠地面台站数据难以反映地面真实积雪情况。利用卫星遥感数据引入重心模型分析了三江源地区1980—2019年4个积雪参数（积雪日数、积雪深度、积雪初日和积雪终日）的时空动态特征,利用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率估计分析了积雪和气候因子的变化趋势,并探究积雪对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1980—2019年三江源地区呈现积雪日数和积雪深度减少、积雪初日推迟、积雪终日提前的变化趋势,而该区域同期的气温和降水量则呈现上升趋势;4个积雪参数重心均呈现出东移趋势,而同期气温重心则呈现西移趋势,气温重心位置西移速率分别是积雪日数和积雪深度重心位置东移速率的6倍和2倍。这表明该区域4个积雪参数以及气候因子的变化趋势具有较强的空间异质性,西部气温升高速率大于东部,导致西部积雪日数和积雪深度减少速率同样大于东部,从而导致气温重心西移而积雪参数重心东移。澜沧江源区积雪日数减少、积雪深度减少、积雪初日推迟以及积雪终日提前的速率最大,其次是长江源区和黄河源区。进一步的相关性分析表明,三江源地区年平均气温的升高是导致积雪日数和积雪深度减少、积雪初日推迟、积雪终日提前的主要影响因子,积雪日数对气温升高响应最敏感,其次是积雪深度、初日和终日;而年降水量与4个积雪参数的相关性均不显著。研究可为三江源地区水资源和生态环境保护提供基础资料和理论依据。     

气候变化背景下玉龙雪山漾弓江流域径流变化 及其影响因素分析

利用1979-2016年金沙江支流漾弓江流域木家桥水文站流量资料和丽江市气象资料,揭示了漾弓江流域径流变化特征及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：漾弓江流域年径流量呈先增加后减小趋势。在年代际时间尺度, 20世纪80年代、90年代以及2000-2009年,径流量呈现增加趋势,而2010-2016年径流量呈减小趋势,与2000-2009年相比, 2010-2016年径流量减少了42%（减少径流量为0.88×10⁸ m³）。气温和降水量对径流的影响均较为显著,其中,降水量对径流的影响主要体现在雨季,而气温对径流的影响主要体现在消融期。气温升高导致冰川累积负物质平衡,进而引起冰雪融水变化,漾弓江流域2000-2009年径流变化的主要原因。     

1979~2010年和墨洛绿洲区地下水时空演变与归因

地下水系统的演变机制对干旱区地下水资源的可持续管理至关重要。基于地下水观测数据、水文地质资料、气象资料和灌溉用水的统计数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、地质统计学和地下水储量计算法,研究了和田河流域1979~2010年地下水埋深和储量的时空变化,并应用灰色关联法分析了地下水时空演变的影响因素。结果表明：1979~2010年和墨洛绿洲地下水埋深呈增大趋势,枯水季增大趋势略大于丰水季。30年间地下水储量减小的平均速率为2567×10⁴m³/a,尤其是2004年以后地下水储量锐减,2004~2010年地下水储量的平均减小速率是1979~2004年的8.16倍。从空间分布上,地下水埋深增加有从冲洪积扇缘向扇顶递减的趋势。地下水埋深增大、地下水储量递减主要是由于灌溉面积增加导致地下水开采增加引起的,人类活动对地下水均衡变化的作用大于自然要素的影响。可持续的绿洲农业水资源管理,是维持绿洲地下水安全的关键。

     

A reassessment of the Lower Namoi Catchment aquifer architecture and hydraulic connectivity with reference to climate drivers

We demonstrate the need for better representations of aquifer architecture to understand hydraulic connectivity and manage groundwater allocations for the ～140 m-thick alluvial sequences in the Lower Namoi Catchment, Australia. In the 1980s, an analysis of palynological and groundwater hydrograph data resulted in a simple three-layer stratigraphic/hydrostratigraphic representation for the aquifer system, consisting of an unconfined aquifer overlying two semi-confined aquifers. We present an analysis of 278 borehole lithological logs within the catchment and show that the stratigraphy is far more complex. The architectural features and the net-to-gross line-plot of the valley-filling sequence are best represented by a distributive fluvial system, where the avulsion frequency increases at a slower rate than the aggradation rate.

We also show that an improved understanding of past climates contextualises the architectural features observable in the valley-filling sequence, and that the lithofacies distribution captures information about the impact of climate change during the Neogene and Quaternary. We demonstrate the correlation between climate and the vertical lithological succession by correlating the sediment net-to-gross ratio line-plot with the marine benthic oxygen isotope line-plot – a climate change proxy. Pollens indicate that there was a transition from a relatively wet climate in the mid–late Miocene to a drier climate in the Pleistocene, with a continuing drying trend until present. Groundwater is currently extracted from the sand and gravel belts associated with the high-energy wetter climate. However, some of these channel belts are disconnected from the modern river and flood zone. We show that the cutoff between the hydraulically well- and poorly connected portions of the valley-filling sequence matches the connectivity threshold expected from a fluvial system.     

1374~2012年长江源区重建径流变化特征及对气候变化的响应

依据长江源区1374~2012年重建径流,采用水文统计和交叉小波方法,分析了长江源区径流近600年变化趋势、突变、周期等特征,并进一步探讨了该区域径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明,径流总体呈现波动上升的变化特征,其中年平均径流量在20世纪以前以减少趋势为主,但2000年之后有增多趋势。年代际变率波动明显,丰水期、枯水期数量基本相同,但持续时间不等;突变现象集中在16世纪20年代~17世纪中期,20世纪50年代~90年代初期;源区径流存在多时间尺度的周期变化,以准16~32 a周期为主。径流对气候变化的响应十分明显。其与降水的相关性较高,且同相位变化主要集中在1710~1730年、1900~1930年的准8 a周期和1730~1800年、1810~1950年的准32 a周期上;气温与径流的相关性弱于降水量,在不同时期二者正负相关性存在差异。通过滑动相关分析经流与ENSO、PDO、NAO指数的关系,发现径流与NAO、PDO在部分时间窗口显著相关。3个环流指数与径流的显著相关关系主要集中在1700~1850年的16~32 a周期和1600~1800年的准64 a周期;结合气温、降水与环流指数相关关系,可推断ENSO、NAO和PDO指数通过影响气温、降水等气候要素,滞后影响径流的变化。

     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

Assessing vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China with AVHRR NDVI and AVHRR NPP time-series

The relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics in the southwestern karst region of China has been identified by recent studies. Based on previous researches and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) GIMMS (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) (1982–2003) and AVHRR GloPEM (Global Production Efficiency Model) NPP (Net Primary Production) (1981–2000) datasets, vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China were assessed. The results show that: (1) since the early 1980s, both vegetation cover density and net primary production have insignificant ascending tendencies. However, the inter-annual variation rates of vegetation indexes have apparent spatial differentiations; (2) the correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors vary geographically; (3) as indicated by NDVI and NPP, various vegetation types have different responses to climate change, and the annual mean temperature variation has more significant impact on vegetation dynamics than the annual precipitation variation in the study area; (4) distribution laws of correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors in different climate conditions are apparent. All these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces which impact the stability of the karst ecosystems and provide scientific basis for the management of the karst ecosystems.