Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992–2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable ( r  = ±0.2 to ±0.43; P  < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9–24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province ( P  < 0.1–0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved – information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.     

山西降水与ENSO的相关性研究

基于山西38个测站1958-2013年的逐月降水资料、CPC南方涛动指数、NOAA逐月太平洋海温等资料,应用趋势分析和相关分析等统计方法分析了近56年山西年及四季降水对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明:1 La Nina年,山西年降水、秋、冬季降水易偏多,春、夏季易偏少;El Nino年,春季降水易偏多,年降水、夏、秋和冬季易减少。La Nina次年,冬季降水易偏多,年降水、春、夏和秋季易偏少;El Nino次年,年降水、春、夏季降水易偏多,秋、冬季易偏少。2山西年降水与上年太平洋海温在Nino 3,4区存在小区域的正相关,上年对应海域海温偏高(低),年降水易偏多(少),与同期太平洋海温在Nino 3区存在负相关,对应海域海温偏高(低),年降水易偏少(多);春季降水与前期冬季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3,4(Nino C)区存在正相关;夏季降水与前期春季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3区存在负相关;秋季降水与前期夏季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino C(Nino 3和Nino C)区存在负相关区;冬季降水与前期秋季(同期)太平洋海温在Nino 3,4(Nino C)区存在大面积负相关。3 SOI与山西大部分地区的降水趋势指数为显著负相关,中西部、东北部局部地区相关系数达-0.5以上,SOI为正(负)值时,上述地区月降水易偏少(多);SOI与东北部滞后1个月的降水趋势指数有相关系数达-0.45以上的负相关区域;SOI与滞后2(3)个月的降水趋势指数的相关分析表明,不同区域对SOI变化的响应不同,相关系数分别为-0.38~0.29和-0.43~0.22。     

Detection of temperature variability and trends in the lower troposphere over Delhi: A study of joint influence of ENSO and Land use/ Land cover during 1980–2015

A study of radiosonde observations for temperature at 850 hPa over Delhi for a period of 35 years was conducted. The influence of atmospheric oscillations and geophysical events like El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropospheric temperature variability showed indicative trends for changing urban climate in Delhi. The inter‐annual variation in surface temperature and its relationship with land use changes and land cover changes (LULCC) was also examined. LULCC and urban expansion into peripheral areas of Delhi (towards the West, North, North‐West and South) at the cost of agricultural and wasteland was found to be extensive. The upper range of the surface temperature has shifted by ~6°C. The post‐monsoon and winter months from November to February have experienced a considerable increase in the average temperature in the period examined. The monsoon months from June to September have undergone cooling of ~0.5°C–1°C at 850 hPa. An inverse relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly averaged temperature. The temperature of the atmosphere over Delhi at 850 hPa has increased only marginally (~ 0.3°C) for the time period 1980–2015. Bi‐modal peaks were the most peculiar features observed in mean monthly temperature variation during 2000–2009.     

宁夏气候变化对ENSO事件的响应

自20世纪50年代以来，宁夏气温具有明显的上升趋势，尤其是60年代中后期以来，增温趋势更加明显，每10年增温0．514℃。近40多年来，宁夏气候总体上趋于干旱，虽然自80年代到90年代初降水有增多的趋势，但90年代中期以来又有明显的减少趋势。经功率谱分析发现，ENSO和降水有14年、3．75年、准2年和1．5年的周期。宁夏气温对E1 Nino事件响应有滞后的现象，并且在滞后7～18月期间的相关程度都通过了0．0l显著性水平检验，对于La Nina事件，并没有发现这种现象。而降水对ENSO的响应也存在滞后现象，对E1 Nmo事件滞后4个月时达到最大响应，而对La Nina事件只需滞后1个月，它们的相关显著性都通过了0．0l显著性水平检验。宁夏降水对ENSO响应存在明显的区内差异，南部地区降水对ENSO事件达到最显著响应比中北部地区迟缓1个月，中北部地区对ENSO的相关显著性强于南部地区。E1 Nmo发生时，降水偏少，4～6月份降水偏少非常明显，与往年相比偏少大约20％左右。La Nina发生时，降水偏多，冬季降水增多尤其明显，其中12月增多20％以上。     

1951年以来ENSO事件对中国西北不同气候区的影响

通过对中国西北典型半湿润区、半干旱区、干旱区和半荒漠区4个不同气候区1951-2015年降水和气温资料的搜集、整理和处理,分析研究区1951年以来降水和气温的变化,并对其进行M-K突变检验,总结ENSO事件对气候与旱涝灾害的影响.研究结果表明:①4个气候区降水量逐年变化幅度差异明显,半干旱区为变化幅度最小区域,半湿润区和干旱区变化幅度最大但出现降低的趋势,而半荒漠区则是降水量增长最明显的区域;降水的集中度由东往西变化逐渐增大,东部比西部滞后5d左右.②4个气候区气温上升幅度存在差异,半湿润区气温上升幅度最大,干旱区气温上升幅度最小.③El Ni(n)o事件使4个气候区发生不同程度的降水减少、气温升高,而La Ni(n)a事件则使降水增加、气温降低.④El Ni(n)o事件会给4个气候区当年带来旱灾,次年带来涝灾;La Ni(n)a事件则会给当年带来涝灾,次年带来旱灾.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of fires in tropical savannas of Indonesia

This paper examines spatial and temporal patterns of large to medium‐sized fires across the Indonesian Archipelago using remote sensing, particularly the MODIS fire products, over a 14 years period (2000–13 inclusive) in conjunction with climatic and land data in a GIS. Results showed fires (burned area and number of fires) were detected the most in year 2002 and least in 2010. The extent of burning was correlated with the annual Southern Oscillation Index with most burning occurring during times of sustained negative SOI values, which generally means drier conditions across the region. Most of the detected fires occurred in the middle of the dry season and in drier eastern Indonesia. Across Indonesia, approximately 1.5 per cent of available open vegetation area burned, whereas only 0.5 per cent of forest area burned. Most open vegetation burning was detected in the savanna with an area equivalent to 11.1 per cent of its extent being burned over the 14 years. On Sumba Island, where the pronounced dry season extends for at least four months, open vegetation is the most common land cover type, of which 99 per cent burned by area over the study period making it the island with the most burned areas in the Indonesian Archipelago.     

1960―2012年安徽省降水和气温变化特征及其与ENSO的相关性分析

使用安徽省1960―2012年气温与降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权插值法、最小二乘法和相关分析法分析安徽省近53年来气温和降水的时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明：1）近53年来安徽省年降水量和年平均气温分别以0.93 mm/a和0.02℃/a的倾向率呈增加趋势;季节变化表明,夏季和冬季降水量呈明显的增加趋势,而春、秋两季则呈减小趋势;四季气温均有所升高,春季气温增幅最大。2）不同季节降水量的年代际变化特征并不明显,降水主要集中在夏季,约占全年降水量的45.95%;与降水量年代际变化不同,年均温和四季气温的年代际变化呈波动上升趋势。3）降水存在显著的空间差异,夏、冬两季降水量由北向南减小幅度逐渐增大,春季降水量由北向南增加幅度逐渐增大;气温的空间变化并无一定规律,但宿州是四季以及全年增温幅度最大的地区。4）不同时间尺度的降水和气温均与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动均存在一定的相关性,其中3、9和11月的降水与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平以及南方涛动有较为显著的相关性,而在9月,气温受Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动影响较显著;Nino 3.4区海表温度距平对年降水量和年均温的影响更明显。5）近53年来,El Nino事件和La Nina事件的出现频数分别为16和15次,La Nina事件对降水的增加的影响强于El Nino事件,而El Nino和La Nina事件对气温的影响均不显著。     

The influence of ENSO and PDO on tropical Andean glaciers and their impact on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.     

ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究

选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明：① 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;② 降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;③ 降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小;④ 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

地方自治背景下印度尼西亚空间规划面临的挑战

空间规划通过协调区域活动,合理地利用空间,辅助国家政治、经济和社会等事务的治理。印尼的空间规划由总统制定、落实,它体现着国家政治层面的发展愿景和任务。当国家治理结构改变时,各区域的空间规划及其具体的实施过程也随之改变。分权化和地方自治是2001年以来印尼政府体制的重大变革。通过相关规划法律条文和文献分析,发现空间规划开始面临一系列问题,主要表现为资金和专业人员的缺乏、政策交叉现象和空间规划违规行为等。此外,印尼的地方自治制度对空间规划产生了一定的积极影响：首先,在地方自治的背景下,地方政府通过系统的管理增加了区域收入,以支持空间规划的实施;其次,地方政府开始优先聘用空间规划的专业人员,制定更加有效的空间规划政策;最后,各地区加强了对空间规划违规者的执法力度,增强了区域间团结意识,从而促进地区繁荣发展。目前中央与地方之间在权力和利益分配上仍存在着大量的博弈和冲突,应加强上下级政府之间的沟通与合作,保障地方对地方相关事务决策时的参与权,建立地方利益表达与平衡的机制,提高中央决策的科学化和民主化水平。     

Racial Segregation in the (Post) Colonial City: The Case of Indonesia1

Urban society in colonial and early postcolonial Indonesia was stratified along ethnic and class lines. This stratification was given concrete shape in the urban residential landscape. Our article starts from the working hypothesis that under the impact of decolonization the changing social status system was reflected in a changing residential pattern. We offer empirical evidence to weigh the relative validity of the from-race-to-class-segregation thesis during colonization against the class-segregation-throughout-decolonization thesis. On the basis of our findings, we argue that the second thesis presents the more accurate depiction of urban society. Looking at spatial segregation, decolonization was characterized by continuity. Decolonization by itself was therefore insufficient to alter sociospatial inequality in postcolonial Indonesian cities.     

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China’s rice production is less climate-sensitive.     

Encountering a multidimensional assemblage: The case of Norwegian corporate social responsibility activities in Indonesia

A vociferous debate on socio-spatial formations is ongoing between those advocating a geography of scales and those advocating flat ontologies and assemblages, yet a middle ground has not been properly addressed. The author argues for an empirically driven, multidimensional assemblage approach whereby the processes constituting an assemblage and the different socio-spatial organisation of heterogeneous entities form the analytical basis for geographical analyses of particular empirical events. He shows how Norwegian companies in Indonesia encounter different stakeholders constituting a multidimensional (situated, scaled, and networked) ‘assemblage of national interests’ with multitudinous motivations and drivers but quite specific converged influence. He examines the territorialising forces employed during such encounters, the de-territorialising forces challenging the assemblage, and how the evolution of the ‘assemblage of national interests’ resulted in 2012 in the world's first law on corporate social responsibility (CSR), which has more or less forced Norwegian companies to make social investments in local communities within a CRS framing. The findings are that assemblages are scaled and networked, but also uncoordinated and ‘chaotic’. Norwegian companies in Indonesia are subject to a joint but dispersed, multidimensional assemblage of national interest, where stakeholders on different scales, with multiple motivations, mobilise to persuade them to run social investment programmes.     

厄尔尼诺和南方涛动对中国水稻产量的影响(英文)

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production,we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First,the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second,there is almost ...     

Enclaves and ethnic ties: The local impacts of Singaporean cross‐border tourism in Malaysia and Indonesia

Cross‐border tourism is often proposed by governments as an incentive for economic growth, but critics have suggested that its impacts are, in fact, overplayed. This paper presents research in the Indonesia‐Malaysia‐Singapore Growth Triangle (IMS‐GT). It examines the broad economic impacts of Singaporean cross‐border tourism on local host communities in two locations: Kukup, a traditional Malaysian fishing village in Johor, southern Peninsular Malaysia, and Bintan in Riau Islands Province in western Indonesia. The study found that cross‐border tourism generated income, employment and some local economic linkages. In Kukup clear economic benefits with increased income and employment were unevenly distributed between ethnic groups. The Bintan enclave development had some linkages to the island economy but was reliant on immigrant labour. Cross‐border ethnic ties, particularly Chinese, also played an important role in the growth of tourism in the IMS‐GT. The paper shows that cross‐border tourism can be a useful addition to more conventional forms of international tourism within national tourism planning and could lead to significant economic benefits for local communities.     

试论印度尼西亚华人对该国经济国际化的贡献

文章简要剖析了印度尼西亚（以下简称印尼）华人经济发展的因素及其过程;指出后民族化时期产生的华人企业集团为印尼实现工业化作出了积极的贡献;阐明华人广泛的对外社会联系,世界性华商组织的成立,以及世界华商电脑网络的开通,使印尼华人为推动该国经济走向世界起着不可缺少的纽带作用。在发展外向型经济、跨国经营尤其是投资国际化中,华人大企业集团发挥了突出的作用。论文强调华人经济是印尼民族经济不可替代的组成部分;印     

Beyond slash-and-burn: The roles of human activities,altered hydrology and fuels in peat fires in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Near-annual landscape-scale fires in Indonesia's peatlands have caused severe air pollution, economic losses, and health impacts for millions of Southeast Asia residents. While the extent of fires across the peatland surface has been widely attributed to widespread peatland drainage for plantation agriculture, fires that transition from surface into sub-surface soil-based fires are the source of the most dangerous air pollution. Yet the mechanisms by which this transition occurs have rarely been considered, particularly in diversely managed landscapes. Integrating physical geography methods, including active fire scene evaluations and hydrological monitoring, with qualitative methods such as retrospective fire scene evaluations and semi-structured interviews, this article discusses how and why sub-surface peat fire transition occurs in an intensively altered peatland ecosystem in Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province. We demonstrate that variable water table levels and flammable surface vegetation (fire fuels) are co-produced socio-political and biophysical phenomena that enable the conditions in which surface fire is likely to transition into peat fire and increase landscape vulnerability to ongoing, uncontrollable annual fires. This localized understanding of peat fire transition counters normative causal narratives of tropical fire such as ‘slash-and-burn’, with implications for the management of new fire regimes in inhabited landscapes.     

江淮下游汛期降水与ENSO冷暖事件的关系——以里下河腹部地区为例

应用综合Niño指数,分析了江淮下游里下河腹部地区1957-2006年间汛期降水与ENSO冷暖事件的关系及环流形势。结果显示:汛期降水与ENSO冷暖事件的遥相关具有较为显著的阶段性特征。El Niño、La Nina的翌年汛期降水分别以负、正距平偏多,汛期降水的正负距平转换出现在1970年代末左右。汛期降水与Niño指数具有2-7 a左右的相似周期,且二者在1980年前后出现了明显的相位转换。El Niño翌年汛期降水为正距平的环流场显示,东亚环流经向呈“+、-、+”高度距平配置,且副高范围扩大,偏西偏北,存在典型的梅雨锋面,雨带停留在江淮下游地区,利于降水形成。而La Nina翌年汛期降水为正距平的环流场表明,副高位置偏东偏北收缩,东亚经向环流呈“-、-”位势高度距平,低、中层分别为西南风、偏东南风距平,缺少梅雨锋面,汛期降水偏多的程度较小。     

新冠肺炎疫情对中国区域经济的影响

新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济产生了巨大冲击。本文从悲观、中观和乐观三种情景预测了2020年中国经济增速,根据各地疫情严重程度分别用不同情景利用历史数据预测了各省2020年经济数据,随后运用Dagum基尼系数等方法分析了疫情对中国区域经济的影响。研究发现:即使在悲观情景下,中国经济在2020年仍能实现1.90%的增长,完全有能力实现"六稳""六保"任务,保障经济社会平稳健康运行;中观和乐观情景下,预计2020年中国经济增速将达到2.20%和3.74%;地区差异分析表明,地区差异扩大的趋势放缓,地区内部的不平衡加剧,而地区之间的差距变大。基于此,本文提出以疫后恢复为契机,充分挖掘中国区域经济发展的巨大潜力,实现区域增长接力,稳定经济增长。     

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。