Assessment of seismic hazards for Hurghada,Red Sea,Egypt

The entrance of the southern Suez Gulf of the Red Sea is known to be an area of high seismic activity in Egypt. The high rate of seismic activity in this area is mainly related to the adjustment in motion at the triple junction between the African plate, the Arabian plate, and the Sinai microplate. The present study attempts to estimate the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Hurghada site. This was done in two steps; the first one is by estimating specific parameters for the site, such as the mean seismic activity, λ, the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m _max. The second step is by selecting a ground motion parameter that is applicable to Hurghada site. The procedure permits the combination of both historical and recent instrumental data. The results of the hazard assessment, expressed as the worst case scenario, detect that Hurghada is exposed to the maximum credible earthquake event of magnitude m _max = 7.1 ± 0.31, at hypocentral distance of 31.6 ± 10 km. The possibility of the maximum Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which occurred in relation to this event at Hurghada site, is equal to 0.29 g. The mean return periods with the selected accelerations for Hurghada, a horizontal acceleration of 0.1 g, is expected to occur once every 74–106 years, with an average of one every 90 years. This result which obtained from the hazard assessment can be used as an input data for a seismic risk assessment.     

Computation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard for the GHSAP Test Area ‘Caucasus’

As a result of work carried out during the first two stages of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) for the Test Area Caucasus, a uniform earthquake catalogue was compiled and a Seismic Source Zones Model was designed. At the final stage of the program, the computation of seismic hazard was done by different methods.The results of a computation done using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment methodology, as well as primary intermediate steps and preparatory work are given in the present paper. Peak horizontal ground acceleration is chosen as the parameter representing seismic hazard. Final computer calculations were done with the SEISRISK III program. The two final Seismic Hazard maps for different return periods are presented. The work was carried out at the National Survey for Seismic Protection of the Republic of Armenia.     

Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity. Results for peak ground acceleration

Seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been evaluated in northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity data. We present here a preliminary seismic zoning in northern Algeria as derived from the obtained results.Initially, we have compiled an earthquake catalog of the region taking data from several agencies. Afterwards, we have delimited seismic areas where the b and m_max parameters are different. Finally, by applying the methodology proposed by Frankel [Seismol. Res. Lett. 66 (1995) 8], and using four complete and Poissonian seismicity models, we are able to compute the seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.A significant result of this work is the observation of mean PGA values of the order of 0.20 and 0.45 g, for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively, in the central area of the Tell Atlas.     

A model of characteristic earthquakes and its implications for regional seismicity

Regional seismicity (i.e. that averaged over large enough areas over long enough periods of time) has a size–frequency relationship, the Gutenberg–Richter law, which differs from that found for some seismic faults, the Characteristic Earthquake relationship. But all seismicity comes in the end from active faults, so the question arises of how one seismicity pattern could emerge from the other. The recently introduced Minimalist Model of Vázquez‐Prada et al. of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originating from a single fault. Here, we show that a Characteristic Earthquake relationship together with a fractal distribution of fault lengths can accurately describe the total seismicity produced in a region. The resulting earthquake catalogue accounts for the addition of both all the characteristic and all the non‐characteristic events triggered in the faults. The global accumulated size–frequency relationship strongly depends on the fault length fractal exponent and, for fractal exponents close to 2, correctly describes a Gutenberg–Richter distribution with a b exponent compatible with real seismicity.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness for homogenized moment magnitude catalogue for northeast India

Northeast India region is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. Events data for the period 1897–2010, used in this study has been largely compiled from global ISC, NEIC and GCMT databases. Historical seismicity catalogue of Gupta et al (1986) and some events data from the bulletins of India Meteorological Department are also used. Orthogonal regression relations for conversion of body and surface wave magnitudes to M _w,HRVD based on events data for the period 1978–2006 have been derived. An Orthogonal Standard Regression (OSR) relationship has also been obtained for scaling of intensity estimates to M _w,NEIC using 126 global intensity events with intensity VI or greater during the period 1975–2010.     

Surface displacement estimation using multi-temporal SAR Interferometry in a seismically active region of the Himalaya

The Indian subcontinent is one of the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. The Himalayas are well known for high seismic activity, and the ongoing northwards drift of the Indian plate makes the Himalaya geodynamically active. During the last three decades, several major earthquakes occurred at the plate interiors and boundaries in this subcontinent causing massive losses. Therefore, one of the major challenges in seismology has been to estimate long recurrence period of large earthquakes where most of the classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Approaches fail due to short catalogues used in the prediction models. Therefore, during the past few decades, the Himalayan region has been studied extensively in terms of the present ongoing displacements. In this context the present study has been carried out to estimate the surface displacement in a seismically active region of the Himalaya, in between Ganga and Yamuna Tear, using multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Interferometry. A displacement rate of 6.2–8.2 mm/yr in N14°E direction of the Indian plate towards the Tibetan plate has been obtained. It has been noted that the estimated convergence rate using Differential SAR Interferometry technique is relatively low in comparison with those obtained from previous classical studies. The reported low convergence rate may be due to the occurrence of silent/quite earthquakes, aseismic slip, differential movement of Delhi Hardwar ridge, etc. Therefore, in view of the contemporary seismicity and conspicuous displacements, a study of long-term observations of this surface movement has been recommended in future through a time-series SAR Interferometry analysis.     

Surface displacement estimation along Himalayan frontal fault using differential SAR interferometry

The Himalayan region has been studied extensively during the past few decades in terms of present ongoing deformations. Various models have been proposed for the evolution of the Himalaya to explain the cause of earthquake occurrences and to understand the seismotectonics of the Himalayan collision zone. However, the information on displacements from field geodetic surveys is still too scarce in time and spatial domains so as to provide convincing evidences. Moreover, classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Approaches also fail due to paucity of data in higher magnitude range, thus emphasizing the need of spatial level displacement measurements. It is in this context that the present study has been carried out to estimate the surface displacement in a seismically active region of the Himalaya between Ganga and Yamuna Tear using Differential SAR interferometry. Three single-look complex images, obtained from ASAR sensor onboard ENVISAT satellite, have been used. A displacement rate of 8?C10?mm per year in N15°E direction of Indian plate has been obtained in this three-pass SAR interferometry study. It has been noted that the estimated convergence rate using Differential SAR interferometry technique is relatively low in comparison with those obtained from previous classical studies. The reported low convergence rate may be due to occurrence of silent/quite earthquakes, aseismic slip, differential movement of Delhi Hardwar ridge, etc. Therefore, in view of the contemporary seismicity and conspicuous displacements, a study of long-term observations of this surface movement has been recommended in future through a time-series SAR interferometry analysis.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway,North‒East of Iran

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.     

Intra-plate seismicity gap along the Median Tectonic Line and oblique plate convergence in southwest Japan

The intra-plate seismicity map for southwest Japan, based on fairly complete historical data for the past four hundred years, reveals an inverse correlation between the seismic activity along the island arc and the slip-rate along the Median Tectonic Line during the Late Quaternary. In the eastern part, the tectonic line is geologically inactive but regional historic seismicity has been high. The intra-plate seismic activity is probably related with the well developed mosaic-like conjugate system of strike-slip faults there. Conversely, the historic seismicity has been low in the western part, especially low in an area along the most geologically active segment of the Median Tectonic Line. Since no creep movement has been found there, energy greater than that of the Mino-Owari earthquake of 1891 (M = 8.0) seems to be stored in this seismicity gap. The difference in seismic released energy between the two regions for the last four hundred years would be balanced by the strain energy accumulated in the seismic gap. The fairly uniform strain release is conformable to the idea, proposed on the basis of the trend of maximum compression axes, that the Philippine Sea plate is dragging southwest Japan southwestward along the Nankai trough.     

Meteorological triggering of earthquake swarms at Mt. Hochstaufen, SE-Germany

A growing body of evidence suggests that fluids are intimately linked to a variety of faulting processes. Yet, the particular mechanisms through which fluids and associated parameters influence the stress regime and thus the seismicity of a particular area are not well understood.We carry out a study of the spatio-temporal behavior of earthquakes, fluid-related parameters (groundwater levels) and meteorological observables (precipitation) in the swarm earthquake area of Bad Reichenhall, southeastern Germany. The small volume in which the earthquakes take place, almost yearly occurring earthquake swarms and a permanent, seismo-meteorological monitoring network, provide nearly controlled experimental conditions to study the physics of earthquake swarms and to infer characteristic properties of the seismogenic crust.In this paper we (1) describe this fairly unique study area in terms of geology, seismicity and atmospheric conditions; (2) present two cases of earthquake swarms that seem to follow above-average rainfall events; and (3) examine the observed migration of hypocenters with a simple pore pressure diffusion model.We find significant correlation of seismicity with rainfall and groundwater level increase, and estimate an average hydraulic diffusivity of D = 0.75 ± 0.35 m²/s for Mt. Hochstaufen in 2002.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s² for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.     

Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter ‘b’ has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The ‘b’ parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G–R relation and 0.87 ± 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the ‘b’ values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km × 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.     

Controls on intra-plate seismicity in southwestern Australia

Although the Southwest Seismic Zone (SWSZ), located about 150 km to the east of Perth in southwestern Australia, is one of the most seismically active areas in Australia, there is little understanding as to why the earthquakes are occurring.An analysis of geophysical, geological and geodetic data from the area suggests that the SWSZ coincides with a Precambrian terrane boundary. Seismic data show that the terrane boundary zone dips at a shallow angle in a northeasterly direction. Reactivation of this ‘zone of weakness’ in the contemporary stress field (east–west maximum horizontal stress) is interpreted to be the first-order control on seismicity in the region.Gravity data show that the terrane boundary is offset by near-orthogonal structures, which are interpreted as faults. At least one of these trends corresponds with a linear zone of epicentres. The temporal and spatial distributions of epicentres associated with the 1968 Meckering earthquake (ML 6.9) suggest that the second-order distribution of seismicity in the SWSZ can be explained by the ‘intersection model’, whereby stresses are amplified by space problems associated with displacements on crosscutting faults.It is speculated that a zone of high density and high seismic velocity in the lower crust may also be a second-order control on the local seismicity. However, confirmation awaits better delineation of the extent of this zone.     

Seismic reversal pattern for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, MW 7.6 earthquake

We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Seismic risk assessment of the 3rd Azerbaijan gas pipeline in Iran

A comprehensive seismic risk assessment has been performed for the existing route of the 3rd Azerbaijan natural gas buried pipeline in Iran. The major active seismic sources along the pipeline were identified and the geometrical parameters as well as the seismicity rates were determined. The seismic hazard assessment of the ground vibrations along the pipeline was performed in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis using the CRISIS 2007 software. All of the components of the gas pipeline along the route were identified and the corresponding fragility functions are established through the methodology described in the HAZUS guideline (HAZUS MH MR4 Technical manual 2007 Department of homeland security emergency. Preparedness and Response Directorate, FEMA). A detailed cost analyses was taken into consideration based on the expert opinions in the National Iranian Gas Company, in order to provide more practical loss model for the pipeline route. Also, a simple method is suggested in order to account for the vent gas in the total loss estimation. The spatial analysis of the hazard function layer in combination with the loss model layer, in Geographical Information System  (GIS) platform, reveal the financial consequences of different earthquake scenarios.     

Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants

From 2000 to 2004 a large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PEGASOS) was created and performed as a research project, sponsored by the Swiss NPP utilities to improve the assessment methodology for seismic risk in support of the plant-specific seismic PRAs. The project followed the methodology of the SSHAC [Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC), 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. NU-REG/CR-6372] procedures at its most elaborate way—level 4. Before practical implementation was to occur, a detailed review was performed including validation tests and analysis of uncertainty propagation. This paper presents the main results of the review. The review revealed that current PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) methodology as based on logic trees, in conjunction with the SSHAC procedures, potentially leads to a significant overestimation of the seismic hazard in areas with low seismic activity due to the inherent possibilities of unconstrained accumulation of uncertainties. The preliminary results of the project did not pass any of our logical geological–scientific benchmark tests used in our attempts to perform a validation process of the PEGASOS analysis method. Some of the problems encountered are of generic nature and shall be studied carefully before making the decision of whether or not the Swiss nuclear power industry will adopt the recommended use of SSHAC-procedures as a basis for the evaluation of the seismic hazard for individual nuclear power plant seismic PRA without correction.     

Seismic slip rates,potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault

The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I _max~8–9, M _max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km². Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M _max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).