Paleo-climate of the central European uplands during the last glacial maximum based on glacier mass-balance modeling

During the last glacial maximum (LGM), glaciers existed in scattered mountainous locations in central Europe between the major ice masses of Fennoscandia and the Alps. A positive degree-day glacier mass-balance model is used to constrain paleo-climate conditions associated with reconstructed LGM glacier extents of four central European upland regions: the Vosges Mountains, the Black Forest, the Bavarian Forest, and the Giant Mountains. With reduced precipitation (25–75%), reflecting a drier LGM climate, the modeling yields temperature depressions of 8–15°C. To reproduce past glaciers more severe cooling is required in the west than in the east, indicating a strong west–east temperature anomaly gradient.     

青藏高原及毗邻山地利用冰川地貌重建古气候的研究综述

利用冰川地貌定量重建冰期时的古气候特征是探讨冰川驱动机制的关键.利用冰川地貌反演古气候的模型主要有两类:基于物质平衡线高度变化和基于估算古冰川表面物质平衡的气候重建模型,因其原理、所需数据量的不同,适用性存在着差异,应用时需根据冰川区的具体特征选取多种模型重建古气候,提高模拟的精度.青藏高原及毗邻山地已有的基于古冰川的...     

Modeled patterns of Late Pleistocene glacier inception and growth in the Southern and Central Rocky Mountains,USA: sensitivity to climate change and paleoclimatic implications

High-resolution modern climate data for the Southern and Central Rocky Mountains provide a starting point for analysis of climate changes necessary to produce regional Late Pleistocene glaciation. A GIS-based model was used to assess the sensitivity of glaciation in different ranges to climatic change and the combinations of temperature and precipitation change necessary to sustain the last glacial maximum (LGM) extent of glaciation in each range. Extensive glaciation initiates first in the Wind River Range of Wyoming under every climate change scenario tested. In absence of precipitation change a summer temperature depression of 6–8 °C would be necessary to maintain LGM ice extents in Colorado and Wyoming. If precipitation was halved, necessary summer temperature depression would be 8–10 °C; if precipitation was doubled, a depression of 3.5–5.5 °C would suffice. Given model uncertainties, these values may underestimate necessary temperature depression by as much as 2 °C. Under all scenarios tested, LGM glaciation in Utah, particularly the Wasatch Range, requires either more temperature depression for given precipitation change, or more precipitation for a given temperature depression than is required in the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies. A summer temperature depression of 7 °C, which would suffice to sustain LGM ice extent with little change from modern precipitation in the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies, would need to be coupled with a near doubling of precipitation to maintain LGM ice extent in the Wasatch Range. This difference appears to reflect LGM precipitation enhancement in the Wasatch Range, and to a lesser degree the Uinta Mountains, resulting from the presence of Lake Bonneville immediately upwind of these ranges.     

Glaciers and climate in Pacific Far NE Russia during the Last Glacial Maximum

A combined geomorphological–physical model approach is used to generate three‐dimensional reconstructions of glaciers in Pacific Far NE Russia during the global Last glacial Maximum (gLGM). The horizontal dimensions of these ice masses are delineated by moraines, their surface elevations are estimated using an iterative flowline model and temporal constraints upon their margins are derived from published age estimates. The equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) of these ice masses are estimated, and gLGM climate is reconstructed using a simple degree–day melt model. The results indicate that, during the gLGM, ice masses occupying the Pekulney, Kankaren and Sredinny mountains of Pacific Far NE Russia were of valley glacier and ice field type. These glaciers were between 7 and 80 km in length, and were considerably less extensive than during pre‐LGM phases of advance. gLGM ice masses in these regions had ELAs of between 575 ± 22 m and 1035 ± 41 m (above sea level) – corresponding to an ELA depression of 350–740 m, relative to present. Data indicate that, in the Pekulney Mountains, this ELA depression occurred because of a 6.4°C reduction in mean July temperature, and 200 mm a^?1 reduction in precipitation, relative to present. Thus reconstructions support a restricted view of gLGM glaciation in Pacific Far NE Russia and indicate that the region's aridity precluded the development of large continental ice sheets. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Younger Dryas climatic conditions in the Za Mnichem Valley (Polish High Tatra Mountains) based on exposure‐age dating and glacier‐climate modelling

Cosmogenic ³⁶Cl was measured in bedrock and moraine boulders in the Za Mnichem Valley (High Tatra Mountains). The post‐LGM deglaciation of the study area occurred about 15.9 ka ago. The northernmost part of the valley slopes was ice‐free around 15 ka ago. The terminal moraine on the valley threshold was finally stabilized 12.5 ka ago during the Younger Dryas cold event (Greenland Stadial 1). At that time, the Za Mnichem glacier was 1.3 km long and had an area of 0.57 km². The AAR equilibrium line of the glacier was located at 1990 m a.s.l., which corresponds to an ELA depression of ～500 m compared to today. The mean summer temperature was colder by 4°–4.5°C than the present‐day temperature. The mean annual temperature was colder by 6°C than today. Such conditions suggest a decrease of the annual precipitation by ～15–25% compared with the present‐day annual average. These data indicate a probable uniform temperature change across central and western Europe, with the precipitation being the most significant factor affecting the mass balance of mountain glaciers. The spatial distribution of balance data suggests increasing continentality towards the east during the Younger Dryas.     

Recognition and palaeoclimatic implications of late Quaternary niche glaciation in eastern Lesotho

Geomorphic evidence of former glaciation in the high Drakensberg of southern Africa has proven controversial, with conflicting glacial and non‐glacial interpretations suggested for many landforms. This paper presents new geomorphological, sedimentological and micromorphological data, and glacier mass‐balance modelling for a site in the Leqooa Valley, eastern Lesotho, preserving what are considered to be moraines of a former niche glacier that existed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The geomorphology and macro‐sedimentology of the deposits display characteristics of both active and passive transport by glacial processes. However, micromorphological analyses indicate a more complex history of glacial deposition and subsequent reworking by mass movement processes. The application of a glacier reconstruction technique to determine whether this site could have supported a glacier indicates a reconstructed glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of 3136 m a.s.l. and palaeoglacier mass balance characteristics comparable with modern analogues, reflecting viable, if marginal glaciation. Radiocarbon dates obtained from organic sediment within the moraines indicate that these are of LGM age. The reconstructed palaeoclimatic conditions during the LGM suggest that snow accumulation in the Drakensberg was significantly higher than considered by other studies, and has substantial relevance for tuning regional climate models for southern Africa during the last glacial cycle. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Younger Dryas glaciation in the southeastern Monadhliath Mountains,Scotland: glacier reconstruction and palaeoclimate implications

Geomorphological mapping of locally nourished glaciers was conducted in four glens in the southeastern Monadhliath Mountains, Scotland. Three glaciers are interpreted to be of Younger Dryas age based on geomorphological similarity to features in other Scottish upland areas known to have been glaciated during the Younger Dryas, and on comparison to adjacent ice‐free areas in the lower glens where landform‐sediment assemblages typically reflect peri/paraglacial readjustment during the stadial. Here we reconstruct Younger Dryas glacier termini based on moraine alignments and associated geomorphological and sedimentological evidence. An adjacent wide plateau area at high altitude may have permitted extensive ice accumulation, but no unequivocal geomorphological signature is evident. To establish upper glacier limits, a series of ice profiles are modelled. The results yield a range of realistic glacier configurations bracketed between two distinct scenarios: a valley glaciation with the glaciers' upper limit on the plateau edge, and a low‐domed icecap centred on the plateau with ice flowing radially into the lower glens. Reconstructed equilibrium‐line altitudes are 795 m a.s.l. for the valley‐glacier scenario and 894 m a.s.l. for the icecap scenario. Calculated mean ablation‐season temperatures at the ELA are 1.2°C and 0.4°C for the valley‐glacier and the icecap scenario, respectively, from which we infer mean annual precipitation rates between 323 and 520 mm a^?1. Palaeoclimate results indicate a stadial climate in central Scotland 65–79% more arid than at present, comparable to that of western Norway for the stadial and to the present‐day Canadian Arctic.     

Palaeotemperature reconstructions of the European permafrost zone during marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 compared with climate model results

A palaeotemperature reconstruction based on periglacial phenomena in Europe north of approximately 51 °N, is compared with high‐resolution regional climate model simulations of the marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 (Stage 3) palaeoclimate. The experiments represent Stage 3 warm (interstadial), Stage 3 cold (stadial) and Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The palaeotemperature reconstruction deviates considerably for the Stage 3 cold climate experiments, with mismatches up to 11 °C for the mean annual air temperature and up to 15 °C for the winter temperature. However, in this reconstruction various factors linking climate and permafrost have not been taken into account. In particular a relatively thin snow cover and high climatic variability of the glacial climate could have influenced temperature limits for ice‐wedge growth. Based on modelling the 0 °C mean annual ground temperature proves to be an appropriate upper temperature limit. Using this limit, mismatches with the Stage 3 cold climate experiments have been reduced but still remain. We therefore assume that the Stage 3 ice wedges were generated during short (decadal time‐scale) intervals of extreme cold climate, below the mean temperatures indicated by the Stage 3 cold climate model simulations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New evidence for a reduced water balance in East Africa during the Last Glacial Maximum: implication for model-data comparison

Some syntheses of lake-level data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in East Africa (10°N and 30°S, East of 25°E) show apparently wetter conditions than present for some basins, whereas palaeovegetation reconstruction indicates a generally dry climate. PMIP GCM simulations for the LGM support both scenarios for this region when run under different boundary conditions. Here, we compare three new records from lakes in the data-poor southern part of East Africa; Lake Malawi, Lake Massoko, and Lake Rukwa. We also re-assess previously published lake-level data and apply a salinity transfer function to the diatom record from Lake Manyara. Our results show that in contrast to previous interpretations, these lakes were at least as low as today at the LGM and are thus in agreement with the palaeovegetation data. Relative drought across East Africa is best simulated by GCMs that use computed SSTs rather than the higher CLIMAP values. Lower SSTs and the presence of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets must have been dominant over any monsoon precipitation rise caused by astronomically induced summer insolation enhancement in the southern African tropics.     

青藏高原东南巴松措流域和派山谷末次冰盛期冰川与气候重建

末次冰盛期(LGM)时全球大范围降温,青藏高原冰川大规模扩张,重建LGM时期古冰川规模对认识高原冰川水资源演化及古气候条件有重要的科学意义。根据青藏高原东南巴松措流域及派山谷两地的冰川地貌及其10Be暴露年代数据,本文应用冰川纵剖面模型定量重建了两地冰川在LGM时期的范围、冰储量和平衡线高度(ELA)等参数,并通过冰川气候模型恢复了LGM时的气候条件。结果表明：巴松措流域LGM时期的冰川面积约为982.3km²,是现代冰川面积的4.5倍,冰储量约为274.4km³;派山谷无现代冰川分布,LGM时期的冰川面积达5.76km²,冰储量约为0.51km³;LGM时期两冰川的平衡线高度分别为4 460～4 547m和3 569～3 694m,与现代冰川相比分别降低了535m和1 034～1 184m。在降水减少60%的情况下,考虑LGM以来的构造剥蚀对平衡线高度变化的影响,LGM时期巴松措流域和派山谷冰川的夏季平均气温分别比现在低约2.96～4.89℃和5.09～6.99℃。     

Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial

Kjellström, E., Brandefelt, J., Näslund, J.‐O., Smith, B., Strandberg, G., Voelker, A. H. L. & Wohlfarth, B. 2010: Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00143.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. State‐of‐the‐art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off‐line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land–sea distribution, ice‐sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 °C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy‐based sea‐surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice‐sheet configuration, with large ice‐free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice‐sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice‐free conditions in south‐central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice‐sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.     

中国北方平原盆地地下水氢氧同位素组成特征

在系统收集整理中国北方河北平原、太原盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地以及银川平原的地下水氢氧同位素资料基础上,依据同位素形成演化相似性原理,对比分析同位素组成得出:深层地下水是在过去更寒冷的气候条件下形成;研究区的大气降水不但在现代气候条件下存在大陆效应和高程效应,而且在 25 kaB.P.以来的古气候条件下也存在大陆效应和高程效应;古气候条件下各盆地平原之间的蒸发强度的差异可能比现代气候条件下各盆地平原之间的蒸发强度的差异大.     

Climate and vegetation in Hokkaido, northern Japan, since the LGM: Pollen records from core GH02-1030 off Tokachi in the northwestern Pacific

Vegetation and climate since the LGM in eastern Hokkaido were investigated based on a pollen record from marine core GH02-1030 from off Tokachi in the northwestern Pacific. We also examined pollen spectra in surface samples from Sakhalin to compare and understand the climatic conditions of Hokkaido during the last glacial period. Vegetation in the Tokachi region in the LGM (22–17 ka) was an open boreal forest dominated by Picea and Larix. During the last deglaciation (17–10 ka), vegetation was characterized by abundant Betula. In the Kenbuchi Basin, central Hokkaido, a remarkable increase of Larix and Pinus occurred in the LGM and the last deglaciation, which was assigned as the “Kenbuchi Stadial.” Comparison of climatic data between the core GH02-1030 and that of Kenbuchi Basin demonstrates that variations in temperature and precipitation were larger in inland Hokkaido than in the maritime area of the Pacific coast. During the LGM in the Tokachi region, the August mean temperature was about 5 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 40% lower than today. In the Kenbuchi Basin, central Hokkaido, the August mean temperature was about 8 °C lower, and annual precipitation was half that of today. During the last deglaciation, August mean temperatures were about 3 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 30% lower than today in the Tokachi region. In the Kenbuchi Basin, August mean temperatures were about 5–8 °C lower, and annual precipitation was about 40–60% lower than today. Cold ocean water and a strengthened summer monsoon after 15 ka may have resulted in the formation of advection fogs, reduced summer temperatures, and a decrease in the seasonal temperature difference in the Tokachi district, which established favorable maritime conditions for Betula forests.     

Middle‐Late Pleistocene Glacial Lakes in the Grand Canyon of the Tsangpo River,Tibet

Many moraines formed between Daduka and Chibai in the Tsangpo River valley since Middle Pleistocene. A prominent set of lacustrine and alluvial terraces on the valley margin along both the Tsangpo and Nyang Rivers formed during Quaternary glacial epoch demonstrate lakes were created by damming of the river. Research was conducted on the geological environment, contained sediments, spatial distribution, timing, and formation and destruction of these paleolakes. The lacustrine sediments 14C (10537±268 aBP at Linzhi Brick and Tile Factory, 22510±580 aBP and 13925±204 aBP at Bengga, 21096±1466 aBP at Yusong) and a series of ESR (electron spin resonance) ages at Linzhi town and previous data by other experts, paleolakes persisted for 691~505 kaBP middle Pleistocene ice age, 75–40 kaBP the early stage of last glacier, 27–8 kaBP Last Glacier Maximum (LGM), existence time of lakes gradually shorten represents glacial scale and dam moraine supply potential gradually cut down, paleolakes and dam scale also gradually diminished. This article calculated the average lacustrine sedimentary rate of Gega paleolake in LGM was 12.5 mm/a, demonstrates Mount Namjagbarwa uplifted strongly at the same time, the sedimentary rate of Gega paleolake is more larger than that of enclosed lakes of plateau inland shows the climatic variation of Mount Namjagbarwa is more larger and plateau margin uplifted more quicker than plateau inland. This article analyzed formation and decay cause about the Zelunglung glacier on the west flank of Mount Namjagbarwa got into the Tsangpo River valley and blocked it for tectonic and climatic factors. There is a site of blocking the valley from Gega to Chibai. This article according to moraines and lacustrine sediments yielded paleolakes scale: the lowest lake base altitude 2850 m, the highest lake surface altitude 3585 m, 3240 m and 3180 m, area 2885 km2, 820 km2 and 810 km2, lake maximum depth of 735 m, 390 m and 330 m. We disclose the reason that previous experts discovered there were different age moraines dividing line of altitude 3180 m at the entrance of the Tsangpo Grand Canyon is dammed lake erosive decay under altitude 3180 m moraines in the last glacier era covering moraines in the early ice age of late Pleistocene, top 3180 m in the last glacier moraine remained because ancient dammed lakes didn’t erode it under 3180 m moraines in the early ice age of late Pleistocene exposed. The reason of the top elevation 3585 m moraines in the middle Pleistocene ice age likes that of altitude 3180 m. There were three times dammed lakes by glacier blocking the Tsangpo River during Quaternary glacial period. During other glacial and interglacial period the Zelunglung glacier often extended the valley but moraine supplemental speed of the dam was smaller than that of fluvial erosion and moraine movement, dam quickly disappeared and didn’t form stable lake.     

云南玉龙雪山第四纪冰期与冰川演化模式

云南玉龙雪山高峰区有现代冰川１９条,面积１１．６１Ｋｍ＾２,冰川融水汇入金沙江。在现代冰川外围有丰富的古冰川遗迹,可划分３次更新世冰期,即大理、丽江和云杉枰冰期。相当于欧洲阿尔卑斯的玉木里斯和民德冰期。其中以丽江冰期冰川规模最大,当时,河水冰期的白水河冰川长２．５Ｋｍ,冰川 演化模式与梅里雪山、贡嘎山东坡相同,均属藏东南型,而与青藏高原广大高山区以例数第三次冰不川最大规模有别。主要是它们位于青藏高     

Timing and style of Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Queer Shan,northern Hengduan Mountains in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Glacial landforms and sediments provide evidence for the existence of two Late Pleistocene major glacial advances in the Queer Shan, northern Hengduan Mountains in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. In the current study, optically stimulated luminescence and electron spin resonance dating results reveal that the two glacial advances occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in MIS 2, respectively. Geomorphic evidence shows that the glacial advance during MIS 3 was more extensive than that in MIS 2. This glacial advance is synchronous with other glaciated areas in the Himalaya and Tibet, but contrasts with global ice volumes that reached their maximum extent during the LGM. Glaciers in the Queer Shan are of the summer accumulation type and are mainly fed by precipitation from the south Asian monsoon. Palaeoclimate proxies show that during MIS 3 the south Asian monsoon strengthened and extended further north into the Tibetan Plateau to supply more precipitation as snow at high altitudes. This in turn led to positive glacier mass balances and caused glaciers to advance. However, during the LGM, despite cooler temperature than in MIS 3, the weakened south Asian monsoon and the associated reduced precipitation were not as favourable for glacier expansion as in MIS 3. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Last Glacial Maximum equilibrium-line altitude trends and precipitation patterns in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southern Colorado, USA

Precipitation patterns during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Rocky Mountains varied due to the influence of the continental ice sheets and pluvial lakes. However, no constraints have been placed on potential changes of southeasterly Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture that today contributes considerable precipitation to the easternmost ranges of the southern and middle Rocky Mountains. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado are ideally situated to assess the relative importance of westerly and southeasterly-derived moisture during the LGM. Based on reconstructions of 30 palaeoglaciers in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, we find that LGM equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) on the east side of the range were systematically 100–200 m lower than ELAs on the west side. The observed ELA pattern is strikingly similar to modern precipitation patterns in the study area, suggesting that southeasterly-derived precipitation had a significant influence on the mass balances of LGM glaciers.     

Glaciations and paleoclimate of Mount Erciyes,central Turkey,since the Last Glacial Maximum,inferred from 36Cl cosmogenic dating and glacier modeling

Forty-four boulders from moraines in two glacial valleys of Mount Erciyes (38.53°N, 35.45°E, 3917 m), central Turkey, dated with cosmogenic chlorine-36 (³⁶Cl), indicate four periods of glacial activity in the past 22 ka (1 ka = 1000 calendar years). Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glaciers were the most extensive, reaching 6 km in length and descending to an altitude of 2150 m above sea level. These glaciers started retreating 21.3 ± 0.9 ka (1σ) ago. They readvanced and retreated by 14.6 ± 1.2 ka ago (Lateglacial), and again by 9.3 ± 0.5 ka ago (Early Holocene). The latest advance took place 3.8 ± 0.4 ka ago (Late Holocene). Using glacier modeling together with paleoclimate proxy data from the region, we reconstructed the paleoclimate at these four discrete times. The results show that LGM climate was 8–11 °C colder than today and moisture levels were somewhat similar to modern values, with a range between 20% more and 25% less than today. The analysis of Lateglacial advance suggests that the climate was colder by 4.5–6.4 °C based on up to 1.5 times wetter conditions. The Early Holocene was 2.1–4.9 °C colder and up to twice as wet as today, while the Late Holocene was 2.4–3 °C colder and its precipitation amounts approached to similar conditions as today. Our paleoclimate reconstructions show a general trend of warming for the last 22 ka, and an increase of moisture until Early Holocene, and a decrease after that time. The recent glacier terminates at 3450 m on the northwest side of the mountain. It is a remnant from the last advance (possibly during the Little Ice Age). Repeated measurements of glacier length between 1902 and 2008 reveal a retreat rate of 4.2 m per year, which corresponds to a warming rate of 0.9–1.2 °C per century.     

洱海沉积物化学元素与古气候演化

测定了洱海沉积物中常量和微量元素的含量,利用因子分析方法,识别了控制沉积物化学组成的三个主要因子：流域侵蚀因子、早期成岩因子和湖 内生碳酸钙了。进一步 研究还发现,流域了和湖泊内生碳酸钙沉淀因子的因子得分曲线作为气候干湿和冷暖变化的代用曲线。从而为古气候重建提供了一条有效的新途径。结合沉积的柱＾２１０Ｐｂ和＾１３７Ｃ计年结果,初步评价了６００多年来洱海区域气候及环境演化历史,提示他该区暖干与冷湿相     

中国山西张村上新世气候与海拔的初步研究

基于前人山西榆社盆地张村植物大化石和花粉组合资料,运用分布区叠加分析法,初步重建了山西张村上新世气候参数值和古海拔高度。研究结果表明,由不同数据来源计算的张村古气候参数数值变化范围大多落在今天的暖温带到北亚热带区间;依据原地埋藏的植物大化石组合推出上新世时山西张村地区存在植被垂直分带,周围为山地地形,由此估测的古湖海拔高程范围在400～1 000 m,明显低于今天约1 043 m的海拔高度,表明在上新世之后位于黄土高原东缘的张村地区还有抬升;支持前人关于更新世以来晋东南地区的整体缓慢抬升的推测。