A numerical simulation of aerosols’ direct effects on tropopause height

The direct effects of sulfate aerosol, dust aerosol, carbonaceous aerosol, and total combined aerosols on the tropopause height are simulated with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1 (CAM3.1). A decrease of global mean tropopause height induced by sulfate, carbonaceous aerosol, and total combined aerosols is found, and a tropopause height increase is induced by dust aerosol. Sulfate aerosol decreases the tropospheric temperature and increases the stratospheric temperature. These effects cause a decrease in the height of the tropopause. In contrast, carbonaceous and total combined aerosols increase both the tropospheric and the stratospheric temperatures, and they also cause a decrease in the height of the tropopause. The changes in the tropopause height show highly statistically significant correlations with the changes in the tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures. The changes in the tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures are related to the changes in the radiative heat rate, cloud cover, and latent heat, but none of these factors absolutely dominate the temperature change.     

近年平流层气溶胶模式研究综述

平流层气溶胶在全球大气的辐射与化学平衡中起着重要作用,对全球气候变化有着重要的影响。数值模拟研究是研究平流层气溶胶浓度、粒径分布及其化学组成的重要手段之一。回顾了平流层气溶胶模式的发展历程,并对现今研究中较有代表性的5种模式进行了比较,着重考察了模拟结果在OCS、SO2分布情况等方面与实测数据的相符程度。结果发现5种模式均可再现平流层气溶胶和它的主要前体气体分布的大部分特征,但同时也都存在各自的局限。最后展望了平流层气溶胶模式未来的发展方向以及需要改进的问题。     

Analysis of three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the lower stratosphere

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes of quasi-stationary wave propagation in the lower stratosphere were computed for each month from November to March for the period from 1958 to 2007. It is shown that the upward planetary wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere generally occurs over the northern Eurasia, while their weak downward propagation is observed in Labrador and southern Greenland regions in the lower stratosphere. Interannual variations of the vertical EP fluxes also have the dipole-like spatial pattern with the opposite anomalies in the West and East hemispheres which are most prominent in January–February. Significant differences in the interaction of the zonal circulation of the stratosphere in the beginning of winter (November–December) and mid-to-late winter (January–March) are revealed. Intensification of the planetary waves’ penetration into the stratosphere in December causes changes in the stratospheric dynamics, creating the “preconditions” for the stratospheric warming appearances in January, but such a mechanism is not detected in February. In the years with the cold polar vortex, the “stratospheric bridge” is formed with the strengthening of the upward EP flux over the northern Eurasia and downward EP flux over the North Atlantic.     

对流层气溶胶的直接气候效应对平流层的影响

通过WACCM-3模式中气溶胶光学厚度与卫星资料的对比发现,模式可以很好地再现全球气溶胶的主要分布特征,但在一些区域还存在数值上的差异。利用数值试验研究对流层气溶胶的直接气候效应对平流层气候的影响,结果表明:对流层气溶胶对平流层气候有明显影响,平流层化学过程在这一影响中起重要作用,而对流层气溶胶对平流层辐射的影响不是其直接气候效应对平流层影响的主要原因。其机制可能是对流层气溶胶改变对流层的辐射平衡,影响对流层的温度和大气环流,进而影响行星波的上传,使得平流层气候发生变化;影响区域主要位于高纬度和极地地区,南半球的变化比北半球大,温度变化最大达10 K,纬向风变化最大可达12 m/s,臭氧体积分数最多减少0.8×10-6。     

Influence of aerosol-radiative forcings on the diurnal and seasonal cycles of rainfall over West Africa and Eastern Atlantic Ocean using GCM simulations

Effects of aerosol radiative forcing on the diurnal and seasonal cycles of precipitation over West Africa and eastern Atlantic Ocean are investigated for the boreal summer season: June–July–August. An eight year (2000–2007) average of GCM simulated rainfall data is compared with the corresponding TRMM rainfall data. The comparison shows that the amplitude of the diurnal cycles of rainfall over land and ocean are reasonably well simulated. Over land, the phase of the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks several hours earlier than that of the TRMM data. Corresponding differences over the ocean(s) are relatively smaller. Some of the key features of the aerosol induced model simulated field anomalies are: (a) aerosol direct radiative forcing which increases the atmospheric stability and reduces the daytime moist convection and convective precipitation; (b) the aerosol induced changes in the diurnal cycle of precipitation are out of phase with those of the TRMM data over land, but are in-phase over the ocean; (c) aerosols reduce the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land and enhance it over ocean. However, the phase of the diurnal cycle is not affected much by the aerosol radiative forcing both over land and ocean. During the boreal summer, aerosol radiative forcing and induced circulation and precipitation cool the Sahel and the southern part of Sahara desert more than the adjacent areas to the north and south, thereby shifting the peak meridional temperature gradient northward. Consequently, an anomalous easterly jet is found north of its climatological location. This anomalous jet is associated with increased cyclonic circulation to the south of its axis, resulting in an anomalous monsoon rain belt in the Sahel.     

Two climatic states and feedbacks on thermohaline circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

The McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2) is employed to study climate–thermohaline circulation (THC) interactions in a pre -industrial climate, with a special focus on the feedbacks on the THC from other climate system components. The MPM-2, a new version of the MPM, has an extended model domain from 90S to 90N, active winds and no oceanic heat and freshwater flux adjustments. In the MPM-2, there are mainly two stable modes for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the ‘present-day’ forcing (present-day solar forcing and the pre-industrial atmospheric CO₂ level of 280 ppm). The ‘on’ mode has an active North Atlantic deep water formation, while the ‘off’ mode has no such deep water formation. By comparing the ‘off’ mode climate state with its ‘on’ mode analogue, we find that there exist many large differences between the two climate states, which originate from large changes in the oceanic meridional heat transports. By suppressing or isolating each process associated with a continental ice sheet over North America, sea ice, the atmospheric hydrological cycle and vegetation, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are investigated. Sensitivity studies investigating the role of varying continental ice growth and sea ice meridional transport in the resumption of the Atlantic MOC are also carried out. The results show that a fast ice sheet growth and an enhanced southward sea ice transport significantly favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC in the MPM-2. In contrast to this, the feedback from the atmospheric hydrological cycle is a weak positive one. The vegetation-albedo feedback could enhance continental ice sheet growth and thus could also favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC. However, before the shut-down of the Atlantic MOC, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are very weak.     

东亚夏季风环流对气溶胶分布的影响

用2001—2012年逐月的MODIS-TERRA卫星观测气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)资料和NCEP/NCAR风场资料,分析了5—8月东亚地区AOD的时-空分布特征,研究东亚夏季风环流对气溶胶时-空分布的影响。主要结论如下:5—8月的中国东部及邻近海洋上AOD有着显著的季节演变特征,尤其是32.5 °N附近的AOD高值区,其强度和范围在5—8月逐渐增强然后又减弱。东亚夏季风通过环流输送作用对各地的AOD产生了不同程度的影响,使中国南部AOD减少,而华北和东北地区AOD增加。在强、弱季风年背景下,7月观测的AOD差异与环流输送作用差异的分布特征有着一定的相似性,体现出东亚夏季风年际变化对气溶胶分布的影响。在东亚夏季风演变的不同阶段,季风环流对气溶胶输送大部分情况下,可解释局地气溶胶变化10%~20%的方差。     

Simulation of Mt. Pinatubo Volcanic Aerosol with the Hamburg Climate Model ECHAM4

Summary  We study the three-dimensional transport of Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cloud with the climate model ECHAM4. In order to obtain model results comparable with observations a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied, which forces prognostic model variables towards the observations. A comparison of the simulated aerosol distribution with satellite data reveals good agreement for the first months after the eruption. The model, however, is unable to simulate the tropical aerosol maximum in 1992 and also overestimates the vertical downward and northward transport of aerosols. Substantial improvement was achieved with the introduction of reduced advective vertical transport through the 380 K isentropic layer. Heating rates and top of the atmosphere fluxes, which were calculated online for the first half year after the eruption, are in the observed range. A comparison of Pinatubo simulations between three different vertical ECHAM4 versions (ECHAM4 L19, ECHAM4 L39, MA/ECHAM4) indicates that a vertical resolution of ≈ 700 m in the tropopause region is sufficient to realistically reduce the vertical transport through the tropopause. Consideration of the upper branch of the Brewer Dobson circulation in the MA/ECHAM4 model improves the geographical distribution of the volcanic cloud. The application of a relaxation technique can further reduce major shortcomings of stratospheric simulations with the standard climate model. There remain, however some critical points in the global transport characteristics in all three models which are not fully understood. Received December 19, 1997 Revised July 22, 1998     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century

 The potential climatic consequences of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and sulfate aerosol loading are investigated for the years 1900 to 2100 based on five simulations with the CCCma coupled climate model. The five simulations comprise a control experiment without change in GHG or aerosol amount, three independent simulations with increasing GHG and aerosol forcing, and a simulation with increasing GHG forcing only. Climate warming accelerates from the present with global mean temperatures simulated to increase by 1.7 °C to the year 2050 and by a further 2.7 °C by the year 2100. The warming is non-uniform as to hemisphere, season, and underlying surface. Changes in interannual variability of temperature show considerable structure and seasonal dependence. The effect of the comparatively localized negative radiative forcing associated with the aerosol is to retard and reduce the warming by about 0.9 °C at 2050 and 1.2 °C at 2100. Its primary effect on temperature is to counteract the global pattern of GHG-induced warming and only secondarily to affect local temperatures suggesting that the first order transient climate response of the system is determined by feedback processes and only secondarily by the local pattern of radiative forcing. The warming is accompanied by a more active hydrological cycle with increases in precipitation and evaporation rates that are delayed by comparison with temperature increases. There is an “El Nino-like” shift in precipitation and an overall increase in the interannual variability of precipitation. The effect of the aerosol forcing is again primarily to delay and counteract the GHG-induced increase. Decreases in soil moisture are common but regionally dependent and interannual variability changes show considerable structure. Snow cover and sea-ice retreat. A PNA-like anomaly in mean sea-level pressure with an enhanced Aleutian low in northern winter is associated with the tropical shift in precipitation regime. The interannual variability of mean sea-level pressure generally decreases with largest decreases in the tropical Indian ocean region. Changes to the ocean thermal structure are associated with a spin-down of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation together with a decrease in its variability. The effect of aerosol forcing, although modest, differs from that for most other quantities in that it does not act primarily to counteract the GHG forcing effect. The barotropic stream function in the ocean exhibits modest change in the north Pacific but accelerating changes in much of the Southern Ocean and particularly in the north Atlantic where the gyre spins down in conjunction with the decrease in the thermohaline circulation. The results differ in non-trivial ways from earlier equilibrium 2 × CO₂ results with the CCCma model as a consequence of the coupling to a fully three-dimensional ocean model and the evolving nature of the forcing. Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999     

Synoptic comparison of cold events in winter and summerin Melbourne and Perth

Summary  Unseasonably cold weather episodes have the potential to cause dislocation to many aspects of society, regardless of the season in which they occur. In this work we devise a method for quantitatively identifying extreme cold events in such a way that it is not biased to the winter season (as is usual in most other studies). We have applied this method to the daily maximum temperatures (over the period January 1972 to June 1991) in the southern Australian cities of Melbourne and Perth. We identify 10 cold events in winter and summer for the cities. Analyses were performed to determine the synoptic environment in which these events occurred. The most common synoptic type in these samples was the ‘classic’, which is characterised by, amongst other factors, the passage of a cold front over the city on the day of the outbreak, and the transport of air from subantarctic latitudes. Melbourne recorded five such events in summer and six in winter, while seven and eight occurred in the two seasons for Perth. The circulation features and characteristics of other synoptic types identified with these episodes is also examined. The mean synoptic anomalies which are coincident with these cold events are analysed. For both cities and seasons there is a ‘high-low’ anomalous dipole in the regional MSLP pattern, with the high located in the ‘upstream’ quadrant from the anomalous cyclone. Having said this, the relative importance of the two features of the dipole in being associated with the cold event strongly depended on the city and season under consideration. The research shows that the regional structures associated with cold events in Melbourne and Perth bear some similarity, but also display a number of significant differences. These differences are associated partly with the different climatological and synoptic settings in which these cities find themselves, and the nature of their seasonality. Received October 10, 1999/Revised April 7, 2000     

Lidar and Sun photometer observations of atmospheric boundary-layer characteristics over an urban area in a mountain valley

We present measurements of the vertical aerosol structure and the aerosol optical depth in the lower troposphere performed above the city of Sofia (an urban area situated in a mountain valley), western Bulgaria by means of a ground-based aerosol lidar operating continuously for a number of years. The lidar measurements were accompanied by measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near infrared regions of the spectrum performed in October 2004 using Microtops II radiometers. The maximum values of the AOD were found to occur 1–2 h before the complete development of the atmospheric boundary layer, i.e. during the residual layer destruction, which confirms our hypothesis concerning the slope circulation effect on the processes taking place in the atmospheric boundary layer. The AOD values obtained by the lidar are lower than those taken by the sun photometer. Further, the AOD exhibits two different types of behaviour. In the case of a ‘clear atmosphere’ (i.e. in the absence of volcanic eruptions and/or dust transport from the Sahara) most of the aerosol accumulated within the atmospheric boundary layer over the urban area considered. The combined use of the two instruments allows the comparison between the optical characteristics of the atmospheric aerosol (e.g. aerosol extinction coefficient, etc.) obtained by the lidar and through an independent method (sun photometer).     

A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol

Stratospheric aerosol, noted after large volcanic eruptions since at least the late 1800s, were first measured in the late 1950s, with the modern continuous record beginning in the 1970s. Stratospheric aerosol, both volcanic and non-volcanic are sulfuric acid droplets with radii (concentrations) on the order of 0.1–0.5 µm (0.5–0.005 cm^− 3), increasing by factors of 2–4 (10–10³) after large volcanic eruptions. The source of the sulfur for the aerosol is either through direct injection from sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions, or from tropical injection of tropospheric air containing OCS, SO₂, and sulfate particles. The life cycle of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol, consisting of photo-dissociation and oxidation of sulfur source gases, nucleation/condensation in the tropics, transport pole-ward and downward in the global planetary wave driven tropical pump, leads to a quasi steady state relative maximum in particle number concentration at around 20 km in the mid latitudes. Stratospheric aerosol have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation balance for several years following volcanic eruptions. Away from large eruptions, the direct radiation impact is small and well characterized; however, these particles also may play a role in the nucleation of near tropopause cirrus, and thus indirectly affect radiation. Stratospheric aerosol play a larger role in the chemical, particularly ozone, balance of the stratosphere. In the mid latitudes they interact with both nitrous oxides and chlorine reservoirs, thus indirectly affecting ozone. In the polar regions they provide condensation sites for polar stratospheric clouds which then provide the surfaces necessary to convert inactive to active chlorine leading to polar ozone loss. Until the mid 1990s the modern record has been dominated by three large sulfur-rich eruptions: Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991), thus definitive conclusions concerning the trend of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol could only recently be made. Although anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ have changed somewhat over the past 30 years, the measurements during volcanically quiescent periods indicate no long term trend in non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol.     

Sensitivity of a GCM Simulation of two Contrasting Indian Monsoons to SST Anomaly Distributions

Summary  One of the major forcings for the interannual variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon is the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ni?o years are characterized by a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and decreased monsoon rainfall over India leading to drought conditions. On the other hand, La Nina years are characterized by a positive SOI and generally good monsoon conditions over India. The monsoon ENSO relation is not a consistent one. The monsoons of 1991 and 1994 are good examples. The spring SOI was the same (−1.3) during both years. However, the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) was 91.4% of normal in 1991 and 110% in 1994. Though the SOI was same during the spring of both years, the spatial distribution of SSTs was different. In the present study, the impacts of different SST distributions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, on the monsoons of 1991 and 1994 have been examined, to assess the UKMO-unified model’s sensitivity of SST. It is observed that the simulated monsoon was much stronger in 1994 than in 1991, in terms of precipitation and circulation. The wind and the Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) simulated by the model are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses data, while precipitation is compared with Xie-Arkin merged rainfall data. Received November 26, 1998     

Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century

Five simple indices of surface temperature are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic and natural (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol) forcing on observed climate change during the twentieth century. These indices are based on spatial fingerprints of climate change and include the global-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the magnitude of the annual cycle in surface temperature over land, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient and the hemispheric temperature contrast. The indices contain information independent of variations in global-mean temperature for unforced climate variations and hence, considered collectively, they are more useful in an attribution study than global mean surface temperature alone. Observed linear trends over 1950–1999 in all the indices except the hemispheric temperature contrast are significantly larger than simulated changes due to internal variability or natural (solar and volcanic aerosol) forcings and are consistent with simulated changes due to anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcing. The combined, relative influence of these different forcings on observed trends during the twentieth century is investigated using linear regression of the observed and simulated responses of the indices. It is found that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the observed changes in surface temperature during 1946–1995. We found that early twentieth century changes (1896–1945) in global mean temperature can be explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing, as well as internal climate variability. Estimates of scaling factors that weight the amplitude of model simulated signals to corresponding observed changes using a combined normalized index are similar to those calculated using more complex, optimal fingerprint techniques.     

基于国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响

气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用“国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划”（Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP）中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区（31°N~45°N, 105°E~122°E）硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物（PM_2.5）浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM_2.5浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM_2.5浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。     

Impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosol direct and indirect effects on clouds and radiation in atmospheric GCM simulations of the 1930–1989 period

Among anthropogenic perturbations of the Earths atmosphere, greenhouse gases and aerosols are considered to have a major impact on the energy budget through their impact on radiative fluxes. We use three ensembles of simulations with the LMDZ general circulation model to investigate the radiative impacts of five species of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) and sulfate aerosols for the period 1930–1989. Since our focus is on the atmospheric changes in clouds and radiation from greenhouse gases and aerosols, we prescribed sea-surface temperatures in these simulations. Besides the direct impact on radiation through the greenhouse effect and scattering of sunlight by aerosols, strong radiative impacts of both perturbations through changes in cloudiness are analysed. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to a reduction of clouds at all atmospheric levels, thus decreasing the total greenhouse effect in the longwave spectrum and increasing absorption of solar radiation by reduction of cloud albedo. Increasing anthropogenic aerosol burden results in a decrease in high-level cloud cover through a cooling of the atmosphere, and an increase in the low-level cloud cover through the second aerosol indirect effect. The trend in low-level cloud lifetime due to aerosols is quantified to 0.5 min day^–1 decade^–1 for the simulation period. The different changes in high (decrease) and low-level (increase) cloudiness due to the response of cloud processes to aerosols impact shortwave radiation in a contrariwise manner, and the net effect is slightly positive. The total aerosol effect including the aerosol direct and first indirect effects remains strongly negative.     

Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

The climate changes that occured following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines on 15 June 1991 have been simulated using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model （AGCM）. The model was forced by a reconstructed spatial-time distribution of stratospheric aerosols intended for use in long climate simulations. Four statistical ensembles of the AGCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols over a period of 5 years following the eruption have been made, and the calculated fields have been compared to available observations. The model is able to reproduce some of the observed features after the eruption, such as the winter warming pattern that was observed over the Northern Hemisphere （NH） during the following winters. This pattern was caused by an enhanced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere that developed due to aerosol heating of the tropics. This in turn led to a strengthening of the polar vortex, which tends to modulate the planetary wave field in such a way that an anomalously positive Arctic Oscillation pattern is produced in the troposphere and at the surface, favouring warm conditions over the NH. During the summer, the model produced a more uniform cooling over the NH.     

Calculating Historical Contributions To Climate Change – Discussing The ‘Brazilian Proposal’

This paper discusses methodological issues relevant to the calculation of historical responsibility of countries for climate change (‘The Brazilian Proposal’). Using a simple representation of the climate system, the paper compares contributions to climate change using different indicators: current radiative forcing, current GWP-weighted emissions, radiative forcing from increased concentrations, cumulative GWP-weighted emissions, global-average surface-air temperature increase and two new indicators: weighted concentrations (analogue to GWP-weighted emissions) and integrated temperature increase. Only the last two indicators are at the same time ‘backward looking’ (take into account historical emissions), ‘backward discounting’ (early emissions weigh less, depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and ‘forward looking’ (future effects of the emissions are considered) and are comparable for all gases. Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions are simple to calculate but are not ‘backward discounting’. ‘Radiative forcing’ and ‘temperature increase’ are not ‘forward looking’. ‘Temperature increase’ discounts the emissions of the last decade due to the slow response of the climate system. It therefore gives low weight to regions that have recently significantly increased emissions. Results of the five different indicators are quite similar for large groups (but possibly not for individual countries): industrialized countries contributed around 60% to today’s climate change, developing countries around 40% (using the available data for fossil, industrial and forestry CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O). The paper further argues including non-linearities of the climate system or using a simplified linear system is a political choice. The paper also notes that results of contributions to climate change need to be interpreted with care: Countries that developed early benefited economically, but have high historical emission, and countries developing at a later period can profit from developments in other countries and are therefore likely to have a lower contribution to climate change.     

Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part II: A comparison between 1997/1998 El Niño and 1998/1999 La Niña events

Summary This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America during two extreme cases: the 1997–1998 El Ni?o and 1998–1999 La Ni?a. The results showed that both the models are successful in simulating the interannual variability of summer quasi-stationary circulation over South America. Both the models simulated the intensification of subtropical jet stream during the El Ni?o event, which favoured the blocking of transient systems and increased the precipitation over south Brazil. The models simulated the increase (decrease) of precipitation over north (west) Amazonia during the La Ni?a (El Ni?o) event. The upper level circulation is in agreement with the simulated distribution of precipitation. In general, the results showed that both the models are capable of capturing the main changes of the summer climate over South America during these two extreme cases and consequently they have potential to predict climate anomalies.